Dancing dragon the 4yr g running on Sunday 17th June,2018 in The Winner's Circle Trophy over 1600 meters for class one horses rated 75 and above. Among 11 runners accepted Dancing dragon appeals most though running first time in class one. This season three best horses won in good timings over 1400 meters. First Your royal majesty won in timing 1.26.72(rated 110) carrying 58.5kg. Than Sir Cecil won in timing 1.25.45( rated 56) carrying 57kg weight. Third one Dancing dragon won in timing 1.25.67(rated 60) carrying 59.5 kg weight. When all the above three horses won their respective races the false rails width was 6 meters placed from 1600 meters to the winning post and penetrometer reading was 5.1 in YRM case and 4.3 in case of other two horses. Dancing dragon was sitting 5 or 6th till entering straight and burst to the front streching to won detach from the rest. The reduction of weight and extension of distance though penalized 11kg for his last win, hardly make a difference. Because the only serious contender Sana running after a gap of almost four and half months and that too not regularly seen at work. I have seen only two workouts. Further change in distance from 2400 meters to 1600 meters in my opinion requires one or two more workouts. Other nine horses previous runs not encouraging and impressive and that too they are not placed well on weight against these youngsters. So my final first vote goes in favour of Dancing dragon.
14 Replies
Stop Fooling Punter said ...
16-Jun-2018
SC I have decided to skip this race why suddenly?
GUT FEELING both will lose. So BOL to you if D. Dragon wins
Jp said ...
16-Jun-2018
Any horse when win keeps going up the scale and class. It has to run in that class. It is not like few trainers who keep their horses in class B or iv and win race and bring down to the same class. It is for that reason you have maximum horses in that class. RWITC conducts 2 races per day for that class and you will see maximum acceptors whereas many races are cancelled due to paucity of entries. Coming to DD it should win from Knight of Ke and Sana. Sana is also taking this class at Bangalore with no run benefit. Regarding 22 points rating , if you observe that Nigaracua is still a maiden and its points raised by whooping 52 points after it finished 3rd in Chennai St.Legar.
Azim said ...
16-Jun-2018
In my opinion fabulous having an edge in this field.
S C Sharma said ...
16-Jun-2018
Not mentioned about Star Superior because we had a detailed discussion about him in the latest past and recognized his classic capacity beyond any doubt.Whereas DD is a late improving sparingly raced 4 yr.g and defying the handicapper. After tomorrow's run his future in big and graded and terms races will be clear to everyone. Star superior, Sir Cecil are 3 yr. Olds and they are in classic races line.
Ranjit said ...
15-Jun-2018
star superior clocked best timing of the season around 1:24:57 sec.pls verify.
S C Sharma said ...
15-Jun-2018
stop fooling punter: Your contention of whooping 22 points increase and a class promotion/penalty already taken due care in my first analysis itself where I addressed 11kg penalty for last win 11kg equavalent to 22 points and about class also I clearly mentioned first time running in class one. Beating mediocore co. Or average horses is not the argument, Automatic and Pujabi girl are good horses. Further the timing is almost equal to speedy Sir Cecil and DD also won without being fully extended and something more was in reserve. Sana ran number of races and different different distances and reached its pick/class whereas DD very sparingly raced horse and still scope for further improvement. After this run we will analyse in detail. Thanks.
Dull & Devoid said ...
15-Jun-2018
Mr. Sharma has forgotten Star Superior who won in a timing of 1.25.08 secs.
Tiger said ...
15-Jun-2018
"SANA" For Winners Circle Trophy 1600M followed by "FABULOUS".
It is very difficult for any Handicap horse to beat Classic animal like SANA on level weight.
"SANA" will be On-money faviourite on Sunday.
"DANCING DRAGON" is out handicap in Super Class 1(75+ Rating).
TIGER"...............................................................
Stop Fooling Punter said ...
15-Jun-2018
It is nice to have a mature arguements SC.
As stated by me a whopping jump of 22 points for D.D.
Comparing the two D.D. is on an upward chart and seems to a late bloomer but
Sana reached a rating of 88 well before D.D .Agreed run advantage is important but beat very poor company.
If I get 1.25 for a place than worth an each way bet on SANA.
I hope for our sake a 3rd horses does not win !
S C Sharma said ...
14-Jun-2018
stop fooling punter: Rightly pointed by you that Sana worked on Bangaluru track 4 to 5 times after May 15. It's my mistake. But I am concerned about run advantage. One run equavalent to more than five tracks and lack of a run may prove decisive between these two good youngsters.
Stop Fooling Punter said ...
14-Jun-2018
congrats for a exceptional write up. The final result does not matter
D dragon penalised 22 points and one class. the handicapper must have seen something in this horse.
Where as Sana has been down graded from 88 rating to 81.
SC there are 5 tracks and not 2 of Sana
So my choice will be Sana each way. She carrys too much of a class and is winner of BNG summer in 2017 in a lower class
Atchut said ...
14-Jun-2018
DD runs first time in higher class.
No doubt last win was emphatic. Cl-1 n
Cl-v, we must b cautious while wagering.
Stalingrad said ...
14-Jun-2018
@SCSharma
First of all congratulations for being the most successful and consistent over your analysis.. The way you present the things over any thread is so convincing and definitely appreciable.. I must say, you are a good puzzle cracker and you know where to start and where to end and what to let go, which is very important in racing.All the very best for your upcoming analysis..
Coming back to the thread, if no hidden horses kept and as per past history over a year of all the horses running DD must emerge out as champion both in handicap and class.. For me LTLR looks like joker in the set.. Let the best animal win.. all the best to all...
Godzilla said ...
14-Jun-2018
Champion Jockey Trevor is on Dancing Dragon. Should win Shramaji. You are right.
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