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By Mad Max | 05-Nov-2017Race No.4> The Own Opinion Plate
Class-III (1600 mtrs) 2.45 PM.
As decided earlier, the Highest Class race of the day is R.No.4. Normally it is difficult to decipher Class-1 & II races included in Jackpot Legs. This Column has been started with good intention, but sometime my selection get boomeranged, no one can predict winners every time. Only solace is you all are here to help and correct me.
Hope Class III races are not that tough. I will post my final analysis tomorrow morning before 10.00 AM. Your valuable views and comments shall be appreciated in its true perspective and hence request to participate in this discussion.
It is further requested even if you dont like this race, just try to post your Casual Choice, this is needed to ensure full participation. Dont forget if you have any other Day's Best horse for the day, specify the name and help others.
Thank you !
63 Replies
Shaps said ...
09-Nov-2017
Friends, pl. understand that cup and class 1 races are mostly targetted by the connections and the bookies. Earlier also asked M M to select an ordinary race , cause, these races are run more on merit than the cup / class 1 races.
Now, I find many asking for the same.
In today's racing, manipulated races have taken over from merit racing. All club authorities wear blindfolds and have racing induced cataracts, hence they are unable to see right from wrong. Hence, each and everyone should be double careful while betting.
Crk said ...
09-Nov-2017Max, Sun,
Thanks for your replies.I have found your exchanges and posts very enlightening ,hence my suggestions for having a similar debate on Cl2 and Cl2 races, where I felt that merit , preceding races and intent of the connections may be relatively easier compared to Cl 1 or the feature race of the day. Just as winner finding is an art or science,selecting the right race to wager is as important and therefore devote this detailed study and debate that you have done.I am mentioning something that I am sure you know and have no intention of sounding off.
Max, your efforts are commendable and Sun and few others are contributing their valued inputs,making the study nd evaluation of the race easier for others. I am surprised at the arm chair critics who are unable to appreciate that. They should realize that after reading the posts,it is their call to wager or not to wager.I think any criticism that is hurtful is best ignored a nd not dignified with a reply.
Yes, I am new here, but an old hand in racing.(Two decades).Learnt the hard way to wager sensibly,and your thread is now an additional aspect that I factor in my own evaluation for whatever it is worth.( My evaluation )
Sun, handicapping is my weak point and hence really not qualified for starting a thread on Cl1 or Cl2.However,some inputs of pedigree, home distance,quality of preceding runs,track preparations,etc I may be able to give .How worthwhile it will be is something I dare not venture to comment.
Regards.
Sun said ...
09-Nov-2017Sir,
Kindly go through many posts including your own.Was there any reply to any post on suggestions made including mine.Mad Max has done some loud thinking on how to chose a race for the day to reflect the competetivetly run race on a day.
May be you can start a thread for Class 2 OR Class 3 race.
Thanks.
Mad Max said ...
09-Nov-2017From your writings nobody can say you are new in this sport. Sorry for this late reply.
Yes the courtesy have to maintain in a discussion forum and replies to the queries have to be essentially given especially when the queries are addressed to someone. But here the seniors keep silent, it is because of their egos, they scantly come out and give reply to their Juniors' questions. For example you can see my request to seniors to give their opinions about Delhi race where "objection upheld". They are a "bunch of old friends" 'activate their battery" only on a reciprocal basis "You pat my back, I will pat yours". No problem if they dont want impart their knowledge to their juniors.
But I dont know what to say about your two comments under this thread, because question and answers both you have written there. So I can say whatever said is correct.
There is no 100% success formula in horse racing. If you have one, it will give you winners say maximum 6-7-8 times. Best of best tipsters cash their success few times but when they share same formulae in a discussion forum like this, it fails, may be because of 'law of averages'. And you have to go thru all the abuses/harassment from readers. Punters have no patience they need instant results. Sticking to successful formulas will give you maximum results in favour.
Now coming back to these critics, they are the WORST TIPSTERS in the world. They are called sore punters. Their job is only punting. If their horse wins they will eat well, drink well, sleep well. If not, they wont allow you to eat well, drink well, sleep well.
Crk said ...
08-Nov-2017I am relatively new in this forum.Have given a few suggestions.Does it mean that it does not merit a courtesy of a reply ?Thanks.
Manish said ...
08-Nov-2017You have sound racing knowledge and good writing skills as well as stamina.
But the problem is that you are also like other mortal punters who always gives the wrong choice but come out winner at the end of the day, playing the right horse.
I dont doubt your claim, but everybody here knows that post white cone claims hold no water.
In addition, you should also show some grace if your choice fails. In horse racing, failure occurs more than not. thats why a value bet is always advisable.
Looking for your selections. Dont be bound in your own chains and desist giving post race analysis of your winning. It gives a bad taste because everyone here knows the reality.
Sun said ...
08-Nov-2017I am OK with either of the Plans Highest Class OR 2 races of one's choice.My suggestion is we take one of the cup races with higher stake money and if only one Cup race we take that and one more race say Highest Class with no Divisions that way Own Opinion Plate was correct as other race was a split race.A Terms race sometimes does not present a challenge because Terms may by too much in favour of a horse.So my order will be
2 Races
Terms Race OR Classic like 1000Gs wtc
Highest Class OR Cup race.
Let tipsters give only one horse per race.
Thanks.
Crk said ...
08-Nov-2017When a jodi bet is beyond expectation, like in this case,leave it alone as 9/10, your bet will fail. Note that bookies know more than us,as they are fully aware of the money flow of the right sources . Contrary to our thinking and their profession,they are here for the long haul,and they do not take foolish risks as we, the punters do.
The 2nd and third generation bookies are operating sucessfully. Do you see 2nd generation punters ? Something to think about ?
Thanks.
Stop Fooling Punter said ...
08-Nov-2017It happens to all of us only he is not willing to accept it.
Sad will sink in further
Crk said ...
08-Nov-2017You all are doing a great job of studying the race as it should be. Moreover,your technical inputs gives everyone a clearer understanding of the race,which earlier may not have been possible either for lack of time or the skill .
It is my view that Cl.3 and Cl.2 races could also be chosen for a detailed study,as the contenders ,say in Cl 3/Cl.2 are either on the rise/ fall in the class.Alongwith the preceding runs the capability of the horse and the intent of the connections may be deciphered to some extent (All other factors being the same.).
As for the critics,well, they may consider a little moderation , which is not asking for much (?).
Regards.
Pradeep said ...
07-Nov-2017Don't get worked up/upset with any criticism/comments by anyone. You achieved fame & following here & it brings along few who will wait for an opportunity to pull you down.Stay calm, cool & composed. Also bit friendly advice- Don't get headstrong on your own choices s at race time there will be many factors which can help you change your choice. It happens with me many times & people ask- earlier you had said another horse is good. But then there is no answer to such questions.
You select any race from any center as i believe that money from Win,Place or SHP or any other pool/bet ,if successful gives you the same currency notes by Govt.Of India.
Lastly just don't get upset but as you strive on writing good & correct English, please note the past tense of SPLIT is SPLIT only & not splitted(as you have spelt/spelled it).
Professor said ...
07-Nov-2017Once a race is over any amount of justification will make no wonders.
Its like an arrow shot out of a bow
Get my point?
Sportyy said ...
07-Nov-2017More the inputs merrier it will be always , which ever race anyone feels he has a theory /analysis to share should be most welcome as that gives others more OPTIONS to consider while wagering... it also helps in narrowing down on their choices
Be in one race analysis or multiple - i am OK with either..
Cheers
Sportyy
Mad Max said ...
07-Nov-2017
@ Rrajesh
About: Mahateji
I never said PLAY MAHATEJI... Go to my original posts and read again.
----------------
What I said about Mahateji in my post is reproduced below:
TODAY MY FINAL CHOICE:
MAHATEJI-WIN
After seeing the results of the first day races, I have a serious doubt, from this season HRC might have changed the interpretation of Penetrometer Readings. Hence need time to review these things, till then not making further comments.
----------------
About SANA:
Some comments here making further claim that I asked punters to play SANA. In fact I said present company is not tough, it can win. BUT... ! I said SANA will run as ON-MONEY FAVOURITE... so we will have to find a VALUE BET in PLACE. And I tipped same trainer's - CAPTAIN COOK as a GOOD PLACE BET with some reasons. No doubt my first choice was SANA for win, but my SUGGESTED BET FOR THE PUNTERS was CAPTAIN COOK PLACE. If you have any doubt, please go and read the original post. horsetalk.indiarace.com/HTalkPostReply.aspx?msgid=1051403. I posted my selections at 9.34 AM.
After appearing my Selections at 9.34 AM, Mr. CNGOWDA tipped only one horse CAPTAIN COOK at 11.30 AM. Whereas Ms.Golden Girl aired her opinion much later at 12.28 pm supported SANA for win if not cheating, otherwise Captain Cook upset. She also suggested a PLACE BET on CAPTAIN COOK.
No one acknowledged Mr. CNGOWDA's fantastic choice or my SUGGESTED PLACE BET on CAPTAIN COOK. I hereby convey my belated Congratulations to Mr CN Gowda and Golden Girl to both for your good selections on that day.
@ Sun
@ Raj
Rahuls Pet:
I went to Mysore on Sunday to play this horse. It was nice to see return of some bookies. Due to this, there was the rush on tote counters were less. Even totes paid good dividends because of this. I waited till the 7th race and lost a sum on Rahuls Pet.
@ Bangalore Hunters
Shathabdi Express starts at 11 Am from Bangalore from Platform No.5 and reaches Mysore at 1 PM (within 2 hours from Bangalore). You get Free Meals and 1 Liter Aerated Water Bottle during 2 hours journey. By the time I reached Race Course the first race was over where Marina Del Rey won in the Class-III race.
@ Sun
Winners picking from Division-1 & Division 2 races:
Incidentally while going thru the 3rd race I noticed New Port running in Class-IV Division 1. This horse was once finished ahead of Marina Del Rey (R.207) later won the first race in Class-III. So I firmly backed New Port is running in inferior class should make this opportunity to win, which was available at 7/1 and obliged. This is race time pick using instant brain.
When a race is splitted into two divisions and one result is available, it is easy to pick the winner from other division. Here I had New Port which won in the Adolfito Plate Div-1, so I searched for the Division-2 race to find out any horse in that race finished ahead of NEW PORT or near abouts? Unfortunately there was no race named Adolfito Plate Divi-2 on that day. But I could trace this Div-2 race on next day, Monday (6th race). I found a better horse in ROYAL GREEN which finished 4 lengths behind HEATHROW in R.96. Yes Heathrow went on to win R.207 later and beaten NEW PORT by 4 lengths and Marina Del Rey was further 3/4 lengths behind. That means ROYAL GREEN was a horse a better horse running in Div-2 than NEW PORT which won Div-1, and Marina Del Rey which won pure Class-III race. Actually my ONE BET Should have been this race, however I picked higher class race of that day The Own Opinion Plate and selected a wrong horse. This is all luck. On Sunday also I had a solid bet on Carnival Dancer that was my Day's best on Timings, but I could not select that race or horse also due to self imposed condition of picking Highest Class race of the day.
So my revised opinion is - should we discard the "HIGHEST CLASS RACE OF THE DAY" and pick "ONE BET FROM ANY RACE" from next race day, i.e. 11th day Kolkata..? or BOTH should be retained?
Your opinion please all participants !
Sportyy said ...
07-Nov-2017Saw your message late ....
Thks my friend for the encouragement ,even in your write up you had preferred Destined Dynamite but for the jockey ...
In my calculations strong horses mostly carry jockey's & not the other way around so i was confident on it and the race just fell in place as per my expectations ..
Cheers
Sportyy
Rrajesh said ...
07-Nov-2017dharmeshsirs days best was zelus which i was doubtful because of the distance
so i asked the bookie the jodi rate....i thought it would be 40-50p and i was surprised when he said 80p .... it was a very luring proposition ..
i thought to myself something is wrong.... but i got lures and played a good bet jodi
and i lost.....this is racing
but i will still keep following dharmesh bkdsir and MM and ofcourse GG TIPS
Alen D said ...
07-Nov-2017Well said, some people forget that selection of the horse is done by a true lover of horse race who takes as a sport not done by bookies, trainer etc this people are pure gambler who takes shit after a race,,,, so best to ignore them
Regards
Alen
Sportyy said ...
06-Nov-2017Thks buddy - Played good amt Destined Dynamite 75%-25% [place-win]
@ Raj & others
Guys this forum is to contribute where people are taking their time out & writing about this sport ..so after the races dont try to show them down
Keep this forum clean & healthy as nobody will be perfect in their predictions
The most important point here is we can take the positives in discussion and have a better mind frame before wagering our bets
This is so much better than the KHABARS from jocks /trainers who are mostly there to misguide you.
Also the contribution comes when you explain your choice not just saying today i LIKE this horse ...reasoning is important
Thats why the thread of a particular race is opened ...so if you cant contribute -at least dont CRITICIZE..
Cheers
Sportyy
Pradeep said ...
06-Nov-2017Good choice & a perfect( Ten On Ten) order at the finish.Just amazing & worth praise.
Also worth praise that you could keep faith in Ashad Asbar, where I failed.
Svkraju said ...
06-Nov-2017Please be in what you want to do in racing. Learn the basics and find one EVEN money which can give or fetch money everyday to other fellow punters or at least for yourself. Not easy at present to any tipster or punter. Best tipsters are struggling here to find a valuable choice.
NO hadicapping, no speed rating, and no inside info [ kabar ] is worthwhile. if some one fails continuosly for three or four bets you people go for ga ga. Is it good or make you happy. Is it unwanted interest.
I hope you got it what i mean. Yes i am not related or concerned.But myself always concerned about you due to your arrogance with assumption. Only an advice and also a caution with vast experiance in loosing money with assumption.
Let me give one example to you and others who is going GA GA about others tips without any knowledge. I played one single bet on ASLAM after selling 5acres. Now that worth about 15 cr. Can you believe.
At presnt my max. bet will be not more than 1k. some times it may be just 100 . So by playing big or small is not the matter here.
Respect others or try to challenge with your valuable choices. CONCENTRATE ON your own bets and justify or prove your self your own choices by posting.
This is a common statement to all others who comment or criticise others.
All the best to all the challengers.
Raj said ...
06-Nov-2017No wonder others are no match in front of him.
Don said ...
06-Nov-2017regards
Don
Svkraju said ...
06-Nov-2017WOW. GREAT ANALYSIS. Well done. keep posting your thoughys in HT regularly.
All the best
Mad Max said ...
06-Nov-2017Winners following ranking based on "First Tipped First"
1. KRISNA on 5/11/17 at 11.46 pm
-------------------
2. Sporty on 6/11/17 at 8.15 Am
3. Danell on 6/11/17 at 9.52 Am
4. Almamater on 6/11/17 at 10.56 Am
Total participants 27:
Winners only above 4
Good Luck to all participants on next attempt !
Rrajesh said ...
06-Nov-2017Girish said ...
06-Nov-2017Kumar_blore said ...
06-Nov-2017Neutral View said ...
06-Nov-2017Ajay said ...
06-Nov-2017Reacher said ...
06-Nov-2017Bkd said ...
06-Nov-2017The latter's run in the Derby cannot be taken as an indicator of its prowess. Just an aspiration. Has been a winner in the maiden class only..difficult to put it across Mahateji, who has also run a decent 3rd to Lady in Lace in the Fillies Trial.
Sun said ...
06-Nov-2017Sorry.I saw your post just now but KK Lanka has already clarified your doubt and you also acknowledged.
HRC changed to 26 to 46 42 to 62 etc from Monsoon Season.As I see there is no Ratings drop for this season.The lowest Class is 1-30 most of the time it is Weights Lowered by 2.5KG if one were to follow RWITC method of noting Weight Lowered OR Raised.HRC does not follow this method but I do make note.Today RNO 4 is Weight Raised by 1.5KG racein the normal nomenclature which is important factor if we go for Timing Analysis.
Abhay...pune said ...
06-Nov-2017GOOD R NO-4-H NO-3-MAHATEJI,R NO-6-H NO-4-HEAVEN CAN WAIT
Ganesh said ...
06-Nov-2017Anand said ...
06-Nov-2017Rrajesh said ...
06-Nov-2017zelus was 4th in derby in a heavy going....the previous run of zelus ridden by srinath was whipped a lot to just about win....
so i feel mahateji should be a good bet and will win
a few are saying it wont place too...i feel place is certainty if 7 or 8 horses running
Transparency said ...
06-Nov-2017Reason :lost yo to my tipped Prevalent force .Was leading till bend .
Chanakya said ...
06-Nov-2017Kalpesh said ...
06-Nov-2017Mad Max I guess you will refund Niraj Rawal's air fare for whichhe has come all the way for one mount if it looses.
Sun said ...
06-Nov-2017Thanks.
Sam said ...
06-Nov-2017Pradeep said ...
06-Nov-20175 of the 8 runners are using this race to test their chances in upcoming classics- for colts & fillies.
Three of them come into reckoning- Eternal Angel( Half sister to Captain Cook), Mahateji & Destined Dynamite. Zelus although getting few Kgs.from these three is yet to come to this league.
In my final working the race boils down to Mahateji & DESTINED DYNAMITE with EA making the frame for sure. DD has a suspect rider & hence it's between EA & Mahateji- A very close call( Looking to race no.38 of Hyd.Monsoon).
A bit better rider forces me to go for Eternal Angel as winner.
All The Best to All for the day!!!
Vampsvenom said ...
06-Nov-2017ETERNAL ANGEL
Stop Fooling Punter said ...
06-Nov-2017Zelus is the one to win here at low wts. compared to others
Shaps said ...
06-Nov-2017Mahetji will not even be in place. Note.
Almamater said ...
06-Nov-2017Don said ...
06-Nov-2017overated and boasting show off tipster and lay Mahateji and win again
Regard
Don
Svkraju said ...
06-Nov-2017My choice is ZELUS should get it from MAHATEJI. My other good bets are [kaichi place roll] KISS N CHASE, MISS LILY, AEROFOIL, and PRINCESS BELLARINA.
All the best
Honneru said ...
06-Nov-2017R 5 H 6 Hunters Pride {DB}
Kk Lanka said ...
06-Nov-2017The revised rating of ETERNAL ANGEL after last run is 58.
Same case with MAHATHI.
So, Weights assigned are exactly as per their ratings.
For your reference, here is the link of revised ratings.
hydraces.com/viewracing.php?sid=NDAy&id=revratings
KK Lanka
Daniell said ...
06-Nov-2017my pick for the race no. 4 is Destined Dynamite
BEST OF LUCK
Regards
DANIELL.
Mad Max said ...
06-Nov-2017I rechecked with Indiarace Race Card... the weight of horses are according to the weights only. BOL Race book which I follow, is making so many mistakes and confusing racegoers. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Senthilnathan said ...
06-Nov-2017www.hydraces.com/hrc-racecard-new.php?rdt=MjAxNy0xMS0wNg==
Nilban said ...
06-Nov-2017Mad Max said ...
06-Nov-2017of Spot Winner with Success
HRC has further revised the Ratings of Horses for each class. The "Ready Reckoner Of Weights As Related To Continuous Rating" published in "Guest Writer" column is outdated. Even HRC has not published the Rating Table, hence humbly request to update it and oblige.
@ Sun,
Have you noticed HRC has revised the ratings for each class, now Class-III means horses rated between 42 and 62 points. I think they changed the ratings for the third or fourth time.
Please note R.4 is a handicap race. So in handicap races the weights assigned to horses as per the rating table. But in this race, Official Handicapper has given WEIGHTS not as per horse's ratings, have you noticed it?. For example BIG HEART's rating is 59, weights assigned is 60 Kg. So weight of Eternal Angel rated 57 kg should have been 59 Kg, but given today 59.5 Kg, why? Weights of Mahateji is ok 59.5 Kg. Mahathi's rating 56, its weight should have been 58.5 kg, in reality carrying 05. kg etc. Surprisingly Destined Dynamite rated 56 carrying correct weight of 58.5 kg., Al Sadr, Juneau and Zelus Weights related to Ratings are matching. Have you any idea why Eternal Angel and Mahathi carrying 0.5 kg extra?
@ Hi All
TODAY MY FINAL CHOICE:
MAHATEJI-WIN
After seeing the results of the first day races, I have a serious doubt, from this season HRC might have changed the interpretation of Penetrometer Readings. Hence need time to review these things, till then not making further comments.
God Is Great said ...
06-Nov-2017Regards
God is great
Sportyy said ...
06-Nov-2017IN the 4th race [The Own Opinion plate ]
I have discounted
Horse no 1/2/4/6-7
Big heart has reached its highest class & will take few runs to win its next race
Eternal Angel is a sprinter [Never gone a mile ]
Mahati not at this handicap
Al Sadr -trainer shud be jobber with DD
Juneau - Also ran - discounted
Horse no 3 ran a indifferent race being a hot fav -chances are was not tried and ran to lose shud be in the busy end
Horse no 8 - also shud be @ the busy end
For me the eyecatching run was of number 3 Destined dynamite who was running detached second last -last till the bend and came 4th impressively with the rider going 10-15 wide and still managing to finish 0.28 secs from the winner[Big Heart] Finshing ON
Maybe the connections wanted to see & be very sure of their horse coming from way back of the field
In short going 12-14- wide horse as good as ran 1500 plus metres
RACE NO 45 ALSO ran in the same style 1200m and pipped Shandaar @ the post
SHUD definately run in top 1/2/3 if not the winner...
Back on track
1600 m shud suit its style of running and if the horse does not go wide shud have it easy ...As in his past few runs has been coming with force from back
Technically - Race shud be confined to...... in order of preference ..
1] Destined Dynamite
2] Zelus
3] Mahateji
Same race Others in odds like Big Heart / Eternal Angel i will Lay happily..
Other than this -i prefer Pure power in the 2nd race & will be looking for good odds on place to play it each way ..90% place /10% win
Cheers
Sportyy
Ashwaffinity said ...
06-Nov-2017Dharmesh said ...
05-Nov-2017Ignoring 4 year olds.
BIG HEART seems out handicapped in this set.
MAHETEJI is better placed on scales against both BIG HEART & ETERNAL ANGEL.
DESTINED DYNAMITE & JUNEAU both lacks class.
ZELUS ran a forward race and finished faraway 4tg in mansoon derby run in difficult conditions. Now makes his handicap debut in class 3 and seems to be a classic contender from Laxman’s yard. With Neeraj Rawal in saddle and receiving weights from all his rivals, the only 3yo Colt can prove hard nut to crack. My days best.
Regards
Krisna said ...
05-Nov-2017............DESTINED DYNAMITE.............
Destined to win
Arpee said ...
05-Nov-2017Good initiative, Sir.
BIG HEART is my clear choice. Other choices are HEAVEN CAN WAIT and ACT IN TIME.
Thanks.
Chancepedance said ...
05-Nov-2017Starlight is a certain place if odds permit.
Cngowda said ...
05-Nov-2017Disclaimer
The views expressed in Reviews and Analyses depict the personal perspective of the authors only. Indiarace does not subscribe to or endorse any of the same and is not responsible for adverse consequences (if any). Every effort is made to provide accurate information, we are not responsible for any discrepancies that are beyond our control.
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