BLAST FROM THE PAST

The Derby might be the blue riband of any racing season, but few would know that the first-ever ‘’Oaks’’ was run a year before the first-ever ‘’Derby”. The Oaks Stakes was first to run in 1779 at Epsom Downs and was consequently steeped in the history and prestige as the harbinger to numerous Oaks races around the globe. The race is believed to have been named after the nearby residence of the 12th Earl of Derby. Also known as ‘The Ladies Derby’, The Oaks features the best of the fairer sex and serves as a perfect prelude to The Derby. The first-ever Bangalore Oaks was won by a filly named Air Hostess in 1974.

THE BIG PICTURE AND TREND ANALYSIS

More often than not, The Oaks is the first time a horse forays at a mile and a half and keeping the Derby in mind, it gives a fair idea of its preparedness over the distance. Both the regional Oaks this year have gone to the Usha stud-bred fillies – Rosina and Supreme Fragrance. Last year too, Multidimensional maintained his reputation, with his progeny winning 4 of the 5 Oaks with Oriana (Calcutta), New Creation (Chennai), Mea Culpa (Bangalore) and Roberta (Mumbai). Meanwhile, Speaking Of Which seems to be coming into his own now with his progeny winning two classics last month within the space of just over one hour.

The renewals at Calcutta and Chennai had an average field rating of 51 and 59 respectively, but the one here is a mere 46, about 16 points below the average of the last decade. It comes as a surprise, especially for a centre like Bangalore. A possible reason for this below-par field might be the presence of Anjeze, who is the only filly with a rating higher than the average rating of the last ten winners (71). Local girls have dominated it in the recent past, with only one outstation challenger winning in the last 10 years – Athens (2015). Though only 3 favorites have won over the same period, the rest of the winners were not at long odds, and otherwise only 2 top-rated fillies could win it. It is interesting to note that among the last 10 winners, only Southern Bay and Kangra won a graded race after winning The Oaks here. Interestingly, the last 10 winners were all bay.

THE CONTENDERS AND THE PRETENDERS

Among the 9 runners accepted for The Bangalore Oaks, Gr.2, there are 4 repeaters from the 1000 Guineas field. Anjeze (Win Legend – Angelique) did everything right in her first three starts but failed to make an impact in the summer classics. The soft ground in the summer was possibly what did her inand kept her from achieving a classic bracket. However, after a lay-off of four months, she displayed the zeal of a ‘heavyweight’, beating Gift Of Grace by a neck. Her win became more special when Gift Of Grace won The Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 three weeks later. The summer Derby winner Well Connected finished further behind and hence Anjeze’s win made a much more pronounced statement. Her full-sister Angel Dust too won The 1000 Guineas but failed to put it across New Alliance in The Oaks. So, Anjeze will set out to complete the unfinished ‘family’ business, quite literally. Reportedly, she is unlikely to travel outside the garden city and that means The Bangalore Derby on the Republic Day will be a direct clash between her and War Hammer. Distance should not be a problem as there is ample evidence of stamina in the blood. David Egan, who was astride Gift Of Grace here in The Guineas, will ride Anjeze for the first time. For the record, Southern Bay was the last filly to do a Bangalore Guineas-Oaks double (2011-12).

The adage - “You don’t put assets on the battlefield that are not battle-ready” might be true for warfare, but isn’t always so in horse racing. In classics, often the most fancied horses also go down, perhaps because either they were not prepared for the race or simply because it wasn’t their intended target. It is thus up to the racegoer’s wisdom to decide how bright the prospects of his fancied horse are. And all this becomes much more applicable to the wards of Pesi Shroff, who has had little success in the classics of late. Rhapsody (Speaking Of Which – Analeah) has been smartly prepared for the long-distance classics.

On her last start in December, Rhapsody showed abundant signs of maturity, winning a Class 3 handicap over 1800m. Her dam Analeah was out of Prevalence, who needs no introduction for the ones looking for stamina. Usha stud has won both the regional Oaks this year and there is no reason why there can’t be a third on Saturday. Rhapsody has been in Bangalore for some time now and has had displayed some good work during morning track. She has had a change of shoes for Saturday and will be ridden by Leigh Roche.

From the same stable, Seventh Mile (Phoenix Tower – Gobelin) is a winner of 1 start out of 5. She is by a sire not known for siring winners at this distance but the filly herself has shown a liking for long trips. She won her maiden race in Pune by 4 1/2 lengths with a lot in hand. Though she lost her last start at the post but did the front running for most part of the race. Her dam Gobelin was a surprise winner of The Pune Derby in 2007. While her full-sister Trance did run up to 2000m but never won beyond 7f. Now since the field is below par, the class of Seventh Mile will have a bigger say than the stamina, as the former trait can carry her through. Notably, Bangalore is the only centre where trainer Pesi Shroff hasn’t won an Oaks.

S. Padmanabhan-trained Rorito (Burden Of Proof – Sugarbird) won her maiden on her last start in a class 4 handicap. Her full-brother Spreadeagle won The Deccan Derby, Gr.1 and narrowly missed out on The Mysore Derby, Gr.1 to Bold Majesty. Spreadeagle was an ‘outlier’ son of Sugarbird, whose other foals did not run at long distances. Rorito’s damsire Entrepreneur won The 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and was the champion 3-year-old miler in Europe in 1997. Crack Of Dawn (Kingda Ka – Jingle Bells) last ran on 28 Dec, where she finished 2nd in a 2000m handicap. Jockey A Sandesh, who is nearing 1000 career wins, will take the ride.

Queen Regnant (Dean’s Kitten – Aim To Achieve) is winless from 5 starts and will find it tough to stay. She was 15 lengths behind Anjeze in The 1000 Guineas. Dean’s Kitten has sired only one group winner at this distance – Aggregated. Arjun Mangalorkar-trained Star And Garter (Multidimensional – Allspice) has run in competitive company and is coming off a win in a Class 4 handicap and she has been impressive in morning track work. Speedster (Pinson – Tinkerbell) has 2 wins out of 9 starts and ran 2nd to Knight Templar in her last race. Glorious Dancer (Arazan – Glorious Breaker) might not the have credentials to match the class of the rest but can stay the trip.

UNDERFOOT AND OVERHEAD CONDITIONS

The sun has been in vacation mode at Bangalore this winter, and that should stay so for Saturday. Precipitation chance is 10% and humidity 63%. The daytime temperature will stay around 29°c. Out of 66 races this season, a high percentage of 34 favorites have obliged (52%).

THE DENOUEMENT

The 1000 Guineas winner Anjeze looks set to do a ’ladies classic double’ on Saturday. A win here will put her in right earnest against War Hammer for The Derby. The western India filly Rhapsody may be peaking at the right time and will test the class and stamina of Anjeze till the post. Seventh Mile isn’t exactly bred for this distance but can match strides with the best. Rorito and Star And Garter are expected to fill the board.