THE COMPLICATED AND THE COMPLEXITIES OF RACING

Many would agree that predicting the stock markets is the toughest thing to do, but ask a racegoer the same question – and he would say it is “picking winners” ! Well, that isn’t exaggerated. Even though loads of data is readily available in the public domain, there is still a lot that eludes the ‘common punter’. Form is inarguably the focal point of every handicapper’s rituals, but the race-day fitness and the luck are an equally indispensable part of the very same setting. So, basically something that appeared complicated at first, is in practice, even more complex.

To put that into perspective, one may use the metaphor of the game of chess. There are dozens of ways in which you can make the opening move. 4 moves into the game, the combination goes upward of 70,000. 14 moves into the game, it goes into billions and 20 moves into the game, you are playing a game that has never been played before! But despite the complicated nature of the game, the rook moves in a certain way, the knight moves in a certain way, etc. A more experienced player is likely to defeat a less experienced one, because that is the nature of the complicated environment. But the sport of racing is a ‘complex world’. And this complex world is best symbolized by snooker. Snooker, ironically has 10 pieces less than chess. But if you ask a world-class player to open the board with a certain stroke, and ask him to repeat that stroke and if this time the cue is off even by 1 micron, the resultant board is not off by 1 micron, it’s entirely different. More so, this year’s Indian Derby’s huge field of 20 runners pretty much sums up what I wish to convey!

THE BIG PICTURE

At the apogee of the British reign, Calcutta used to be the focal point of racing in India. As Bombay began to get commercialized, the sport shifted its epicenter westwards. In the early 1920s, the Mahalaxmi Race Course was re-aligned and new stands, designed by Australian architect Theo Marks, were built. The purpose of modernizing it was to have a new race – Eclipse Stakes of India – coincide with the opening of new facilities. Though for some reason, the first two runnings (1924 & 1925) were held on the old race course.

Come Sunday the racing aficionados will have a ‘platter’ full of group races lined one after the another. So, if The Indian Derby is the entrée of the day, then The S.M. Shah Eclipse Stakes of India, Gr.2 can well be its Hors d’oeuvre.

PAST DECADE IN NUMBERS

Though the race is a perfect pre-cursor to The Invitation Cup, none of its winners could subsequently win the latter in the same year. Though 4 favorites have obliged, there have been none in the last 3 runnings (all those 3 carried less than 53.5kgs). Top-rated horses have won it exactly half the times. All the winners in the past decade were rated in triple digits except the last winner Smasher.  Ironically, he was also the one who had finished fastest (02:00.09) and won by the longest margin (4L) in the last 10 years. Only one got-abroad – Quasar won it, but there are none in Sunday’s field. 2010 was the last time a filly – Icebreaker got the better of the colts. The field’s rating – 101 is five points below the norm. The average winner rating stands at 112, and three runners on Sunday are rated as much or higher than that.

THE CONTENDERS AND THE PRETENDERS

Urdu for the word Imagination, Tasawwur (Multidimensional – Transformation) has aptly ‘caught the imagination’ of racegoers with three scintillating victories. Starting from Class 3 in September, Tasawwur has come up the rungs rapidly, in what can be termed an ‘incremental improvement’. In Pune, he had beaten Wizard Of Stocks, one of Pesi Shroff’s Derby runners, by 5 ¼ lengths over 2000m. Last month, he won his first graded race on his last start in The Maharaja Jiwajirao Scindia Trophy, Gr.2 over 1800m. That day, A. Sandesh was on a winning spree, winning 5 races in a 6-race card. Tasawwur, notably has also shown fair adaptability of pace. At 1800m & 2000m, he settled back in the field comfortably and accelerated perfectly when alerted by the rider. At 1600m in December, he ran with-the-pace and thwarted the challenge of fast-finishing Valegro. Such adaptability and perspicacity, in essence, augurs well for his future assignments.

After winning The Indian Oaks, Gr.1, Roberta’s (Multidimensional – Moonlight Romance) form fizzled out and it took her 8 starts, spread across a year, to end that drought. Of those 8 starts, 6 were graded races and she kept on losing steam with each run, as if implying that ‘’the best thing to do while it rains, is to let it rain’’. Now, because nothing happened as intended, she had to come down in handicap company to earn a bracket. Since the turn of century, almost all Indian Oaks’ winners retired with a rating above 100, but satirically, Roberta is still rated in double digits. A group-winning mare often earns her owners handsome bucks at stud, and so the connections would want Roberta to notch up a few more black-type wins before she retires. Roberta, notably has won all 3 starts at 2000m. Her trainer Pesi Shroff has won this race with Smasher, Onassis and Cabriolet.

From the same yard, Sacred Roman (Holy Roman Emperor – Clicquot) is coming off a win in The Byculla Club Cup at 2800m. After winning The Stayers Cup, Gr.1 last year, Sacred Roman failed to finish on board in the next 4 starts. In the last two races though, he has shown a peculiar change of tactics- running in the front. For a horse who is an outright stayer, front-running role is rather strange but then that is how he won The Stayers Cup too. If Desert God doesn’t run this year’s Stayers Cup, it can well be an encore for Sacred Roman next month.

Irfan Ghatala-trained Toroloco was the last outstation winner of this race and this year it’s Salazaar (Burden Of Proof – Saddle Star) who comes from the very same stable. The metaphor of ‘Curate’s eggs’ can well be used for Salazaar and his recent performance can somewhat be compared to that of New Zealand’s cricket team. They do the regular stuff well, but just don’t finish it the same way. He has finished second 6 times in his last 9 runs and it appears that he hasn’t been the same after changing silks. The last time he won a race was in October 2018 in Mysore. This would be just his 3rd start on this track, the last time he ran here was in this very race, finishing 3rd.

Contrary to what his pedigree initially suggested, Bronx (China Visit – Blue Ridge) has done well at longer distances. He showed that in Pune, winning The RWITC Ltd Gold Cup, Gr.2 by 7 lengths. On his last start in ‘The Jiwajirao’, he finished 3 ¼ lengths behind Tasawwur conceding 5 kgs. Now that the weights are at levels, theoretically Bronx can be expected to narrow that margin. But winning against an improving Tasawwur might be an uphill task.

Imtiaz Sait has 3 runners in the field. Caprisca (Steinbeck – Xisca) has returned to the track after 175 days and was withdrawn in the monsoon for a swelling in his fetlock joints. He last won in March 2019 and that is his only win in the last 17 months (after The Indian St. Leger, Gr.1). Raees (Sedgefield – Lost Perfection) has won all 9 starts over 2000m and above and would definitely target the Stayers Cup after this run. Truly Epic (Mull Of Kintyre – Sun Control) was 1 ½ lengths behind Roberta and before that 7 lengths behind Tasawwur, which probably leaves him with a lot of catching up to do. Usha-stud has 5 runners in the fray and the last of them Steinlight (Steinbeck – Psychic Light) will run for the first time at this track.

THE DENOUEMENT

While the backers of form are likely to favour Tasawwur, who will eye an ‘exponential improvement’ in The Eclipse Stakes, a sizeable number of punters are expected to back Roberta and Bronx. Suraj Narredu’s return to the saddle also boosts the chances of Salazaar. Caprisca and Sacred Roman, for whom the distance is sharp, might take an easy run tomorrow before The Stayers Cup.