***Trainer VIJAY SINGH Has 3 Horses in this Race:
1)MULTITUDE(60kg)
2)CADMAN(57kg)
3)COMMANDER(56kg)
**The following Trainers have single entry each:
a)RAUNAK BANERJI- EVESHAM(59kg)
b)JASBIR SINGH-REWALDING(58kg)
c)J E MCKEOWN-SHIVALIK STORM(55.5kg)
Note:
1)MULTITUDE has beaten EVESHAM and SHIVALIK STORM with same weight difference hence exclude both EVESHAM and SHIVALIK STORM.
2)CADMAN has beaten REWALDING With same weight difference and on level weight also.hence REWALDING is also excluded.
**CONCLUSION-1:
This Race is limited to VIJAY SINGH HORSES
1)MULTITUDE(60kg)
2)CADMAN(57kg)
3)COMMANDER(56kg)
**Based on timings both MULTITUDE and COMMANDER are better than CADMAN.hence exclude CADMAN.
**So now its strictly between MULTITUDE and COMMANDER.
**Consider Race124 where both MULTITUDE and COMMANDER carried equal weight(57kg), MULTITUDE moving on the outside finished 1.5L ahead.
**Also consider Race76
COMMANDER(Dr-1,57kg) and
MULTITUDE(Dr-4,62kg),
COMMANDER with 5kg advantage finished 1.25L ahead though it had to move on the inside of SHIVALIK SHOWERS, YOUR ROYAL MAJESTY and MULTITUDE.
CONCLUSION-2:
POINT-1:
This time COMMANDER again has 4kg advantage.
POINT-2:
COMMANDER is given Dr-3, first time to move on the outside of MULTITUDE(Dr-1).
Hence one to beat here is COMMANDER.
*********************
Day's Best-
H-5 COMMANDER-(WIN)
Next Best-
H-1 MULTITUDE-(SHP)
*********************
Thank you
What are your views?
34 Replies
Krisna said ...
12-Nov-2017
Sure enough Vijay was out on Multitude..So cadman and Commander were rested
It was a Favs day
Krisna said ...
12-Nov-2017
wah Manish wah..Kye bola AAp ne
1st time I agree to your lines on 11/11/2017 7:42:15 PM
Race Lover said ...
11-Nov-2017
Odds(12/1) killed COMMANDER.
Manish said ...
11-Nov-2017
MM
This is a public forum. Anyone can give his opinion. Its called participation, not jumping.
And the question u put to sun, can be answered by looking at the prospectus and understanding the terns of the race.
Racing is not about finding terms, its about finding the right bet.
Again ss lost by sk.
Sun said ...
11-Nov-2017
@Mad Max,
Sorry I saw your post only now.I deleted my Analysis File but Multitude had definite advantage in this race.
As per race no 66 Multitude revised ratings as per my system is 124 and Shivalik Storm 108 so Multitude is 8Kg superior.
RNO 82 Evesham went up to 119 ie 3 RPs 1.5Kg not 3Kg.As per this Rating of Shivalik Storm will be at 107.
For Terms Race Penalties are not similar to Handicap Races.If you account for difference in Weights at which they ran Shivalk Storm ran at a Rating of 107 ie 116-9 which only means that during its journey to the present rating it was over rated.Today Evesham was 1KG better terms assuming that both have reached their saturation.
In a Handicap Race the Ratings and Handicaps are aligned whereas in Terms Race they are as per Terms of race and hence Penalties cannot be viewed going by the revision of Ratings.Handicappers first computes the Rating as if it is a Handicap Race and then applies discretion keeping in mind the Highest Rating he can allocate.
If we view the Terms Race where horses like Multitude participate as a Race with Bottom Rating of 100 then at 60Kg it works out to 120 and on top of it a Penalty of 6 RPs gives 126 which can be taken as the ceiling.If we work out Rating of Multitude in RNO 66 taking 4th horse as reference it is 130 but as it is higher than 126 he moderates taking only 2nd and 3rd horses in view.This comes to 124 and Place horses will get some reprieve.
After todays race my Revised Ratings are 123 OR 126 if Handicapper feels that the 2nd horse is still under rated but it does not seem to be the case.So the Revised Ratings are expected to be
123 114 107 110 110
Hope I have shed some light on your queries.
Ayyarnet said ...
11-Nov-2017
Racelover :
Even though Multitude won the race we like your posting and step by step analysis. Whenever you are wrong we will correct you. So please please do not get disappointed please keep coming with your analysis. Thank you Race lover.
Regards
ayyarnet
Sandy said ...
11-Nov-2017
Check the Last Year Mayfowl Cup.
The same vijay singh has his 3 horses multitude - rtg 118, Evesham - rtg116 and MR GORGEOUS - rtg 110.
Other entires were SHIVALIK STORM - rtg 118 & SATELLITE - rtg 111
----
Result is Least Rated Horse has won the race MR GORGEOUS - rtg 110 - Dashrath singh..
Fav being
MULTITUDE & SHIVALIK STORM.
considering this i feel this race should go for SHIVALIK STORM rated 106 currently.
Note: Last year both horses MULTITUDE & SHIVALIK STORM are having same rating of 118. SHIVALIK STORM has beaten good horses like YOUR ROYAL MAJESTY, ADAM, Be safe etc.
Now See the Rating Difference between the 2 horses.
Mad Max said ...
11-Nov-2017
One horse I wanted to lay today is RUFUS (75/100). Unfortunately I cannot make it to My RC. What is common about Bharat Singh's Rufus and Sana is both are Kissing Spine cases. Secondly, In the Derby RUFUS was 4 seconds away from the finish. Lastly, I suspect it may suffer to carry with the top weight. Same day Millenium Glory carried 60 kg and won a 1200 m race in Class-IV. She can upset.
Mad Max said ...
11-Nov-2017
@ Manish
You said... "If these horses run in a handicap race, SS is better placed. It clearly shows that he is worst placed in this race"
What I said in my earlier query to Sun..."if Multitude is 60, SS should carry 51.5 kg. But hat is not visible in their assigned weights here because it is terms race. Here their difference is only 4.5 Kg, that means Shivalik Storm has been penalised by 4 kgs as per terms of this race" ...If Evesham is 59 kg, Shivalik Storm should be 52.5 kg. But SS carries 3 Kg extra today as per the present terms"
WHAT I SAID before has been thrown on my face in two lines. Anything new there in your comments? I addressed my query to SUN only. I expected him to analyse these two horses as per those runs and according to his rating system..? So dont jump into any hasty conclusion. "My query is despite after winning those terms races (R.66 and R.82) Multitude and Evesham are again better placed than Shivalik Storm in scales in this terms race" Why?
Golden Girl said ...
11-Nov-2017
@Mad Max,
It seems Vijay Singh has made it sure that he can lift the cup with either of the two horses i.e.Multitude or Commander.Both of them are capable of beating the other horses.Naturally the one with the longer odds will win.This is my opinion.Not a good race to bet big.
Prashanth said ...
11-Nov-2017
Multitude will win from Evesham.
Manish said ...
11-Nov-2017
@ mm
Why to go after the meaning. U r comparing terms race with handicap race. If these horses run in a handicap race, SS is better placed. It clearly shows that he is worst placed in this race.
Secondly, why to chose a horse which is unlucky for punters. He has been out of place payment twice just by a shd or neck.
Mad Max said ...
11-Nov-2017
@ Sun
Please study in your way and tell me any Kolavari di in this race?
R.66:
Multitude rated 119 (60 kg) won by 1-1/2 lengths from Shivalik Storm rated 105 (53.5 Kg). Revised rating after the race 123 and 111 respectively. Winner got 2 Kg, Shivalik Storm 3 kg. Surprise Surprise, in today's race Multitude carries same 60 Kg and Shivalik Storm goes up by 2 Kg.
R.82.
Eversham Rated 116 (60 kg) won and Shivalik Storm Rated 111 (54.5 Kg) finished 0.06 seconds behind. Revised rating Eversham 3 Kgs up, Shivalik Storm gets reprieve of 1.5 Kg. Today Eversham minus 1 Kg (59 Kg), Shivalik Storm carries 1 Kg more (55.5 Kg).
Overall Scenario !
After Race No.66, suppose Official Handicapper's job is to equal the weights as per the performance. Multitude (123) was better than Shivalik Storm (111) by 6 Kgs (post race 123-111=12/2=6Kg). Today Multitude (123) and Shivalik Storm (106) their rating difference is 17 points / 2 = 8.5 kg. That means Shivalik Storm shed 2.5 Kgs thereafter. And their weights should be separated by 8.5 kgs in an handicap race, ie. if Multitude is 60, SS should carry 51.5 kg. But hat is not visible in their assigned weights here because it is terms race. Here their difference is only 4.5 Kg, that means Shivalik Storm has been penalised by 4 kgs as per terms of this race?. Vis-a-vis Evesham (119) and SS (108) in R.82, their rating difference is only 5.5 kg, but today rating difference is 6.5 kg. If Evesham is 59 kg, Shivalik Storm should be 52.5 kg. But SS carries 3 Kg extra today as per the present terms. What does it mean?
Honneru said ...
11-Nov-2017
Evesham - Shivalik Storm
Rksh said ...
11-Nov-2017
Hii all
C S Jodha is in 3 races before this cup race today...riding on Tough Enough,HalfVolley and one more.....If he manages to win in any one( only win ...not even shp) of these... ..Plz skip off Commander....If he doesn't.....Then Sure shot Commander for win/shp ( play both)...
Plz mind my words
Regards
Stop Fooling Punter said ...
11-Nov-2017
We never seem to learn from History.
Forgotten the Sana episode ! why do we waste time on races where one trainer has many entries and does a doosara. Many races today.I also agree with many regarding Multitude [that is the whole problem ,every ones choice at times bites the dust]
o
Regarding winning of Commander here might as well than start skipping this center.if he wins today
Hartnel has been well prepared and a horse on the upswing. though a tough races can romp home.
Krisna said ...
11-Nov-2017
.............................COMMANDER a cinch
Mad Max said ...
11-Nov-2017
My Choice:
SHIVALIK STORM-WIN/SHP
There is not much difference between these horses, in their day anyone can beat the other. Another interesting point is 3 horses vying for hat-trick, Multitude, Evesham, Cadman. But I prefer SHIVALIK STORM to upset this race because he is advantageously placed now, and knocking at the door for quite some time. Fancying SS for Upset.
Dharmesh said ...
10-Nov-2017
MULTITUDE looks moral in every aspect.
Regards
Sun said ...
10-Nov-2017
@Dear All,
Both from Timing Analysis and Rating analysis it is Multitude.
Best of luck.
Svkraju said ...
10-Nov-2017
Dear friends
Race looks between MULITITUDE and EVESHAM. The former has got better credencials.
Sukesh said ...
10-Nov-2017
Imagine suggesting commander as days best . A pathetic study of the race card. If this is the state of punters , they cant complain after race. This days best Odds will be 15 to 1.
Manish said ...
10-Nov-2017
Just saw that cadman had colic on 18th oct after last run.
Why to take a chance on sick horse, thought I am not aware of gravity of disease.
Leave Cadman. Plus its coming down in distance, which is not a healthy sign.
Kesava said ...
10-Nov-2017
Multitude Will Win
Kesava
Anto said ...
10-Nov-2017
Dear friends,
for me good bet based on handicap advantage & betting perspective. I will take a safe bet of SHIVALIK STORM only for place in a six horse field I will get very good odds.
Thanks,
Anthony
Professor said ...
10-Nov-2017
SHIVALIK STORM ... looks BEST here
Vishalz said ...
10-Nov-2017
Well the fight is between multitude and evesham
Multitude may run at cramp odds
Multitude.1 win
Evesham. 2 Shp
P G said ...
10-Nov-2017
In today's racing, all these statistics do not work, except in some races only.
Going into the connections mind-set only works.
Even saying...... " May the best horse win " is out-dated.
It's may the best wrongful intentions be damned.
Raj said ...
09-Nov-2017
An 8 year old Commander winning this race is like now asking PT Usha to win 100 mts running with Bolt. Pl send this horse to stud . Let it enjoy it's remaining life.And it's also days best??????? Good luck !!.
Multitude will WIN by 3 lenths.Its second to SAA is enough to back it.
Ayyarnet said ...
09-Nov-2017
Racelover :
Appreciate your analysis. But you forgot an important point that Commander is 8 years old with C.S.Jodha while Multitude and Rewalding are much younger horses capable of carrying more weight with good Jockey. In my opinion Commander with C.S.Jodha may not be able to beat Multitude or Rewalding. Final output could be between Multitude and Rewalding. Thanks for your posting we like your analysis
Regards
ayyarnet
Zeddzzz. said ...
09-Nov-2017
Dear Race Lover,
Excellent Analysis.
With All All All Due Respect To You n Your Analysis.
I Think Commander Stands No Chance For Even SHP.
Multitude Looks Outstanding. If The Connections Are Not Serious.
Evesham Next Best.
Hope The Best Horse Will Win.
Wishing You All The Very Best.
Thanks n Take Care.
Manish said ...
09-Nov-2017
Cadman will win. Place for sure. Its on upswing
Libero said ...
09-Nov-2017
@ Race Lover
After coming to Kolkata from Western India, Commander won only twice in Kolkata and had beaten Evesham once over 1200mts, but in present distance it is Evesham who had upper hand with Commander, hence I feel Commander can't win today in 1400mts against Evesham, who still have handicap advantage over Commander, I feel the race is between Evesham & Multitude only
Regards & All the best
Santhosh
Mad Max said ...
09-Nov-2017
@ Race Lover
Good ! Keep it coming regularly. It is called STUDY BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS, or you can say COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE. There may be other tipsters in HT who pick winners same way or some other way, but with different input. Let us see who is reaching first The Gold Almighty, thru different religion (handicapping style)?
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