With the Pune season of 2020 not taking place at all and the one in 2021 being truncated, a slot could not be found for the Indian St. Leger. As such, the St. Leger was run at Mumbai last year and the crop of 2016 contested it as five year-olds. This year, too, Mumbai is the venue and the runners are five year-old. The extraordinary situation of the pandemic justifies it but it is hoped that we return to the normal schedule at the earliest. A Classic is not, normally, contested by five year-olds.

Trends (Last Ten Years)

The most glaring fact of the last ten renewals is that all the winners, barring Caprisca, had a win over 2400 m. or more before they lined up for the St. Leger. This is a good race for the contenders who had won their previous starts with eight having done so. A good race for the favourites, too, for they have obliged seven times. Top rated horses have done well with six of them winning. Four fillies -- In The Spotlight, Amazing Grace, Adjudicate and Juliette --, four 'got-abroads' -- An Acquired Taste, Amazing Grace, Quasar and Juliette -- three outstation challengers --  In The Spotlight, Desert God and Adjudicate --  have scored. The average field for the final Classic of the season sees six runners. The average field rating is 101 while that of winners is 118. Pesi Shroff has saddled three of the winners, A. Sandesh was astride four and three winners were born at the Usha Stud.  Multidimensional has sired two winners and two are out of Razeen mares.

The Protagonists

Lagarde (Kingda Ka - La Terrasse) is the highest rated runner in the field and justifiably so. For starters, he is the only Classic winner in the race with the Bangalore 2000 Guineas, Gr.2, Indian 2000 Guineas, Gr.1 and the Kingfisher Ultra Bangalore Derby, Gr.1 in his kitty. He then traveled to Mumbai for the R.R. Ruia Gold Cup, Gr.3 and scored a fighting victory over Nisus. That gave him five wins from six starts and plenty of supporters in the Kingfisher Ultra Indian Derby, Gr.1. He disappointed his backers by running an insipid race and finishing a dozen lengths behind the winner Immortality. Well rested after that, he was back in action after a long gap of eight months to lift the Ashoka Chakra Cup on his home track. He humped a massive 63.5 kgs in that race and yet easily got the better of Automatic and Salazaar. Back to Mumbai for the Zavaray S. Poonawalla Indian Turf Invitation Cup, Gr.1 and once again he had his share of supporters. But history repeated itself, as he was easily disposed of by the two grey fillies Alluring Silver and Juliette and finished half a dozen lengths behind the winner.

He has the class, has won a Derby over 2400 m. and has rating points to spare over his main rival. Yet, he does give the impression that his ideal distance is around 2000 m. and the mile and a half at Mahalakshmi has found him out twice. He may still get the better of most of the others but in Theon he has a dangerous foe.

Theon (Multidimensional - Fontainebleau) made his debut at Calcutta over a mile on the same day as his contemporaries contested the Derby. A fortnight later, he won over the Derby distance and hacked his rivals, clocking a time that was superior to what Black Pearl (in The Derby) and Zoya (in the Oaks) had clocked over the same trip, though he was carrying 5 kgs. less than the colt. He then moved to Pesi Shroff's yard at Mahalakshmi and had an easy outing. In Pune, he raced just once, winning a Class IV race over 2000 m. Many eyebrows were raised when Shroff started him the Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy Stayers' Cup, Gr.1. He ran a cracker of  a race, finishing strongly from the tail-end of the field to be just a neck behind the winner. That clearly established his staying ability and the fact that he, despite his limited experience, was not fazed by the Gr.1 rivals.

With just five starts so far, Theon has ample room for improvement. That run would also have given his jockey P.S. Chouhan a better idea of where to place him in the early part of the race, when to move up and the moment to launch the final assault. Lagarde is bound to be ahead of him and he has to ensure that the Classic winner is not allowed to steal a march. In a dog fight, Theon's better stamina will prevail.

Others

The mare Apsara Star (Win Legend - Actuate) has raced at Calcutta, Chennai, Pune and Mumbai and logged three wins from eleven starts. She is consistent but yet to win a black-type race or one beyond 2000 m. She is from Dashmesh Stud's Urvashi branch of the Belamina family of Chaitanya Chakram (Indian Turf Invitation Cup, Gr.1), Astronomic (McDowell Indian Derby, Gr.1, Stayers' Cup, Gr.1) and others. Last time out, she was within four lengths of Theon. She seems to have stagnated somewhat whereas Theon is on an upward curve. The only other runner, Marlboro Man, is destined to be the whipper-in.

The Field

There are just four runners and of them only Marlboro Man was an original entry. Theon and Apsara Star were supplemented at the second stage last month while Lagarde has thrown in his hat earlier this week as a final entry. The average field rating is 82. The number equals that which the Starter despatched in 2014 at Pune when Pesi Shroff saddled the late developer Amazing Grace to lower the colours of the Indian Derby-Invitation Cup winner Alaindair.

PAST THE POST

This race provides ample food for thought and discussion. Ratings and timings are important factors of any analysis and while there are standard systems, many people have evolved their own methods. After the Indian Derby, Lagarde, who had till then contested among only his age group, was rated 79. In the Ashoka Chakra Cup, he competed against older horses for the first time and won easily carrying the top weight. His rating shot up by 38 points to 118. The RWITC Handicapper adjusted that rating to 115 and after his lukewarm show in the Invitation Cup dropped it further to 112.

Theon was a late starter and an ordinary Class IV winner when his connections, being fully aware of the consequences, pitched him in the Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy Stayers' Cup, Gr.1. He ran a brave race, was gaining ground on the winner and was only a neck shy when the winning post arrived. His rating zoomed from 54 to 96, a jump of 42 points. There is a school of thought that the Handicapper was conservative. After all, Theon had finished between My Opinion (110) and Salazaar (104) so any rating between 105 and 109 would not have drawn an adverse comment since all three horses were running at level weights.

On Sunday, Lagarde and Theon carry the same weight and there is a difference of 16 points in their ratings. In pure mathematical terms, Lagarde should romp home. He may win but certainly it won't be as easy as the ratings suggest. Lagarde's rating is based on his performance at 1800 m; Theon's at 3000 m. which is closer to the St. Leger distance. Besides, most ratings do not factor in the pedigree/stamina potential.

Theon's sire Multidimensional recently overtook Riyahi in the table of Classic winners sired and he is now third behind Razeen and Placerville. More than half of his Classic winners have a win over 2400 m. or more. Theon is a three-parts brother to Point To Prove who was also second in the Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy Stayers' Cup, Gr.1 the previous year. Lagarde's pedigree is not as steeped in stamina. Thus, we have the classic case of class versus stamina and that is where the charm of this year's Indian St. Leger lies.