After VijaysSingham’s surprise victory in The Golconda 2000 Guineas, Gr.2, a total of 7 regional winter classics are done and dusted. The past three-and-a-half weeks have been quite eventful. In Calcutta, Izzy won handsomely, making her a strong contender for the Oaks, while Tenno Sho just managed to get the better of Jaivant at the post in the absence of Trafalgar. Down south in Bangalore, Anjeze reclaimed the ground she had lost in the last few races while the juggernaut of War Hammer continues to roll. In Hyderabad, Paso Robles obliged as a favorite, whereas Vijays Singham surprised one and all, winning from an unlikely position. In Chennai, Star Appearance justified her top billing and looks set for more classic success.

THE BIG PICTURE AND TREND ANALYSIS

The South India 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 is slated to run this Thursday, and that would complete the set of 8 regional Guineas, before we head into The Indian 1000 and 2000 Guineas, to be run on back-to-back days this weekend. This will be one of those years, where not a single winner from the 8 regional Guineas would compete in the Indian Guineas, to be run in Mumbai. This indicates that currently there is no clear favorite going forward. Also, this year no filly could win any of the 2000 Guineas, unlike last year where Adjudicate (Calcutta) and Arabia (Chennai) won against the colts.

Since the resumption of ‘competitive’ racing at Chennai, the last three runnings of The South India 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 were won by outstation challengers Arabia, Tutankhamun, and Kingoftheworld and that is exactly what happens when one stops importing competition. Interestingly, all the three recent winners had lost their previous start. The average field rating for the last 3 years is 60, about 2 points higher than Thursday’s. The average winner rating is 68 and this year only Impavid and Glorious Destiny are rated above that. 

THE CONTENDERS AND THE PRETENDERS

“The spirited horse which will try to win the race of its own accord, will run even faster if encouraged”, said the Roman poet Ovid. The dark-bay ‘spirited’ colt Impavid (Air Support – Polenta) is one such horse, who is yet to realize his true potential. Impavid started with 3 splendid victories, becoming one of the favorites for the Bangalore classics in no time. However, in the four races that followed, Impavid was a shadow of former self. To begin with, in The Colts Championship Stakes, Gr.1 at Bangalore, Impavid led until War Hammer pipped him at the post. In The Derby, it looked like his moment of glory had come until Well Connected edged him out for the Derby sash. After winning The Deccan Colts Championship Stakes, Gr.3, the connections had high hopes for The Deccan Derby, Gr.1, but strange new riding tactics seemingly spoilt his party.

But there are certain points that Impavid’s followers might want to take a look at. He settled at the back of the field in The Deccan Derby, unlike his previous runs, and that certainly didn’t help. He probably doesn’t possess the turn of foot like War Hammer does, and it so appears that he is better off running up with the pace. Impavid has run 6 of 7 starts at a mile or above and that perhaps means his connections will target him for longer trips. A stallion’s pet distance is useful in determining the distance aptitude of his progeny, and in the case of Air Support, we are still looking at the trend. Impavid’s half-brother Captain Cook won The Calcutta Monsoon Derby Stakes, Gr.2, but that was his only win beyond a mile. The 2000 Guineas at Chennai might well be Impavid’s final chance to ‘redeem’ himself before the big classics come his way. In the interim he has been kept in a fine condition as indicated by his track work.

Hyderabad-based Lightning Bolt (Excellent Art – Shamaal) has won 3 of 4 starts and is improving with every run. In the Bangalore Colts Championship, he was 6 lengths behind Impavid. On his last start though, he won in a Class 3 field, beating Vijays Singham by 1 length. His half-brother Field Marshal won the Mysore 2000 Guineas, Gr.3, Mysore Derby, Gr.1 and Bangalore 2000 Guineas, Gr.2. Lightning Bolt’s recent trackwork is no less impressive than his performance, where he raised the ‘outstanding gallop’ of the day!

Barring Well Connected, champion classic trainer S Padmanabhan has had modest success with his current 3-year-old crop, but he can never be written off, and has come to Chennai this year with Roman Senator (Multidimensional – Ave Maria). He started his campaign poorly last winter, losing his first two starts, but gathered himself quite well after that. He finished a close third to Kirkwood in June and then won his next start in July. On 29th November, he registered a convincing victory by 2 1/4 lengths in a Class 3 race. Roman Senator is one contender who is peaking at the right time and has had worked well in the mornings with David Allan.

Alexander Burnes (Phoenix Tower – Allied Cause) is the only gelding in the field. In his maiden start, he finished 5 1/2 lengths behind War Hammer. He won on his last start on 22nd November but was found lacking when the stakes were raised in the Group races. Glorious Destiny (Saamidd – Perpetual Glory) is rated at 83, and is probably the only local contender who may challenge the four horses discussed above. He started his career well in Chennai last winter but underperformed in Mysore and Ooty. This season, he has picked up form again and will be the one to watch out for. He has the experience of 15 starts, but the one on Thursday will only be his 2nd attempt at a mile. Satish Narredu-trained Sir Supremo (Speaking Of Which – Cool Mover) has targeted many of the classics but achieved nothing worthy of mention. He shed his maiden tag only on his eighth and most recent start though before that, he had run in close to several good horses including War Hammer, Impavid and Cosmic Ray. Alexandre Dumas (Kingda Ka – Napoleons Mistress) finished 2nd to Roman Senator by 2 1/4 lengths on his last start.

Local trainer R Foley has 3 runners in the race and Royal Chieftain (Saamidd – Reina De Mexico) looks the best amongst the three. He has raced 12 times and is coming off a fine victory at 1800m. Comanche Brave (Varenar – Yemen Desert) won his last start by 3 1/4 lengths in a Class 4 field. Otus (Kingda Ka – Golden Bright) is still a maiden after 7 starts. Undeniable (Varenar – Aliwiyya) has won once in 8 runs and is a half- brother to Chef d’oeuvre.

UNDERFOOT AND OVERHEAD CONDITIONS

The weather on Thursday is likely to be partly cloudy with a daytime temperature of 29°c. Chennai is relatively less humid at this time of the year and humidity is likely to be around 70%. Star Appearance won The 1000 Guineas here in a relatively slower timing of 01:42.42 with the penetrometer reading 3.9cm and good going; however, the slowest of allseven winter classics run so far.

THE DENOUEMENT

The South India 2000 Guineas is possibly one final chance for Impavid to tick the unanswered boxes before he heads west for the ultimate test. S Padmanabhan, who has had little classic success this winter will look to make amends with Roman Senator. Lightning Bolt has caught the eye in recent trials and is the one in form Glorious Destiny and Alexander Burnes can be a strong threat to the three above named horses.