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Selections Under Horse Racing System 29/2/20

By Dharmesh | 28-Feb-2020


My selections under Horse racing system. 

Race 1 SHERWIN 

Favourites in big fields

Rules:

Each day, select the non-handicap race with the most runners.

In each qualifying race, bet the pre-post favourite to win.

If there are two or more qualifying races, there is no bet.

Once the qualifying bet is published it will stand regardless of any late non-runners, either in the same race or any other.

Logic:

There is an old saying: "the bigger the field the better the favourite" and, as in all old proverbs, there is an element of substance to it - this trial will hopefully prove just how much.

Races with more runners tend to be truly-run affairs as opposed to those with small fields, which often provide no early pace and no cover for the runners that need it.

Races with big fields are also much less competitive, on many occasions, than they first appear. They often contain many runners that have no realistic chance of winning. That applies much more so to non-handicap events, on which the system is based.

Race 2 VALEGRO 

Beaten favourites after a rest

Rules:

Bet any horse that was a beaten favourite in its last race, provided that it has a had a break of 30 days since then, and also provided that it has previously won over today's distance.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:

Having been expected to win on its last outing, but failing to do so, a horse that may not have given its true running has now been rested with a view to gaining compensation in a carefully chosen and suitable event, and  when fit and ready to do so.

This is often a more suitable strategy than rushing a horse into attempting to gain quick compensation when conditions may not be ideal.

The qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also ensuring that today's trip is suitable. 

Race 5 LION 

Unbeaten horses

Rules:

1. Bet to win on any horse that has never been beaten in any race.

2. Unraced horses are ignored.

3. If there are two or more qualifiers in a race, there is no bet for that race.

Logic:

It is never easy to assess the full potential of a horse that is yet to be beaten. The aim of this trial is to discover whether punters tend to underestimate these horses. 

Race 7 SACRED ROMAN 

Last year's winner

Rules:

Bet any horse that won the same race last year.

Logic:

The most conclusive proof that a horse is suited by the conditions of a race lies in the fact that it won the same event last year.

Given that there may be certain variances the second time around, such as ground conditions, draw and jockey, but the horse has already shown a definite suitability to the three most important considerations: class, track, and distance.

Horses that won a race the previous year are often trained specifically with the same race in mind the following season. 

Due to paucity of time could not give detail analysis of each selections. 

Good Luck 

Post Your reply

10 Replies

Venu said ...

29-Feb-2020

Dharmeshji @ please keep trying.  don't get disheartened. One day  you will succeed.  

Dj Shankzz said ...

29-Feb-2020

LONG FIELD DAY PLAY SAFE ??

1-4 

2-2

3-3

4-5

5-14

6-8

7-1 / 5 Upset

8 - 2-3 Win / 10 Place 

DJ SHANKZZ.•°

Munnawar said ...

29-Feb-2020

We'll said Dharmesh ji

Golden Viper said ...

29-Feb-2020

I fully agree with Sherwin ,will hack the field

Velagro looks tough beacuse  it has been assumed that  the jockey pulled the horse, Pessi   as an after thought also  lodged a complaint, Bernadini Courage and  Cerese Noir should fight it out.

Sacred roman subjected to good prepartion can win

Bkd said ...

29-Feb-2020

After a long time Dharmeshji...yet timely, undoubtedly.

I had just a small query in relation to your choices...and that is... in all your selected races. you have identified the likely winner, based on a proven hypothesis, which you perceive to be the most appropriate for that particular race.  Fair enough!

My question is.....In these chosen races, is it also possible to make a winning case for any other horse, perhaps, pursuing a different concept, albeit under the overall system?  

All this..... because, I have a slightly different viewpoint....although most of your selections have very good chances.

For instance, I fancy RUBIK STAR in preference to Sherwin, due to its past run with an extraordinary horse..Forest Flame. Can this affect your choice?

Similarly, your choice Valegro has been a subject of controversy recently, and therefore might not give off its best. I prefer CERISE NOIR due to its preparation. 

Rest, I am unable to continue as I have to rush out now.

Best of luck to you and everyone else.

Gamble responsibly. When the fun stops. Stop.

Regards,

BKD

Munnawar said ...

29-Feb-2020

Well said

R.ramesh said ...

29-Feb-2020

Dharmesh sir, you need not tip all the races. Give your top 3 best bets of the day. Day's best and double. Make it very crisp.

Lucky Laxman said ...

29-Feb-2020

@DHARMESH JI, Well said... Since tomorrow's card seems to be very tough, request you to please spare some more time and post your selections.. 

Regards

Laxman

Kingsfork said ...

29-Feb-2020

Great job.

Againstodds said ...

29-Feb-2020

Nice analysis @ Dharmesh sir