Two of the winter Derbies of 2020-21 have been run and both have been won by unbeaten horses who also started as favourites. Born Queen maintained her winning ways at Guindy and so did Black Pearl at Calcutta. Last year's Bangalore Derby, too, saw the unbeaten War Hammer triumph. This year, we have the unbeaten filly Forest Flame (Leitir Mor - Memory Bay) in the field and she is certain to be well fancied.

Forest Flame's five wins include four black-type races and two Classics. She is the only Gr.1 winner in the field and, without a doubt, has the most imposing record among the nine contestants. And yet, it is hard to be certain about her hoisting the flag on the Republic Day. The scepticism arises from the fact that she is essaying a trip which may be beyond her ken. The longest that a 'get' of Leitir Mor has so far won is 2000 m. and there is only one instance of that. Besides, it was an ordinary handicap race and the horse concerned was Sporting Memories. Sporting Memories was beaten easily in the South India Derby, Gr.1. Successor has failed twice to win over 2400 m., Amazing Blaze once and some Leitir Mors -- from proven staying families --  have been found out even over a mile. On her last start in the Gool & Soli Poonawalla Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1, Forest Flame herself was all out to get better of Miss Muffet, a much less experienced filly rated 33 points inferior and running in her first black-type race

Every good stallion -- and Leitir Mor is certainly one -- gets an odd good winner out of his normal distance range. For Leitir Mor, though, time is running out. In his next three crops combined, he has just about thirty foals. Class and the unbeaten status, though, are on Forest Flame's side. She settles well and comes from behind. Besides, her two principal rivals are not cast iron certainties.  

Lagarde (Kingda Ka - La Terrasse) has many similarities with Forest Flame. Like the filly, he has won two Classics at a mile, one at Bangalore and the other at Pune and, to add intrigue to the delight of conspiracy theorists, is also trained by Sulaiman Attaolahi. Also like the filly, he comes from behind and it is far from certain that he will be suited by the extended distance. Lagarde's sire Kingda Ka went to stud much earlier than Leitir Mor and has established himself as a useful sire whose progeny is at its best over a mile but he has some good winners like King Charles (Golconda Derby, Gr.1), Jack Frost (C.N. Wadia Gold Cup, Gr.2) and Booker Jones who have fared well over longer. Lagarde is bred on the same Kingda Ka/Glory of Dancer cross like Jack Frost. Lagarde's family is replete with milers; Forest Flame has much better stamina credentials what with her dam being a full-sister to Mystical. Forest Flame's full-brother Mystic Bay, though, hasn't won beyond 1400 m. In winning his two Classics, Lagarde clocked a much better timing than Forest Flame on the same tracks though the filly ran on the days when the PNR reading was higher. The colt and the filly are well matched. 

The third Classic winner in the fray is Antibes (Multidimensional - Fond Fantasy) who picked up the Bangalore Oaks, Gr.2 on her last start and in the process became a course and distance winner. She is bred to stay, being a full-sister to Bold Majesty who won this very race in 2015. She made her debut only after racing had re-started after the lockdowns and was a close third first time out. On her next outing she finished a way off second to Forest Flame, coming from behind when the race was all but over. The Bangalore Oaks, Gr.2 was her final start and once again she unleashed a late run to mow down Rambunctious. Her dam, a daughter of Razeen, won eight races including four Classics but no Derby. In the Kingfisher Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 run in the summer in heavy going, she was beaten close home by stable-mate Glorious Colours while in the winter she broke down in the running of the Bangalore Derby, Gr.1 and was retired to stud. The latter race was won by her 'nephew' Star of Windsor who later won the Poonawalla Farms Stayers' Cup, Gr.1 in a record time. This is the family of Wandering Star, Moonlight Romance, Aristotle and most recently Roberta. There is no dearth of stamina but Antibes will be facing much higher rated rivals and she is yet to fully demonstrate her class.

Can all three Classic winners be upstaged by a lowly rated outsider ? Unlikely but not impossible because all sporting events are capable of providing the most unexpected. Earlier this week we witnessed a 'miracle' at Brisbane. The Australian attack, comprising of four bowlers with the experience of nearly 250 previous Test Matches and a combined haul of over one thousand wickets, failed to dismiss India twice. India's raw quintet had paltry five Test Matches and eleven wickets behind it and yet it captured twenty Aussie wickets !  

The one with the best attributes of causing an upset is the very inexperienced filly Rambunctious (Kingda Ka - Circle of Bliss). Having won on her debut this term in Pune over a mile, she travelled to Bangalore for the Oaks and ran a cracker of a race for a 'rookie'. Always close to the pace, she took over the running soon after coming into the straight and was looking good when Antibes swept past her.  Unfortunately for Rambunctious, her next start is the Derby where her conqueror is also a participant. Also, her owner has an interest in Lagarde so her exact role in the race is a matter of conjecture. Her sire Kingda Ka has been discussed in the context of Lagarde.  Her dam was a fine racemare who won four races up to 2000 m., including three black-type contests and placed, when she was racing as Circle of Life, in the Villoo Poonawalla Indian Oaks, Gr.1 and McDowell Signature Indian Derby, Gr.1. She was also second in the Idar Gold Trophy, Gr.3. It is significant that she failed to win over 2400 m. She comes from a good international family -- that of Arazi, Noverre and others -- which is best between a mile and 2000 m. A mating to Kingda Ka does not suggest a certain staying type but she could have the requisite class to throw a spanner in the works. 

The remaining five runners have just three wins between them and include two maidens who have failed to even place in five starts. A couple of them have decent pedigrees but there are stamina concerns about most of them. One of those five, however, has forced his way to demand attention. That is Forever Together (Excellent Art - Nearness of You). Saturday morning's declaration that Suraj Narredu will ride him in the Derby was a bit of a surprise but not altogether a shocker. The colt is trained by Rajesh Narredu and ridden in both his races so far and consistently on the track of late by his brother Suraj. This is team Star Superior; owned, after a couple of early starts, by the Poonawallas, trained by Rajesh Narredu and ridden only by Suraj Narredu in all his nineteen career starts. Suraj Narredu is basically a free lancer but it is understood that he does have some commitments to ride for Poonawallas in the Classics. Whether it is the commitment or whether he genuinely feels that Forever Together has a better chance in the race is hard to fathom. What it definitely means is that Lagarde's chances come down by a bit and his odds go up because Akshay Kumar, competent as he is, is not in the same league as Suraj Narredu as a jockey.

Forever Together was second to Mistletoe in the first race to be run after the lockdown. At the beginning of this month, he smashed a Class IV field by half a dozen lengths. He is open to further improvement -- and it is evident in his track work -- but a line through MIstletoe, who was a faraway fifth to Antibes in the Bangalore Oaks, Gr.2 suggests that he will need every bit of it to come into contention. Excellent Art does have two Derby winners -- Star Superior (Indian Derby, Gr.1) and Indian Pharoah (Golconda Derby, Gr.1) -- to his credit but he is not a confirmed producer of  staying Classic horses. Other than their Derby wins, neither Star Superior nor Indian Pharaoh have won over 2400 m. subsequently. Forever Together's dam won her only race at a mile though she placed second in Kingfisher Derby Bangalore, Gr.1. This family has some brilliant milers and some Classic winners over 2400 m. It is too early to say which way Forever Together will go.

Last Ten Year Trends

Of the last ten winners of the Bangalore Derby, three were top-rated and four favourites brought home the bounty. Two fillies have bagged the Derby and the same number have been 'got-abroads'.  Two unbeaten horses --Toroloco and War Hammer -- maintained their winning sequence. As against that, we had the maiden winner Tororosso who is  still looking to add to his Derby victory. Red Baron, who came from Mumbai, has been the only outstation winner. Barring Red Baron and Tororosso, the remaining eight runners had won their start prior to the Derby. P. Trevor with three wins leads among the jockeys while Irfan Ghatala has the same number to head the trainers' table. No stallion has sired more than one winner in the last ten years while the leading stud farms are Hazara and Kunigal who have two wins apiece. The average field rating has been 68. This year, understandably, it is lower at 45.

PAST THE POST

Irrespective of who leads early on -- one of the no-hopers always tends to rush from the word "Go" --, Rambunctious will probably bring the field into the straight. The chasing pack has to ensure that the filly has not pinched a handy lead but also make their own moves at the right moment. This is where Akshay Kumar could face a problem for he has never ridden Lagarde in a race before. No doubt he will be briefed well but a first hand experience is always preferable.

Fifteen Classics have been run so far this year and ten of the winners were favourites or top-rated. Nine had won their previous starts. Most telling of all is the fact that Suraj Narredu has eight wins.  All the more remarkable when you consider that he did not have a mount in the Bangalore 1000 Guineas, Gr.2 and Calcutta Oaks, Gr.3.