Like the confused political picture that was witnessed recently in Mumbai, the scenario for the first Indian Classic of the year at Mahalakshmi is quite muddled and murky. It required a floor test to sort out the political impasse and this Sunday eleven fillies will face their acid test on the track. As of now, at least eight of them have conflicting and contrasting claims and it would not be a surprise to see any one of those cross the wire ahead of the others. A strong contingent of Bangalore divas has arrived to challenge the belles of Bollywood. The southern quartet boasts of higher ratings than any local contender.

Well Connected (Arazan - Guest Connections) is the highest rated runner but the political parallel has taught us that winning the highest number seats does not ensure the right to rule. The rating of the filly has since been revised and its now the second highest. A winner of three Classics from her first four starts, she has fallen from grace in her last two essays. The spectacular finishing burst which gave her thrilling victories in Kingfisher Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 and  Deccan Fillies' Championship Stakes, Gr.3 has been conspicuously absent in the Deccan Derby, Gr.1 and Bangalore 1000 Guineas, Gr.2. It could well be that she reached her peak far too soon or that she is more at home when there is a bit of give in the ground. It takes a very good horse to win Bangalore's summer Derby and most of them go on to win another Classic in the winter. Snow Dew and Set Alight, both winners of the Bangalore Fillies' Trial Stakes, Gr.1 and Kingfisher Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 like Well Connected, added the Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 to their tally. The point to ponder is whether  her astute trainer -- he last won this race 21 years ago with his own filly Running Flame -- has had enough time to ginger her up since her last defeat . Incidentally, Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 is the only Indian Classic David Allan has yet not won.

Well Connected's last two wins were nail-biters with the filly securing the verdict in the very last stride. It can't always be timed so perfectly. Gift of Grace (Speaking of Which - Appeasing) turned the tables on Well Connected last time out. After winning spectacularly on her debut at the end of June, Gift of Grace has run second four times in a row. Winning is a habit and the filly is yet to acquire it. In three of her last four races, she had the lead at the top of the straight which she couldn't maintain to the winning post. Similar tactics on Mahalakshmi's long straight are fraught with peril. By a first season sire whose attributes are still nascent, trained by a young handler and from a line that has yet to produce a Classic winner for Usha Stud, it is hard to be gung-ho about her prospects though her consistency and gameness demand the utmost respect. Gift of Grace and Sunrise Ruby -- not declared to start -- were supplemented in mid-November before their last starts. .

Cosmic Ray (Burden of Proof - Corsican Gal), like Gift of Grace, has raced five times but has a win more. She won the Raghulal Mysore 1000 Guineas, Gr.3 but just missed the board in the Derbies at Bangalore and Mysore, the distance being against her. Before the latter race, she was kept in light work and her trainer came in for some adverse comments from the sofa-set critics. The same trainer, Sulaiman Attaollahi, won the Bangalore 1000 Guineas, Gr.2 with Anjeze who was also tenderly prepared. Every horse demands a different type of care and preparation and there is no better person to decide on that than the trainer. For the record, Cosmic Ray has been worked more 'visibly' prior to this race. She was beaten by Well Connected in the Bangalore Fillies' Championship Stakes, Gr.1 but has finished ahead of Thailand and Bostonia (third in South India 1000 Guineas, Gr.2). The URBB racing operation is much more low key of late but that makes its Classic candidates even more noteworthy. 

It was in Mumbai that Thailand (Top Class - Immortal Story) and Royal Crystal started their racing careers. They spent the summer and the monsoons down south but are back to Mahalakshmi for the winter Classics. Like Gift of Grace, Thailand has not won since her debut. That was  almost a year ago. She hasn't been off-the board in her six subsequent starts in one of which she was only a short-head and a quarter length behind Well Connected and Gift of Grace at Malakpet. Out of a half-sister to Versaki, she hasn't raced since finishing a far-off fourth to Cosmic Ray at Mysore. She has been working regularly over the last two weeks but only the race will reveal how sharp she is.

Impressive as the credentials of the southern challengers are, the trends of the last decade are not particularly encouraging. One of them could well start as the favourite and only two favourites have won in the last ten years. The strike rates of  successful outstation fillies and top-rated contenders are only marginally better standing at 3 and 4 respectively. The most telling fact is that all the ten recent winners of this race had won their last starts whereas all the four invading fillies were beaten last time out. Trends, though, are as fickle as fashion.

Five of the last ten winners of this race have been led-in by Pesi Shroff and he has three seconds and a third in the other five. Clearly, he is a major factor. There is no set pattern among his winners -- each horse is different, remember ? -- as a quick glance shows. Jacqueline won the Morvi as a prelude to the One Thousand; Alma Mater scored on her first run at Mahalakshmi; Mariinsky had bagged the Bangalore 1000 Guineas, Gr.2 while Myrtlewood and Mrs Patmore had warmed up in handicap company, both winning their races. The common factor among them was that they were all winners of their last start going into the race. That counts against Hunt For Gold (Leitir Mor - Pleasure Hunt)  -- one of the three fillies that Shroff will saddle on Saturday -- whose last win came way back in February. Clearly, she has not lived up to her earlier promise. Her first season sire had his first Classic winner on Monday at Malakpet and her dam was a winner of Nanoli Stud Indian Oaks, Gr.1. Hunt For Gold is bred on similar lines as several of Multidimensional's Classic winners, being by a grandson of Danehill out of a Razeen mare. Multidimensional's own daughters Mirabilis (out of You are My Miracle) and Armaity (out of the dual Classic winning Razeen mare Hills and Stars) are Shroff's other runners. Mirabilis is a full-sister to Your Royal Majesty who had a long and successful career with Shroff, just below the top class. A dozen of his 15 wins came over 1400 m. at which he was a 'specialist'. He did win twice over a mile but that was as a seven year-old.

Armaity, the lowest rated of eleven fillies, could well have become a course and distance runner last Sunday but she was not given too hard a race, perhaps, with this engagement in mind. Bred to stay, she has raced only thrice so far and her lone win was over a sprint. As raw as Armaity is Questina (Phoenix Tower - Meadowlark). Like Armaity, her one win from three starts came over a sprint. They are inexperienced but last year La Rondine won this race on only her second start having scored on debut over 1200 m.

The highest rated of local fillies is Missing You (Arazan - Change of Luck), the winner of Poonawalla Breeders' Multi-Million, Gr.1 back in February. She hasn't quite enhanced her stock since then and her going down rather tamely to five year-old Pure Zinc last time out would have lost her some fans. Her grandam Stunning produced five Gr.1 Classic winners, including Change of Luck, and she has the pedigree for the job at hand. Three of the last ten winners of the PBMM have won a Classic subsequently so that race carries unjustified stigma. The same is true of the Maharaja of Morvi Trophy. Unfairly considered a hoodoo race, it has two Guineas winners in the last ten years. The Morvi was won very stylishly this year by Juliette (Musketier - Gimmesumsugar), running 279 days after having finished fourth, within three lengths of the winner Missing You, in the PBMM.  A small-made filly, she is the only 'got-abroad' in the field. There have been three 'got-abroad' winners of the race in the last ten years. Gimmesumsugar, a two-time winner in Canada, was picked up for a mere $ 4,700 at Keeneland's November 2015 Sale.  Her pedigree is adequate even if not eye catching and Sohna Stud, where Juliette was foaled, has had its best results with foals conceived elsewhere. Juliette has just started to show signs of turning grey. Thumbelina was the last grey winner of the Indian 1000 Guineas back in 1992.  
 
That leaves only Kariega (Kingda Ka - Smoke Ring). She missed the board in the Golconda 1000 Guineas, Gr.2 on her last start but wasn't too far behind the winner. Her half-sister Sakura -- by the sprinter Mayson --  won her first black-type race only at the start of her third year's campaign recently and Kariega may also improve with age and distance.

The average field rating of 61 is better than that of any of the regional "1000s" but three points below the norm. Four previous Gr.1 winning fillies added the Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 to the list of their achievements but an equal number failed to do so.

PAST THE POST

There is a perception that terms races, especially Classics, are a graveyard for punters. That, statistically, is not quite true. Favourites scored at just under 50% in the Classics of 2018-19 and have claimed four of the eight Guineas (50%) run so far this year. That is well above the normal rate of about 35% for all races. The perception probably owes to the fact that Classics draw a much greater attention and the failure of a favourite becomes more glaring. 

One can do all the calculations involving weights and timings, adjust them for gradients and going and yet not find the winner. That is simply because horses are not machines. The most important attribute for a winner is the fitness on the day and it is most difficult to judge that. A recent good run is a fair pointer but is not a 'must'. The Guineas victories of Izzy, Anjeze, Star Appearance, Impavid and Tenno Sho -- which came with a gap ranging from 54 days to 131 days to their previous starts, in all of which they were beaten --  show that. What happens to a horse in the week before the race is very significant. Not eating up, a touch of colic, some wheezing and a bit of cough can affect optimum performance. Such small ailments are kept a guarded secret and the public at large is not privy to the information. Then again, horses do win in spite of them.

Assessing a horse's fitness after a cursory look in the paddock is more easily said than done. There are umpteen people who claim to have mastered that difficult art but only a few genuine experts. The legendary trainer R.R. Byramji once said that it is not enough to judge a horse's condition on a given day. It is more important, he said, to measure it against his condition when he last ran. That requires a photographic memory of the highest order.