“What good is the warmth of summer, without the cold of winter to give it sweetness’’, said John Steinbeck. It is the peak of winter racing season in India and just like each year, the racing fraternity waits to hear the melody of best thoroughbreds’ hoof beats with that of the jingle of bells. With the various regional 1000 Guineas wrapped up; the focus now shifts to the 2000 Guineas. The Calcutta 2000 Guineas saw favorite Trafalgar playing up at the gates and getting withdrawn, eventually turning out to be a win for Tenno Sho in an absolute breathtaking finish! Down south, it’s the 47th running of The Bangalore 2000 Guineas, Gr.2, the field is tiny, but thereis plenty to talk about.

THE BIG PICTURE AND TREND ANALYSIS

The presence of an unbeaten colt has scared away most of his rivals and a field of just four will face the starter on Saturday. Three of the four are group winners and hence the average field rating is a high 73, which is fairly above the average of last 10 years (66). The average rating of the last 10 winners is 83, and only War Hammer is rated above that (90). In the last 10 years, no stallion has sired a winner in this race more than once. In the last six years, there have been sixdifferent jockeys and trainers winning the race. For Suraj Narredu though it has been a fruitful race, having won it four times since 2009. Favorites have had a fair run, winning on exactly half the occasions in the past decade. In the last 4 years, however, not a single favorite has obliged. Last year The Invader, who later won The Bangalore Derby too, won this race at 25/1. Geldings have won it 7 times in the last 10 years, but there are none in Saturday’s field.

THE CONTENDERS AND THE PRETENDERS

The top-rated and the obvious first choice is the unbeaten coltWar Hammer (Air Support – Soviet Lake). Bred at the Kunigal Stud Farm, War Hammer is a Dark-bay/Brown colt, unlike his sire who is a Bay. In his 5 starts, he has possibly done everything one could ask for, much like Sir Cecil last year, not as audaciously though. He has won by a combined margin of 18 lengths. He has a knack of settling off the pace and notably never takes the rail side in the straight. Among the graded races, he won The Bangalore Juvenile Million, Gr.3 in February beating Star Appearance, who recently won The South India 1000 Guineas, Gr.2. In summer, he got the measure of the best juveniles in the country, winning in an impressive 01:23.94. With an additional furlong to runon the next start, he squared up against Impavid in The Bangalore Colts’ Championship Stakes, Gr.1. Though he managed to win the race, the verdict was quite close as compared to his previous three wins. Now it might be because Impavid had the potential to run him close unlike the horses he faced earlier, but one cannot turn a blind eye to War Hammer’s stamina limitations. He comes from a family that was good upto 7 furlong or a mile. Nevertheless, most of Soviet Lake’soffspring were short on class, unlike War Hammer.

He suffered a setback after the Colts stakes, missing out on the summer Derby and pretty much most ofthe monsoon too. His fitness concerns were well addressed in the last run on 22nd November, where he thrashed a Class 1 field in 01:23.61. War Hammer again finds himself running at a mile. His connections and others in the know of things believe that at least 10 furlongs is within his compass. Suraj Narredu reportedly has been booked to ride him in the winter. War Hammer recently picked up “arytenoid chondropathy” that often causes respiratory obstruction and exercise intolerance. His next target could be one of the Derbies in the southern part of the country, and that will give a good indication of how well he shapes up for The Indian Derby, Gr.1.

‘Horses do not care how much you know, until they know how much you care’ – this phrase probably fits well with the fashionably bred chestnut colt Southern Ruler (Saamidd – Farha). Always touted as a classic horse with immense potential, he had to wait till his 9th start to shed his maiden tag, and that paid off in The Mysore Derby, Gr.1. In the absence of the best of the crop, Southern Ruler virtuallywrapped up the race with about 300m in balance, decimating the field by 7 3/4 lengths. In the last 10 years, 3 winners of this race had won The Mysore Derby on their previous start, much like Southern Ruler. He certainly did prefer the increase in distance and that augurs well for the Derby trip atleast, if not for the mile on Saturday. Southern Ruler though has had some notable issues. In his 1st run, his right rein snapped at the top of straight and he drifted out on the outer sand track. In rest of the races that followed, he almost never showed the intent to go all out and was well beaten each time. But as they say, a horse in winter should never be judged ‘too critically’ for what it did in summer. Since 20th November, 5 impressive track works have been reported, all with Irish pro Colm O’Donoghue, who will partner him for first time on Saturday.

Northern Alliance (Gusto – Allonia) has won 3 of hislast 4 starts. His last run was in The JWGC Mysore 2000 Guineas, Gr.3 where he won in a rather unusual manner, 5 lengths ahead of Southern Ruler who finished 5th. At the top of home straight, Northern Alliance drifted out alarmingly to the stand side and ran erratically despite the best efforts of the rider to keep a straight course. Now there’s an interesting question that comes up. If he had not drifted out, would he have won by a greater margin? The answer to that can be subjective, but surely needs some thought. Horses in India have a rail to guide them in training, and there is a tendency to shift in and find the rails in an actual race too. Thus, it’s important to distinguish between drifting under pressure and running erratically when not guided by a rail.Northern Alliance found himself at the back of the field and had to come wide round the bend, and since there was no opponent close by, he took the outer railing. So probably drifting out doesn’t matter much as long as the horse runs straight without breaking stride. The above question, being subjective, is open for interpretation.

He had a mock race on 30th November where he beat Impavid in a close finish. He has an equipment and shoe change for Saturday. Irish pro David Allan will partner him for the first time. Northern Alliance picked up phlebitis in July and had a guttural pouch infection last month. He will run after a gap of 66 days, and should he win on Saturday, it will be the longest gap for a winner of this race in last 11 years. Arjun Mangalorkar-trained On The Trot (Win Legend – Windunderherwings) was 2nd by 7 3/4 lengths in Northern Alliance’s maiden win. After a gap of 4 months, he returned to the track only to be beaten by Malwa by 6 lengths. He has been ‘stretched out well’ in a track work dated 8th December.

THE UNDERFOOT AND OVERHEAD CONDITIONS

With a 30% precipitation chance, scattered showers are forecastfor Saturday. The daytime temperature will be around 27°c. In a 3.4cm good going, Anjeze won the 1000 Guineas here in 01:36.08 on 30th November. It would be interesting to see War Hammer’s timing on Saturday, as he has clocked impressive timings at 7 furlongs previously.

THE DENOUEMENT

Unbeaten War Hammer is likely to continue his winning run with Suraj Narredu in the saddle. Southern Ruler appears on a high after Mysore Derby win and with Colm O’ Donoghue, hopes to upset War Hammer’s applecart. Mysore 2000 Guineas winner Northern Alliance with David Allan this time, is likely to give the other two a run for their money.