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By Raghavan | 29-Jan-2020A good number of racing experts & betting experts have written about the betting strategies. Looks sensible write ups.
For winning in races one needs skill. This point many people agree. Without skill & knowledge if a punter enter the racingworld, in all probability he will be bankrupt within 6 months.
What is skill? To me the five main parameers which a punter goes through is (1) past perfornance, (2) track work, (3) distance suitability , (4) jockey's competence. & (5) odds.
Another dubious way of selections is by khabar or inside information. Nowadays results are so frustrating that a punter desperately relies on inside information more than he relies on the 5 points I mentioned.
There are some tote bettors who bet on a horse that is showing 800 to 1200 for a tenner. But let us not worry about them. They bet maximum 50/-. And once in six months/nine months they also cash their tickets.
There may be other parameters that are equally applicable. But my idea of this post is not to talk about the skill but of cutting losses. In any case, the punter normally concentrates on these five aspects before tendering money to the bookies.
Suppose a punter selects horse X as the most probable winner. Among the aspects that I mentioned, it will pass test in four. But odds? The bookie opens the odds on X at 8/1. In less than 5 minutes, the odds further eases to 15/1. Will a punter bets on that?
Let me put that question to myself. Will I bet? My answer is a resounding NO.
I prefer to bet a horse provided it is favorite or a 2nd favorite. Even if it is 3rd favorite or 4th favorite at odds of 5/1 or less I may consider. But I definitely will not bet on horses that are quoted 8/1, 10/1, 15/1.
Why? Is there any rule that horses offered at such odds should not win? No. There is no such rule. If a horse has got merit, and if there is a competent & good jockey riding that horse, then the horse can win at 20/1, 30/1 also. But, I am talking about myself. (Presently I do not bet for win/place, but consider I am talking about my thoughts 3 years back).
I suggest punters to keep a betting bank. At least two lakh. And bet to the extent of maximum 1% or 2% of that bank per horse.
So, let us say you bet 2200/- per horse. Your three bets for day one. All gone. Do not panic. The fact that you have betting back should be reassuring to you. Say in 10 days you had 30 bets, out of which you are correct only in 6 cases.. The dividends you receive on those 6 bets shuold be at least 25k to 30k. That means you should never bet 50ps, 60ps & 70ps horses.
In 20 days, you would have bet 60 horses and only 12 wins. Your bet amount is 1,32,000 & dividends are around 50 to 60k. So the "bank" balance reduced to around 1.20 lakhs. Never bother. Continue.
The bank balance get reduced to 1 lakh. Here be defensive. Continue betting, but let the bet size be 1100. Bad luck. Balance got still down. 50,000/-. Now stop your betting with bookies. Instead bet 500/- at tote.
There is no shame in betting low. Even though totes offer less dividend, it is better to bet at tote. You have no cash to bet with bookies. If the balance drops to 20k, then bet 200/- only.
The thumb rule is, you should not run out of cash. The bank should be only for purpose of betting. For all incidentals (book, entry fee, snacks, auto), you should be having extra money in your pocket.
I have so far spoken about losses and losses. Why? Because, I firmly believe that you can not beat the bookies. And that is universal truth. You may be Physics professor, successful businessman. But such status will never come to your rescue in race course. In race course you are only a "punter". People who claim themselves to be the masters are cheating themselves and will take you also on royal ride. These masters can always give several excuses for tips that have flopped. The most common excuse is "jockey has eaten".
You definitely will have winners. Two or three times in a month. But, one thing that I noticed is it is only on such days that majority of punters play "sensibly"! That is minimum. You will be having 20k in your pocket. But, your bet will be maximum 5k. Whereas on losers, your bets will be 8k or 10k. NO ONE BETS ENOUGH ON A WINNER.
There are some people who I think are having moles in their private parts. Whatever they bet, at whatever odds, the horse finishes exactly there & they get dividend. If they bet shp, the horse whether it is 30ps or 30/1 finishes 2nd only. If they bet thp, the horse finishes 3rd only. And, their strike rate is 40% to 60%. And in all probability, their knowledge is not even 1/10th of yours. If you are one such lucky guys, this post is not applicable to you. And, also if you are a bettor with superior knowledge and skill, and you are winning money consistently, then also this post is not for you.
Suppose the trend is not as scary as I have forecasted. Suppose you win 25 bets out of 60. And your bank balance increases to 2.5 lakhs. Should you revise your betting volume to 3300? No. You wait at least till your bank grows to 4 lakhs and then increase the bets to 4400.
So, I have spoken about those whose betting bank is 2 lakhs. What if they are financially strong and have "bank" of 5 lakhs. Certainly, you can go for 5k bet. But my suggestion. Bet at the rate of 2200 only...OR..if you are more bold, then bet 3300.
This post is only about cutting losses. I have spoken about this briefly earlier also. Of late, I am seeing some outrageously stupid posts in this site.
People say I am a loser and I deem all punters as losers. I hate to brag about myself. I was reasonably good punter in zamana. When jockeys Aslam Kader, Shroff & M Narredu were dictating terms. I was a decent performer in the PTR games. I was co ordinator for the PTR games for about 3/4 years. And in a contest sponsored by Indiarace (6/7 years back), I have won 2000/- (finished 7th out of 200). But, I have lost. And, at the current gst, I have completely stopped playing for win/place. Anybody, who claim themselves to be better than I am, should give proof of their winnings in the PTR games or Indiarace sponsored contest. Their tips, wins and wins are all nothing but pure "bakwas".