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Back to listsSelections Under Horse Racing System 29/2/20
By Dharmesh | 28-Feb-2020
My selections under Horse racing system.
Race 1 SHERWIN
Favourites in big fields
Rules:
Each day, select the non-handicap race with the most runners.
In each qualifying race, bet the pre-post favourite to win.
If there are two or more qualifying races, there is no bet.
Once the qualifying bet is published it will stand regardless of any late non-runners, either in the same race or any other.
Logic:
There is an old saying: "the bigger the field the better the favourite" and, as in all old proverbs, there is an element of substance to it - this trial will hopefully prove just how much.
Races with more runners tend to be truly-run affairs as opposed to those with small fields, which often provide no early pace and no cover for the runners that need it.
Races with big fields are also much less competitive, on many occasions, than they first appear. They often contain many runners that have no realistic chance of winning. That applies much more so to non-handicap events, on which the system is based.
Race 2 VALEGRO
Beaten favourites after a rest
Rules:
Bet any horse that was a beaten favourite in its last race, provided that it has a had a break of 30 days since then, and also provided that it has previously won over today's distance.
Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
Logic:
Having been expected to win on its last outing, but failing to do so, a horse that may not have given its true running has now been rested with a view to gaining compensation in a carefully chosen and suitable event, and when fit and ready to do so.
This is often a more suitable strategy than rushing a horse into attempting to gain quick compensation when conditions may not be ideal.
The qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also ensuring that today's trip is suitable.
Race 5 LION
Unbeaten horses
Rules:
1. Bet to win on any horse that has never been beaten in any race.
2. Unraced horses are ignored.
3. If there are two or more qualifiers in a race, there is no bet for that race.
Logic:
It is never easy to assess the full potential of a horse that is yet to be beaten. The aim of this trial is to discover whether punters tend to underestimate these horses.
Race 7 SACRED ROMAN
Last year's winner
Rules:
Bet any horse that won the same race last year.
Logic:
The most conclusive proof that a horse is suited by the conditions of a race lies in the fact that it won the same event last year.
Given that there may be certain variances the second time around, such as ground conditions, draw and jockey, but the horse has already shown a definite suitability to the three most important considerations: class, track, and distance.
Horses that won a race the previous year are often trained specifically with the same race in mind the following season.
Due to paucity of time could not give detail analysis of each selections.
Good Luck