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"to Bet Or Not" : Most Punters Don't Think Of This Strategy?

By Smart-still-poor-punter | 10-Feb-2020

Hi Friends,

     One major problem that a majority of punters encounter inside the betting ring is : "To bet or not to bet"?

     Unfortunately, not many people really give a serious thinking to it and just go ahead betting a horse - their fancied horse - once the odds are displayed. Why so? 

     For example, let's take yesterday race won by "Iron Age". As pipping hot favourite, it offered around half-money or a little above that as opening and closing odds. There were several punters who waged 'heavy' bets on the animal and won. But what if the favourite had not won? "You can't ask these questions in racing", opine many. 

     On the other hand, you expect a horse to be in betting pattern say up to 5/1 but go mad seeing the price at 10/1 or above. What many punters do in such a situation? They just ignore the horse and start concentrating on the probable winners, isn't it?

     It is this "betting strategy" that often fails a large number of punters in racing. Then, when to decide "to bet or not"? Is it necessary to take into account the animal's paddock looks also before finalising a bet? 

     I remember many races where the favourite will be 10 to 4 on and rest of the horses at 10/1 and above. Still, the favourite loses? How and why?

     It is of utmost importance to follow a single strategy while betting like if you strongly fancy a horse before entering the course, you must not change it even if the so-called heavenly Gods come down and tell you. Even if a horse doesn't look quite impressive in the paddock, it goes on to win the race as it wants, isn't it? And in case the horse is really not fit, in most cases the veterinary certifies it "unfit for racing" before stalled.

     Only because "War Hammer" opened at 3/1 and went up to 33/10, not many punters who firmly fancied the horse did not invest their money. But the intelligent ones did cash in on the situation, much to their delight and very much to their supreme confidence.

     Odds do matter in some races where a previous night 20/1 horse is made the favourite (I recall H J Antia's days) blindly and he or she goes on to win without dropping a sweat. Those are exceptions. Once you fancy a horse and decide to go by it, you must not alter your decision thereafter, particularly once the odds open. Strangely, 75% of the punters weigh their options based on the odds. And that's what actually works to the advantage of the bookies.

     

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10 Replies

Chanakya Kaushik said ...

13-Feb-2020

@sspp,

You are right in stressing  the point that  a punter must  not stop betting  or change  his  selection if  the  odds  of  his  choice goes up. To win  from racing a  punter has  to  develope handicapping  'skill' and  device  a  'betting  strategy' to  get  a  positive ROI. If  these  2 'parameters' of  racing  are mastered  a punter  can  win  regularly  from  racing by  betting  on  2 or 3 races  or  all  the  races  of  the day - even may  sustain  his  livelihood!

To  prove  my  point, for  next  15  days  till Invitation  week, I'll  post  my  choice  in  the  tips  thread  of  this  forum  and  hope  to win Rs. 25,000 during  this  period by  bettinng @ Rs.2000 on  every  race.

Finally, handicapping  skill and  betting  strategy are  the  key to  make  money  from  racing... 

Smart-still-poor-punter said ...

12-Feb-2020

Hi Friends, Quite surprisingly, I came across a couple of posts here raising strong suspicion over my conduct. Only because I keep writing about racing, where I had a lot of passion as a journalist for close to 20 years, these HT friends doubt my credentials, to the extent that they feel if I am speaking lies. One person (Dynamite) even accused me of visiting race course regularly as he wanted to know how otherwise I knew 'War Hammer' was offered at 3/1 opening odds and the same drifted to 33/10? Come on, all these inputs were taken by me from writers like you who commented under different topics here soon after the Derby race. I have only one tongue and even that doesn't twist. Why should I lie to my friends here? If you people are really getting upset or irritated by me, please tell that so that I get out of HT forever. Casting aspersions on others is a cheap tactic and you will feel the pain only when others do it against you. Thank you

Raghavendra. said ...

12-Feb-2020

Someone is more punctual and attentive than the regular punter.. lolz

Anilxk said ...

12-Feb-2020

Dear SSPP,

You picked a nice subject...but...my comment is very simple 

a brahmachari must clean his mind and thought's , if he dream's sherdil chopra he is not at all brahmachari....you seriously thinking about racing ...nice 

Any said ...

12-Feb-2020

Dear SSPP,

I always love to read your topic...

finaly I found that still you are coming in course may be not every day but deffenetly selected day you are going to visit course, you didnt stop yourself.....You have passion about this game.....thats why you are always posting somethings and you reading, replyed to other. 

Its happen in racing whether 'BET OR TO BE NOT BET' its all about confidence... Its always happen with me also.. but before entering into the race course my selection has final and i always used to played that selected horses only doesn't matter what's Odds or field or paddock..... 

 

Dancing Dynamite said ...

12-Feb-2020

@ SSPP, How do you know that war hammer opened at 3/1 but went upto 33/10? It raises a serious doubt that you left racing.  And plz. dont say that you saw it on some betting website.  Becuause website odds are far less and what you are telling is ring prices.  On second thought, now you would say that your friend told you. Lol

Chase said ...

11-Feb-2020

Very much relevant. 

I remember the advice of a senior in Madras Race Club ( you can see very many seniors in MRC whiling the time, not betting but liberal with Gyan). 

He admonished me to not look at the odds but concentrate on picking the winner.

Once you are firm about your selection , then look at the odds to decide to bet or not. 

I still remembers the advise.

Ayarnet said ...

11-Feb-2020

Dear SSPP

Thanks  for your suggestion. I am really surprised that these suggestions comes from a person who have left Racing altogether. 

My experience you should not do any calculation or taking decision at the COURSE. Do every thing at Home only select your Horse and dont change it   Book makers always mislad the punters It is their job  to survive. We have to realise it. 

My suggestion is best way to follow frquently winning jockey like Suraj Nareddu or Sandhesh  or Trainer Suleiman Attaullah etc. Even if your horse fails also no problem because they are will win soon or later. This is practically working for me  my loss in Races are very negligible by this method

Best Regards to all

ayyarnet

 

N.balraj said ...

11-Feb-2020

Very useful information. We all did the same mistake several times and lost. Let's change 

Suman Deep said ...

11-Feb-2020

@sspp nice write up i did the same mistake yesterday hyd 6th race number 8 strategist and number 3 horse soviet pride i was fancied strategist second favrt all along and also RH S TRAINER was not won apart one favrt race in few days hyd , so this is one horse race for me but after he won 1 and 3 races and laxman sing double horse 11 best in show becomes a favrt on 6th race i blindly played 11 like its a favrt but 8 won  5 1/2 odds i was so pissed off about it , we people change on fearing loosing money so be stick with your horses