@Sun
Txs for all inputs.
My thumb rule is a horse on promotion has only 40% chance to win. A double promotion is usually never played( let it win).
I really don't care much about wts raised by 3 kg. For a horse of 400+ kg 3 kg makes no difference if it has class.
Anything above 3 kg I deduct it's chances by 10 to 40% depending on wt raised.
Also jockey on a wt raised horse makes all the difference in my final selections.
Srinath,Trevor,Suraj ,Neeraj will get additional points. Apprentice jockies without whip are discarded on top wts.Yash is not even glanced.
I also give lot of importance to track. I do watch it's track through out season. ( Rarely trust the track of some non performers with out wins at sometime.)
Like these there are hundreds of things come to mind before zeroing on a winner.
Maidens are deducted a % .
Sometimes papers and tipsters also influence final selections.
(I cursed a leading tipster here sooo much once for influencing me ( blame myself).
Once I had played 10 peti on Majestic without knowing the odds and . When I saw later Brooker Jones was 65/100 and my horse Majestic was 5/1 ,I panicked as all papers had predicicted BJ as days best. I called and cancelled my bet. Majestic won by LNk.!!!!!!!!
So luck also plays very impt role. No matter what calculations we make.
Good luck. Let's help each other to over come odds loaded heavily against punters in this dirty sports.

@ Chanakya Ji,

Was it a compliment or a caution not to Analyse Races based on Timings.Anyway I take it as a compliment.
Yourself,SK Sagar Saab,Glasgow Prince not seen on the forum now a days and many others have done extensive research to analyse and predict winners.So also I am trying.
Being from Airforce you do appreciate the challenge and thrill one gets in analysing from scant or not so consistent data but still be able to predict result within acceptable limits.It was with this spirit the Operations Research field was nurtured and developed during 2nd world war time.
My opinion is that the errors in measurements may be there but it applies to all races at the centre and we are interested in relative differences rather than absolute values and this is the basis of my calculations.Hope you will agree with me.
Thanks.

@dseetharamarao,
Did you mean Official Ratings.No it does not take into account Ratings.The calcultions are purely Weight Based ie Weight Carried by the horse.Changes in Ratings get reflected through change in Handicaps.

@ SUN,

You are a intelligent man-(my opinion). I appreciate your opinion and only one other person called VKSK, because both of you take time and make effort to analyse, prove, explain and try to clear the ambiguity associated with a point. MANY HERE ARE FAKES- I do not accept their existence...


I will give an input...


Indian race tracks were operated, controlled and run by Britishers before INDEPENDENCE.Distances measured from rail or outer edge of grass track will not be same - even a monkey knows that! But we don't know this TRUTH!...

We are a lazy lot, that is why we were enslaved for 700 years- longer than any other country or group of people. We accepted whatever data was given to us...

Some intelligent and sincere but skeptical Indians got togather and tried to measure the actual distances between the distance markers at 1100, 1200 etc.
and found a major discrepency...

The mistakes, wrong data and correlated aberrations- to take it lightly, were never accepted...

AND THE SHOW WENT ON...

DEAR SUN,

ARE YOU FEELING HANDICAPPER'S POINTS RELATING TO TIME. PLEASE CLARIFY AND

EXPLAIN IN DETAIL.

@ Raj,
Adjusting Timings of Centres is tricky and may not work consistently.If you take a constant 2 secs obviously it is wrong.For 1000 mtrs let us say Mysore Timing is 1 min OR 6000 and you add 2 secs which is 200.Now my question is how can you add same 2 secs for 1200Mtrs also where the Mysore Time is say 7200.First 200 out of 6000 is 1/30 of the time while 200/7200 is 1/36 so on and so forth.
My adjustment is like this 0.06 secs is for 1000 mtrs which I missed out by oversight.So compared to Mumbai we add 9 Rating Points ie 0.06 multiplied by 9 OR 0.54 Secs which you may question but it is only an empirical factor.For 1200 7.5 Units of Time ie 0.075 multiplied by 9 For each distance 9 is constant for mysore but 0.06 changes as per values given by me in the other post.
May I know how you are adjusting for Class Change and Weights Raised/Lowered in you system?
Thanks.

There is no correct measurements in Mysore I think wrong timings sure it is not record time

@Sun
Txs. I do take in to account most of the points you have listed .Except ratings of different centers, How did you arrive this ?
Mysore 9 RTPS TO BE ADDED? will you pl explain this ? and also 1 RP =0.06 secs ???????? added or to be deducted? I would straight away add 2 secs to all winning horses at Mysore when compared to Pune and Mumbai when PTR is normal.
can you take an example of any one horse and explain both?
Regards
RAJ

@ raj
Why don’t u ask Dynamic Handicappers. They are expert in this matter.
@sun
You post any center true timing yourself Not only you, the masters of Dynamic Handicappers come and post your figure. I challenge you. U beat me. Calculate what true timing I post and see the difference yourself Let’s start from Mumbai and Bangalore season

MOMIN

@Raj,
There are many systems and Timing Analysis is one.Before you analyse based on Timings you must have considered the following
1.First and foremost Penetrometer Reading.
2.False Rails which you can put off for sometime as Race Clubs claim that Distances are measured to position the Starting Gates when False Rails are up.
3.Taking care of the Distance Change.Today's race has runners which have run in various distances ie today race is 1200 Mtrs but you have Horse 1 previous race 1000 Mtrs Horse 2 1100 Mtrs.Now those Timings you should map to 1200 Mtrs
4.Similarly today's race may have runners running in the same class,Demotees from higher class and Promotees from lower class so your method should take care of Timing Adjustmnet.
5.Weights Raised and Lowered data.
6.Last and most important which you observed Timing at Various Centres.
If you have a method addressing all these aspects Timing Analysis is as good as Handicapping.
Now regarding your observation you are absolutely correct when you say that Mysore Timings are unbelievable.Based on my study of Ratings and the Official Handicapper's treatment for adoption of other centres horses in Handicap Races at their centre I give a thumb rule for corrections
Mumbai taken as reference
Pune/Bangalore No correction
Hyderanad 3 Rating Points
Kolkata 6 RPs
Mysore 9 RPS To be added.
Here 1 RP is 0.06 Secs or 6 Units of Time in 1/100 scale
1100 7 Units 1200 7.5 1400 8 1600 10 1800 11 2000 12
2200 13 2400 15 Beyond this very few races.
I am experimenting with Timing Analysis and I will give 2/3 top contenders for the races I analyse and you can see in the Selections Posts
Thanks.

DEAR SVKRAJU,

WHAT YOU SAID IS CORRECT. ONE THING IS TO CONCENTRATE THE HANDICAPPER'S VIEWS.

Ravikumar,
very well explained.In particular,I agree with our observation that a race horse matures at the age of 5 .

Dear Raj,

Every track in the country is different from the other in terms of its layout, the length of the straight, the incline of the track,the compression of the soil and even the kind of grass which is laid. Also the placing of the false rails also influences the race timings. Timings of a horse from different race tracks are normalised using different means by experienced handicappers. If you were to take the base timing of a horse in one centre and apply it to the horse in another centre would be grossly incorrect withour adjusting for the factors mentioned earlier. So, for you to cast aspersions about the Mysore Race Course is unfounded.

Also, in contrast to the public perception, age of a race horse doesn't limit its speed or endurance. A race horse matures at the age of 5 years and then on it performs at its peak till the age of about 8 or 9 depending on how well they are looked after. The retirement age in most of the centres is 8 years. There have been horses who have been preforming creditably till their retirement. One of the best sprinters in India today is Dancing Prances, a seven year old. In fact there is a growing sentiment in the world that racehorses should start training only at the age of four years because, the skeletal system of a horse keeps growing till the age of four and there is greater risk of young horses getting injured and permanently disabled if they start training earlier.


Cheers,

Ravi

One should be well versed with PNR. As for today’s raciing , the ground was
4 sec. fast. Plus there are certain more factors that I cannot share.
Experience will give you more accuracy, if one follows certain rules.

@ Dear RAJ

My friendly advice is never follow or calculate or consider timings of any horse at any centre to select a winning horse. I lost all my money when calculating timings to find the winner.you may get success, but it will be less than 20%.

What i learned after 37 years of experiance is finding the valuable horse to wager with three major factors. the three major factors are CLASS, PREPARATION WITH SUITABILITY OF DISTANCE AND THE INTENTIONS OF THE CONNECTIONS.

Try to calculate and understand, then you strike will surely improve upto 60 to 70%.Take this as a positive friendly advice.


ALL THE BEST

Nice observation. Timings are too good to believe...

PUNE TRACK IS WORST COMPARED TO MYSORE TRACK