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Belmont Stakes 2018: Early odds and analysis

Undefeated Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Justify will meet a decent-sized group in the 2018 Belmont Stakes on June 9, as he attempts to earn a Triple Crown. Some of his top challengers include Preakness runner-up Bravazo and third-place finisher Tenfold, as well as Derby also-rans Hofburg and Vino Rosso.

Since Affirmed in 1978, only one other horse has managed to sweep all three races: American Pharoah in 2015. Overall, there are 12 American Triple Crown races.

Post positions will be drawn Tuesday. After that, the early forecast calls for partly cloudy skies on Belmont Day, with post time for the feature 6:46 p.m. ET.

Here is a look at the probable Belmont Stakes field with projected morning line odds from Horse Racing Nation:

• Justify, 4/5 (Scat Daddy – Bob Baffert/Mike Smith – 5:5-0-0 - $2,998,000): There are two sides to this coin. On the one hand, this horse has never lost and comes into the Belmont with plenty of positives, chief among them front-running pace and proven connections. On the other hand, his speed figures largely regressed in the Derby and Preakness, as did his winning margins. While bettors are lining up to take their shot against him, Justify is still still tops here. The one to beat until proven otherwise.

• Bravazo, 5-1 (Awesome Again – D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez – 10:3-2-1 - $736,528): The Risen Star (G2) winner put in a sneaky-good Kentucky Derby, running a wide sixth in the slop, and backed that up to place in the Preakness. His Louisiana Derby (G2) flop back in March remains a head-scratcher, as Bravazo failed to put up a fight after enduring a fast pace. Sometimes horses throw in clunkers. But the argument Bravazo only needed “50 more yards” or so to win the Preakness is a bit thin, as horses’ moves are timed for the right moment. Still, he is a contender. In good form and looking to turn the tables.

• Hofburg, 6-1 (Tapit – Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 4-1-1-0 - $227,950): Late Derby closers do not always perform well in the Belmont. Take for example horses such as Ice Box, Golden Soul, Commanding Curve and Lookin at Lee. But that is not definitive proof closers cannot win the Belmont, either. Because of a projected slower Belmont pace, Hofburg could secure a better position early on. Plus, Tapit babies are suddenly a force in the Belmont, winning three out of the last four years. As a half to stakes router Emollient, there is long-distance blood on his bottom side, too. Mott is a familiar trainer, and if Ortiz rides again, that will be a positive. The right pedigree and connections.

• Vino Rosso, 10-1 (Curlin – Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez – 6-3-0-1 - $620,500): Here's another closer from the Derby. He started all the way from 18th before making a mild bid to finish ninth, a little less than two lengths from Hofburg in seventh. He faced a weaker field and benefitted from a fast pace to set up his run in a Wood Memorial (G2) win. The Belmont can feature a fast pace, but they also might open with fractions of 25 and 50, leaving the closers without a chance. As with Hofburg, the pedigree is there as he's a son of Curlin and a Street Cry mare. Pletcher is a trustworthy name in this race. Another solid closer.

• Tenfold, 15-1 (Curlin – Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 4-2-0-1 - $289,200): Another Curlin colt, he did not show a whole lot in the Arkansas Derby when Magnum Moon galloped away on a slow pace, but the Preakness effort looks solid. Some argue he even ran better than Bravazo in the slop, and it was only his fourth career start. Must be included.

• Noble Indy, 20-1 (Take Charge Indy – Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux – 5-3-0-1 - $691,600): Surprise. WinStar is likely going to the Belmont with another entrant in Noble Indy. The catch is, Repole Stable owns a bigger chunk of this horse. Bettors can feel safer knowing the connections are not exactly the same as Justify. They should also look at his Louisiana Derby (G2), where he contested a blazing pace and held off late runs from Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack. Da’ Tara Part 2?

• Blended Citizen, 20-1 (Proud Citizen – Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey – 10-3-0-2 - $406,854): This closer narrowly missed the Kentucky Derby, but he won the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont a week later. He actually ran decent in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) too, finishing a closing fifth against winner Good Magic. If he wins, he can follow in the footsteps of Tonalist in 2014, who also skipped the Derby and won the Peter Pan en route to his Belmont win. Watch for him in the stretch.

• Gronkowski, 20-1 (Lonhro – Chad Brown/TBD – 6-4-1-0 - $135,644): This recent transfer to the Chad Brown barn ran in Europe in all six previous starts. Most believe he is too slow to contend, but Brown is an experienced enough trainer to know if his horse can compete at the highest level. Still, if the Timeform numbers he received overseas mean anything, he's not a good fit here. Not a win threat.

• Restoring Hope, 30-1 (Giant’s Causeway – Bob Baffert/TBD – 5-1-1-2 - $149,880): Throw out the Pat Day Mile (G3) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. The Wood Memorial effort two starts ago likely shows his real talent, as he stayed in third the entire time around. He is not a contender in this spot, but he can muddle the pace. An easy toss from tickets.

• Free Drop Billy, 30-1 (Union Rags – Dale Romans/Robby Albarado – 9-2-3-2 - $625,220): He dropped to 16th in the Derby, but there are some things to like. For one, there's the pedigree as a son of 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags. Also, he ran a good race two starts back in the Blue Grass before Sporting Chance veered out and cost him a chance at a better placing. Furthermore, only a few hardcore fans are talking about this horse, which gives him value. Possible overlay.

Summary: Justify skeptics might be fooled by the lower Beyer Speed Figure awarded for the Preakness. While the closely bunched finish is not the best of signs, the hard work came on the far turn when Justify and Good Magic opened up on the field. Because of the fog, the battle was hard to see. He is the best horse, but it is not hard to see why bettors are trying to beat him. There are plenty of good closers to choose from, and a possible upsetter -- see Da' Tara's 2008 Belmont for example -- in Noble Indy.