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The Squanderer Trophy - Class 1 Handicap

By Kk Lanka | 08-Jul-2017
This CLASS I handicap attracts me as there are many good horses and most likely we get good odds.

I tried to SPOT the winner of this race using the method of elimination.

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1) who are Jokers in the pack?
7) PEARL REWARD and 11) SALADIN

2) a. Out of the remaining field, which are the younger horsers?
3.RAFA 4.DROPS OF JUPITER 10.MICHAELA
b. Were any of those younger horses SAME CLASS SAME DISTANCE WINNERS?
IGNORE if they are NOT.
3.RAFA

3) Out of the remaining field, any apprentice jockey/s riding who has/have NO
WINS this season for the current distance +/-200 and in the same class or
above? If so, mention and eliminate them.
8. SPEED HAWK (RAYAN AHMED) and 9. ACE BADRAAN (NAZERUL ALAM)

4) Out of the remaining field, which horses do NOT have run benefit this
season? Elimante them.
NONE

5) From the remaining field, order the horses according to their current
rating.
1. INTEGRATED(84) 2. TOPSPOT(84) 3. RAFA(79) 5. BARACCHUS(76) 6.AYRTON (72)

6) Calculate the projected timings of the above horses taking into account of
their previous Weights, Distances, PN and FR. Re-order them according to
their projected timings for today's weight, distance (at par PN and FR)
3.RAFA 5.BARACCHUS 1.INTEGRATED 2.TOPSPOT 6.AYRTON

7) Now, re-order them according to their jockey's merit (winning %) in current
season.
2. TOPSPOT (Suraj) 3. RAFA (Trevor) 5. BARACCHUS (Sandesh) 1. INTEGRATED (Srinath) 6. AYRTON (John)

8) From Steps 5, 6, and 7, recalculate the order of placings by summing up
their positions respectively.

RAFA - 2 + 1 + 2 = 5
TOPSPOT - 1 + 4 + 1 = 6
BARACCHUS - 3 + 2 + 2 = 7
INTEGRATED - 1 + 3 + 4 = 8
AYRTON - 4 + 5 + 5 = 14

Most probably, the horse that topped in the above table is THE WINNER. YOU CAN PLAY IT BIG.
(Never forget to hedge it with SHP or 2nd choice place if available in the ring.)

According to me, RAFA is a CLEAR WINNER followed by TOPSPOT and BARACCHUS in the same order.

All the best.
Post Your reply

11 Replies

Svkraju said ...

08-Jul-2017
@ ESTORICAL, MAD MAX , MY BKD, AND PDS ALL GOT RIGHT ALONG WITH ONE OF MY CHOICE.


KEEP IT UP . LETS INCREASE OUR KNOELEDGE BY SHARING AND SUPPORTING EACH OTHER TO GET THE WINNER .

HOPE THE BEST DAYS WILL COME BACK AS IT IS 4 YEARS BACK WHEN VAMANAN ALIVE.


ALL THE BEST TOMORROW.

Esoterical said ...

08-Jul-2017
dear seturam ..this is handicaping timing....i give u in detail letter....calculate timing...

Sethuraman said ...

08-Jul-2017
dear esoterical BARACCUS 1-25.12 RAFA 1-25.37 HOW YOU ARRIVE THIS?

Sethuraman said ...

08-Jul-2017
dear esoterical

RAFA 1-25.37 BARACCUS 1-25.12 HOW YOU ARRIVE THIS?

Pds said ...

08-Jul-2017
Race--4-- winner from 5,8,10. I don't think any other horse will have much say in this race.

Kumar_blore said ...

08-Jul-2017
My Choice in this race would be speed hawk.
Speed hawk was not given a hard ride still managed to finish behind Rafa,am sure with decent odds on offer the horse will be genuinely tried and place looks certain.ace badraan, Ayrton and barrachus can challenge.rafa can fight for 3rd or 4th place in my selections,I hope am proved right.

Esoterical said ...

08-Jul-2017
Timing
Baraccus 1. 25. 12
Rafa 1. 25. 37
This to horse hve best timing forgot about intigrated for place
Clear winner is baraccus .. . Ply win go home hapilly

Bkd said ...

08-Jul-2017
Interesting analysis!

I hope RAFA wins, for your sake

To me, it's either MICHAELA, an upset, but a Mock Race winner nevertheless, or BARACCHUS, whose last run may be taken with a pinch of salt.A certain Place bet.

However, I'll have both these covered in my JP.

Mad Max said ...

08-Jul-2017
Normally it is Very Very difficult to pick a winner in Class-I races. Because all the entrants might have beaten each other at least once in their previous runs. The most important question is the horse's FITNESS and PREPAREDNESS for the race, it is known to its respective trainers only.

In race No. 229 RAFA won easy (4-3/4 Lengths) from Baracchus. But today Baracchus get 7 kgs so I find it better than Rafa. If you look at Race No. 58, you will find Integrated is better than TOPSPOT and Ace Baradan comes into the calculations as an outsider. If you look at Race No. 179, today Integrated and Rafa both are on equal chances. R.No. 74 will give you a different picture, Integrated won with 51 kg today gone up to 11 kg, whereas the runner up on that day SPEED HAWK gets 14 Kgs to cover 6-3/4 lengths, that makes the chances of Integrated vulnerable. So overall this race is very complicated and any horse can beat each other. It is better to watch horses during paddock parade to know its present conditions. Keep it in mind all the above points and take a decision that suits you better. However my advise is stay away from such races.

If you ask me an upsetter, I will name ACE BADRAAN, because of its draw no.3, whereas on AB's right are Rafa and Integrated (draw 2 & 1)-two fancied contenders and on his left are Ayrton and Saladin in Draw Nos 4 and 5. Irfan Ghatala always prefer to do Ghotala with ALAMs, Arshad, Anjar, may try with Nazerul today, Chances are better for this horse, provided the trainer fancy his ward. IF NOT Ace Baradan then who...? Yes BARACCHUS from Draw No. 8, Sandesh may enjoy his ride without any serious trouble from other runners, can tackle the present lot:

My choice:
ACE BARADAN Vs. BARACCHUS

Zeddzzz. said ...

08-Jul-2017
Hi K K Lanka,

My Choices For This Race Are :-

-- Rafa And Integrated.

I Think Both Will Get .70 Or Above Place Odds.
Good n Safe Bets.

All The Best.
Take Care.

Ramiyer said ...

08-Jul-2017
1.Michaela.
2. Baracchus.
3.Integrated.
4. Rafa.