The chances of the horse winning are reflected on the odds, it is assumed so, in reality it not so , the money flow determines the odds.
You can be involved in racing as a sport or in it like an investor in the stock market where the value of a share is not always reflected on its price.
If a sportsman the odds should not matter

The above is just to show similarities of both the sport turned market, and the supposedly investor market.

IT IS ALWAYS THE HORSE THAT WINS THE RACE but the horse is just an animal so the homosapiens get the glory. I am in no way trying to infer that the Jockey or trainer do not have a role to play in this, they most definitely do .
Having said that they can play a bigger role in ensuring the horse loses than it wins ( This is where the horse comes into the picture ).

The analysis and logic given by SCS and GG are commendable , I rarely see any emotional involvement in their write ups , they have a solid head on their shoulders. KUDOS to them both.

Its horses that win races--not jockeys or trainers. A jockey is like a driver--positioning well and navigating his way thru. A trainer at best is a mechanic.

Cheers

Thanks to Guru/Ayyarnet/S C Sharma.

Mr Guru : You are absolutely right when you say that horses too have mood. Why not? I once played (I gave up betting altogether in 2014) a 40/100 favourite in Hyderabad (my betting was in Chennai though). What tempted me to play that opening race of the day was the rider (R J Hannam). I played 20k at 43 paisa. Believe me, it was only a 4-horse field and so I was quite confident of me going rich by Rs.6600/- in a matter of minutes. But what happened when the starter's gave the call you know? The favourite did not come out of the gates for almost 10 seconds and that was enough for the second favourite 9/1 (in a 4-horse field) to go clear. Hannam still managed to take the runner-up berth. The mood of the horse is very much important. Thank you so much for pointing out that to present-day punters.

Mr Ayyarnet : How are you Sir? You are correct when you remark that racing has lost its sheen and it's no more like what it used to be years before. Although horse racing itself is a game of uncertainty, it has been rendered totally unpredictable these days. I want to pat on your back for changing your strategy and trying to swim along with the tide. That's a fantastic decision!
Sticking on to your old theory will certainly not benefit. I don't think even Trevor will last long as the punters' darling. Since he is getting more winners than others these days, people speak very high of his riding skills. If you watch his pathetic riding during the previous Mysore season, you will rate some of the Gymkhana riders better than him. All the best to you Sir!

MR S C Sharma : I felt so glad to read your rejoinder to my post. It is full of facts. Yes, good horses make good jockeys. It's as simple as that. When these two factors come very close, it strikes. That's it! Unfortunately, many of us do not accept it or tend to challenge the clause and end up with punctures in pockets. "Possibility of doing wrong things are always there". You are 'dead' right Sir. Congrats for analysing racing so well. I don't think people like you can be on the losing side, provided you are implementing all that you preach. Let me wish you the very best in future racing Sir.

There is a saying and it is true also that good horses makes good jockeys and trainers. If a horse is superior it won't make much difference with jockey. On the other hand if a horse is below average than no jockey in the world can win on it. Jockeyship counts when the horses are equal caliber or the difference between them is less than two lengths than good jockey can cover that 1 or 2 length difference by his riding. That is known as pace judgement and some times judgement from coming inside or outside and when to use the whip to extract something extra from the horse. Similarly if a horse is superior even a jockey with no whip can also win. Refer the latest example of Red Galileo, the horse was badly drawn and even with a no whip jockey won the race. In that race some top jockeys were also riding with whip. So you can't ruled out the contribution of horse and jockey both combination and both are superior than they are bound to deliver the expected results. If they deliberately wants to loose a certain race than it is the matter of enquiry or investigation for the clubs. Whether the jockey rode properly or not or as per given instructions, or trainer and jockey collided in joining hands for defeat of the horse, and you can't stop such things. Possibility of doing wrong things are always there because huge money is involved. Everybody wants to earn by hook or crook. For winning number of other things are also considered like suitability of distance, fitness and condition of the horse and some times betting trend. Even with a average rider some times horses are backed down heavily like Queen latifa yesterday in Bangaluru races. It depends upon how you analyse the race.

My dear friends :
Our SSPP indeed presented correct facts. But in my opinion racing is not
as used to be few years ago. Just like or similar to Climate Change we do have change in Racing. Previously 50% gambling 50% skill or merit Now absolutely GAMBLING ruled by vested interests.

I have stopped calculations and some how I find the winner by the changing odds
and their swift move of Bookmakers only. As far I am concerned it works for me. Previously I used to follow prominent jockeys Since I do not bet heavily and I do control my urges. Still I can say Jockeyship plays a major role in Racing. A Horse may be good but if it is not guided chances of winning will be less. I have struck down from my list Sandesh Suraj or Srinath etc., old favorites. I still stick to Trevor some time it is easy to find he may not win So I skip but whenever odds are good I do take a chance with Trevor and I did gain good dividend.So many races he has won with very good odds Since value of money also gone down I have increased my level of betting to 10K i do not make a living on Races I have income from other sources. I only recycle Racing winning only never mix with business funds.

Best wishes to all
ayyarnet

Very interesting write up. But long back I spoke to a trainer friend of mine regarding the outsiders winning and he told me that one thing which nobody can determine is the mood of the horses during the run of the race. As the author of this write up has rightly pointed out that despite any amount of home and hard work in studying some still end up on the wrong side. I am racing after a long gap in the past one month and I ended up a good winner without knowing much about the current racing trends. So I think that it finally our luck which plays a critical role despite of all our homework and the capabilities of the horse first and then the jockey. Racing is only to be enjoyed and cannot become our livelihood