Indian Derby 2019 – Review, Analysis & Forecast

On 3^rd February 2019, the Indian racing witnessed a “David-Goliath” kind-of-race unfold in front of their eyes, when the mighty unbeaten grey colt Sir Cecil met his Waterloo moment, in probably the most important race of his life, The Indian Derby. And it was none other than the wounded lion Star Superior, who waited for his time with a never-say-die attitude, and hit the wire first when it mattered the most.

Why Sir Cecil Lost

For a horse who had won all the eight starts, and with sheer audacity almost every time, a win over here was a foregone conclusion. His trainer put him in the league of all-time greats he had trained. Hence, form or even staying ability was never a question. The only factor of suspicion was his fitness, for which he was offered odds above evens. But going by the race that he ran, it appeared Sir Cecil was hardly at 60-65% of his regular fitness. A horse, in my opinion, should be flawlessly sound to be able to win a Group 1 at mile and a half. Sir Cecil’s fitness was so poor on Sunday, that even his class couldn’t compensate for it. However, to run third in 02:30.13 with such niggle is still no mean feat. One bad day doesn’t make a champion any less competent, and hence Sir Cecil lives to fight another day.

Why Star Superior Won

More than Sir Cecil’s loss, it was Star Superior’s win which stunned the racing public. And for the reason that he had lost to Sir Cecil thrice (and twice at his pet distance mile) which was enough to predict that he will run behind him. However, his turn-of-foot and the never-say-die attitude made it possible to put up a magnificent show and made everyone sit back in awe, for a gallop which will be remembered forever. If we remove Sir Cecil from those three races, Star Superior would still have won the Bangalore Colts Champions by 6.25 lengths, The Derby Bangalore by 7.5 lengths and the Indian 2000 Guineas by 6.75 lengths, and still be a winner of Mumbai Colts Championship, Deccan Colts Championship, Deccan Derby & Ruia Gold Cup. This was something that almost everyone, including me, ignored, due to stamina limitations in his pedigree. But the fact that he ran 5 lengths ahead of Adjudicate, is still something that will make us scratch our heads for some more time. Meanwhile, this crop has also shown the true ability of Excellent Art, and has given ample indications that if mated with a staying mare, he too can produce long distance runners for Grade races.

What Lies Ahead

The Indian Turf Invitation Cup Gr1 awaits us as the final frontier for this 2015 born crop. According to some (unreliable) sources, Sir Cecil might need some more time to recover and hence, whether he can get fit and running for the big race, will be a matter of debate in racing circles in the weeks to come. Star Superior on the other hand is likely to go in as a favorite in Invitation Cup, thanks to the Derby win. Whether the Excellent Art colt can come out victorious in another Gr 1 classic at 2400m is something that remains to be seen, but should he do so, it would be a shot-in-the arm for Excellent Art and The Poonawala Stud Farm. Adjudicate, who looked picture perfect in the paddock and ended as the runner-up, ran a bold race and is likely to improve going further. Roberta, from Pesi Shroff’s yard is expected to make amends in the Invitation Cup and should compensate for her controversial-exit from Derby at the eleventh hour. Sacred Roman, The Invader & Indian Pharaoh will be a rank-outsiders and need to be observed closely in morning tracks in the build-up to Invitation Cup. However, from the older lot, not many inspire the confidence. With Temerity, Manifold & Lady In Lace retired to stud and Kangra inconsistent on form, there is hardly any representation from fillies. Desert God, Mathaiyus, Caprisca & Salazaar (if they run) would be the ones to watch out for despite their drubbing in The Eclipse Stakes. Smasher has improved vastly and has come out as one of the best horses in the ongoing Mumbai season and cannot be ignored.

So, with about four weeks in balance for the Invitation Cup, the race wears a wide-open look and a 4-year old is again likely to win it, eluding the older crop of this prestigious crown. Keep a close-look on the horses mentioned above as they will be the ones who will shine on Invitation weekend.

Here are a few figures and numbers of the 2015-born crop:-

Highest Stake Earners (Above 1cr)

1.       Star Superior 3.26cr

2.       Sir Cecil 3.18cr

3.       Adjudicate 1.65cr

4.       Corfe Castle 1.58cr

5.       Indian Pharaoh 1.17cr

6.       The Invader 1.11cr

7.       My Opinion 1.04cr

Highest Rated Horses (Above 80)

1.       Star Superior 106

2.       Indian Pharaoh 100

3.       Subah Ka Tara 98

4.       Sir Cecil & Adjudicate 92

6.       My Opinion 91

7.    The Invader & Shivansh 88

9.     Roberta 81