At the very outset, it is clarified  that this is not a full fledged Derby preview. Just a few random observations on some points which caught the  eye.

'Got Abroads'

The field contains five 'got abroads'. That is a sizable number that has been matched five times previously, first in 1995. On two of those occasions, a 'got abroad' emerged as the winner; Jacqueline in 2010 and Be Safe in 2015. It was in the early 1990s that import restrictions were relaxed sufficiently and that had an immediate impact on the number of in-foal mares that landed in India. So far, exactly 100 'got abroads' have run in the Indian Derby; just 32 from 1943 to 1994 and 68 in the last 29 years. In all, eight 'got abroads' have gone first past the post:-

1958 Canny Scot[NSB]
1964 Prince Pradeep
1980 Mohawk
1999 Supervite (filly) (on disqualification of the 'on track' winner Saddle Up)
2002 Starsky
2006 Velvet Rope
2010 Jacqueline (filly)
2015 Be Safe

Eight victories from 100 starters give the 'got abroad' team a 8% strike rate. 73 wins from 948 runners give the 'made in India' brigade a 7.7 % probability. There is nothing inherently superior in either team and neither enjoys any clear cut advantage over the other. It is the horse on the day who holds the key.

Another interesting aspect of the five 'got abroads' -- Christofle, Enabler, Exuma, Fighton and the filly Jendayi --  in the field this year is that two of them are sired by Epsom Derby winners. Ruler of the World, the sire of Enabler and Australia, the sire of Exuma, won the Epsom Derby in their respective years. Both were trained by Aidan O'Brien at Ballydoyle and both are sons of Galileo. There is also Christofle whose sire Le Havre is a winner of the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby).  Of course, there have been six previous Indian Derby runners sired by national Derby winners abroad but none of them managed to win.

Unbeaten Runners

We have had four unbeaten winners of the Indian Derby -- Exhilaration (1989), Elusive Pimpernel (1995), Indictment (1997) and War Hammer (2020). There have been a dozen other horses who were unbeaten in at least four starts as the Indian Derby approached. Of them, four -- Vesuvius, Adler, Continual and Black Pearl -- did not run in the Derby; Vesuvius and Continual broke down, Adler opted to run in the Invitation Cup while Black Pearl came down from Calcutta but was unwell. The remaining eight did participate in the Derby, seven started as favourites and all of them were beaten. There are memorable stories connected with some of them but for the sake of brevity, just list their names and wins to their credit here -- Her Majesty (9), Heliantha (7), Southern Empire (10), Set Alight (10), Becket (5), Sir Cecil (8) and Miracle (8).

One of the 'got abroads' this year is the unbeaten filly Jendayi.

Course and Distance Winners

A course and distance winner is not a rarity in an Indian Derby. 59 winners of the Indian Oaks have taken their chance in the Derby -- Jendayi will become the 60th on Sunday -- and they were all course and distance winners. Only ten fillies have bagged the Oaks-Derby double; the remaining 49 did not find their course and distance victory of any help though 32 of them managed to get their number on board.

It isn't often that we have a course and distance winner in the Derby who is a colt. This year, we have Giant King who posted his maiden win over 2400 m. at Mahalakshmi on the last day of December. It may not be known to everyone but there are two colts who have won the Indian Derby in the past who were also course and distance winners before the race.

 Five 'got abroads', an unbeaten winner and two C & D winners are rare occurrences and it is doubtful if any of the previous 81 runnings of the Indian Derby had all of them. So, this year's renewal is quite unique. A study of what has happened in the past is useful in unearthing the 'trends'. It does not necessarily portend what is going to follow because each race is unique in itself and has its own divine script. However, for the sake of those interested in 'trends' some of them are mentioned below.

Mind The Gap

In 1942-43, the inaugural year of Indian Classics, the Indian Oaks and the Indian St. Leger were not held. They came the following year though the St. Leger was run as Governor-General's Cup. In the early days, the Derby was run exactly a week after the Oaks, meaning that there was a gap of just six days between the two races. This period lasted till 1983 when the gap was extended to 13 days. In the last three years, the gap has been further increased to 20 days. The Covid situation in 2021 and 2022 caused the traditional programming to be altered and though there was no such compulsion last year, the 20 day gap was maintained. It is again 20 days this year so we are, perhaps, now in the third phase.

There are different views regarding the gap. One school of thought feels that since the fillies have two Classics restricted exclusively for them, there is no reason to schedule the Oaks to their convenience. Others feel that since the fillies are permitted to run in the Derby they should have a fair shot at it.

Of course, there are exceptions to gaps mentioned above in each period, caused usually by the postponement of the Derby due to various reasons. The longest gap, 48 days, occurred in 1973 when a strike by syces caused the Derby to be run in March. The Oaks winner that year was comedian Mehmood's one eyed filly Rock Witness. She could run only fourth in the Derby. In the 39 years of 6 days gaps, only Chakori, Rose de Bahama, Rose Royal and Fair Haven were able to win both the races. During the second period of the13 day gap, Revelation, Starfire Girl, Amazing Bay, Jacqueline and Moonlight Romance achieved the double. Immortality's Oaks and Derby victories were separated by 20 days.

PAST THE POST

The winning trends are given for all the 81 runnings as well as for the last ten years.

Favourites. 35/81 (43.21 %)  -- 2/10 (20.00 %)
Previous Start Winners. 56/81 (69.14 %) -- 9/10 (90.00 %)
Previous Start Over 2400 m. 31/81 (38.27 %) -- 6/10 (60.00 %)
Trained by Outstation Trainer. 23/81 (28.40 %) -- 5/10 (50.00 %)
'Top Rated' Winners. 2/10 (20 %)

We have had 19 'Classics' run so far during the Winter Season of 2023-24. 14 of those have been won by favourites with an incredible strike rate of 73.68 %. A dozen winners had the top rating which translates to 63.16 %. Suraj Narredu has won eight Classics, including three of the four Derbies, all on horses trained by his father or his brother.