There is a perception among many racegoers that the Pune Derby, Gr.1 is either a jinxed race or that it is a poor quality one which has not produced many good future winners. Like all general perceptions, there is some truth in it if not the whole truth. It is true that generally the average field rating of a Pune Derby, Gr.1 is much lower than that of the Deccan Derby, Gr.1 or the Mysore Derby, Gr.1. However, it has a better percentage of future Indian Derby, Gr.1 or Indian Turf Invitation Cup, Gr.1 winners.

There is a reason why the average field rating of the Pune Derby, Gr.1 is low. At the end of the winter seasons in April, the juvenile crops at all centres have had an equal opportunity and are almost at par. Three year-olds based at Bangalore get more chances in June and July, when there is hardly any racing elsewhere, to push up their ratings. When the monsoon seasons start, the leading three year-olds at Bangalore can compete in the good races at Hyderabad and Mysore, thus boosting up rating of those races. Over the years, majority of the the Western India trainers have been averse to taking their wards south in the summer. There have been exceptions, of course, like Aziz Mahmoud, R.R. Byramji, Bal Lagad and lately Pesi Shroff, to name a few. But by and large, the Western India three year-olds are idle in the summer months and are just beginning to work their way up when the Pune Derby comes around. Also, the outstation challenge is minimal at Pune and one major reason for this is that the Pune lead-up races -- F.D. Wadia Trophy, Gr.3, S.A. Poonawalla Million, Gr.3 and the Gen. Rajendrasinhji Trophy, Gr.3, till it was taken off the black-type list and run after the Pune Derby, Gr.1 -- offer less prize money than the main three year-old races at Hyderabad and Mysore. As such, those lead-up races fail in their aim of preparing Pune Derby, Gr.1 winners. In the past twelve years, only Quasar had won one of those three lead-up races. The race he won was the last time the Gen. Rajendrasinhji Trophy was run as a graded event !  

With an average field rating of only 50, this year's nine runners are way below what this race has brought to the post in the past. Those nine runners, between them, have raced only 34 times so far, just about four runs each. (Two years ago, Lady In Lace was having her 13th start !). So there is potential for improvement if not  previous performance.  The field includes an unbeaten colt (Sultan Suleiman), a course and distance winner (Moriseiki) while the lone filly Rhapsody has not been off-the-board in her three essays. There are two black type winners in Sultan Suleiman (S.A. Poonawalla Million, Gr.3) and Trouvaille (Shapoorji Pallonji Breeders' Juvenile Colts' Championship, Gr.3), both over a mile.

Sultain Suleiman (Arazan - Saffron Dancer) has won his two races over 1400 m. and 1600 m. He made his debut just six weeks ago and his unbeaten status will probably bestow the favourite's tag on him. He won his first start comfortably but Trouvaille (Surfrider - Highly Fashionable) was gaining ground on him towards the end of his second race. He is a half-brother to Star Presentation (Golconda Textiles Deccan Derby, Gr.1) and Acrider (Queen Elizabeth II Cup, Gr.3 over 2800 m.).  On his last start, three of his rivals on Sunday -- Trouvaille, Victorious Sermon and Prince Valiant -- finished behind him.  A slightly disconcerting aspect is that only three winners of S.A .Poonawalla Trophy have gone on to win the Pune Derby. His trainer, Altaf Hussain, saddled Knight Earnest in 1988 to win his first Classic.

Trouvaille did finish on purposefully in the S.A. Poonawalla Million, Gr.3 to make the winner earn his laurels. Six months earlier in Mumbai, S.K. Sunderji's ward had annexed the Shapoorji Pallonji Breeders' Juvenile Colts' Championship, Gr.3, effortlessly, also over a mile, by a little over four lengths where Moriseiki failed to get on board. With two good runs in graded races over a mile, Trouvaille could make his presence felt on Sunday though his sire is yet to throw a good winner beyond a mile and his three siblings have also seemed at their best short of a mile. His dam did win over 1800 m. and comes from a Classic Indian family with stamina. That of Birthday Girl -- his third dam --, Amazing Bay, Amazing Girl, Armagnac and others. With three previous winners of this race, his trainer is on par with Pesi Shroff as the most successful handler with runners on Sunday.

Rated  the same as Trouvaille is Victorious Sermon (Whatsthescript - Crystal).  On the strength of his two impressive wins over 1400 m. during the Bangalore campaign in summer, Victorious Sermon had the public backing in the S.A. Poonawalla Million Gr.3. He was level with Trouvaille entering the straight and both went in pursuit of Sultan Suleiman at the same time. While Trouvaille closed in on the winner, Victorious Sermon couldn't trouble the front two. It was his first run at Pune after a break of two months, he was giving 2 kgs. to the winner and he may have been a tad rusty. He will come on for that effort. His sire gets game, consistent runners and some of them like Germanicus and Watchmyscript have won good races over 2400 m. His dam is a Razeen mare from a staying family but in India so far that stamina has not been evident in the few runners it has had. 

The only other runner with a rating above the average field rating is Prince Valiant (Varenar - Alma Mater). Based in Hyderabad and unbeaten in his two runs, he came over for the S.A. Poonawalla Million, Gr.3, a race in which he was five lengths behind Sultan Suleiman. That was the first time he was running over a mile. His dam won the Radio Mirchi Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 while her other two wins were at shorter distances. Varenar gets plenty of winners, most of them are speedy types and none has so far won a Classic.

The main danger to Sultan Suleiman could well come from sparingly raced, low-rated unknown sources and of them Rhapsody (Speaking of Which - Analeah) stands out if only because she is trained by Pesi Shroff.  Over the years, Shroff has had only four fillies running in the Pune Deby, Gr.1. Phenomenale gave him his first winner of the race; Circle of Life and Maisha placed second and only Eloise failed to  make it on the board. Rhapsody won her last race at a mile well. Her dam was also trained by Shroff, was never off the board in her five starts but won only once. She is a full-sister to Prevalent Force who won the South India Derby, Gr.1 and Deccan Derby, Gr.1 but is now being raced at around a mile. This is essentially a family of milers.  Rhapsody's First Season Sire, Speaking of Which, did win once over 2000 m. That was the Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes, Gr.3 at Curragh in which he put nine lengths between himself and the runner-up. He had had a few runners over 2000 m. but no winner yet.

Adhiraj Singh Jodha will be saddling the facile course and distance winner Moriseiki (Sedgefield - Turk's Friend) on Sunday. Two years ago, Jodha had the favourite Pure Zinc -- also by Sedgefield -- as the favourite in the race won by Lady In Lace. Pure Zinc disappointed badly and now the trainer will have another opportunity, this time with no pressure because his charge will be less fancied. Justified won over 1800 m. towards the end of Mahalakshmi's winter season. He has had an easy outing over course and distance where Wizard of Stocks finished well ahead of him.  This full-brother to Keukenhoff and Secretive Force, both black-type winners over 2400 m., is bred to stay. His trainer, veteran Imtiaz Sait, has worked him lately with Raees, a proven stayer. He is rated the lowest of nine runners and faces a real stern test. Wizard of Stocks (Speaking of Which - Margarita Rita) had a decent Bangalore summer campaign and was given an easy outing by Shroff in Tasawwur's race over 2000 m. None of Margarita Rita's previous foals had won over a mile till Wizard of Stocks did so in Bangalore. Daddy's Pride (Oath - Cannon Jet) has two wins from four starts. He is a son of Epsom Derby winner Oath; another Epsom Derby winner, Grundy, figures along his tail female line. 

PAST THE POST

Four favourites and four top rated horses have won in the last ten years while two fillies have been successful. 'Got-abroads' have done well in this race with four winners but all the nine runners this year were conceived and born in India. Among the current jockeys, Suraj Narredu has the best record with three wins. (Thus far, Suraj Narredu has not been associated with any of the nine runners.) There are 13 Classics in India for the three year-olds over the summer and monsoon months. Ten have been run and six have fallen to favourites.

It was interesting to study the last ten winners of the Pune Derby and discover if they had anything in common. They had all raced over a mile or more in the six weeks preceding the Derby and had either won the race or finished within three lengths of the winner. All of them had a rating higher than the average field rating except two. The two exceptions were rated just one point below the average field rating and so, perhaps, they can be given grace marks. The 2009 winner Versaki (96) is the highest rated horse to win while Bullrun (52) is the lowest. The average rating of last ten winners is 72. This is not a magic key to finding the winner of Sunday's showpiece but it can distinguish between pretenders and contenders.