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Picking Winners- Easy Or Difficult

By S C Sharma | 20-Jun-2019

The basic and the first and foremost thing in horse racing is to assume the game is honest and the result will be as per merit, because if you are predermined and assume the game is unfair than the very purpose of your attending races for enjoyable and profitable racing will not be served and you start blame game for every failure and loss.

It rests up to you to select such races where you rely upon confidently that this race will be fair and the possible result will be based on merit.. Further if you have doubt about some stable or trainer, owner or jockey or if you think the honesty and integrity of such persons is in question than you can easily avoid betting  for such races and avoid possible disappointment and frustration and blame game.

I want to clear further that merit can be beaten or cheated some time but each and every time it cannot be defeated by such means, otherwise there will be no public faith in racing and race clubs have to close their business and activities.

The tempting factor in racing is quick money, quick recovery and fast money and all these factors lead to punter in different direction where you loose your money and confidence, change the game plan, listen more to inside informations and set aside your handicapping and calculations. Pl take some important points into consideration before picking your bet and the points are:

1) Thoroughbred/bloodlines 2) Track work of last three weeks 3) Suitable distance of the horse ( sprint, middle or long ) 4) Rating and Class 5) Age group in comparison with other horses 6) Handicapping, speed and timing rating/points 7) Change of equipment, shoeing, race day incidents and veterinary reports. 8) Jockeys performance and rating 9) Condition of the track / surface report and latest info about weather, going, false rails and details of penetrometer reading etc., 10) In form, no form and out of form details if any 11) Following of one system of betting with specific budget and game plan without effecting routine livelihood  12) If possible observe paddock condition and body weight of the horse in comparison with previous body weight. Excess weight and allowance if any.

I tried to make your task little easy and hard if you are serious about picking winners. Good luck.

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21 Replies

Bobby said ...

22-Jun-2019

Well written Sharmaji. I would just like to add that we must maintain a list of horses we play. If it has failed on a particular day the tendency is to discard it. However, my belief is that if it is running at the same distance and similar bunch one must play it. Do not discard your fancied horses when they run in future without assessing its potential again.

S C Sharma said ...

21-Jun-2019

@ Master of Passion:  Thanks for your compliments and best wishes. Dieseas in horses are not uncommon and like human being horses do suffer and many enexpected things happen in their life. Trainer can guess and assess when horses inclined for daily diet or show signals of distress or uneasiness while working at track ( physical exercise ). Routine health check ups are conducted to notice abnormality, and as required they are treated with care.

If a horse undergone any surgery, or kept under treatment and observation medical bulletins are available and before accepting such horse for running, fitness certicates are also issued. Now maximum dieseas are curable including ‘ tendon ‘ problem. You have to assume satisfying fitness for all runners or refer paddock looks for too excess or drop of body weight and coat shinning which are common parameters which effect the running.

Master Of Passion said ...

21-Jun-2019

Respected Sharma Sir,

 

Thank you very much for your valuable information on picking up winner and how to make useful study.

You are such a kind hearted person God  bless you always.Sir your knowledge & experience of racing is superior from others that's make you SIR....

Do continue your valuable tips on racing and some info on injury of horses like phelbits,soar, sesamoiditis, cellulitis,eswt,hob day,gultural pouch infection,when to back such horse after these injury.do advice us sir.

S C Sharma said ...

21-Jun-2019

Thanks to Syed ans Santosh. As regards Santosh request I can only say due to space and time limitations we cannot elaborate things in more detail. The best thing you can attend a day’s workshop to learn these things in detail and contact for the same at www.scshorseracing.com.

I appreciate the views of Chanakya and Photofinishravi. You always place your views. Everyone’s angle of viewing things differ many times but it helps in correcting the things in right perspective and for updates.

S C Sharma said ...

21-Jun-2019

GODZILLA: Why you bent upon proving yourself  innocent or wrong. No one is suggesting two horses in a single race to win or recommending as you interpret . They mere give their choices in order of preference like, first choice and next best choice. Some times it helps in a case of withdrawal of a horse, like in  recently concluded meeting of Mysore races in sixth race number of persons picked Monte greco as their first pick,  and the horse withdrawn. In that same race I quoted Beat the odds as  my second choice / next best pick, which won. Similarly number of small punters using the choices in place or shp and benefitted. What is the problem with you? I don’t consider whether you follow any one else, apart from yourself ?  So what difference it makes to you? 

Your second doubt why races won by horses other than given two choices? This is the beauty and excitement and risk factor that’s why we are telling only certainty in racing is uncertainty and advising to play selected races on selected race days. We are not advising to play all  races and all picks and the same also clarified number of times. We are only making the bet - selection process easy with our picks. If it suits and matches to you than play,  if hesitation or doubt leave it. The final power of  deciding the bet rest with you. If you able to pick winners in all races than  overnight you will become millionaire. If making easy money remains so easy than nobody will do any other business or remain in service and make racing only full fledge business. Every time we are cautioning one and all, about  no dependency on racing.

 

Godzilla said ...

21-Jun-2019

Sharmaji

Experienced punters are very much aware of the basic factors enumerated by you in picking the probable winner.

Inspite of possessing such knowledge, will you elaborate, why certain suggest two horses in a Race as likely winner. ?What is the advantage factor between first choice and second choice ? Why in most cases, other horses win, despite two choices given by experts?.

I am eager to know and gain further knowledge from you.

Chanakya said ...

21-Jun-2019

@ S C sharma,

I've a different opinion about Korol's defeat. The connections always won at good odds - 5/2 or more. This day he was odds on and was kept in the middle bunch and made to come from far out, obviously to lose. Therefore, the next best Constantine won the race, due to weight advantage over London...

Syed said ...

21-Jun-2019

well said sir,this is the only way out.Hats off to you.

Photofinishravi said ...

21-Jun-2019

Dear S.cC.Sharma ji

I fell its very easy to point out reason after the outcome of race result.In fact

a punter put bet on particular horse after watching the ring movement feels he had done right choice because most of punters are putting bet blindly without knowing the fact of track/jockey/past performance just hearing the voice of cutters and regular bigh amount playing punters as the assumption of this if he can tack risk of that much amount why not me and after loosing just give blame to jockey mostly kheech liya  not try his best .

i feel to many factor that gives advantage to bookie  and that is what they always gives odds to best  known hot favorite horses .

First gate entry weather horse will enter smoothly or not.

Draw of horse good and bad as per racing expert.

surface condition of track. Good going/smooth going/soft surface and every horse have different type of liking.

Traffic at the time of race run.

Accident Chance More or less try & un try condition not known accurately just prediction by our on easement  on previous performance & that to not known correctly.

Trainer & jockey intention.

so it is very difficult to make correct winner prediction as you are choosing every selection on past performance which is differ every run on same horse hence it is calls game of skills. Some one is having more and some or less so crying on loosing the favorite horses are not always correct.

I request all punters to choose the final bet after doing study with your won as every one is not born with silver spoon in his mouth.

Thanks

Santosh said ...

20-Jun-2019

Hii Sharma sir ,very useful informations ..and I need to lear from you is what are the things to observe in track works ..and why are the equipment’s used and their uses ..any one can teach me plzzz..

Wild Card Entry said ...

20-Jun-2019

Excellent sharma ji, helping others from the bottom of you heart. 

Deepak said ...

20-Jun-2019

Thank you sharmajii for a wonderfully advice. I will follow only your  choices and I will wait patiencely 

Krish said ...

20-Jun-2019

Dear all!

Remember when you were new to horse racing, you use to win lot of races with good odds. Reason, you were playing with certain decipline. Afterwords  day by day you are schooled to learn horse racing system of 12 points as mentioned by Sharmaji which leads to narrow down your picks to favorites. There are several negative forces are working against favorites and ultimately all so called punters burn their fingers.

Have a great day!

S C Sharma said ...

20-Jun-2019

DEEPAK: Number of times the fluctuating odds confuse the punter if he is not determined or firm on his choice and change the choice. Like Constantine race at Mysore. Korol became hot favourite whereas Korol lacks initial speed and the distance and handicap was more suited to Constantine. Secondly patience is the key for success. Every race, everyday  and very consistently you can’t get winners because racing is based on number of variable factors which plays a role and requires deep analysis as I mentioned in my above post. Thirdly number of persons are guiding you on this forum. You prepare a small group of persons whome you like most and who are really more constantly delivering good than compare to others, tally their picks and where uniformity is found in their picks,  follow them, otherwise wait, patience will pay you in long run.

Siva Ramakrishna said ...

20-Jun-2019

Respected Sharma Sir,

The Article you have posted just hours back is really wonderful and 100% useful for the less knowledge punters like me...Each and every point is very fine though I didn't understand exactly... due to lack of technical knowledge about racing...As you said in the last paragraph "It is little bit easy & hard to pick the winner"...

Thank you very much Sir...Kindly post this type of articles to increase the confidence levals of punters to learn about the racing...Many punters who are interested to learn and enjoy racing with a little knowledge deffinately follow your teachings...Sir You are good teacher and a wonderful learner also...All your writings in HT proved it many times...Lastly I can say only one thing...I bow my head in front you as a person of knowledge with sweet heart...With regards...Siva Ramakrishna.

Hals said ...

20-Jun-2019

Thanks Sharmaji for your useful suggestion. Racing has become gambling and no owner, trainer or jockey is honest always all they want is to become richer by the day. Manipulation has become part of racing. However still some hope is there for fair game especially when the youngsters are racing, as they cannot pull the horse everytime. Hence I suggest experts can concentrate on upcoming 3yolds where the record shows  that  your suggestions on Pedigree, dist., body weight, equipment change, handicap, class can be calculated by some deep study, which pays dividends most of the time,if not always. Thanks.

Kolramsri said ...

20-Jun-2019

It is universal acceptance, that a gambler can never make money out of any form of gambling (incl Horse Racing) for a reasonable length of time. Law of averages will finally catch up with him, and see that he lament till the end of his days. If you are so addicted to racing, the only way to come out with limited damage is to buy pool tickets. Investment under no circumstances should exceed one-tenth of your day's income. Do not ask for tips. Have confidence in yourself. Winning from Horse racing here is next to impossible. Even great M.A.M had his quota of shocks, in spite of gathering 90% info from Racing Professionals all over India.

Venkateswarlugupta said ...

20-Jun-2019

Thank you ji. Very very important and useful post ji.

Smart-still-poor-punter said ...

20-Jun-2019

A very useful post, particularly to starters. 

It's true that one should be clear which race to play and which centre to attend. Visiting race-course everyday and playing every race will certainly not help your cause if making money is the goal.

Hardly 10% of the public who engage in racing have belief in the deal. A whopping 90% knows it's not going to be easy to earn from here. Precisely, this is what has been happening with almost every race-goer since decades. If anyone claims that I built a house with money earned from racing alone, see him as the biggest lier.

Horse racing should first be a hobby and then a sport, and finally a business act. It exactly started like that for me. In fact, it began as a profession for me, soon became a hobby, then sport and finally a business. In about 20-25 years of racing, I earned so much but only to give all that back to the bookies, with interest?

After giving up racing in 2014, till date I have not ventured into any race course for the sake of keeping the hobby alive or watching the sport. It's a costly hobby and an always "wait for the result" sport.

It's true that you must do your homework perfectly well even before you enter the race-course. Once Nehru asked Sarvapalli Radhakrishnan to take a two-hour class in Delhi University the next day. Sarvapalli refused to take the offer for the next day and sought at least two days' time. To this, Nehru quipped "Such an intellect require two days to take a two-hour class?" See what was the reply "I may be a king in my chosen field but if I have no proper preparation I may not succeed in my mission". 

Unfotunately, in a centre like Mysuru (you can add Hyderabad, Kolkata and Delhi also to this list) no amount of preparation seems to be helping. Am I right?

Our friend Mr Raghavan often used to say "play less". He's very much correct because when you pay less, you also lose less. Mr S C Sharma is doing so much of hard work to get us so many winners and places in Bengaluru this season. He can't be blamed if his choices go wrong too. If everyone remains agile and well prepared, results are bound to be positive. 

P.S : The naked truth : You can't make money in horse racing.

Starone said ...

20-Jun-2019

Well narrated Sharmaji,  

Indeed its very useful, the foremost I like was to have belief in merrit, though it can be cheated but not defeated.  Agreed .

Another important factor is Trainer/ Owner/ Jockey combination -  the pet combinations , any change of lesser known jockeys would only go in for run of the horse .

My point of view strictly.

Deepak said ...

20-Jun-2019

Hello sharamjii I went to Mysore race yesterday and ur tip was good but I was so confused by the rates and other stuffs I could not play. I am big follower of you Sirji. Please help me in giving days best for Bangalore and also advice me on how many races to play in a particular day