There are ten runners for the Golconda Derby, Gr.1 -- same as for the South India Derby, Gr.1 exactly a month ago -- and numerically the outstation raiders and the local defenders are evenly matched. The average field rating is 46 which is better than the Bangalore Derby, Gr.1 but lower than what prevailed at Chennai and Calcutta. What is in favour of the local brigade, though, is that it is higher rated on an average. Over the last ten years, the home team has come out on top with a scoreline of 6-4.

The two highest rated runners in the field are Ashwa Bravo and Lombardy, both by Leitir Mor, who are Malakpet-based. They go into Sunday's race having already bagged a Guineas each. The colt Ashwa Bravo (out of  Shadow Roll) has won four of his five races. He was well beaten when taken to Guindy for the South India 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 but redeemed himself by winning the Golconda 2000 Guineas, Gr.2  in style on his home turf. Lombardy (out of the Razeen mare Lombardia), was beaten two and a half lengths by Immortality -- rated 27 points below her -- when she ran in the Golconda Oaks, Gr.2. Seven Classics have been run over 2400 m. so far in the current year. Leitir Mor had no runners at Calcutta but in the other five the stallion had a representative who finished on board but did not win. Though Lombardia's dam is a daughter of Razeen she did not win beyond 2000 m. and of her five previous foals only Ritz won a solitary race over 2400 m. off a rating of a measly 20. Ashwa Bravo's dam died shortly after he was weaned. She had ten previous foals to race abroad and in India who won 32 races between but not a single one over 2400 m. or more. Similarly, although the catalogue page of Ashwa Bravo's dam is replete with black-type, most of the good winners have excelled around a mile. There is hence a chink in the armour of Ashwa Bravo and Lombardy. The question is -- is there a rival who can exploit it ? 

The highest rated of the 'raiders' is the Mysore-based Vachan (Whatsthescript - Maun Vrat). Trainer Rakesh's ward made his debut at Malakpet but has raced mostly at Chennai. On his last start at Guindy in the South India Derby, Gr.1, he was expected to be in the thick of things but ran a disappointing race. Every horse needs to be excused one bad day at the office and Vachan still needs to be kept in mind. He is bred on the same cross as Germanicus who won this very race four years ago. His dam is by the stamina influence Montjeu and  she comes from a staying family. John taking over the reins from C. Umesh is a positive change. 

Pesi Shroff ended his Classic drought of over two years with Immortality's Golconda Oaks, Gr.2 win two weeks back and he returns to Malakpet  with a pair of contenders. Immortality was possibly ruled out because of the proximity of this race to her previous one -- she will probably take the Indian Oaks-Indian Derby route -- and his runners on Sunday appear as 'light-weight' as Immortality did before her victory. However,like Immortality, they all have the potential to wrench the best laid plans. Shroff, however, is still looking for his first winner of the Golconda Derby, Gr.1.

The better of Shroff's duo is Roaring Tiger (Kitten's Joy - Jazzy Jordan) despite his lower rating. Firstly he commands attention as the only runner in the field with a win over the Derby distance. A fair third to Immortality on his debut over a mile, he was upped to 2400 m. for his second start and came out of the maidens. Not many horses break their duck over the Derby distance and even a lesser number do so on just their second outing. That clearly emphasises the point that the colt is not short on stamina. You can be sure that when the Manjri Stud imports a mare, there is a lot going for her because Mr. Shapoor Mistry, the doyen of that nursery, knows his pedigrees. Roaring Tiger's dam failed to meet her reserve at the Keeneland Sales in November 2016 and Manjri Stud hastened to acquire her in a private deal. Jazzy Jordan was in foal to Kitten's Joy, who has been a leading Turf sire in the U.S.A. over the last few years and stands at Hill 'n' Dale Farms for US $ 60,000. He has had two good winners in England in Roaring Lion and Kameko. Jazzy Jordan was a winner in the U.S.A. and a half-sister to Sahara Sky (Metropolitan Handicap, Gr.1) and Animal Queen (Van Berg Stakes). Their dam was a Gr.3 winner and  the grandam a Gr.2 winner. Further, the Kentucky Derby, Gr.1 Nyquist also figures on the catalogue page. Roaring Tiger is himself inbred 3x3 to Sadler's Wells, a chef de race classified as Classic/Stout. There is enough class in the pedigree of Roaring Tiger. What he lacks is experience.  

Bold Legend (Win Legend - Bold Reply) won a race over 2000 m. at Pune and was taken to Guindy for the South India Derby, Gr.1 where he just missed the board and was around eight lengths behind the winner Born Queen. He will need to improve considerably on that effort but being bred on the same cross Angel Dust, Anjeze, Hall of Famer and Sir Cecil means that the potential to do so is there.

If the winner emerges from the five runners discussed so far, it will not cause a surprise. On the other hand, if the remaining five throw up the winner, it will be a major shock. Sulaiman Attaolahi, in sublime form at the moment, comes from Bangalore with an interesting duo  -- Arabian Phoenix (an excellent pedigree but sire and dam are as yet unproven) and Towering Presence (a full-brother to South India Oaks, Gr.1 winner New Creation). Both have raced just twice,  are still maidens and quite wet behind the ears. Hidden Hope ran last in the Golconda 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 on his last start. Royal Pal has a win over 1800 m. but has too much to make up on ratings. Named after a British crime drama series, Peaky Blinders has a couple of wins to his name. He runs in the Mahindra colours -- prominent even as long ago as early 1960s -- and appears more of a genuine handicapper rather than a Derby winner.

Trends of Last Ten Years

The average field rating for the last ten years is 65. Three of the winners were top rated, there were the same number of last start winners and winning fillies. Four favourites have obliged and two of the winners were 'got-abroads'.

PAST THE POST

This will be the 42nd running of the Golconda Derby. It has always been run in January except in 1986 when it was scheduled for 9 February. That running was won by Grand Entry, trained by Madhav Mangalorkar and ridden by A. Mercer. Last year's winner Royal Crystal was trained by Arjun Mangalorkar who emulated his father. The other pair of father and son to train Golconda Derby winners are the Byramjis, father Rashid and son Darius. The Byramjis among them won five Golconda Derbies but the overall individual  honours are held by S. Ganapathy and S. Padmanabhan who have led in five winners each. Jockeys Pesi Shroff, Aslam Kader, B. Prakash and Suraj Narredu are tied at the top with three winners apiece. Poonawalla Farms have bred eight winners. The Northern Dancer horse Ilheus sired four winners but in the last ten years only Multidimensional has managed to produce more than one winner.

What is implied when someone says, "The horse may not stay beyond 2000 m." ? It does not mean that the horse will stop running after 2000 m. He will keep on running but his ability to put in a winning run is impaired. Where will he finish ? That depends chiefly on two factors; one, how truly the race in run and two, what is his rating vis-a-vis the other runners. In a true run race, his lack of stamina will be found out but if the early pace is slow, his rating -- or one could say his class -- will enable him to finish on board or even win. Class can compensate for lack of stamina but only up to a point. Similarly, stamina alone is not enough to win a long distance race. Both are required in some measure and that is what makes the equation interesting as well as, sometimes, frustrating.