@ Shaps
Class is important and give importance to it first.
Then comes weight effects.

You know The Jockey Club was established in 1750 in England, codified the Rules of Racing and one of its members, Admiral Rous laid the foundations of the handicapping system. Penetrometer reading taken and published by Race clubs to help handicapping students for the last few years. This help to adjust projected times to a certain extent.

The penetrometer reading is obtained using the following method:
A 1 kilogram weight is released by a trigger action and falls 1 metre down a shaft, which in-turn hits a 1 centimetre square rod into the soil profile. The 1 centimetre square rod has 1 centimetre increments as the measurement for the depth the rod that has entered into the soil profile. This action is undertaken 3 times in the one position, therefore giving 3 readings eg: 2.5, 4.5, 6.5.

A formula is used to calculate the reading and is based on the average figure for the entire course. To obtain this figure there are 6 readings taken every 200m around course. Three of the 6 readings are taken 2m from the running rail and then the remaining 3 readings are taken 4m from the running rail. Each reading is recorded and then all figures are entered into a formula that will provide an average. This average then becomes your race day penetrometer reading and will correspond to your set ratings – Good / Soft/ Heavy. Eg: Track – “Good”, Penetrometer – 4.25 cm. These readings will differ from track to track due to varying soil types and rail positions. Therefore you cannot compare readings against different tracks ie Mahalaxmi compared to Bangalore Track. Look RCTC readings, they declare it in between 1 cm to 2 cms. HRC declares PM in between 3 cm to 5.5 cm. Mysore 2 to 3 cms. DRC 1.5 to 2.3. Have you ever tried to get a clarification from the respective clubs WHY THEY ARE GIVING SUCH VARIANCE in readings.

RWITC publishes they use Longchamp method. Sadly neither LONGCHAMP RACE TRACK OFFICIALS nor MAHALAXMI TRACK officials are available for giving an explanation on this subject. Then how can you calculate the timings precisely. You are talking about P.M exhaustively, explain what is your knowledge on this topic? Can you write and educate the Horse Talkers on PM and its effects on various tracks in India. Yours truly also having only half-baked knowledge on this topic. But whatever self education we people have on this subject is not sufficient to fine tune this subject. Sometime we get the results, most of the time not.

Horses cannot speak and some thnig was wrong with her,as her run wss not A true one.Let us accept that.

Next time out a ready made winner

Not right to simply jump to conclusion.
At the 900 mts when SILVER IKON came in there was jostling and suddenly MALAWI was disturbed and lost about 3 to 4 lengths. from that JOSTLE it never recovered and was flying at the finish.
I backed SILVER IKON is a different issue but my view is MALAWI was not hooked.

@MAD MAX,

You have gone back on your word.

You wanted to end this topic on 17-3-17, and stop further arguments,so honoured your word and stopped furhter arguements/ write-up's.

But, you come back to this same topic again. WHY ?????

I could go on and on, but did not, for the above reason.

Hope some gain knowledge about P R and it's effects on a race, before calculating the timings.

Follow Malawi on longer distances. There is a horse called broker jones which is from the same pedigree. Malawi might have won 11 meters race on a slow moving race. Timings dont really matter in racing. Its the class that matters and silver icon won on it's class

@ Shaps
@ Chanakya
@ SFP
@ All Others

My simple statement that (1) horses ran in 3 YEAR OLD PENALTY CLASS OR 3 YEAR MILLION RACES ARE BETTER THAN OTHER 3 YEAR OLDS.

(1) horses WON in 3 YEAR OLD PENALTY CLASS OR 3 YEAR MILLION RACES ARE BETTER THAN OTHER 3 YEAR OLD MAIDEN WINNERS.

Such horses win 9 out of 10 times
---------------------
Now I am taking you all to today's THIRD & FOURTH RACES in Delhi Races.
3rd Race Division-1 (3 year old Maiden Races)
4th Race Division-2 (3 year old Maiden Races)

3rd race - Most of the horses ran in 3 year old maiden races, few are making debut. You cannot find a single horse that ran in a 3 YEAR OLD PENALTY CLASS OR A MILLION RACE in their LAST RUN. So I am leaving this race.

4th race at DRC today:
Horse No.1, Conquering Bid ran in race 174 - (A race for 3 year olds in a Penalty Class. All other horses ran in 3 year old Maiden class. Rest making their debut. So I considered CONQUERING BID a better class up animal from IS Parmer's stable, running in a mediocre field.

Further I projected its timing to 67.5 seconds over 1100m because of the class factor. So I picked this second favourite horse as unbeatable. Bangalore Tote paid Rs 31 for a tenner. It clocked 67.21 seconds in today's race.

I request all handicappers including SHAPS, kindly publish your projected timings of all runners in this race and check whether AAO SHAO, GO GET THEM or CONQUERING BID is better on timings? I know nobody will pick Conquering Bid because it finished 9th out of 9 horses, i.e. around 2 seconds behind the winner last time. It comes in the contention because of the superior class in which it ran last time.

It's a pity, people trying for one up-manship.

Not one intelligent reply, till now.

Sad to see senior's here not to acknowledge that a maiden horse shows improved performance after it's very first run.

Also many do not seem to have any idea about P R readings, and it's effect on the pace and timing of any race. Adjustments in different P R readings, is an art in itself.Many are showing the timings, but not one is showing the timing, at equal P R readings of these few horses.Did anyone calculate the timings of Silver Ikon with P R reading 4.0 , to compare with Malawi ?

A horse does not know if it is running in a million race or a terms, higher or lower class, big prize money or small prize money. It runs on it's individual merits, and track,swimming,health and weight it carries on that particular day.

Ultimately, it looks like shaps calculations are more correct and reasonable than others.

Broadly speaking keeping my reading between the races run by both horses in their previous races.

Silver Ikon did clock 1:13.23 secs and won relatively easy (implying that it could clock better), was given 50 days to improve and come on from that race.

Malawi clocked her 5.5 furlongs in 1:07.73 which roughly equates to 1:13.88 secs (simple method, not factoring the difference in penetrometer readings & furlong to furlong fractions in the race). Malawi had 22 days later to sharpen up for the Million.

Simply put, the difference in timing is a minimum of 4.25 lengths in favour of Silver Ikon.

Not arguing as to who the better horse was before the race but Malawi should NOT have given Silver Ikon that many lengths into the straight.

The rest as they say is history.

Looking at the performance of Mauritania on the preceding day, it will take some really bad training by Paddy to have Malawi beating his ward ever again (even over 5.5 furlongs).

Lastly, the bookmakers are in the business to make money and for them to protect their longevity they need to open a minimum of 30% of race favourites as 'SENTIMENT FAVOURITES' which are most likely to attract a lot of punting on the basis of their connections rather than the horses ability. Its for us to identify these fakes and to make an informed decision to punt or abstain.

@ Mad Max... you are 100% correct with your reading of the race prior to the start.

@ Shaps,

Malawi is not the same 'class' as the winner!

On 'big'(Derby, Invitation etc.) days every Tom, Dick,& Harry (owner/trainer/jockey and their connections) want to win and therefore, want to be seen. This results in competitive racing and unexpected results often.

Did not happen this time. Invested 9000 in jackpot - got 3 consolations, adding upto less than 4000!

Malawi will never be able to beat the winner at level weight in future, I feel.

@Mad Max,

where did you project these timings before the race?

JP is spot on...
I had noted the time clocked by the winner when it won by over 10 lengths, it was faster than Class 2 time that very day. And considering the widening margin of victory and further scope for improvement Malawi had to beat potentially a C 1 horse which was always not going to be easy and I was wary of that.
But after all this I thought Malawi had the class to tackle this tough set and still backed it....to my dismay.
The right horse may have won but Malawi run has to be put under scanner by the authorities.

What is the pedigree of Silver ikon Green coast mostly winners in HYD with one odd in mum and BNG. where as Malwai is out of Western aristocrat .

One exmaple to prove my point.

Comman Wealth a got abroad [won andl lost the mds gu''.nas]Ran a s a odds on fsv ,in race 188 Backed down to less evensand runs 4 lts behind [lost rs 1000 on it ]fine

On sunday in a better company runs behind SAA beating many top rated horses odds for me 3.5 for place for me, so recoverd my money with profit Pay out here rs 10 lakhs for the owners .

The moral is owners run for their sake not ours.

Malawi also took rs 1000 at 14/10 ,and be rest assured will recover from this horse only.
Never slowly off loses few lts at the start.

@ Max

Very nice to see you share your input.

This is the type of knowledge-sharing that makes this site interesting, and one for the notebook for reference.

SHAPS of course had his own calculations, but looks like his calculation did not work on that given day, may be because of the intent of the connections.

Anyways keep it coming !!

@ Shaps
I never talk thru my pockets.
I have statistics in front of me. All centers, all 3 year old races, ordinary, million and penalty classes. If you have time, go and check race-center wise.
Any horse ran in a Million race or a 3 year old penalty race, is running in a maiden race for 3 year olds, the one who ran in former category will win 9 out of 10. Same logic applies again, when 3 year olds winners are competing again in a Terms Race for 3 year olds (Penalty Class). Here you have to find the horses won in Million races, or 3 year old penalty classes. They will win 9 out of 10 races. Maiden winners like Malawi competing in Million races may win 1 out of 10 races. So MALAWI was a FALSE FAVOURITE.

Remember, 3 year old Horses WON in Penalty Classes or Million Races are considered ONE CLASS UP than the MAIDEN WINNERS. Because the trainers/owners enter their best horses in MILLION RACES and 3 YEAR OLD PENALTY TERMS RACES. There wont be TOO MANY PEOPLE here to teach you to identify good horses.

In Horse Talk you will find more than 100 Handicappers, more than 100 Speed Rating specialists, more than 100 Dynamic handicappers. Do you think all these people are getting same identical projected timings for these horses. Do you believe me, I am also doing my ratings, I projected Silver Ikon and Kangra's timings below 73 seconds. Malwawi's my projected timing was above 73.5 seconds. Jo jeetha wohi sikandar in horse racing. It does not mean I am always right. Sometime my work brings results, sometime yours. So we have to end this arguments here.

Silver ikon won by 10 ,lengths bcos apache sunrise was withdrawn .wait and see Malawi will compete in the future classics with apache sunrise.silver ikon won't be sighted.

It will be difficult, rather very difficult to 'also ran' to beat the winner at level weight in any future race.

Yes, as the saying goes - load (weight) will stop a freight train will also apply to the winner...

It walked out of the gates,whether it is deliberately or not will be known inits next start.i think it was a deliberate ploy.Anyhow I dont think medium range punters had wagered any single penny on that horse.big bettors might have lost a fortune iam sure.

malawi should have won

100 % right shaps.

This is going on for a long time. Punters have to raise their voice, if they want to survive in racing. Not only sandesh, it's happening with most of the top riders in saddle.

Some win, some loose, that's not important. Let us point out when wrong doings are taking place, for a better tomorrow, and all punters should co-operate to make racing free and fair.

Let's praise when required, and point fingers when mischief is taking place.

I feel it is right to reply to few, especially Mad Max, on this subject.

.....Silver Ikon ran when the penetrometer reading was 3.7
.....Lord Buckingham ran when penetrometer reading was 3.5
.....Malawi ran when the penetrometer reading was 4.0

Now, if one knows how to convert/calculate the timing readings of different penetrometer readings, one will get a clear picture of the expected time of Malawi. More ever improvement of any horse after it's first run alongwith it's latest track gives a clear picture of this horse's expected running, especially with a top jockey. That's the reason it was the racing public's first hot choice.

Stop fooling punter is absolutely right in his predictions. This is the game played by the connections frequently, if you have noticed.

Hope, you get a clear picture now.

Let us not querrel with each other and try and pull down ones comments
You are no one to tell any one what to say and write .

I standby my comments.time will tell.

@ SFP
Please restrain from making such comments. Malawi was my choice when it last won. So is Mauritana yesterday. I played both of them when they won. But yesterday, I played Silver Ikon Win ahead of Kangra after the paddock parade. Kangra was a certain SHP due to the class in which it won. My humble request is, note down this piece of information, Malawi won't next race. We both should remember this.

Mad Max is right. The winner was too good. In its previous win it won by 10 1/2 lengths and best time clocked that day even bettering the timing clocked higher class horses.

Mad Max my prediction
Next time this daughter of Giacosa will hack the field.
Shaps is right the connections did not want her to win.
Please see last run was lying 6th at 100 mtrs covered ground like a bullet to win.Beat Mauritana [who won like a champ on Sat]

Sunday kept back last .not on job Simple as that.

The owners answer to some one who asked te same question.''We do not run horses for you but for us''.

You have to accept this if you want to carry no racing,

@ Shaps

Malawi, Lordbuckingham both are winners of maiden races - by 2-1/4 and 2-3/4 lengths respectively. SILVER IKON and KANGRA are MILLION RACE WINNERS. Silver IKON won by 10-1/4 races is a superior class animal, should win again. Any 3 year olds competing in Penalty classes or Million races are always better than maiden winners. Malawi may struggle again in its next run also.