THE BIG PICTURE

The Golconda Oaks, Gr.2 is the last of the four regional Oaks before the classic extravaganza heads west for The Indian Oaks, Gr.1. The first-ever Golconda Oaks, run in 1980 was a match-race between two fillies named Nicolette and Eternity, where the former won comfortably by 4 lengths in 02:46.40. Those were the days when such slow timings were the norm to complete the mile and a half trip. Nicolette later also went on to win the first-ever Golconda Derby.

PAST DECADE IN NUMBERS

The recent renewals of this race have thrown up some astonishing trends. The most notable of them is that in the past decade, only one local filly – Veronese, could win the race, the other 9 were outstation challengers. So, the ladies’ Derby here has been a raiders’ paradise. The last 4 of 5 winners were got-abroads and all four were bred at Nanoli Stud – Laurita (by Ghostzapper), Heather (by Champs Elysees), Veronese (by Bushranger) and Bluebell (by Paco Boy). The average field rating of the past 10 renewals has been about 60 and the one on Monday is about 57. The average rating of the last 10 winners is about 61 and only Paso Robles and Cape Kidnappers are rated above that. In the decade gone by, only one favorite – Bluebell romped home successfully. None of the last 10 winners were top-rated. It is worth mentioning that the Golconda Derby hasn’t been a popular target for Malakpet’s Oaks winners. Only one filly – Veronese subsequently contested the Derby here, finishing 2nd to Germanicus in 2017. Now that the Derby has been advanced by a week, that trend is expected to get disturbed.

THE CONTENDERS AND THE PRETENDERS

The first classic of the season witnessed Paso Robles (Arazan – Mawaheb) completing a hat-trick of victories with a win in The 1000 Guineas. Each year we come across horses who punch above their weight, and this year Paso Robles has done pretty much the same. In each run since the monsoon, she has shown clear pairs of heels, imprinting her superiority with each win. Often from the performance in the mile classics, one can make out if the horse will stay the longer trips, and Paso Robles has given a positive indication of that. She has shown a liking to run with the pace, just like her last race where she thwarted the challenge of Cape Kidnappers, who never looked like improving in the straight. Paso Robles’ damsire Nashwansecured a ‘unique four-timer’ in England, winning The 2000 Guineas, The Derby, The Eclipse Stakes, and The King George Stakes, all Group 1s. On the contrary, none of Mawaheb’seight foals have won beyond a mile. Paso Robles has a DI of 2.33. 

Hyderabad of late has been a happy hunting ground for the Poonawalla Stud Farm. Last year all the major classics at Hyderabad, except The Oaks were won by horses sired by Excellent Art – Realmsoffantasy, Star Superior, Corfe Castle, and Indian Pharaoh. This year too it has thus far been Paso Robles (by Arazan) and VijaysSingham (by Leitir Mor) winning it for them. For the records, Attractress was the last filly to do a Golconda Guineas-Derby double in 2009-10.

In winning the Nilgiris 1000 Guineas, Gr.3, Cape Kidnappers (Abbeyside – Tijuca Forest) showed a lot of substance but has since lost 7 races. In The Deccan Derby, Gr.1, she was 6 ¼ lengths behind Consigliori. In the Guineas here, she was about 1 length behind Paso Robles at the top of straight but never improved from that position. When the ‘lead’ eventually becomes the ‘verdict’, it puts serious questions on the staying aptitude. She has a DI of 2.71. Akal-Sahai stud stationed stallion Abbeyside is yet to sire a Group winner at this distance. Her damsire Carnival Dancer (also stood at Dashmesh) won three graded races over 2000m in Europe. No trackwork has been reported for Cape Kidnappers after the Guineas run.

Named after the mythological Egyptian goddess, Nekhbet (Kingda Ka – Nawazish) is the only outstation challenger in the field. As mentioned earlier, this race has been a raider’s paradise and this Pesi Shroff-trained filly thus stands on a ‘high-ground’. It will be her first run outside western India and also the first beyond a mile. Nekhbet has shown a liking for running off-the-pace and apparently prefers a slow pace. She earned her maiden bracket in Pune, where she displayed an eye-catching gallop to win the race literally from the last position. Even though sectional timings are not available in India, a rough count suggests that Nekhbet covered the last 400m in just about less than 23 seconds. In her next start in The Gen. RajendrasinhjiMillion, she was left with too much to do and could hardly catch up, finishing last about 13 lengths behind Missing You. On a different track at Mumbai though, Nekhbet changed the tactics and led the field, winning the Class 4 handicap by ¾ lengths. So, it would be worth noting where exactly she settles on Monday. She has a DI of 3.00, higher than her rivals mentioned above.

Flamboyant Lady (Burden Of Proof – Cesandri) finished 6th, about 10 ¼ lengths behind Paso Robles in the 1000 Guineas. Subsequently made to run at 7f, she finished a close 2nd in a class 3 handicap. Her dam Cesandri had 8 foals, but none of them ever won beyond a mile. As Flamboyant Lady is unlikely to stay, there are chances that she might revert to shorter distances after this race. Artistryy (Sedgefield – Ballade Danon) has 11 starts but won only once in September at 7f. In The Deccan Derby Gr.1, she was 10 ¼ lengths behind Consigliori at the post. On her last start at 2000m, she finished 2nd in a class 3 handicap. Full-sister Swiftness won once over 2400m but sire Sedgefield is yet to have a Group winner at this distance.

UNDERFOOT AND OVERHEAD CONDITIONS

Weather on Monday is likely to stay mostly sunny. The humidity will be on the higher side at 72% but chances of rainfall are nil. Daytime temperature will stay close to 28°c. This season 40 favorites have obliged in 108 races (37%) at Hyderabad.

THE DENOUEMENT

Prima facie, the in-form filly Paso Robles appeals the most to win the Ladies’ Derby at Malakpet. Arazan has had great success with this crop and that surely won’t stop anytime soon. Cape Kidnappers, who is winless for about 260 days now and has stamina limitations.Nanoli-stud bred Nekhbet is likely to improve further. A slow-paced race might suit Nekhbet.