The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby (presented by Yum! brands) is scheduled to take place at 6:24 p.m. local time on Saturday, May 7th (3:54 am IST on Sunday, May 8th) It will be the 11th race of a long 13-race card at Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky, one that will surely test the patience of racegoers!

As many as 22 three-year-olds accepted for the rich event, but only 20 can run so Sway Away and Ruler On Ice will have to wait for another day. Assuming all 20 actually start, the gross prize – which includes starting fees of $25,000 each – will amount to $2,196,800 (almost Rs 10 crore), of which the winner's share is $1,436,800 (about Rs 6 crore, 47 lakh).

The weather forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain, with scattered thunderstorms, and a high of 73 degrees F (21 degrees C). Should the rain arrive before the race, it would of course have a bearing on the result, as it did in the last couple of years when the track turned sloppy. It is notable that neither Mine That Bird (2009) nor Super Saver (2010) ever won another race!

With so many runners in the Derby, all traversing the unfamiliar trip of 10 furlongs for the first time, there is usually a great deal of jostling and scrimmaging which impedes the chances of some. Hence favourites do not have a great record. Also the pace could make the difference. One commentator suggests that those perceived as the main contenders – barring the enigmatic Uncle Mo – have not displayed the required level of form and that some unexposed rising star will carry the day.

Anyway, this year's pre-race favourite, at 4 to 1, is Robert La Penta's Dialed In (Mineshaft - Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat). The Florida Derby winner has an excellent 4-3-1-0 record, is a late-finishing type and has been drawn 8 (the same gate from which ten previous winners have started). To be ridden by expatriate Frenchman Julien Leparoux, the dark-hued colt is trained by veteran Nick Zito, who changed his pre-race tactics this year by keeping his ward at the Palm Meadows Training Centre in Florida, thereby escaping the excessively wet spring in Kentucky. La Penta has been an enthusiastic investor on the turf and has yet to win this race, though he went close with Ice Box (2nd) last year.

Next on the morning line at 9 to 2 is last year's undisputed leader of the crop, Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie - Playa Maya, by Arch), whose shock defeat at his previous appearance at odds of 1/10 took away some of the lustre of his hitherto glittering achievements. A legitimate excuse – a gastrointestinal infection – was found for that below-par effort, but the wet spring has meant the handsome colt might not have had adequate seasoning. Trainer Todd Pletcher put up a brave face when his charge was drawn wide – he is scheduled to start from post 18, with regular rider John Velasquez in the irons. New York businessman Mike Repole owns the strapping bay, whose record reads 5-4-0-1.

At the time of writing, there is some doubt about his participation as a team of veterinarians is to examine him on Friday. Some say this is a smokescreen intended to ensure longer odds. Rival trainer Bob Baffert went on record to say, "Uncle Mo looks fantastic out there to me. He's the best horse in the race. I don't care what rumours you hear. From what I've seen visually, there is nothing there that tells me the horse isn't ready to run. I'm not buying that crap." Incidentally, the 1982 winner Gato Del Sol came out of gate # 18.

Zayat Stables best chance of a Derby win since Eskendereya broke down early last year comes through Nehro (Mineshaft – The Administrator, by Afleet). His last two efforts have seen him finish as runner-up by a neck, behind Pants On Fire in the Louisiana Derby, and then to Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby. On both occasions he made up a lot of ground in the straight and perhaps is crying out for a longer trip. Corey Nakatani will pilot the Steve Asmussen-trained colt, quoted as low as 6 to 1, despite the fact that he has only a maiden victory to his credit and that he has drawn post 19, from which no previous Derby winner has come.

The next best fancied at 10 to 1 is the interesting Midnight Interlude (War Chant - Midnight Kiss, by Groom Dancer), winner last time out of the Santa Anita Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert is aiming for his fourth Derby victory with this improving colt, who has been working brilliantly. Although he broke his maiden while leading throughout, he does not need to be up front and Victor Espinoza needs to ensure he doesn't make his move too soon. Draw 15 is not ideal but better than being drawn 1, as Baffert's Lookin At Lucky was last year—which arguably cost him the race.

Whether the same fate will befall Archarcharch (Arch – Woodman's Dancer, by Woodman) remains to be seen. His owner, Robert Yagos, who buys just two horses a year, was happy just to be there and does not think the inside no. 1 position will hurt his colt, who has twice come from way off the pace in his 6 starts. Trainer William "Jinks" Fires handles the $60,000 yearling, who will be ridden by his son-in-law, Jon Court. The current quote is 10 to 1 against the Arkansas Derby winner, who was 25 to 1 when he landed his biggest score.

Of the remaining fifteen, here are notes on some of the more interesting ones:

Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux – Dalicia, by Acatenango) is by a Brazilian stallion out of a German mare. This chestnut with an international pedigree is on the upgrade, and despite his lack of experience on dirt, he could well make the frame. At 30 to 1, he would be a great overlay. Robby Albarado, who broke his nose in a fall, is set to return in time to guide the Graham Motion-trained colt, who was bred by and races for Team Valor. He is drawn 16.

Master of Hounds (Kingmambo - Silk and Scarlet, by Sadler's Wells) has made the trip from Ireland to Churchill Downs before. On the previous occasion, Aidan O'Brien's charge was sixth, albeit defeated only 3 lengths, in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Since then, he has been beaten by a whisker in the UAE Derby over 1900m, with a number of talented runners behind. Even though untried on dirt, he ought not to be as long as 30 to 1, more so as leading rider Garrett Gomez will be on board. They will break from gate 11.

Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno – Ponche de Leona, by Ponche) is a seasoned colt, having made 8 starts, and is consistent to boot, never having been out of the first four. Trained by Kathy Ritvo, he won't actually turn 3 till June! Rajiv Maragh rides the Florida-bred, who lost a shoe when third in the Louisiana Derby. Drawn 13, he will be well up early and at his best must go close at 12 to 1.

If that colt boasts a lady trainer, Pants On Fire (Jump Start - Cabo De Noche, by Cape Town) has a lady rider in Rosie Napravnik, who would become the first female to ride a Kentucky Derby winner should her mount win. Starting from gate 7, the colt has never run well unless in the leading group early, and it will take all of 23-year-old Ms. Napravnik's skills to steer the 20 to 1 shot to victory. He is trained by Kelly Breen.

Shackleford (Forestry – Oatsee, by Unbridled) surprised most by proving tenacious in the Florida Derby – it was only in the last stride that the front-runner was caught by Dialed In. Should the track at Churchill Downs favour speed, the flashy chestnut could prove tough to catch – but will he last out the trip? Jesus Castanon will attempt to rate the home-bred colt, who has been sharpened up by trainer Dale Romans with a sparkling work out.

Of course, any of the remaining ten could win! That's why they are running in a year as confusing as this. Should the real Uncle Mo show up, it could be a "no contest"; otherwise it's anyone's race. The attached chart lists the runners, their card numbers (same as their draw numbers), trainers, riders and the projected odds.

Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Gr.1)
Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
Saturday, May 7, 2011. 1-1/4 miles. $2,000,000 added. For 3-y-o