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How To Cut Losses

By Raghavan | 29-Jan-2020

A good number of racing experts & betting experts have written about the betting strategies.  Looks sensible write ups.

For winning in races one needs skill.  This point many people agree.  Without skill & knowledge if a punter enter the racingworld, in all probability he will be bankrupt within 6 months.  

What is skill?  To me the five main parameers which a punter goes through is (1) past perfornance, (2) track work,   (3) distance suitability , (4) jockey's competence. & (5) odds.

Another dubious way of selections is by khabar or inside information.  Nowadays  results are so frustrating that a punter desperately relies on inside information more than he relies on the 5 points I mentioned.

There are some tote bettors who bet on a horse that is showing 800 to 1200 for a tenner.  But let us not worry about them.  They bet maximum 50/-.  And once in six months/nine months they also cash their tickets.

There may be other parameters that are equally applicable.  But my idea of this post is not to talk about the skill but of cutting losses.  In any case, the punter normally concentrates on these five aspects before tendering money to the bookies.

Suppose a punter selects horse X as the most probable winner.  Among the aspects that I mentioned, it will pass test in four.  But odds? The bookie opens the odds on X at 8/1.  In less than 5 minutes, the odds further eases to 15/1.  Will a punter bets on that? 

Let me put that question to myself. Will I bet?  My answer is a resounding NO.  

I prefer to bet a horse provided it is favorite or a 2nd favorite.  Even if it is 3rd favorite or 4th favorite at odds of 5/1 or less I may consider.  But I definitely will not bet on horses that are quoted 8/1, 10/1, 15/1.

Why?  Is there any rule that horses offered at such odds should not win?  No.  There is no such rule.  If a horse has got merit, and if there is a competent & good jockey riding that horse, then the horse can win at 20/1, 30/1 also.  But, I am talking about myself.  (Presently I do not bet for win/place, but consider I am talking about my thoughts 3 years back).

I suggest punters to keep a betting bank.  At least two lakh.  And bet to the extent of maximum 1% or 2% of that bank per horse.  

So, let us say you bet 2200/- per horse.  Your three bets for day one.  All gone.  Do not panic.  The fact that you have betting back should be reassuring to you.  Say in 10 days you had 30 bets, out of which you are correct only in 6 cases..  The dividends you receive on those 6 bets shuold be at least 25k to 30k.  That means you should never bet 50ps, 60ps & 70ps horses.

In 20 days, you would have bet 60 horses and only 12 wins.  Your bet amount is 1,32,000 & dividends are around 50 to 60k.  So the "bank" balance reduced to around 1.20 lakhs.  Never bother.  Continue.

The bank balance get reduced to 1 lakh.  Here be defensive.  Continue betting, but let the bet size be 1100.  Bad luck.  Balance got still down.  50,000/-.  Now stop your betting with bookies.  Instead bet 500/- at tote.

There is no shame in betting low.   Even though totes offer less dividend, it is better to bet at tote.  You have no cash to bet with bookies.  If the balance drops to 20k, then bet 200/- only.  

The thumb rule is, you should not run out of cash.  The bank should be only for purpose of betting.  For all incidentals (book, entry fee, snacks, auto), you should be having extra money in your pocket.

I have so far spoken about losses and losses.  Why?  Because, I firmly believe that you can not beat the bookies.  And that is universal truth.  You may be Physics professor, successful businessman.  But such status will never come to your rescue in race course.   In race course you are only a "punter".   People who claim themselves to be the masters are cheating themselves and will take you also on royal ride.  These masters can always give several excuses for tips that have flopped.  The most common excuse is "jockey has eaten".

You definitely will have winners.  Two or three times in a month.  But, one thing that I noticed is it is only on such days that majority of punters play "sensibly"!   That is minimum.  You will be having 20k in your pocket.  But, your bet will be maximum 5k.  Whereas on losers, your bets will be 8k or 10k.  NO ONE BETS ENOUGH ON A WINNER.

There are some people who I think are having moles in their private parts.  Whatever they bet, at whatever odds, the horse finishes exactly there & they get dividend.  If they bet shp, the horse whether it is 30ps or 30/1 finishes 2nd only.  If they bet thp, the horse finishes 3rd only.  And, their strike rate is 40% to 60%.  And in all probability, their knowledge is not even 1/10th of yours.  If you are one such lucky guys, this post is not applicable to you.  And, also if you are a bettor with superior knowledge and skill, and you are winning money consistently, then also this post is not for you.

Suppose the trend is not as scary as I have forecasted.  Suppose you win 25 bets out of 60.  And your bank balance increases to 2.5 lakhs.  Should you revise your betting volume to 3300?  No.  You wait at least till your bank grows to 4 lakhs and then increase the bets to 4400.  

So, I have spoken about those whose betting bank is 2 lakhs.  What if they are financially strong and have "bank" of 5 lakhs.  Certainly, you can go for 5k bet.  But my suggestion.  Bet at the rate of 2200 only...OR..if you are more bold, then bet 3300.

This post is only about cutting losses.  I have spoken about this briefly earlier also.  Of late, I am seeing some outrageously stupid posts in this site.  

People say I am a loser and I deem all punters as losers.  I hate to brag about myself.  I was reasonably good punter in zamana.  When jockeys Aslam Kader, Shroff & M Narredu were dictating terms.  I was a decent performer in the PTR games.  I was co ordinator for the PTR games for about 3/4 years.  And in a contest sponsored by Indiarace (6/7 years back), I have won 2000/- (finished 7th out of 200).  But, I have lost.  And, at the current gst, I have completely stopped playing for win/place.  Anybody, who claim themselves to be better than I am, should give proof of their winnings in the PTR games or Indiarace sponsored contest.  Their tips, wins and wins are all nothing but pure "bakwas".  

Post Your reply

11 Replies

Raghavan said ...

31-Jan-2020

Simhan,

May be what you are saying is a proposal worth trying with bets 100/200 etc subject to max 800.  

You are speaking 2000/4000 etc;  I have no interest in trying such misadventure.  In any case, the subject matter is how to cut losses?  Not about winning.  I have mentioned that you can increase the bets from 2200 to 4400, provided your balance increases to 4 lakhs from starting 2 lakhs.

Vinay Gowda,

Amjad Khan expired in 1992.  More than 27 years ago.  Still remembering his punch dialogue?  Well.  I prefer to be among people who are afraid.  You are bold,  dynamic.  You pursue the path that you consider the best.

I have given one method to cut losses.  You have different idea.  If you are inclined to, spell out that approach.  OR follow the idea that you think more feasible/practicable & viable.  But, do not invite me to any contest.  I have already participated in contests for sufficient number of years.  It is time for youngsters to take part in the contest/s.

Simhan said ...

30-Jan-2020

@ Ragavan,

Still Akshay Kumar is best in Hyd as well as outside Hyd.

My suggestion  and probable winning

Strategy for 2 lac investment as Racing Business.

Vinay.gowda said ...

30-Jan-2020

Sir,

So much of contradictory in your statements. I rest my case.

Anybody, who claim themselves to be better than I am, should give proof of their winnings in the PTR games or Indiarace sponsored contest.  Their tips, wins and wins are all nothing but pure "bakwas".

Tips should be with the idea of helping a fellow punter.  It should not be with the idea of proving or disproving something to someone. 

 "Jo dargaya samjho margaya"

Raghavan said ...

30-Jan-2020

Simhan,

Any approach as long as it fetches money is good.  Doubling the bets after every loss is an old formula.  However, even big jockeys may go winless in 15, 20 or 30 races.  In that case, your idea comes a cropper.

In any case, my post is only about cutting loss.   If one follows what I have written, with 2 lakhs, I think one may be having some 15k to 20k ...even after 6 months.  I am asking the punters to increase the bet size to 4400 only after converting 2 lakhs to 4 lakhs.

Wild card entry,

Exacta & trinella are tough pools.  I am finding it difficult to win even 15 bets out of 100 attempts.

Joker,

You are objecting to my self praise.  You certainly deserve grand applause for locating "self praise" in my post.  Anyway, will be pleased to know how many self praises I have posted during the last one year.  

But what have you said about yourself?  You are tom toming about increased "skill"!   I think that is nothing but self praise.

Of course, your name is joker.  But, there is no need to indulge in buffoonery every time.

Vinay Gadwal,

I am not throwing any challenge; so question of your acceptance does not arise.  I do not see anybody's tip. 

If you want to tip, you can do with pleasure.  At your convnience.  Of course some one may be interested in your tip.  So, for their benefit please ensure that your tips are published at least 2 hours before the start of 1st race.

Tips should be with the idea of helping a fellow punter.  It should not be with the idea of proving or disproving something to someone.  

You say it is a straight fight.  Well.  I am not interested in any fight.

 

Simhan said ...

29-Jan-2020

@ Ragavan, with 2 Lacks banking play only Akshay Kumar 2k, 4k,6K,8k&10k win & Pls only.ROI will be doubled.

But all punters want THRILL, patience & Preservance will fly away.

My observation!!!

Ayaz said ...

29-Jan-2020

Just do the opposite guys if you want to success in this racing world. Instead of betting start laying the fav and second fav.

Wild Card Entry said ...

29-Jan-2020

A smart punter will try with exacta, trinilla FC and quin. 

Where one can earn decent amount if it clicks instead of betting big amount on tote and bookies favourite. 

Kingsfork said ...

29-Jan-2020

Why you keep entertaining punters who are hoping to become trillionaire in the horse racehorse gambling!!! as like some of our leader ____. instead why you do not suggest punters spend some quality time on HT race exams?.

The Joker said ...

29-Jan-2020

Hi Vinay

Agree with you.

Raghavanji how much times will you post your self praise here.

The contests here are a matter of skill.

Many ppl take part here not for prizes but a will to do good, do u understand how tough it is to pick the Jp.

Or score a double.

I bet in lieu of ur Tanaka,quinella,forecast u have forgotten that win n place is the foundation of any bet in racing.

No doubt you love to target people.

We all started with win place n then graduated.

I remember 2000, when me with some pals at LnT Powai stepped into the Mahalaxmi when the great Smart Chieftan swept all.  I had a majestic 1000 rs in my pocket being part of the salary of a 22 yo newly graduated engineer was a big sum then n played a regal 500 rs on smart chieftan n watched the 500 nearly washed away.

Since then I've won n lost lots.

But one thing my skill increased in the last 19 years.

But there are those who still dont change.

I've watched u over the years since Swamybabus n Studboys selections in the formative years of Horsetalk.

Thing is I've not changed.

Many idiots like sadeli tip hv come n gone but I've gone from super intelligent to melanchous.

I really pity u sir...

Cheers

The Joker

 

 

 

Vinay.gowda said ...

29-Jan-2020

Ok Raghavan sir, I accept your challenge. But will not participate in any contest or game. I will post my choice in selection thread, don't ask me to post in morning or before 10am. Have worked very hard for this and it should benefit only me. straight fight between you and me.

1. Duration - 6 months.

2. Only win IR dividends considered.

3. Minimum 30 bets.

4. Returns minimum 50%.

Prize -will ask you to write just one sentence here.

Godzy baba (Tintin) don't quit, Tough times never lasts but tough people do. GG(lay bets), Bengaluru cruise(Don Corleone),BKD(consistent player). Hope all are doing fine have a great year. Belated new year wishes to all.

Thanks

Vinay (winner).

N.balraj said ...

29-Jan-2020
  1. Raghavan,very useful informations.Let me try.