Mum 2nd. Win 5.

@Glasgow Prince

Today Mumbai I will use my method of numbers and post winners or place as races progress. Will post 10 min before each race after 1st racein this thread.

@ all,

It  is  really  unfortunate  to  point out  again and  again  that  there  can  be  only  one  winner  of  a  game or  cmpetition - including  horse racing...

 This implies  that in crude  term there  will  be  few  winners  and  many losers - any  game has  to  OBEY this  UNIVERSALLY TRUE LAW!....

Let  us  use  horse racing as  an  example....

Fact : most  of  the  punters  lose - few(?) may  be  wining...

Here  comes  the  % of  accuracy  in  betting...

Majority  of  punters  do  not  have  access  to  any  system. Under  the  misconception 'created' by  those  who live  by deception - that they must follow- the FIRST   choice  of  a  racebook , or the  moving  odds or the 'khabar' etc.

They will ALWAYS  LOSE  and FEED  those who  have by  hard  work  or OTHERWISE   have gained  access  to  the ' SYSTEM'   which has  enabled  them  to  survive ( a tanagential  remark)...

But  the  moot  point  is - accuracy  of  a  system ; rather  the  %  of  accuracy  of  a  system...

In  my  opinion  a  'system'  which  gives - 'BETTER  OR  MORE'  POSITIVE  ROI , even  by  being  30% accurate  is  SUPERIOR   to  the  one  who  gives  LESSOR  ROI  but  gives  80% accuracyI

Ofcourse  opinions differ - but  that  is  the  truth horse racing  PROVES!

@ Harsh, it takes guts to admit FAILURE openly. Handicapping is WASTE OF TIME ……………..in my opinion, it does have a role to play in winner finding although it is a limited one. By the way, did you account for ‘connections’ intentions’ in your system? Kolramsri’s post shows that although IRTWSRP uses more than 50 variables, the system is making a loss. It seems the million dollar question is how does one get around ‘intentions’?

We have discussed the role of the owners,One such person told me we buy  and  spend money for almost one year plus  to get some returns  and not the fancy of handicappers.

The role of trainers is also equally important 

MUM    pessi and sunderjee stand tall others are flash in the pan  down hill  trainer M narrudu.

Cal      Mcekwon  shafiq khan stand out Vijay sin gh the worst  almost 15 doosara s won in the last few months defying the handicapper and logic

BNG  Paddy Prassana kumer the note worthy ones.

Dhak jori trainers :Lagad and Jaiswal 

The worst thing any punter can do is CREDIT  betting. I have never done so inspite of many bookmakers  willing to  accept   in my case in Delhi.

Racing today has become a gambling sport a fact no one can deny so adopt accordinlgy to survive

@ Sun,

Welcome  after  a  long  absence...

I do  accept  your  3rd. point in toto but Idon't  agree with  your  1st. point of  making  a  cocktail of  astro-numero with handicapping because  I've  been  doing this  successfully and  getting  good  results. For  example  on 2/1/20 for  Mumbai races  for race  no  5  I posted in  the thread of  tips  on  this  forum as  follows:

5)   365 open race  favorite  will lose

In  my  quntitative  analysis all 3 were very closely handicapped and  therefore  I called  it  an  'open' race; but  astrological indication told  me  that  favorite  'can not' win and  therefore i made  above  'cocktail'  which  proved  correct! 

In  this  race  5, no.3  was  favorite,  6 was 20/1 and  5 was 10/1. The result was  6(20/1) won , 3(favorite) lost and  5  also  lost   

Many  times   based  only on   astro, I've  posted  - favorite  will/may lose and I'm correct about  80% or  little  more number of  times...

@ kolramsri,

Thanks for  the  patience shown and the  resolve  of  not  disturbing  me...

However, I'm  on my  way  to prove  that It  is possible  to  win by  betting on  ALL RACES   of  the  day. I've  already  gained 49 points by  betting  on  all  races  of  ONLY Bangalore  and  Mumbai over  last  fortnight (from  29/12/19  to  12/1/20) and  hope  to  achieve 100 points  by  the end  of  this   month. The  'closing' odds  at  Mumbai  as  published iin  Bol book may  be  taken  for  reference...

Stakes money offered by RWITC is poor. During Feb 2019 Auction sales of babies by Ex Art & Leitir Mor, price ranged from 20 lacs to 25 lacs. The investment will be a dead asset for 8 months, till the Mumbai season starts. In addition to the cost, owners have to bear BTF. Take it as 30,000 BTF ( for a month) inclusive of all. Under the present Stakes disbursing level(by RWITC) how it is possible to own a horse, and run fairly to the satisfaction of a punter who put 10 rupees for a place bet.

Till 4 years back arrangements among Owners and Trainerswas isolated to a Club they belong to. Now it is an All India Affair. You go soft in Bengaluru, I will reciprocate in Chennai or Mumbai. How the sharing arrangement will be known to a punter, who follows all methods of handicapping? So punters are condemned for life.

Interesting topic!!

Is it possible to develop a system which can GUARANTEE profits ? 

I tried to develop a system such that it picks 4 best handicapped horses in a race such that all top rated should place, at least half of the top rated should win and winners of all races should emerge from top 4

Tried it for last 2 years ,sometimes results were excellent and other time pretty ordinary but over all it was a FAILURE 

In last 20 years have tried all methods-Pen Paper handicapping,Speed Rating,Time form Ratings, Net ratings, Astrology, Merit odds-Race time odds and what not. All in the end result in LOSS 

Handicapping races is sheer WASTE OF TIME 

There was a pointed reference from crk about this post in another thread. While appreciating IRTWSRP SELECTIONS,crk claimed it as an excellent rating system and showing consistently good results. On verifying IRTWSRP selections, I find he has given 3 horses per race. Assuming a punter playing 10 rupees on all his selections, he will gain 15 rupees on Eleventh Jan Kolkatta, at the end of the day. For Mumbai Ninth Jan , Bengaluru Eleventh Jan, Kolkatta Twelfth Jan, his P&L shows a loss of rupees 30, rupees 73 and 106 respectively.

Most responses indicate that there are two factors which are beyond the punters' control  and they spoil the game - Intentions of connections and Luck of the race. My personal experience is that the latter does not affect the results too often so long as the intentions of the connections are positive. Most of the incidents like slow jump out, getting left, getting pocketed, giving a run, etc. are results of negative intentions. For all practical purposes, the factor 'luck' is almost ignorable if a punter can somehow capture the intentions correctly. The next step obviously is to see if we can find a definitive indicator of 'intentions'.

Btw, 'Horse Power' is not absolute but well quantified. The term horse power is said to have been thought of by the inventor James Watt as a marketing ploy. He wanted to sell his steam engine to those who were using horses for their work and for easy comparison between the two he coined the term Horse Power. 

It is annoying , rather  disturbing as  well as  surprising, that a  topic  or  subject of  utmost  importance  fails  to  elicit  any  response  from  so  called 'elite' race  writers ,free posters and  so  on...

We  the punters,  use  various  metrhods  to  find  a  winner and try  to  win  from  races. Going  for  fun  or  enjoyment  is a  stupid assertion which  is  self-deception....

 To win or  how  to  make  money  by  betting  on races is  the  aim  of  ALL  punters - excluding  self-deceptive morons....

To  find  a  system  which  enables  these  punters  to  make  money has/had been a ' MARICHIKA'   for  most  of  them  and  that  is  why  they  blame  that  - 'no  one  can  win  from  races'

But  few  or  some punters are winning and  will  continue to  win makes  many  losers  to pour their  irer  on  the  game  rather  on  their  inability  to 'understand' it....

Very intersting topic.Presently I am hard pressed for time and hence cannot actively participate in the discussion.However I would like to add few points from my side.

1.Making a cocktail of Handicapping based on some empirical formulae with Astrology& Numerology is a dangerous proposition.One shall have faith in one system however unscientific it may be.

2.The accuracy of the system does not improve by including number of parameters.For a long time I experimented with My Own Rating Versus Official Rating and met with some success but the drawback is Separation of 2 eqully Rated horses .Then I tried with Timing Analysis with only Penetrometer Correction.Yes this provided more clarity but Win percentage is not very different from 1/3 which can be achieved by any method.

3.My feeling is Quantifiable Analysis followed by Qualitative Analysis is the only Way Out.The Accuracy of the system improves based on experience and also the individual's Clarith of Thought.Some have clear thinking and confidence such people can apply the Qualfiable Parameters more effectively.

4.Many a times in this forum we come across Excellent Analysis of some important races but most of those revolve around Qualitative Parameters.I would have preferred a Quantitative Analysis.

5.On Horse Power Yes it is a measure of power.The name perhaps given because Horse is fastest dometicated animal.What ITR perhaps means is Can a horse produce same horse power in every race? If we calculate Horse power of Race Horses in India making 450Kg as Body Weight you can see that their Horse Power from Class 0 to 30 to Terms 4yu falls into distinct ranges.

Thanks

Chanakya.

I don't want to disturb you till the end of this month since you are already halfway through............

Hi friends, I am really overwhelmed by the sincere and spontaneous responses.

For this thread, I am keeping away from any discussion on whether one should pursue racing or not. I leave it to individual judgment. I am hoping to restrict the discussion to those who have made up their mind to go ahead with racing because all said and done racing does pose a challenge that tests one’s intellect, mental discipline, knowledge and understanding of the sport and the game, his innovation skills and some more. In addition, it provides a thrilling and captivating spectacle which is not provide by any other avenue of entertainment. 

In the seventies, times were radically different. There were no computers leave alone internet. Racing information was hard to come by. If I remember correctly, even race day reports were not published. If we did not attend the races, we would not come to know of the results till we read the next day’s newspaper. There was no closed circuit television. Race enthusiasts would eagerly scan the paper for the previous day’s track reports. The Hindu was considered as the holy publication as far as track reports were concerned. Only one racing book viz. Cole was available. You would know of the bookies’ morning odds only if you knew a bookie. Otherwise you would have no idea of the betting angle till you reached the race course. After many many years, the race clubs started the practice of displaying the opening odds on a board before the day’s program got under way. The scene was completely transformed with the advent of Information Technology. Today’s racegoer is the most empowered punter in the history of the game in terms of availability of information and what he can do with it. What took punters years to learn in the old times can be covered now within a matter of months. The variety of available data and the tools to juggle with it have expanded his possibilities dramatically. What seemed impossible in those days is no longer so. Punters and professionals are traditionally used to thinking in a certain way and despite the IT revolution they have continued to think the same way.

@ dr vijaya shankar……..I have not accepted but stated the inability of the systems that are widely used to effectively foretell the results.

@ Ajay Shah……Thanks. I used numerology and astrology some years ago in my quest to improve my system but found that they were not as definitive as I wanted. I used to write down the matrix of card numbers and draw numbers and also used planetary association of numbers to project the likely numbers that would win or hit the board.  

(To be continued)

@ kolramsri,

Your seemingly  non-controvercial  remarks make  me  wonder about  you! because  in  horse racing  we  have non-contovecial  objective  and  that  is  -TO WIN...

BY  THE  WAY  THIS  IS THE  ONLY  PLACE  WHERE  WE  CAN  SHOW OR  PROVE  OUR KNOWLEDGE, OR  MEDIOCRITY? 

Where  else  we  can  do  that?

I am  not  groping  in  the  dark - my postings  on  this  site  for  Bangalore  and  Mumbai, are  a  proof  of  my  claim. Whenever  you  find  time,  analyse  them and decide  whether  I'm  right  or  wrong...  

@ Heera,

all races  are  not 'madeup'... Analyse  and  try  to  to  select  those  which can not  or  could  not  be  'madeup'

@ all ,

Connections  can  never  fool a  handicapper, everytime, and intentionally losing  connections( characters)  can  be identified.....

ITR- again,

Mathematical  systems  NEVER  fail - if  that  was  true   aman  would  not  have  landed  on  moon... The inability  to use  mathematical rules results  in  the  failure  of  systems  used  by  punters....

@ golden  viper,

you have made  a point - enjoy  racing . Very  true  and  very  correct  for  most ( if  not  all) of  the punters.  But  there  are  some  greedy  ones - wo want  to  make  money from  racing. What  is  your  advice  to  them?

@ Indian Turf Record,

My question  is  - 'If  horses  are  not  machines' ;  then why   the   scientifically and  perhaps  intellectually most  advanced  country called  Britain in earlier  times,  accepted, used and  still using - 'horsepower'  as  the  unit  for  power  measurement? 

My own experience is as follows :

1) those who bet on all races CAN NEVER EVER be winners continuously.   They might win on a particular day or two, but lose a lot more during the next few days.

2) in india, there are various manipulative tactics at play, day in and day out.   Many trainers are crooks of the highest order, they can intentionally bring a class 3 horse down to the lowest class,  and then reel off 2 or 3 wins to make a complete mockery of racing.  They connive with the owners/jockeys to ensure that their wards do not run on merit when most fancied, and then land the spoils when least fancied, in the same/similar field/weights - absolutely no eyebrows raised or questions asked.

3) It is a fact that 90pct or more of race goers are losers.   Most of the remaining few who profess to winning may only be marginal winners, yet they will be boastful of their high winning stakes.  They are the ones who cheat others with their high level of fibbing, and therefore cheat themselves of their falsified claims.

4) finally, there will be a handful of race-goers (maybe hardly 1pct or so), who are perpetual winners.   They are really committed and disciplined punters.   They generally select a max of 2 races in a card, and back their picks with full conviction.   Odds-on favourites are totally avoided by them, and they either go with 2nd favourites or outsiders, who, according to their system, have good chances to deliver.   This way, even if 1 of their picks comes through every day, their  returns are very good.   Even in worst cases of only 1 winner every 2nd day, their capital, or small return, is secured.   

Alas, the 4th category of punters are in such miniscule minority, that it renders the whole of horse-racing, in India, a totally losing proposition, i.e., waste of time, effort and hard-earned money.

I don't want to pronounce anything nonexistent, because it is not visible to me. There may be some formula, adopted by someone to get maximum results. If at all there is a person who knows, this is the last place he will visit. We are all groping in the dark.

Good Luck to Chanakya.

@Glasgow Prince.

Along with other parameters what I have realized is the importance of Numbers. Pure numbers only of the horse number and draw numbers. This method really helps in safely eliminating certain horses while betting or vice versa. Numbers most of the time make patterns and jump in a pattern. We only look at the first 4 placings. Example. On Jan 5th I had mentioned horse number 4(brave) in 4rh race should place, either win or shp.why? Because in 5th race number 4(Dumas) was a good hot fav so the number 4 should be on board in the 4th race. It lost by a neck. Again today I have posted in the selections of Banglore play place number 2 in the 1st race. Same reason. No.2 in the second race is a good hot fav.so the number has to come in the first 2 places in the 1st race. This is one method  I go backwards to understand which number is likely to come. To go forward u need to just watch the first 2 races and see the numbers patterns and u will understand  the way numbers are behaving and then play according. Could elaborate furthur but not here.

@ GLASGOW  PRINCE,

The  clear  answer  to  your  last  question  is - YES.

I'm  going  to  prove  it before  the  end  of  this  month. I'm  already  halfway  through on  my  way  to  success...

All our handicapping and systems are fine but

The main person is the owner or his connections,if they feel like trying or give a run only.

Take MUM The owner of TR''VILLe is a big punter and clearly he did not try at those odds.

WE all assume the best horse will win but reality is different  as some times the horse may not be well

So if one gets even 50% winners one should be happy and go home.staying back   is  tempting to back with money in your pocket.

Please do not cmpare raciong in India with abroad it is the biggest blunder.

So enjoy racing with your limited resources .Forget the mr negatives,that racing is bad.it depends on you only

In all international races, they don't use whip. Whichever horse is whipped, he/she goes in front, because our indian horses are trained to speed up when whipped i.e., the horse uses it's energy  to jump forward, jockey also pushes the horse forward, reigns released to fullest extent. If not whipped, the horse uses it's energy to jump upward, jockey also moves his hands up and down, keeps the reigns shortened which makes lesser forward movement. In effect outcome in a race is decided by connections. After advent of 28%GST, the connections started grabbing double the money than what it used to be pre GST era. Now a days we have to watch races to find in which way the connections are going to cheat public, by slowing at the starting gates or not whipping or galloping up&down instead of forward etc., etc., So there are no mathematics in finding winning horse. But there is mathematics in winning at races. For example play favourite shp all the races with doubling the amount if you lose the previous one. 1st race 100 lost, 2nd race 200 lost, 3rd race 400 lost, suppose 4th race 800 shp success, play 5th race again 100 or go home. Another example play forecast by putting second favourite win and favourite second place. At least one race this works, play equal amount, if you lose entire day, double the amount next raceday.

I agree that the intention of the connections are important than any other parametres. We do not know the target race of the connections which is based on the field,distance and the conditon of the horse. So many times the stables enter more than one horse and we do not know which one to choose. King Solomon was favourite and stablemate Akina Speed Star won the race and King Soloman just made to finish 3rd. The King ran yesterday and @ 5/1 it won the race.

The key factor is connections intention,  sometimes hhorse might tick all right the but intentions are to just run, possibly to target a different race. 

@ Glasgow Prince

    The simple answer to your final question is "NO". Yes, there are people who claim such systems but they are found wanting in practice.

    There are some basic reasons why all mathematical systems fail. One. Such systems wrongly assume that horses are machines guided by laser beams and will produce a certain level of performance. Two, such sytems are concerned with micro calculations connectioned with false rails, gradients, penetrometer readings, weight differences and so on. They fail  -- and cannot -- to take into account much larger (quantitatively) variations like getting left at the start, not being suited going or pace, jockey losing his whip, getting pocketed , saddle slipping, losing a shoe, interference, which are all fairly frequent racing incidents.

    Racing, as restricted to what happens on the track, is a sport and all sports are subject happenings which are beyond realms of calculations and predictions. Could anyone have imagined that Don Bradman would be bowled for a second ball duck in his final Test innings by a an obscure leg spinner called Eric Hollies ? Or, that the same Bradman would be dismissed by twice in the same match by a rookie left arm spinner called Malcolm Hilton ?

@dr vijaya shankar,

I fully agree with you about astro-numerological prediction. In-addition, one can practice another system called "look for the clue" in the title of race. In a race day one can get atleast two winners. I mean winners may be Win or SHP or THP were high return is expected. When you apply this method never touch or look at past performance. To show some example: King Solomon a person name matches to the title "V.H.Adwalia". Tokyo Rose (clue Place)placed in Kolar(place) plate. so on..

The elusive factor is a mixture of the intent of the connection, luck while the race is actually run besides unexpected improvements or otherwise while the race is happening actually.

Dr. Vijaya Shankar pl share numerology factor in a separate thread.

@ Glasgow Prince,

You have raised a very interesting issue. Profwessional and novice handicappers, worldover, try to develope a system or a method to find the eventual winner of a race. Few of them succeed - most of them fail. The succesful handicapper'ssystem uses some or many of the parameters you have mentionedbut it is impossible to quantify all of them except few. The success of the system will depend on the correct grasp or the correct valuation of the parameters used in the formation of the system. It is difficult to quantify the success of the system in terms of accuracy - but i feel that if a system gives positive returns over a period, it can be termed an accurate system or method....

Some time back a punter - smart- still -poor- punter raised the issue through athread on this forum that it is not possible to win from races and he has given up punting. In that thread I've said that it is possible to win and I'll prove it. His system was not accurate or good or may have some faults....

I was out of country and came back on 27/12/19 and started posting my selections from 29/12/19 for Mumbai and Bangalore centers only.As said earlier, it is not possible to incorporate all or many parameters,mentioned by you, to design a mathematically accurate system but it is possible to create a reasonably successful system giving positive returnsregularly; which I consider is an accurate system...

The parameters I use is speed , PNR values, Weight, current form in a quantifiable number and then evaluate the chances of the runners. I may give 3 numbers but the first number is the best in my calculations. Many times I find all the 3 choices are very closely handicapped - then I treat it as an 'open' race and place my equal bet on all the 3 runners!

I've been consistently getting positive returns as can be checked from my postings on Mumbai and Bangalore races on this forum ; confirming the 'accuracy' or the usefulness or the correctness of the handicapping system ...

You are right...I tried different calculations to get the results, but I get only 50-60% strike rate. Only 40% horses runs on there actual speed or form..rest all are unpredictable/non confident  horses...Here why punters loss a lot and horses which are in good speed as lesser odds.... When punters loose they cannot recover there losses.

It's a made up game under turf clubs rules...Many punters spoiled there life... punters who have connections with trainer , jockeys and owner will be profitable...Rest all are Bakaraas.

Request everyone not to introduce this game to anyone in society.

respected sir 

i am glad that you accepted current systems inability to foretell  the results. what i feel is these systems totally ignore the luck factor.ahorse has got to run with agram of luck besides its handicap or ace jockey.  An attempt could be made to fuse these two dimensions i e physical data and the metaphysical inputs like numerological and astrological PREDICTIONS.i can share my numerological system.thank you