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Mumbai Selections Under Horse Racing System 21/3/19

By Dharmesh | 20-Mar-2019

My selections under HORSE RACING SYSTEM are as under. 

Race #1 Horse #5 MOMENTUM 

Horses for distances

Rules:

In any race, bet a horse if it is the only winner over today's distance, provided that it is also on the first three lines in the pre-post betting market.

Logic:

Horses are susceptible to changes in distance. They may not perform at their best with even a slight increase or decrease in the distance they have to run. If there is only one horse that has won over today's distance, it may well hold a big advantage over the others.

More than half of all winners are on the first three lines in the pre-post betting market, so this qualifying factor eliminates no-hopers whose distance win may have been a long time ago, or in a low class.

MOMENTUM is in tremendous form at present, having won his last two starts over C&D, and he looks improving with every start and as per above logic looks set to make it three in a row.

Race #2 Horse #5 ARABESQUE 

Beaten favourites with sights lowered

Rules:

Bet any horse that is competing for less prize money than on its previous run provided that it was a favourite or joint-favourite on that previous outing.

Lower prize money takes into account prize money for the winner only.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:

Lower prize money normally indicates a lower class or lesser quality race. If a horse attracted enough support to warrant favouritism in a better event, then it should have strong claims against lesser opposition.

This set of circumstances often indicates a retrieval mission, with connections attempting to recoup previous losses. An easier task is often chosen for the horse when this is the case.

ARABESQUE let down favourite backers last time in a grade 3 million event and could easily make amends here under above logic. 

Race #5 Horse #1 POCO AZUL 

Hat trick attempts

Rules:

Bet any horse that has won its last two races provided that it is not racing in a higher class than for its last win. If there are any other runners in the same race that have won their last two or more races, there is no bet.

Logic:

The vast majority of horses never win a race of any kind in their lives, so the end of a hat trick of successes is seen as a fine achievement. If so, preparation for the hat trick bid is thorough, and the confidence that winning brings adds the chances of the horse, especially if there is no hike in class and there are no opponents in a similar run of form.

PACO AZUL has bolted up on both starts so far this year and as per above logic he is strongly fancied to complete the hat-trick. 

( watch market trend for this particular horse as it belongs to gambling stables) 

Race #6 Horse #1 PABLO 

Handicappers down in class

Rules:

1. System concentrates on handicap races only.

2. A qualifying runner must have the clear highest official rating in the race.

3. It must also have finished in the first four home on its last run.

4. Its last run must have been in a handicap of a higher class than today's race.

5. A qualifier's latest run must have been in the same type of event as today's.

Logic:

Whilst factors like track type, distance, ground etc are all important, class is the single most important consideration. Even if a horse is perfectly suited to today's track, distance and ground, it will not win if it is outclassed.

This system aims to locate handicappers who are not only clear highest rated in a race, but who have also proved themselves to be competitive at a higher level in recent times.

PABLO’s stamina was clearly stretched over a mile trip last time and, back at what appears to be his optimim trip and eased in grade, he could be the answer under above category of HRS. 

Best of luck! 

Post Your reply

39 Replies

Raj said ...

22-Mar-2019

Dharmesh  Good.Keep it up.

You are always giving good.

Aravind said ...

22-Mar-2019

Daremesh selection after such  deep study and writing only two horses won other two lost after taking down punters money. But the horses which won doesn't need so much for elobaration of their chances.ofcourse Momentum had some opponents but last race Sandesh win is certain web at the time of declaration itself. Many punters has more than 20 years of experiencing I racing.each has different yardstick to arrive their calculation.some oblige some fail.so we all on every race day try to work new methods but whatever we reach cent percent owners trainers has different calculation which ultimately prove we are wrong. That's racing. My method of betting is only at the time of every race I decide depends upon odds at bookie and tote. Mostly it gives profit though my bet is not big what it was in 80sand90s

R.k.sehgal said ...

22-Mar-2019

Dear Dharmesh,

Fantastic Right -up.

God bless you.

RKS

 

Patibandla Rajesh said ...

21-Mar-2019

Your ideas are excellent dharmeshji....

Dharmesh said ...

21-Mar-2019

Thank you all for your appreciation and support. 

Whenever if I find some good bet under HRS I will surely post. 

Tomorrow BLUE BLAZER and LAND OF LIBERTY looks good under recent winner and Quick re-appearance logic of HRS but due to paucity if time can’t give detailed write-up. 

 

Regards 

Srinivas said ...

21-Mar-2019

@Darmesh

50% winning % is an excellent result.   Bottomline is if one had backed all your 4 choices, he would have returned home with a decent packet.

Thanks for your wonderful tipping, please keep it up !

Rrajesh said ...

21-Mar-2019

Dharmesh ....keep them coming

Dharmesh said ...

21-Mar-2019

Happy Holi to all ! 

 

@Larry, hi 

 

Marianella is Pesi discard ( May have some health issue) and I normally ignore any horse’s first run under new trainer after changing stables. 

 

Regards 

Aditya Singh said ...

21-Mar-2019

Dear IRians,

BRONX- The Mumbai track has worn down a fair bit by now and Momentum is bound to feel its legs. Bronx is a heavy-on-rotor muscle horse and its stride span, as evidenced by videos, is remarkable. When such horse closes on a free-flowing frontrunner from a lower class (momentum), the lower class animal can feel its legs in the final furlong. And while momentum, truly, is the only distance winner, to me, Bronx's running style makes it suitable for even the rigorous Suresh Mahindra...Play Bronx confidently.

OUI SAVAGE- royal crystal, a small yard animal, has lost condition. Silver flames did something remarkable on debut but such spectacular, hard-to-believe runs of big owners' horses are nearly never repeated over such a short duration. Cutting the long story short, railbirds will anticipate the flash of silver flames in the final furlong but the flash wouldn't come today. Oui Savage- has all the bases covered. It has won the most fiercely fought race in Indian horse racing since Carla and Sirono fought out in Bangalore. This in itself gives a "3 plus length" condition to a horse. And the extra furlong and retention of Sandesh tilts the scale heavily in favour of the Savage.

POCO AZUL- watch how Akshay signalled to the owners at the wire...it was like saying...hey bosses! I did what was asked for. So Akshay and Poco Azul are a reliable combination. Mansoor shah is in a situation where every move of his going to be scrutinised by the stewards so unfair play is ruled out..the best part is this..watch the last video of Poco and how he beautifully positions himself for the homestretch dash. It implies that Akshay rates the horse highly. It changed legs twice in the 2nd last furlong but still had enough steam left to give 4 lengths to the nearest runner. A hat trick is no mean feat and a trainer under a cloud would love to achieve it.

So Bronx, Oui Savage and Poco Azul are my picks..

Godspeed!

 

Baskar S said ...

21-Mar-2019

Happy Holi to all,

 

I'm about to enjoy

Rukshad said ...

21-Mar-2019

Dear Dharmesh,

First & foremost excellent write up...the logic used with conviction to find a winner is fab...yes there are many parameters one can take into equations, but the truth of the matter is connection decision counts a lot at end of each race...I have been great fan n admirer of ur selections over the years....infact have recommended ur name to quiet a few followers of HR...the strike rate of ur prediction is consistent that's most important...sever several times thru the day u might have not got ur selections right, but one horse / race ur winner would win at higher odds...so readers it's not important all selection would go right....

Always wondered from which part of india u belong, since always wanted to meet u  to share ur experience n knowledge...I know Admin won't allow personal details to be shared...

Hope to meet u somehow one day...God bless...keep the posting continue....

Larry said ...

21-Mar-2019

Hello Dharmesh,

It's been a while since you posted your observations based on this theory. I do have that chart, however for lack of time, am not able to refer to it, so thanks for this write-up, and hoping that you'd continue doing so.

Don't want to go against you, or anything of that sort, however, just for the last race I'd request you to have a look at Marianella. Based on the company that she's run in (Race7), with a couple of the runners there winning 2 or 3 times, this one comes across as a good bet for me, however, please note, this is just my observation, and not trying to take away anything from the hard work that you've put in to post this.

All the very best.

S S said ...

21-Mar-2019

Bronx the one 

Crk said ...

21-Mar-2019

@ Dharmesh, Shaikh Asif, Indian Turf Record , Larry, All here and ADM.

HAPPY HOLI.

Game Plan said ...

21-Mar-2019

Bronx days best bet

2. Arabesque

3. Aquarius

4.isinit

5. Poco azul

6.chosen one

Venkat said ...

21-Mar-2019

There ius no Logic in horse racing. There cannot be since wagering is involved. One day they will run like chapions, the next time run like duds.Unless it is a horse mostly in black type races.

On tthe other hand, I study the odds carefully. For example, if Momentum (Race #1.-Horse #5) ran in Class 3 over this distance would be at 1/2 money. But it is made to run in Class2-- a double jump and thus, will give odds above 2/1. This is why Momentum will win or try very hard. A horse on the job ius ideally the best to bet on. But we don not have the connection's information. You recall Mathyias who did a similar thing. He gave 24/10 the day he ran over an identical distance in two classes above his last class when he won easing up! It is a coincidence that the owners and the Trainer are the sme.

Cheers

Bhavya said ...

21-Mar-2019

Excellent write up on today's Mumbai night racing 

Isr said ...

21-Mar-2019

@ dharmesh ji

Excellent Art of writing. Thanks

 

Bhavya said ...

21-Mar-2019

Mr Dharmesh, Amazing write up I have ever seen in my tenure of racing.

J Shivaji said ...

21-Mar-2019

Dharmesh you are Good Boss !!

Zeddzzz. said ...

21-Mar-2019

Hi Dharmesh,

Me, A Big Big BIG Fan Of Yours Since The Day One.

About Your Above Right Up.

It's An  XXXXXXX  TREMELY  AWESOMELY  INTERESTING, BEYOND  EXCELLENT  And  AMAZINGLY  EDUCATIVE.

Many M M M Thanks For Sharing.

May God Give You Excellent Health, Tons Of Positive Energy  And  Loads Of Knowledge To Continue Helping People.

Take Care.

Mad Max said ...

21-Mar-2019

TWO GOOD BETS

1-1 GLORIOUSUS-WIN

3-3 DRAGONMOSS-WIN

UPSET

6-10 MARIANELLA-WIN

 

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

R.ramachandran said ...

21-Mar-2019

Dear Dharmesh ji, I am happy you have taken your time and your brillance in taking out so many winner's in the past. I have learned handicap'ing but what is that intuition you have in abudanc to pick out winner's.

Robrod said ...

21-Mar-2019

Awesome, Sir

Nish said ...

21-Mar-2019

Good reply @ shantnu mysore . This type of repl help to all us. Good debate help us all in racing. So all plz relpy with respect. Thanx agin darmashgi allso

Shanthamysore said ...

21-Mar-2019

Dharmesh sir ,

 

Thanks for posting on racing system I have seeing this type of post by you before 2 years and I also noted you rules in my note book actually you are also one of my guru to learn how racing is held on rule system .

Now I starts my experience by saying sorry before because it should not discourage your opinion of today selection if I may be wrong on understanding the system but my opinion. 

 

Momentum: why I fell it is to difficult to win means there are 3 promotion in this race and one is above and one below of momentum and buttom two horses are not aliblble for this class momentum is going for double class promotion and Sussex is going for promotion (but have run benefit in class 2)and it is normal race if it is weight raised on handicap race mean momentum is one horse race but handicapper is not matched it's weight on class by raising in handicap. So Bronx is my pick but Sussex pride also have a ability to demolish the field because it have run with glorious in class 2 and now distance up for 2400 .

 

It's my opinion please don't  fell bad on my reply just I sharing my experience if momentum win I am also happy because I never bet a horse which field is less than 8 I am going trinilla and execta box with 1,2,5,6.

Sorry and thank you. 

 

 

Praveen said ...

21-Mar-2019

Momentum won twice in class 4. Beat older & out of form horses . Facing tough opposition  now in class 2. Logically Momentum has no chance to succeed here.

Marshall said ...

21-Mar-2019

Greetings.... Sir a great fan of yours and Ruchi sir always admired yours and Ruchi sirs write-up.... Thanks for this wonderful spectacular detailed write up mind blowing, i normally stay away from commenting of any sort ...but on this occasion I could not bear to stay quiet thanks a million..lots of HT friends will be educatioted from this master piece...i still remember in 2015 r 16 in Pune season out of 8 races u had 7 winners and 1 short head second ......God bless u a big thank u for this wonderful service you are doing ....bless u with good health......????????????????????

Crk said ...

21-Mar-2019

@ Dharmesh,

Your post and analysis of selected race with reference to the horse racing system is testimony to your racing wisdom gained through your research and passion for the sport..That you have chosen to present the working behind your selections (time tested) is a reflection of the person you are. Will look forward to your similar posts on this fascinating sport.Thanks and  Regards.

Austin Shu said ...

21-Mar-2019

Good morning sir...i am not an expert in picking winners...your advise seems very good m logic...i always miss out on one horse regularly....wat about isinit...chosen one n we make the rules...

Shaik Asif said ...

21-Mar-2019

@ sc sharm ji , Dr cheenu Sab, mad max sir, Godzilla's sir, Rrajesh sir, god is great sir,race bro sir, and anushree mam  a very happy and colourful holi

Shaik Asif said ...

21-Mar-2019

@    admin and htalk.  a very happy holly .

Shaik Asif said ...

21-Mar-2019

@ dharmesh sir firstofal a very happy and colour full holly and very big thanks for ur post and explaining the logic about ur choices . it is very useful to punter,s like me to understand the card and pick winner once again a very big thanks god bless u and ur family.

Rrajesh said ...

21-Mar-2019

Amazing . And so very true

 

Thanks  for sharing 

 

Rao Unvsss said ...

21-Mar-2019

Similar explanation for all the races awaiting.

Chandrashekar said ...

21-Mar-2019

Faisal a Abbas horse is too strong Contend in 5th  race ???? no 7 amyn merchant rider

Tiger said ...

20-Mar-2019

Thank you Dharmesh ji for an excellent write up.

Very few people I have come across who understands racing so closely. We are really lucky that every HRS of yours gives us opportunity to learn something new. 

Thank you again and please keep guiding us.

 

TIGER"................................................................

Pablito said ...

20-Mar-2019

In one word , EXCELLENT. period

Ajoy Shah said ...

20-Mar-2019

@dharmesh. Interesting observation and system.