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Who Will Win The Dubai World Cup 2011?
By Anil Mukhi | 26 Mar 2011 |
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It's 15 years since I saw the great Cigar barrelling down the straight of Dubai's Nad-Al-Sheba track, tenaciously refusing to yield to the determined challenge of Soul Of The Matter, and thereby annexing the inaugural running of the Dubai World Cup (2000 m.). The race has since been moved to the state-of-the-art Meydan Racecourse and upped in prize to $10 million, a sum guaranteed to entice superior performers from around the globe. Emirates Airlines are the title sponsors.
This year the race, which will be run under lights at 11:05 p.m. IST this evening, sees a field of 14 high-class customers headed to the starting gate. An eclectic mix of equines and humans – hailing from such diverse locations as the Chechen Republic, England, Ireland, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and the United States of America – is represented. Between them the 14 declared starters have earned the colossal sum of $40,816,859, ranging from the phenomenal $12,364,499 banked by Buena Vista down to the lowly $201,408 grossed by the 80,000 guineas foal purchase, Prince Bishop. Altogether, the prize money for the 7 Thoroughbred races alone on the card is $26 million, more than on any other day of racing anywhere in the world. If they all start, as many as 71 international runners can expect to be seen during the evening, flying the flags of 13 nations.
A quick run-through of the form of the contenders for the night's feature, in order of card number, follows:
1. Fly Down (by Mineshaft) – trained by Nick Zito, ridden by Julien Leparoux
This colt is good enough to win at his best – but he has not been at his best of late. His last win came in May 2010, and although his performance in the Breeders Cup Classic – 3rd to Blame and Zenyatta – was noteworthy, he has run only on dirt and in the USA, and the question of how he adapts to a different environment and surface (Tapeta) remains.
2. Monterosso (by Dubawi) – trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni, ridden by Mickael Barzalona
Twice a winner on the All Weather at Lingfield early in his career, he has been kept exclusively to the turf in eight starts since, recording the most recent of his six victories under the same rider at Meydan earlier this month. A Group 2 winner, he has yet to show he can jump up to Group 1 level but certainly should put up a good show, more so if he makes the running in a race virtually devoid of runners with early speed. That was how Gloria de Campeao upset his better-fancied rivals last year.
3. Prince Bishop (by Dubawi) – trained by Saeed bin Suroor, ridden by Ahmed Ajtebi
The second of Godolphin's three runners, he has a pair of Group wins in France to his credit in France last year. Perhaps he was rusty when a modest fifth in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 earlier this month but the fact that Frankie Dettori has deserted him does not inspire confidence.
4. Cape Blanco (by Galileo) – trained by Aidan O'Brien, ridden by Jamie Spencer
For several reasons, he is a very interesting runner here: firstly, he sports the Coolmore banner which has been absent at the Dubai carnival for over five years; secondly, a significant share in him was recently sold to Jim and Fitriani Hay; thirdly, Aidan O'Brien has chosen this race – on an artificial surface – in preference to the Dubai Sheema Classic on turf the same evening. Presumably the idea is to enhance his stallion appeal to the US market, should he win. Barring a pair of clunkers he threw in on two big occasions, Cape Blanco has been very consistent and ought to go close.
5. Gio Ponti (by Tale Of The Cat) – trained by Christophe Clement, ridden by Ramon Dominguez
This admirable six-year-old is equally effective on all surfaces – he was second to Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Classic on Santa Anita's Cushion Track (with Twice Over just behind him in third) and fourth at Meydan in this very race last year, beaten just over a length. Nineteen of his 23 starts have seen him finish first or second, an enviable record. He should be right there at the finish, with his regular partner astride to guide him.
6. Victoire Pisa (by Neo Universe) – trained by Katsuhiko Sumii, ridden by Mirco Demuro
Another trying a surface switch away from turf, he is the first of the three Japanese contenders, none of which are to be taken lightly – one remembers the valiant runner-up effort of Nakayama Festa in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe last October. However, Victoire Pisa was somewhat comprehensively beaten on both his overseas efforts and it would come as a mild surprise if he should deliver a lifetime best here.
7. Musir (by Redoute's Choice) – trained by Mick de Kock, ridden by Christophe Soumillon
Something of a Meydan hero, albeit trained in South Africa and bred in Australia, he has been pointed to this race since he scored in the UAE Derby at the corresponding meeting last year. At both his starts this term, he has been second and while the earlier of his two losses could be put down to an 11-month absence from the track, his easy defeat at the hands of Twice Over last time suggests that the latter is superior.
8. Gitano Hernando (by Hernando) – trained by Marco Botti, ridden by John Murtagh
Take a close look at last year's running of this race – Gitano Hernando might well have won with a clear run! Equally adept on a synthetic surface as on turf, he was sold a few days ago by Team Valor & Gary Barber to Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen President, for a sum reported to be $4,000,000. His rider knows what it takes to post bold strokes on the big canvas of an international festival. Gitano Hernando seems a notch below the best but could place.
9. Transcend (by Neo Universe) – trained by Takayuki Yasuda, ridden by Shinji Fujita
The second of the trio from the Land of the Rising Sun, he seems best suited to the surface as he was successful in the Japan Cup Dirt last December. What's more, he claimed his seasonal debut on the same footing last month. However, he appears to have a significant amount of leeway to bridge to match the class of some of his rivals on his maiden international assignment.
10. Poet's Voice (by Dubawi) – trained by Saeed bin Suroor, ridden by Lanfranco Dettori
The choice of Godolphin's retained rider, Frankie Dettori, this progressive colt still has something to find on the form book to take home an event of this nature. Although he recorded a very decent effort at Meydan earlier this month, that came on turf and so apart from the class divide, he also has to cope with the unfamiliar Tapeta surface. As a grandson of Dubai Millennium and Chief's Crown, he certainly has the pedigree to thrive on it..
11. Richard's Kid (by Lemon Drop Kid) – trained by Satish Seemar, ridden by Richard Mullen
From the yard of our very own Satish Seemar, this six-year-old has been campaigning hitherto in California under the tutelage of Bob Baffert. He did participate in last year's renewal of the Dubai World Cup, finishing 7th, just 2-1/2 lengths from the winner and made his 2011 debut in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 at Meydan – but was comprehensively outpointed by several of those he faces here. There's no real reason to think he will jump up and reverse that form.
12. Twice Over (by Observatory) – trained by Henry Cecil, ridden by Thomas Queally
Arguably in the best form of his life, this game performer showed his readiness for the tough task ahead with a clinical display in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 on March 3rd, where the beaten brigade included four of today's rivals. In an interview in Newmarket last week, Lord Teddy Grimthorpe, Racing Manager of the all-conquering Juddmonte stable, advised this writer that the six-year-old was in good shape. A wide draw seems to be the only real hurdle Twice Over faces in his quest for glory.
13. Buena Vista (by Special Week) – trained by Hiroyoshi Matsuda, ridden by Ryan Moore
Never worse than third from her 14 lifetime starts, this unassuming Japanese miss knows how to run! A victory for her would push her past the earnings of 2000 Japanese Horse of the Year, T.M.Opera O, believed to be the world's highest-ever earner (with $16,200,300 to his credit). The booking of English ace Ryan Moore is a significant boost to her chances but once again the question of adapting to the surface arises. However, we know she likes her surroundings with her having run second in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan last year.
14. Golden Sword (by High Chaparral) – trained by Mike de Kock, ridden by Kevin Shea
He wasn't even supposed to be running till his stablemate Bold Silvano, the early favourite for this race, had to be withdrawn last week. Still, he is no pushover at Meydan with a couple of victories over the track last month. Yet it would come as a major surprise if the former inmate of Ballydoyle is able to cope with all of his 13 rivals here.
All the supporting events have well-filled fields. The Thoroughbred programme begins at 6:45 p.m. IST with the Al Quoz Sprint (1000 m.) on turf sponsored by Emirates NBD, where the South African globe-trotter J J The Jet Plane should oblige. Then comes the Godolphin Mile (1600 m.) on Tapeta sponsored by Etisalat, which seems to be a toss-up between Conveyance, I Want Revenge and Red Jazz.
The UAE Derby (1900 m.) on Tapeta, sponsored by the Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group, is the race which first showcased the abundant talent of Greentree Stud's China Visit. This year's renewal could fall to a filly but whether that is Mahbooba, Reem or Khawlah remains to be seen. Dettori has chosen Brazilian ace Xin Xu Lin. When the clock strikes 8:35 p.m. IST, ten sprinters will clash in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (1200 m.) on Tapeta, sponsored by Gulf News. Last year's one-two, Kinsale King and Rocket Man cross swords again and on current form the latter should gain the edge.
A pair of rich turf events follow -the Dubai Duty Free (1800 m.), sponsored by Dubai Duty Free, where Singapore's Better Than Ever (14-from-15) and Hong Kong's Beauty Flash will attempt to outpoint Debussy and Presvis, and the Dubai Sheema Classic (2410 m.), sponsored by China Guangsha, where Japan's Rulership could face a stiff challenge from Dangerous Midge and Redwood.
That will set the stage for the feature and it should be an exciting evening for India-based racing fans who can watch on TEN ACTION, beginning at 6:30 p.m. IST
This year the race, which will be run under lights at 11:05 p.m. IST this evening, sees a field of 14 high-class customers headed to the starting gate. An eclectic mix of equines and humans – hailing from such diverse locations as the Chechen Republic, England, Ireland, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and the United States of America – is represented. Between them the 14 declared starters have earned the colossal sum of $40,816,859, ranging from the phenomenal $12,364,499 banked by Buena Vista down to the lowly $201,408 grossed by the 80,000 guineas foal purchase, Prince Bishop. Altogether, the prize money for the 7 Thoroughbred races alone on the card is $26 million, more than on any other day of racing anywhere in the world. If they all start, as many as 71 international runners can expect to be seen during the evening, flying the flags of 13 nations.
A quick run-through of the form of the contenders for the night's feature, in order of card number, follows:
1. Fly Down (by Mineshaft) – trained by Nick Zito, ridden by Julien Leparoux
This colt is good enough to win at his best – but he has not been at his best of late. His last win came in May 2010, and although his performance in the Breeders Cup Classic – 3rd to Blame and Zenyatta – was noteworthy, he has run only on dirt and in the USA, and the question of how he adapts to a different environment and surface (Tapeta) remains.
2. Monterosso (by Dubawi) – trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni, ridden by Mickael Barzalona
Twice a winner on the All Weather at Lingfield early in his career, he has been kept exclusively to the turf in eight starts since, recording the most recent of his six victories under the same rider at Meydan earlier this month. A Group 2 winner, he has yet to show he can jump up to Group 1 level but certainly should put up a good show, more so if he makes the running in a race virtually devoid of runners with early speed. That was how Gloria de Campeao upset his better-fancied rivals last year.
3. Prince Bishop (by Dubawi) – trained by Saeed bin Suroor, ridden by Ahmed Ajtebi
The second of Godolphin's three runners, he has a pair of Group wins in France to his credit in France last year. Perhaps he was rusty when a modest fifth in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 earlier this month but the fact that Frankie Dettori has deserted him does not inspire confidence.
4. Cape Blanco (by Galileo) – trained by Aidan O'Brien, ridden by Jamie Spencer
For several reasons, he is a very interesting runner here: firstly, he sports the Coolmore banner which has been absent at the Dubai carnival for over five years; secondly, a significant share in him was recently sold to Jim and Fitriani Hay; thirdly, Aidan O'Brien has chosen this race – on an artificial surface – in preference to the Dubai Sheema Classic on turf the same evening. Presumably the idea is to enhance his stallion appeal to the US market, should he win. Barring a pair of clunkers he threw in on two big occasions, Cape Blanco has been very consistent and ought to go close.
5. Gio Ponti (by Tale Of The Cat) – trained by Christophe Clement, ridden by Ramon Dominguez
This admirable six-year-old is equally effective on all surfaces – he was second to Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Classic on Santa Anita's Cushion Track (with Twice Over just behind him in third) and fourth at Meydan in this very race last year, beaten just over a length. Nineteen of his 23 starts have seen him finish first or second, an enviable record. He should be right there at the finish, with his regular partner astride to guide him.
6. Victoire Pisa (by Neo Universe) – trained by Katsuhiko Sumii, ridden by Mirco Demuro
Another trying a surface switch away from turf, he is the first of the three Japanese contenders, none of which are to be taken lightly – one remembers the valiant runner-up effort of Nakayama Festa in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe last October. However, Victoire Pisa was somewhat comprehensively beaten on both his overseas efforts and it would come as a mild surprise if he should deliver a lifetime best here.
7. Musir (by Redoute's Choice) – trained by Mick de Kock, ridden by Christophe Soumillon
Something of a Meydan hero, albeit trained in South Africa and bred in Australia, he has been pointed to this race since he scored in the UAE Derby at the corresponding meeting last year. At both his starts this term, he has been second and while the earlier of his two losses could be put down to an 11-month absence from the track, his easy defeat at the hands of Twice Over last time suggests that the latter is superior.
8. Gitano Hernando (by Hernando) – trained by Marco Botti, ridden by John Murtagh
Take a close look at last year's running of this race – Gitano Hernando might well have won with a clear run! Equally adept on a synthetic surface as on turf, he was sold a few days ago by Team Valor & Gary Barber to Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen President, for a sum reported to be $4,000,000. His rider knows what it takes to post bold strokes on the big canvas of an international festival. Gitano Hernando seems a notch below the best but could place.
9. Transcend (by Neo Universe) – trained by Takayuki Yasuda, ridden by Shinji Fujita
The second of the trio from the Land of the Rising Sun, he seems best suited to the surface as he was successful in the Japan Cup Dirt last December. What's more, he claimed his seasonal debut on the same footing last month. However, he appears to have a significant amount of leeway to bridge to match the class of some of his rivals on his maiden international assignment.
10. Poet's Voice (by Dubawi) – trained by Saeed bin Suroor, ridden by Lanfranco Dettori
The choice of Godolphin's retained rider, Frankie Dettori, this progressive colt still has something to find on the form book to take home an event of this nature. Although he recorded a very decent effort at Meydan earlier this month, that came on turf and so apart from the class divide, he also has to cope with the unfamiliar Tapeta surface. As a grandson of Dubai Millennium and Chief's Crown, he certainly has the pedigree to thrive on it..
11. Richard's Kid (by Lemon Drop Kid) – trained by Satish Seemar, ridden by Richard Mullen
From the yard of our very own Satish Seemar, this six-year-old has been campaigning hitherto in California under the tutelage of Bob Baffert. He did participate in last year's renewal of the Dubai World Cup, finishing 7th, just 2-1/2 lengths from the winner and made his 2011 debut in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 at Meydan – but was comprehensively outpointed by several of those he faces here. There's no real reason to think he will jump up and reverse that form.
12. Twice Over (by Observatory) – trained by Henry Cecil, ridden by Thomas Queally
Arguably in the best form of his life, this game performer showed his readiness for the tough task ahead with a clinical display in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 on March 3rd, where the beaten brigade included four of today's rivals. In an interview in Newmarket last week, Lord Teddy Grimthorpe, Racing Manager of the all-conquering Juddmonte stable, advised this writer that the six-year-old was in good shape. A wide draw seems to be the only real hurdle Twice Over faces in his quest for glory.
13. Buena Vista (by Special Week) – trained by Hiroyoshi Matsuda, ridden by Ryan Moore
Never worse than third from her 14 lifetime starts, this unassuming Japanese miss knows how to run! A victory for her would push her past the earnings of 2000 Japanese Horse of the Year, T.M.Opera O, believed to be the world's highest-ever earner (with $16,200,300 to his credit). The booking of English ace Ryan Moore is a significant boost to her chances but once again the question of adapting to the surface arises. However, we know she likes her surroundings with her having run second in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan last year.
14. Golden Sword (by High Chaparral) – trained by Mike de Kock, ridden by Kevin Shea
He wasn't even supposed to be running till his stablemate Bold Silvano, the early favourite for this race, had to be withdrawn last week. Still, he is no pushover at Meydan with a couple of victories over the track last month. Yet it would come as a major surprise if the former inmate of Ballydoyle is able to cope with all of his 13 rivals here.
All the supporting events have well-filled fields. The Thoroughbred programme begins at 6:45 p.m. IST with the Al Quoz Sprint (1000 m.) on turf sponsored by Emirates NBD, where the South African globe-trotter J J The Jet Plane should oblige. Then comes the Godolphin Mile (1600 m.) on Tapeta sponsored by Etisalat, which seems to be a toss-up between Conveyance, I Want Revenge and Red Jazz.
The UAE Derby (1900 m.) on Tapeta, sponsored by the Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group, is the race which first showcased the abundant talent of Greentree Stud's China Visit. This year's renewal could fall to a filly but whether that is Mahbooba, Reem or Khawlah remains to be seen. Dettori has chosen Brazilian ace Xin Xu Lin. When the clock strikes 8:35 p.m. IST, ten sprinters will clash in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (1200 m.) on Tapeta, sponsored by Gulf News. Last year's one-two, Kinsale King and Rocket Man cross swords again and on current form the latter should gain the edge.
A pair of rich turf events follow -the Dubai Duty Free (1800 m.), sponsored by Dubai Duty Free, where Singapore's Better Than Ever (14-from-15) and Hong Kong's Beauty Flash will attempt to outpoint Debussy and Presvis, and the Dubai Sheema Classic (2410 m.), sponsored by China Guangsha, where Japan's Rulership could face a stiff challenge from Dangerous Midge and Redwood.
That will set the stage for the feature and it should be an exciting evening for India-based racing fans who can watch on TEN ACTION, beginning at 6:30 p.m. IST
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