Anyone taken a science class knows what is "hypothesis", which means an idea or a guess that you are going to test thru some experiment. It means something based on an informed guess. Hypotheticals are fun in any field, but it is risky in gambling because hard earned money is involved.
Jockey Sandesh has accepted four mounts, and I expect he score a double on Saturday. Which one out of the this trio - Goshawk, Serjeant at Arms and Lady Barrington ?
I Prefer him a double on:
SERJEANT AT ARMS & LADY BARRINGTON.
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SERJEANT AT ARMS scored twice with 60 kg up over the 1400m, the 'colt' is again running on ditto terms and same distance. The way he blazed past the opponents in the straight, I dont find any one getting closer this time also, unless Accolade like horse sprout wings all of a sudden. If MULTITUDE show initial speed, he may hang on for the third place. Runner-up berth is wide open, and wait for a surprise.
LADY BARRINGTON as a favourite lost to Kangra in R.No.6, and thereafter Kangra finished a fair 5th behind Manifold, clocking improved time, based on Kangra's run in R.No.6, Lady Barrington is placed well in this race, and is overdue for a win. The terms of this race also favour LB. Hope Sandesh score a double.
GOSHAWK is working well, I think MK Jadhav is preparing this horse for Pune and better deals are expected there, so it is best to LAY this horse. Castanea and Implicit Trust and favoured to fight each other, and it wont be a surprise if Chouhan scores over Trevor.
19 Replies
Kumar_blore said ...
17-Jul-2017
@Mad Max,
I have seen several post of yours,some confident winning choices and kudos to that.no doubt,it's your hard earned money and you have full rights to make your bets after all sorts of analysis.
There is nothing wrong when some of our choices fails to win, because you can't win every time.there might be few followers who would have gambled huge seeing this post since you command some respect here on horse talk,even though if you had played lady in lace for some reasons it would have been wise by not commenting here about your profits.just imagine how cheated people would have felt who followed you,if you still feel you did the right thing by commenting negative comments about lady Barrington after the race,I have nothing to say.
Enjoy your races,cheers
Mad Max said ...
16-Jul-2017
@ Dancing Dynamite
I have not only fantastic eyes, fantastic ears also. I can decipher human gestures, fingers,symbols, glares, smiles as well. Go thru following links and read whenever get time. When you are watching the paddock, you watch not only the horses parade, but also the trainers, jockeys, owners, their gestures and try to decipher what they are talking. With experience you will learn to read them and use it in horse racing to your advantage.
www.scienceofpeople.com/2015/08/how-to-speak-with-your-hands/
changingminds.org/techniques/body/parts_body_language/finger_body_language.htm
https://books.google.co.in/books?id=ClTKCQAAQBAJ&pg=PA70&lpg=PA70&dq=what+to+call+those+who+speak+with+fingers+and+symbols&source=bl&ots=ZhFjkZ_Ch1&sig=noMLB4z1Fzn55IEkR2sACNAS-c4&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiC4PbTi47VAhVDi5QKHdjwDQYQ6AEIRTAF#v=onepage&q&f=false
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fingerspelling
www.deafblind.com/deafsign.html
Even if I tipped a horse to win by several lengths, until and unless I watch the horse's movement, jockeys body language, trainers interaction with the jockeys and owners, etc., if satisfied and my instinct approve it, then only I play. After all I bet with my hard earned money so I have full freedom to bet a horse or skip a race.
Krisna said ...
16-Jul-2017
Mad Max if you win than it is
[I played Castanea at good odds..]
And if your horse loses then it is
..the jockey's body language, he gave enough clue at the paddock itself not to touch Lady Barrington
MM this is not keeping to your fair and frank attitude
Vishnu G said ...
16-Jul-2017
Mr BKD you say two horses which involve maximum payouts for the bookies(Win & Place) will rarely, if ever, be among the first three.
i will be happy if you can give some examples for my excitement
The same is true also If there is a Trevor /Sandesh /John double or treble..
Regards
Dancing Dynamite said ...
16-Jul-2017
Mm
If u r so gud in paddock looks and even can spot a loosely tied tongue strap, then why do u need to study beforehand and give a writeup.
Gud to know that u always play winners. All of us do that daily, after the race.
Bkd said ...
16-Jul-2017
Thanks Max for your kind words of appreciation!
But what about the KF Derby today?
So far, missing your graphical analysis and the shortlist thereof!
My choice is a 20/1 outsider...ZENON, doosra from Pesi's yard, followed by MANIFOLD another Pesi ward.
All in all, a tough race...bet small & each way, whatever be your fancy.
All the best!
Svkraju said ...
16-Jul-2017
@ BKD
CONGRATS . KEEP THE MOMMENTUM TO TODA ALSO.
@ MAD MAX
WAITING FOR SOME GOOD ANALYSIS.
Mad Max said ...
16-Jul-2017
@ BKD
Congrats for the Best selections.
Surprisingly after paddock parade I have noticed few things. I played only LIL outright win. And simply on the upstairs of Members enclosure one gentleman who plays 1 lakh each of his bets, challenged me Lady Barrington will not finish in first 5 places. That was enough for me for a curious check on paddock parade,etc.etc. Lady Barrington Negative things I noticed: The tongue strap was loosely tied. Poonawallas when they win wont come to the paddock (they will hid somewhere in Members enclosure), when they wont win they will come to the paddock and falsely give the impression to the racing public that they are on job, That is what they did yesterday. On this subject, I have written sometime back with example in HT. And the jockey's body language, he gave enough clue at the paddock itself not to touch. Lastly, the Guftago between Rajesh and Srinath in the paddock, and their actions, the conscious mind in me gave me the final signal. Thank you for the fantastic selection. Keep it coming again and again.
By the way in the first race, I played Castanea at good odds. The horse was partly owned by Ronak Kimmane, son of Jayaram Kimmane who is younger brother of Ratnakar Kimmane, Education Minister of Karnataka State.
Bkd said ...
15-Jul-2017
Dear Mad Max,
Re: Lady in Lace
You have also to take into consideration the relative ratings of the top horses in the field and their respective form before drawing any firm conclusion.
Your logic although sensible, may not always work out as accurately as a mathematical equation, particularly in horse racing.
Remember: Assessmen/analysis of relative strengths of the principal contenders is a very crucial exercise and that's where most of us falter in our judgement.
Try this reassessment on a retrospective basis and your evaluation skills is bound to improve.
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I had also mentioned that Accolade will not even place....a relief to the bookmakers!
My observation, over years of retrospective studies is that, two horses which involve maximum payouts for the bookies(Win & Place) will rarely, if ever, be among the first three.
Check it out....you will be surprised Max.
Best of Luck!
.
Kolramsri said ...
15-Jul-2017
Bharat ...your post is very good, and pertaining to the vagaries of our horse racing.
Mad Max said ...
15-Jul-2017
@ BKD
Tootsie Roll clocked a poor time same day Kangra clocked better timing. And you know Lady Barrington lost as a favourite to Kangra by giving weight. Now Lady Barrington is running without any penalty and should score. From May to July, the reports say she is suffering from infections etc, but I seen such horses winning the race. Lady Barrington is 4/1 and Srinath is also riding for S.Padmanabhan in other two races. So dont put your money on Lady in Ice, it has already won 3 races and the terms of this race is totally against LIL. In a handicap race LB will carry no penalty, whereas LIL has to carry 15.5 Kg, extra. Thats my Class +10 Kg, Tootsie Roll +9 kg. So the terms favour LB.
@ Raj
Yesterday night one bookies man was sitting with me, he was also advising me to stay away from SAA, because the inside information circulating around Multitude is strong. However, in my calculations, SAA still comes better than others. Win or lose, I will go with my calculations and study.
@ JP
Dont back Sandesh and Ganapathy combination, they wont win. Amber Crown not in my scheme of things.
@ Leo
Though I wish to lay Goshawk, the insiders say they are on job.
Krisna said ...
14-Jul-2017
SERJEANT AT ARMS
looks doubtful today..
Bharat said ...
14-Jul-2017
Hi All,
Why be hypothetical?
Act Scientifically.
If there is firm belief that minimum 2 of 3 Selected horses of Sandesh will win, play in the following manner:
Column A Column B
1. SAA Lady Barrington
2. SAA Goshawk
3. Lady Barrington Goshawk
Bet Amount for Column A may be Rs.X+Tax and
Bet Amount for Column B will be the amount to cover the amount lost on horse in Column A + desired profit.
Given above are 3 sets of bets viz., 1, 2 and 3.
Column B bet is to be played only if Column A bet has been lost.
If any 2 of your selected 3 bets win, you will surely be a winner,
This scientific betting system can be followed as and when you are really confident about winning of 3 horses from 3 different races.
I am sure most of you may be aware about above betting system.
I just thought of refreshing memory of all of you.
Have fun,
Best of Luck.
PS: Please do not exceed betting amount more than what you are ready to lose because this is racing and all the 3 selected horses may not win. Further, you can lose even on winning bets for no fault of yours viz., jockey does not get weighed before start of race, jockey or horse falls or there could be objection which may not be decided in your favour sometimes.
Venu Chowdary said ...
14-Jul-2017
Sandesh double
SAA
LADY BARRINGTON
Bkd said ...
14-Jul-2017
SERGEANT AT ARMS is a racing certainty today!
ACCOLADE is unlikely to even place ...a possible compensation for the bookies!
GOSHAWK, seems to me a clear winner given his last run 2nd to Romantic Star, and that too as the favourite. Should redeem losses in this mediocre company.
This would also be the first leg of Sandesh double. SAA may be taken as granted for leg-2.
LADY BARRINGTON, another Sandesh mount can be LAID till the cows come home! Not even a remote chance. That race is strictly between LADY IN LACE & TOOTSIE ROLL
Cheers!
Raj said ...
14-Jul-2017
SAA may not win if my information about racing mafia's involvement is true.
Better avoid this race. If it wins it's pittance. if mafia wins it's dooms day for heavy punters.( forget about those tote players).
Heavy betters pl avoid. Don't believe those words like no horse can win,can't come even closer etc. We have seen bank of England BeSafe loosing pathetically (intentionally)
So don't be carried away by these hyper words. It's mafia that wins in such over rated races.
Jp said ...
14-Jul-2017
Sandesh double -- SAA and Amber Crown.
Sethuraman said ...
14-Jul-2017
DEAR MAD MAX SIR,
What about AMBERCROWN?
Leo said ...
14-Jul-2017
Sandesh will win on SAA & place on Amber Crown. Difficult to win on Goshawk & Lady Barrington. Good luck
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