You know the monsoon is well and truly here when the form and future of three-year olds horses becomes the tittle-tattle of the racing circles. The rainy season has made its presence felt all throughout with an above normal rainfall across the country, and so has the 2016 born classic crop at various racing centres. We are about five weeks away from the first monsoon Derby of the year and the juveniles have started targeting various preparatory races in the build-up to the blue ribands of respective centres. The Deccan Fillies Championship Stakes, Gr.3 acts as a perfect preparation for The Deccan Derby, Gr.1, to be run on 2nd October. The race took shape in the early ‘70s and was first run in 1974, when a filly named Regency won the inaugural running in the hands of jockey S. Marshall. In 9 runnings since, some exceptional fillies have made this race a stepping-stone to bigger races, but none have managed to win the Deccan Derby after winning the Fillies. There is apparently no such study yet in equine science, which would help in proving the superiority of a coat colour over another, but just in case it matters here, 8 out of last 9 winners of this race were bay in colour. Last year’s winner Realmsoffantasy was an exception, being a chestnut.

Eight fillies have been accepted to run in this year’s edition with an average field rating of 50, which is about 8 points lower than that of the last 9 runnings. Interestingly, all eight runners are sired by different stallions. Last year, trainer S. Padmanabhan took the Mysore route with his classic colt Sir Cecil. This year, it’s Well Connected (Arazan – Guest Connections), a ‘crème de la crème’ filly, who has taken the Hyderabad route. Well Connected is unbeaten in 3 starts, winning a race each at 6 furlongs, 8 furlongs and 10 furlongs. She has shown speed and the ability to stay in the Derby, giving ample evidence of being a prime classic contender in the winter. After winning The Fillies Championship Stakes, Gr.1 quite comfortably, Well Connected was found wanting in the Derby, where she seemed to be in trouble at the turn. While taking nothing away from the filly, it was the jockey David Allan who played the lead role in hitting the wire first just in the nick of time, which otherwise seemed Impavid’s Derby about a furlong from the post.

Though in all likeliness, she is bound to start as a short-priced favorite, a change of season and track often invites plenty of skepticism. A closer look at her timings across three races shows some interesting patterns. She clocked 01:13.9 in her maiden start at 1200m, took 24.9 seconds for the extra 2 furlongs in Fillies championship and another 27.1 seconds for further 2 furlongs in the Derby. Although, the going and pace was different in each race, Well Connected took a little longer to complete the circuit on the Derby day. Three different jockeys have ridden her in each of her three wins and it is likely she will resume her partnership with A. Sandesh who rode her in her maiden start. Whether she can continue her charm in the monsoon is anybody’s guess.
 
For the Poonawalla Stud Farm has a tremendous reputation for producing champions, their stallion Arazan however has been a below-par performer. However, his 2016 crop has brought about an orbit-shift in his fortunes. In the (provisional) Leading Juvenile Sires list for the year (updated upto 20th August), Arazan is the highest stakes earner winning INR 52.8 million, with Air Support being the next best with INR 22.9 million. So far, he has had 56 starters with 23 individual winners winning 36 races. While Air Support is fast catching up, Arazan probably would still end up as the Leading Juvenile Sire by the year-end.

Thailand (Top Class – Immortal Story) finished 1-½ lengths behind Well Connected in the Fillies Championship Stakes, Gr.1 at Bangalore. She won her first start beating Missing You, who later won The Poonawalla Breeders Multi Million, Gr.1. In her subsequent 4 starts, Thailand has struggled to end things well, having finished 2nd and 3rd twice. A closer look at her running shows that she has been a victim of interferences quite often, though the long verdicts prove it wasn’t the reason why she failed to win. A full sister to Shivansh, the winner of The Calcutta Monsoon Derby Stakes, Gr.2, The Queen Elizabeth Cup, Gr.3 and The Calcutta St. Leger, Gr.3, Thailand seems well placed for long distance ventures.

Trainer Pesi Shroff won this race with Amelia in 2013 and has come to the party this year with the lightly raced filly Sasakwa (Kingda Ka – Jahanara). She started her career as late as June this year, finishing a good second to Rosina at Bangalore. Sasakwa took no time to stamp her authority in next run at Pune, winning by 10 lengths with astonishing ease. Even though it was a slow run race and she took 01:27.3 on a wet day for 7 furlongs in a maiden company, the half-sister to The Bangalore 1000 Guineas, Gr.2 winner Oomph has what it takes to upset a horse like Well Connected. After her last win, she was reported to have suffered an eye injury in both eyes (corneal opacity and ulcers).

The last time a Dashmesh Stud filly won this race was in 2011 – Practicallyperfect, sired by Sunday Doubt. Cape Kidnappers (Abbeyside – Tijuca Forest) is bred at Akal Sahai Stud, a subsidiary of the Dashmesh Group. Cape Kidnappers won The Nilgiris 1000 Guineas, Gr.3 in April, but otherwise has a lackluster record. She was about 5-½ lengths behind Well Connected in the Fillies Championship at Bangalore. To reverse those placings, she will need to fight every inch of the ground on Monday. In the Sir Cecil Youngsters Million, Cape Kidnappers conceding 4kgs and finished just ¾ lengths behind Thailand. Now that the scales are level, she can well be in a fight with Thailand for place money.

The rest of the four runners seem to have an outside chance. Roll Call (Whatsthescript – Knockenduff) won her first two starts in the winter, but her graph subsequently dipped. She was sent as a 10/8 on favorite in her last start but ended 9 lengths behind in a Class 3 field. Her recent track reports however suggest the presence of some return to form with ‘an excellent display’ about a week ago. Her half-sister Siobhan performed well at shorter distances and Roll Call too might follow that suit after this race.

Other than Corporate Jungle and Leitir Mor, Speaking Of Which is one of only three first season sires this year. Although Corporate Jungle has won more in terms of stakes, the Usha Stud newbie Speaking Of Which has a better AE index. Gift Of Grace (Speaking Of Which – Appeasing) won her first start by 8 3/4 lengths at 1200m, only to be humbled by Victorious Sermon by 5 1/2 lengths in her next start. Usha Stud has won this race recently with Aster Rose, Godspeed and Amelia. Another Usha bred filly Exclusive Art (Multidimensional – Botswana) hardly has anything to flaunt on form. Her full brothers Botswana Bolt and Masterofbalantrae excelled over 1400m. Artistryy (Sedgefield – Ballade Danon) is a maiden after 7 starts all of them at Hyderabad. Her dam has 3 offspring, who have just a solitary win across a combined 29 starts.

The obvious next target for Well Connected could well be The Deccan Derby, Gr.1 and it will be interesting to see if any colt can stop Well Connected in her quest for further classic glory. So, while Well Connected is expected to keep her unbeaten record intact by earning another bracket to complete a hat-trick of group race wins, the trio of Thailand, Sasakwa and Cape Kidnappers are surely expected to put up a fair fight.