Handicapping gives an idea of relative 'ability' of runners...
It was ver successfull in 70's, 80's; 90's and even in early decade of this century...
But, perhaps with the erosion of 'real' worth of currency or the change in the 'perception' of the connections, maqny times 'unusual' results of races are presented to a ordinary punter who gets confused...
Agreed, he is not privy to any inside/outside infoormation....
But does - the handicapping fails to help him...
Perhaps not...
To confirm my view I'll post tips for ALL the races of the day of certain centers ( as per my convenient) in the usual format of racebook ( 3 choices) - sometimes even 4 choices; as below :
race 1(R 1) - 2 3 6
R 2 (567)
R 3 75 jodi
In race 1 I'll count my winning ONLY IF 2 WINS
In race 2 I''ll bet on all 3 choices and tne net will be my win/loss amount
IN r3 I'll bet on both and the net will be my profit/loss
sometime I'll bet only on place or 'lay' ( eat- the result will be my win/loss...
I hope to prove that GOOD handicapping can make a punter win money from races...
19 Replies
Chanakya Kaushik said ...
14-Dec-2018
Today our performance was great. We won 5 getting 13 plus units and lost 6 units giving us 7 units lead. Adding earlier 3 units our Flight is 10 units plus, betting on ALL race of day.
P
Race Freak said ...
12-Dec-2018
No chance!!! Races are always changing and confusing across centres,class,weights,form,track and while racing jump,interference, lameness,injury etc.There are occurrence result in without any obvious cause.one lifetime is not enough to understand racing as a punter.
Chanakya Kaushik said ...
11-Dec-2018
@ ITR,
After a long time... you have come back...
In my opinion 'handicapping' is a sum total of various parameters and their relative importance as a handicapper 'purceives' them...
My 'system' or 'method' is based on past performance, current form (track work), pedigree suitability for the distance and some more...
For unraced runners only form and pedigree matters. In this race my choice was Sitara followed by Star Racer.
Star Racer had a run and has better track but his trainer's performance is average while Desmukh is heading the list of trainers. Moreover, G Naresh Performance is very poor- 9% , while Neeraj Rawal has 40% win rate...
Another point - It is well established by various pedigree experts that a female younster mature earlier and performs better than colts and geldings as 2/3 year old...
Indian_turf_record said ...
11-Dec-2018
.You have mentioned a "handicapping" system. Could you please explain "handicapping" method by which you arrived at SITARA having first run of its life ? All the same well done. A winner is winner.
Chanakya Kaushik said ...
10-Dec-2018
@ all,
I started this excercise to explore the possibility of getting a positive ROI, even if a punter plays all the races. It is universally touted, accepted and assumed that it is not possible to get positive ROI by betting on all or most of the races of the day...
I don't fully agree with this assumption. I think a good handicapping system may be able to give a positive ROI, howsoever small it may be. Obviously, it can not be 50% or even 30% but if it is close to 10%, I feel I have made my point.
Let us see, how it goes...
I must make it clear that to calculate my returns I'll use Mumbai's bookmakers odds ...
I've attmpted first 8 races of Mumbai and 7 races of Hyderabad today.
Yesterdat I won 4 and lost 4 races - wins were mostly at Evens or little more , therefore, the ROI was negligible . However the begining was satisfactory..
Today we won 5/2 in first race, 8/1 in 4th. race and lost 2 units in 2nd., 3 units in 3rd. 1 in 5, 1/2 in 6th. (1 was 3/1 and deadheat reduced it to 3/2) and 1 in last race . Net result + 10.5 - 7.5 = + 3.0.
Yesterday we were quits and today we are 3 units plus....
Mysore winter/summer I do not consider for THIS EXERCISE... next day will be Mumbai...
Crk said ...
10-Dec-2018
@ Chanakya K,
This is an exercise in futility. The media gives 3 choices,and out of 21 choices,even if half WIN or Place, it is no big deal, as one will end up winning/losing marginally. So, what is the point ? Advocating to play all races is suicidal, and avoided at all costs. The best of handicappers/punters do not advocate such ideas.
A suggestion... Pick 2 or 3 races,put your time ,knowledge and efforts in handicapping those races and give those selections in clear terms WIN/PLACE/LAY.. With the kind of experience in racing, hopefully you will better serve the members here, if that is your intention.
After all, proof of the pudding is in the eating !
Madu Uppar said ...
10-Dec-2018
@Chanakya,
In my opinion, many times we earn on fluke horses, on multi selection. But end of the day empty pocket. I am one of hidden viewer of this HT. As a punter I am here for only due to HT and like you. I missing many more old HT members like
Longer Odds, Kabir, SK Sagar, Dustintorry, Nilban, Rameyer, Ksmrow, Libero many more please come back.
Lucky Laxman said ...
10-Dec-2018
You are absolutely correct Mr.Chanakyaji, sometimes it will be difficult to select even one horse. Your posting of 1 or 2 is always right. Please keep it up n good luck.
Chanakya Kaushik said ...
09-Dec-2018
We tried 8 races. 4 won 4 lost . As winners were close to even or little more , therefore, there is no appreciable win or loss...
But a satisfactory begining is made indicating that betting on all races a handicapper can get positive ROI...
I'll try 100+ races of different centers and collate the final result later on...
Hunter said ...
09-Dec-2018
So long as you have rogues like G Sandhu and Rakesh on the loose, how are you going to win consistently?
Lock ''m up..
Crk said ...
09-Dec-2018
An attempt at ...Squaring the Circle !
Raghavan said ...
09-Dec-2018
yes. yes. One can win by betting in all races in India. Further one can win by betting all horses in the race.
We are tired of hearing the ways and means to win in races. For a change, let us hear about the ways to lose. 95 to 99 percent punters are well versed in this art.
Do not mislead the punters. By betting in limited number of races, 3 races is ideal, one can even go for 4 races. Beyond that if you persist, you will have to sell the house, pledge family jewels etc.
Do one thing. Select horses in one or two or even three races. Bet those three horses according to your capacity. 1000, 2000 or 5000. The other races go for some forecast/trinella pools at an outlay of 200 or below.
Chanakya Kaushik said ...
09-Dec-2018
@ Hals,
I have been giving 1 or more selections since many days...
This is a different experiment....
Chanakya Kaushik said ...
09-Dec-2018
@ Krish,
Handicapping is not boring...
It is time consuming and taxing but gives you a high when your choice succeeds...
@ Godzilla,
Let us see ....
Chanakya Kaushik said ...
09-Dec-2018
@ Rksh,
Thanks. I'll try to give a runner who has bet chance to win or place...
Hals said ...
08-Dec-2018
Well said Chanakya sir, handicapping in India defers in every centre. In some cases it's very harsh and in the other centre it's confusing though the principle of of handicapping is to give equal chance to all participants. My personal request is instead of studying all races it is better to try one or two races especially the upcoming youngsters where the manipulation from the connections are less but for a few . Pl consider. Thanks.
Godzilla said ...
08-Dec-2018
chanakya
No is my answer.
Krish said ...
08-Dec-2018
Handicaping business is boring and ignore it. Just pick a your choice and play Win/SHP/THP in any track of Kolkata, Bangaluru or Mysuru. At the end you will never loose. This is my opinion. Please try one or two times and decide yourself to continue with this method. The brain has limited capacity and just exploite it. Great!
Rksh said ...
08-Dec-2018
Thank you very much Chanakya sir...
I don't know about others but I respect ur ideas and know about ur knowledge on handicapping.
It will surely be a blessing for punters like us who still get confused after mix up of self handicapping, odds , and writeups ( analysis) on rwitc website....
Please do help us by sharing ur tips ,whatever others may comment...It's a lifegiving for some here...plz understand..
Thank you once again...one request is , even if u tip all races, plz post whats ur best tip on that day ( I mean u think it's sureshot on that day,even if place)..
God bless u