Caprisca is not at all tried not being ridden out, if you see the last 200 meters, perhaps been kept at bay for the big big event. Surely to pounce back. Its not possible that always you go for win, sometimes you have to measure your opposition for forthcoming big events, like Derby. So watch out..Caprisca winning Derby.

@Raceselection and svkraju
Thanks for the appreciation, guys.

@ DEAR LARRY

CONGRATS. GOOD VALUEBLE CHOICE. KEEP IT UP.

Gamblers are Excessive smokers, drinkers, womanisers, band and bear bar addicts. That is the reason I stay away from that bunch.

Congrats @Larry, I also didn't see beyond Pure Zinc, but got only 4 1/2 odds almost sold my kidney and played 90000, and now I am drunk. Drinking from the time white cone was up.

SUMMER RAYS ran like a absolute dud.

Surprising that no one has yet nominated my first fancy for this race?

Yes, I'm talking about BATELEUR..the horse that beat ADMO, who in turn, went on to win convincingly yesterday, further franks its chances.

A good bet and also the 2nd leg of my double with Carnival.

SELFIE STAR, at best, can only place second. Take an SHP chance instead or simply lay this favorite.

Thank you,

Caprisca.Days best.

larry only thing to you please see his last mock race.

Ridden out in it It will not even place
B.O.L to you

My take on this race for whatever it is worth.

I cannot see beyond Pure Zinc, the reason being that he made his debut over 1600mtrs and was just a snk behind second; quite commendable for a debut runner, and then in the second run went ahead and won the race, once again, over a mile.
Now two things that are noteworthy is that in the second run he showed an improvement of about 10lts if I take the difference in wts and PNR, and the handicapper gave him a rating of 50 after just the second run. Now, he won by a neck, and ideally the rating should have been 44, but surely the handicapper has seen something here that he felt that an additional 3kgs penalty was in order.

Just to mention, even though S.Star seems to be a strong contender, being on a hat-trick, I'm not too sure if we can go strong on this one as the win in the previous race was nothing to brag about, as the average field rating there was just 33.

Please see last 2 runs of Summer rays .won in 1. 10.65 and in 1400 mtrs came from behind 1.3/4 lts behind the winner time 1.25.30 others are far behind this time

A clear winner for me Summer rays an each way bet

in my view
SUMMER RAYS should win this from SELFIE STAR and PURE ZINC

SELFIE STAR SHOULD WIN THIS EASILY FOLLOWED BY

SUMMER RAYS
PURE ZINC
CAPRISCA

REGARDS
VAMPSVENOM

@ DEAR MAD MAX


MY SELF DECIDED TO PLAY CAPRISCA WIN AND SHP . ALL THE BEST TO YOUR SURPRISED CHOICE OF SUMMER RAYS.

VERY GOOD DEEP ANALYSIS WHICH IS A GOOD THOUGHT TO LEARN.

THANK YOU

The thing is the weights are assigned with respect to the number of races a horse has won with gender allowance

Caprisca colt won twice 57
PZ colt won once so 55.5
Selfie star filly won twice so 55.5
Summer rays filly won twice so 55.5
Bateleur colt won once so 54

So with this I have zeroed in on PZ and SR,SR being the most experienced horse in graded events ! The thing is SR has to tackle the trip which maybe a lil bit out of its comfy zone and as a winner of 2 races is carrying equal weight with a colt,hence I feel PZ who is the sole graded winner in this field having a slight favour in terms to do well

Pure Zinc/Summer Rays should annex the S A Poonawalla Million with PZ as my primary choice

I may have to eat my tie today.

Believe that Selfie Star is competing well above her pay grade. If not third she should run fourth.

The enterprising should eat both win and place.

@ Indiarace Admin,

Just 10 minutes back I have sent my analysis to you to publish under this thread. Unfortunately there WAS a mistake hence I need YOU to correct it at your end and kindly publish. I dont have a copy of the ANALYSIS WHICH I ALREADY SENT TO YOU, hence please do it THE FOLLOWING CORRECTION for me.

Please DELETE last three lines AT THE BOTTOM FROM MY EARLIER POST and ADD THE FOLLOWING - TWO LINES INSTEAD OF THAT - PLEASE: Hope you will oblige.
------------------

FINAL CHOICE:
4-SUMMER RAYS-MAY UPSET 2-SELFIE STAR
--------------------------

My 2 Penny on this race !
-------------------------

SVK Raju recalls here Caprisca beaten Selfie Star in the past. OK done, I also take past races into consideration, provided the winner in that race still retain and carry same form and fitness to this race? For this we have to analyze their (Caprisca & Selfie Star) two latest races.

(a) Caprisca (Present Rating 58) won Pune R No.21 a Class-IV Handicap Race for 3 year olds, over 1400m, won by 2 lengths against a "maiden" Glyndebourne Note Caprisca's rating before race 44 which gone upto 58 (7 Kg up) and Glyndebourne's Rating gone up to 46 without winning.

NOW COMPARE CAPRISCA WITH SELFIE STAR:
(b) Selfie Star (Present Rating 59) won Pune R No.13 a Class-IV Handicap for race for 3 year olds in Class-IV, over 1600m, won by 3-3/4 lengths against a "maiden" Turning Point. Selfie Star's rating was 44 before the race and gone upto 59 (7.5 Kgs) and maiden Turning point's rating also gone up to 46 like Glyndebourne. On Speedrating or Weight Handicapping Selfie Star is better than Caprisca by 2-1/2 lengths today. So forget Caprisca beating Selfie Star.

TODAY THEY ARE RUNNING IN GRADE-3 TERMS RACE. Here you can avoid BATELEUR from contention because he just won a maiden race by 3/4 lengths. Ignore ADMO's win yesterday.

For a clear picture you have to go back Mumbai Races in which Caprisca, Pure Zinc, Selfie Star and Summer Rays ran in COLTS & FILLIES races, R.Nos. 232 and 230 respectively on same day. Basis that run PURE ZINC is the best horse today. Only problem he is running after 6 months. Nevertheless he had a mock race on 2nd Sept where he beaten IRISES by Distance. IRISES earlier beaten STAR COMRADE (SC won yesterday). IRISES finished 2nd to Celestial Light on March 19 (Same day of Fillies and Colts races) R.No.231 in Class-IV and clocked a very inferior timings than the runners - Pure Zinc, Caprisca, Selfie Star and Summer Rays (Note it had an interference). So dont read too much about PURE ZINC's mock race against much inferior IRISES. Yes you can consider PURE ZINC has returned to form and fitness.

At last, you have this SUMMER RAYS (Present rating 54), last two races were particularly with superior class animals. In R.No.76 (a suspect riding by Trevor) lost to Rochester (Rating 54) by 1-3/4 lengths, now Summer Rays and Rochester both are on same ratings 54. Sweet Music won on photo from Rochester on equal terms, Selfie Star beaten Sweet Music by over 2 lengths that means SELFIE STAR is better than ROCHESTER. NOW the most important Race is 13 and 14 this season. R.No.13 Selfie Star beaten Sweet Music by 2-1/4 lengths. Same Day in R.No.14 SUMMER RAYS beaten GOLDIE'S PET by 1-1/2 lengths in a 3 year old PENALTY CLASS. Goldie's Pet last week one a Class-III race now rated 59. So the best horse in this set is SUMMER RAYS.

FINAL CHOICE:
4-SUMMER RAYS-WIN

SELFIE STAR & PURE ZINC will fight for Runner-Up berth.

Selfie Star is a much improved horse.Do not compare its run with previous runs of Caprisca and Pure zinc.
They have remained where they were and where as ST has improved by leaps and bounds. Go and hug Selfie Star.

''THE VILLOO C.POONAWALLA MILLION
*************************************
17/09/2017--PUNE
--------------------------
5th RACE NO.2 ''GALLANT KNIGHT''
IN ''THE VILLOO C.POONAWALLA MILLION''
SHOULD WIN IN GREAT STYLE .
IT RAN CLOSE 4th TO ROCHESTER IN
RACE NO.76(PUNE), AND LATEST TRACK
WORK ATTRACTIVE ENOUGH TO CLEAR
MAIDEN STATUS IN THIS POOR SET.

5th RACE NO.(2)- 'GALLANT KNIGHT'
IS MY DAYS BEST BET.

REGARDS FROM,
S.GOVINDARAJAN(chennai)

Selfie Star should win followed by Summer Rays

@ DEAR RAHUL71

CAPRISCA IS THE CLEAR WINNER FOR ME.

FIRST REASON IS IT IS BEATEN SELFIE STAR AND FINISHED WITH BETTER TIMINGS THAN SELFIE STAR WHEN THEY RAN SAME DAY ON 19TH MARCH IN MUM.

SECOND REASON IS PURE ZINC BEATEN WITH SHORTEST MARGIN WHEN THEY MET. BUT CAPRISCA HAD RUN BENEFIT.

SO MY VOTE GOES TO CAPRISCA.

PURE ZINC has beaten CAPRISCA same dist, but first run in pune so i doubt

CAPRISCA has beaten SELFIE STAR twice

SELFIE STAR has won its last two races easily, inside info says SELFIE will win, will decide at race time its betwee CAPRISCA n SELFIE STAR.