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Colts Championship - One Of Its Kind !

By Mad Max | 25-Jun-2017
My God, I have not seen such a race in my entire life where several records are broken.

Total 15 runners. Out of which 11 runners have the benefit of a Mock Race run since the summer season started on 13th May. The list is long, so I list the horses that did not enjoyed any Mock Race advantage, they are - Chief of Command, Hartnell, Sea King, and Ultimate Warrior. In short, I wanted to say all these 4 horses are not in the fray as any serious contenders. Now coming back to the Terms race of this kind, where all are running on level weight, irrespective of what they earned in stakes or in rating in the past.

If the official handicapper had the right to penalise these horses, based on their past performance how much weight these horses were asked to carry today? No Idea. That is a hypothetical question. May be Mr.Sun can explain such things us convincingly. Howevever, I take another route - Karnataka Juvenile Million Grade-II, a terms race for 3 year old. Colts and Geldings carried 52 Kgs and Fillies 50.5 Kgs. Penalised for 2 win by 3 Kg, for 3 wins by 5 kg, for 4 or more wins by 6 Kg., Winner of a value of a race of Rs. 10 Lakh another 1 kg, 2 such races or a race value of Rs.15 Lakh should carry 1.5 kg, 2 or such races or a race value of Rs.30 Lakh should carry 2 Kgs extra. If you implement these penalties on today's field, we will get the following result.
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1. Apache Sunrise: 5 Kg extra for 3 wins. Not a big stake winner. Had the benefit of a mock race over the present distance, where it finished almost level to Capo De Capi in the middle. At best a 4th position, not more than that.

2. Big Orange: 6 kgs extra for 5 wins. No prize worth 10 lakh or above won. WHY IT IS RUNNING IN THIS FIELD?? NO CHANCE.

3. Botswana Bolt: There is no penalty whatsoever as he has won only one race. a MOCK RACE over 1400 won. Running without Pacifiers. I dont find any reason to pick this one. IGNORE.

4. Capo De Capi: Won only one race, but it was worth over 15 Lakhs, hence 1.5 kg. penalty. CDC has had two mock races this season. He is now running with Tongue Strap, and added High Heels on Right Fore Leg. These things are positive as far as trainer is concerned, but the timing it clocked in its last run was mediocre. At best a 3rd position, not more than that.

5. Castle Bridge: For 2 wins=3 Kg. Won both races prize money over Rs 15 lakhs, so CB will carry 2 kg more. Mock Race benefit. C.Alford is a total failure in Bangalore even during his younger days. This veteran will struggle.

6. Chief of Command: 6 Kgs extra for 6 wins. He won two races worth 40+19 Lakhs = 2 Kg extra. Incidentally he is the maximum stakes winner in this set. This Arazan Colt has won more than the connections can chew in Ooty and Madras, IGNORE.

7. Hartnell: For 2 wins extra 3 Kg. Another 1.5 Kg for against one race won over Rs 15 Lakh. No chance in Terms races. IGNORE

8. Moon Dancer: Extra 3 Kg. No Chance in this set.

9. Olympia Fields: No penalty. No chance.

10. Perfect Star: 1 Kg penalty as he won a race of over Rs 10 Lakh. Gelded after last run in February. No run benefit. Roza Boy is a total failure in this season. Ignore.

11. Sea King : No penalty. Need any comment.

12. Turf Star: No Penalty. Need any comment?

13. Tutankhamun: For 2 wins 3 Kg extra, another 1 kg for winning a race worth over Rs 10 lakh. For your surprise he has won Rs 30 Lakhs for his second behind Ruffina in PMMM, for which no penalty as per the terms. Won a 1400 mock race. Best timing in this field. 13 is a lucky number from Vajpayee era. In my opinion he is the horse to beat. MY CLEAR CHOICE FOR WIN.

14. Ultimate Warrior: Maiden horse. No chance.

15, Zenon: No penalty. no chance.
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MY CLEAR CHOICE FOR WIN: TUTANKHAMUN

Your opinion please.
Post Your reply

14 Replies

Ramiyer said ...

27-Jun-2017
Dear STV.
All the colts are top class only.Not a medicore set.There were 7 live contenders.We were in a dilemma to pick the winner or a sure place.Ignore this run of the fancied ones.They doesnt have a race run except a few due to the cancellation of races.Those who done the mock race benefited.Castle bridge was tracked by Trevor himself and he selected the other.It reminds me of the great Sir Richard hughes opted to ride Moonlight romance in stead of Occean and beyond and vice versa.Both the time the winner was the other horse.

Ramiyer said ...

27-Jun-2017
Dear Against odds.
I played both chief of command and Perfect star,but included Castlebridge in jp for which I got consolation.Thanks to Mad max for opening this thread and his disliking of C.Alford which reminded me of the past Aboline.History repeated Castle bridge won Start to finish.Mind you that Perfect star ran first time after gelded.It ran a great race.But I suspect its stamina for derby distance,but it will improve for sure.

Stv,chennai said ...

26-Jun-2017
Mad Max,
Your analysis of the prospects of runners in Colts was indeed interesting.
From the point of view of physical[weights and Timings]handicapping,there was not much of work to do.Most of the runners were not fit to be entered there in terms of previous performances.The much hyped TTNMN is only a 1400 winner who had not proved himself over a mile.Apache Sunrise had managed to win a race for 3 years of very mediocre set.Olympia Fields is also a middle distance winner.In this race the jockey rode a waiting race and brought him to a third position.The less said of other contenders the better[except the winner and runner up].
Castlebridge is a winner at Kolkatta as we know;The comparitive\equated timing for Bangalore was good enough.Perfect Star had won over a mile at Mumbai and was a real good prospect for winning the race.In the end CB proved superior.
In my opinion, this was one of the very mediocre colts championship races we have seen wherein only 2 to 4 runners were the real contestants and superior to all others in that race.
I hasten to admit that this is only a postmortem.

Againstodds said ...

26-Jun-2017

Ramiyer sir,

Just superb analysis. Hope you have played SHP Pl of your second choice.


With warm regards

Svkraju said ...

25-Jun-2017
DEAR MAD MAX


YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT ABOUT C. ALFORD. THERE YOU DIDNT GO FURTHER HOW WELL THIS HORSE DID WELL IN THE MOCKRACE PARTICIPATED WITH MANIFOLD WHO WAS THE WINNER OF FILLYS BUT STRUGGLED AND PRESSED TO CROSS THIS ONE. MY CHOICES ARE CASTLE BRIDGE AND TATANKMUN AS YOURS.

I LOVE YOUR ENTHUSIASM AND ANALYSIS. KEEP POSTING. ALL THE BEST

Wow said ...

25-Jun-2017
Perfect Star will win the Bangalore and Pune Derby.

Partha Ranganathan said ...

25-Jun-2017
Gentlemen, Well, it seems that the field out-thought us all! Another thought, after looking at certain past results, is that, a non-betting connection has started to bet big and land gambles. Any way, we live to fight another day. Cheers!

N Vasudevan said ...

25-Jun-2017
The first three placed horses were the ones you ignored. Your clear choice for win placed a poor fourth. There is no certainty in racing. The only certainty is its uncertainty.

Moothu said ...

25-Jun-2017
Superb analysis

Mad Max said ...

25-Jun-2017
@ Srinivasan
Out of 15 runners, 11 runners have ran in mock races. So in all counts that is an advantage. Hartnell you follow in Handicap races. Not fit into terms races.

@ Ram Iyer
BCCI is calling back Sunil Manohar Gavaskar in the hope that he will few more centuries in tests. There is another chance for Kapil dev, he will also come back to take wickets. Vasant Shinde is coming back to done silks of Byramji wards. C.Alford is a spent force like PS Chouhan. Second thing is Castle Bridge is owned by Dr.VM and his retained rider Trevor opted Capo De Capi, that shows how the connections feel the chances of Castle Bridge. I wont discourage you, you can play any horse you like. I think you are better tipster than me any day any time.

@ MSBMani
I don't under estimate Ooty horses. Last week two ooty horses won in Bangalore. Anything can happened. This article should not be taken if you think Chief of Command is a serious contender. It is your money, you are always welcome. I eliminated this horse instantly because it is running against horses that have Mock Races or race runs recently. I have seen the race of Chief of Command in Ooty, and it was also my choice on that day in 1600m Ooty Derby race.

@ SFP
Hold your money back, I dont think ZENON will finish in place money. I dont even think it will finish in first seven places.

Srinivasan said ...

25-Jun-2017
@ Madmax
Exept Ultimate warrior all horses are rated. You can see in Bol Race book (www.bolrace.com). Hartnell has won a race in Bg.Sum and UW has run a race in Bg. Sum. need not require a mock race.

Ramiyer said ...

25-Jun-2017
Dear Mad max.
You forgot the heroics of C.Alford on Aboline drawn 18 won start to finish Bangalore derby.
Most of the contenders are tracking brilliantly.You are neglecting unbeaten horses namely Apache and Chief of command,the later having a bad draw.Promising Akshay kumar from Hyd has a tough task on hand,but the trainer is the most experienced a lot.
My choice .
Chief of command/Hedge with Perfect star,it has run closely with Tuttankhamun even after the two checks.The only problem is now gelded a month back.
2.Tuttankhamun.
3.Botswana bolt.If allowed the leeway in front it will ran away.

Mbsmani said ...

25-Jun-2017
Dear Friend,
Never under estimate horses from Ooty, as they come from better climate than horses stationed at Bangalore. Chief of Command requires better consideration rather than out right rejection as stated in your col. as he is the best horse to defeat all.

Stop Fooling Punter said ...

25-Jun-2017
Mad max first congrats for your break down of the race.
No need to write more. I expect Zenon to give a tough fight to T''.MUN.So an each way bet for me

Got abroads are always late bloomers.