With the Indian classics barely a week away, there is already a sense of excitement in the air. The buzz of ‘who would outclass whom', ‘who would stay and who wouldn't' and the usual jibber-jabber is upping the ante across landscapes. As we know a race lasts for a very short span and the bigger part of the pleasure lies in the build-up, it becomes imperative to evaluate the national scenario. Prima facie, there appears no clear outlier for the first two Indian classics. While the speculation over War Hammer's stamina is rife, the duo of Well Connected and Impavid have already met their waterloo. Anjeze reportedly is unlikely to travel and will stay in Bangalore. Trafalgar from the east was withdrawn recently in what was supposed to be an easy race for him.From the west, the careers of Sultan Suleiman and Alexeiappeared to be on an upward trajectory and the connections were naturally highly optimistictill a relatively unknown commodity in Juliette dashed their hopes. Trouvaille and Missing You, both unraced this winter, have held their cards close.And if you thought that one of the above named would win an Indian classic, there is another set of aspiring raiders with modest success so far, who are travelling west andfancy their chances in Mumbai. As the famous author Roald Dahl said, “The greatest secrets are always hidden in the most unlikely places”so why not discuss some hidden gems, from the regional classics.

THE BIG PICTURE AND TREND ANALYSIS

It's a common knowledge that the competitiveness in racing has gone down of late and the average field ratings have mostly been lower than the average of the last few years. The average rating of the field in the Golconda 2000 Guineas, Gr.2is 66 however, it is almost the same as that of the past decade. Only Consigliori (88) is rated higher than the average winner rating of last 10 years (75). Four top-rated horses have won over the same period. The last three winners – Corfe Castle, Prevalent Force and Germanicus, all were favorites. Only King Charles (2015-16) and Germanicus (2016-17) completedthe Golconda 2000 Guineas – Derby double. That is probably because the Golconda Derby is usually held just a week before The Indian Derby, so a lot of good horses give the former a miss. However, the Golconda Derby this time will be 2 weeks prior so one can expect a departure from previous trends.

THE CONTENDERS AND THE PRETENDERS

The field of six runners appears perplexing at first sight, and one may find it tough to figure out who is a contender and who is a pretender. Almost each of them has apparent weaknesses and obvious strengths. Highest-rated Consigliori (Air Support – Caprese) is coming off a win in The Deccan Derby, Gr.1.The race was supposed to be a direct contest between Well Connected and Impavid, but Consigliori stole the limelight. He took a good jump and made every pole a winning one, cantering home comfortably in 02:07.91, becoming the first local horse to win the Derby in 10 years. Consigliori's forte is surely his style of running,up with the pace he readily assumes a front running role each time. In the Derby, the favorites were off the bridle and left a lot for too late. Trainer LVR Deshmukh also acknowledged that Consigliori was much fitter after his Bangalore run and better off without blinkers. Early in his career, he showed no signs of being a classic contender, which was why his last win, surprised many.He won the race at 40/1 with a rookie in the saddle but will now have the services of David Allan.

The Kunigal Stud Farm is having an excellent year with their stallion Air Support and there is every likelihood that he may sire three 2000 Guineas winners within a week, with War Hammer, Consigliori and Impavid. A half-brother to Admiralty and Captain Morgan (Stayers'Cup, Gr.1), Consigliori is expected to relish longer trips. At a mile however, it won't be a cakewalk.

Western India based trainer NarendraLagad usually doesn't travel his horses outside of Mumbai/Pune, but since he has takenMajestic Warrior (LeitirMor – One Magic Moment) to Hyderabad, the horse surely warrants consideration. The only gelding and the only non-bay in the field, Majestic Warrior is rated only 58 however,one shouldn't read too much into the ratings, particularly that of 3-year-olds, as it is often a by-product of the handicapper's bias which is natural. Majestic Warrior has lived up to his name in strong terms, finishing in the money 8 times out of 9. The connections were sanguine in the Pune season, where he ran 7 races within 15 weeks that is almost once every fortnight! He isactually better than his rating reflects and Majestic Warrior has often been let down because of poor riding. In the last Mumbai season, an enquiry was initiated into the riding of Dashrath Singh and his trainer had also lodged complaint. His dam has had 7 foals, with Majestic Warrior being the latest andthe first by LeitirMor. His siblings excelled over 5f and 6f. Notably, he is a front-runner and thus is likely to match pace with Consigliori right from the word go.

My Journey (Tazahum – Berry Girl) is unbeaten in 3 starts so far. Starting off in a maiden race he won by 4 ½ lengths and later thrashed a Class 4 field by 9 lengths on tight reins. His third win, a million in Chennai was the most impressive, not for the verdict but for the field he defeated. He won it by 2 ¾ lengths in an impressive 01:24.76 for 7f. My Journey doesn't appear like an outright stayer, so there is every likelihood that he willbe ‘stretched'over the mile in the2000 Guineas.He is the first foal out of Berry Girl, who raced in USA upto 8f, but placed just once in 7 starts. The progeny of Tazahum have till date won only twoGroup races – one each with Mr. Handsome and Saving Grace.Jockey SurajNarredu having won the 1000 Guineas with Paso Robles stands a good chance to do a Golconda Guineas double on Monday, a first for any jockey since 2011. Stable-mate VijaysSingham (LeitirMor – Zarandja) won his first start as a 2-year-old most impressively. He ran his first fourraces at cramped odds, winning three of them. In his last start, carrying 61kgs he was a length shy of Lightning Bolt giving him 5kg. On 10th December he did some goodtrackworkin company with My Journey. Trainer Laxman Singh last won this race with King Charles in 2016.

Victory Parade (Top Class – Harmonica) has won twice in 10 starts, but has been on board on all occasions except one. One striking observation is that he has crossed paths with Consigliori thrice, finishing ahead of him each time. Consigliori however, is now a more mature horse, and it will be a tall order for Victory Parade to repeat anything like that on Monday.

Premier Action (Green Coast – Hunting Hawk)finished in the top-2 in his last 6 starts. On his last run, he was one length behind Lightning Bolt and a neck ahead of VijaysSinghamhowever in receipt of 2kg from the latter so he is almost on par withVijaysSingham. Green Coast, who died in 2017, stood at The AB Stud in Punjab where he sired 121 horses but only oneGroup winner. Trainer LD Silva won this race last year with Corfe Castle.

UNDERFOOT AND OVERHEAD CONDITIONS

The weather on Monday is likely to stay mostly sunny with a minisculechance of precipitation and 66% humidity. The daytime temperature would be around 29°c. Paso Robles won the 1000 Guineas in 01:39.05 on a 3.6cm soft going. But due to the presence of some speedy types in the field, the winner might clock less than that on Monday.

THE DENOUEMENT

The Deccan Derby, Gr.1 winner Consigliori will have his task cutout to prove that his last win was no fluke. Irrespective of the result, he would continue to be a flag-bearer for Air Support in the winter. Unbeaten My Journey's rider SurajNarredu is on a high after his historic 2000th win, and he's unlikely to take a breather anytime soon. Outstation challenger Majestic Warrior is likely to set a hot pace. In a field such as this, tacticallyriding off-the-pace can be detrimental and sothe Golconda 2000 Guineas could well be decided on how each of these deals with the pace.