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"invitation Weekend Races Serve As Eye Opener”

By Smart-still-poor-punter | 01-Mar-2020

Hi Friends,

     The manner in which races produced results during the Invitation Cup weekend prompts me to present this post. 

     It's usually on big days like these that a majority of punters believe that 'fair' racing will be witnessed and therefore there is a little more opportunity for them to make money. 

     I went through the two-day card that had on offer a total of 16 races. I took note of the odds as given here. There were only two clear favourites ('Sherwin' and 'Lagopus') and both came on Day 1 which means Sunday was a 'catch me if you can' day between bookies and punters?

     I know more than 50% (somewhere between 60 to 70%) of punters play only favourites, while another 20-25% try their luck on second and third favourites. Even going by that theory, eight races during the weekend were won by horses which quoted 8/1 and above. This gives a clear indication that only some 5-10% (I am afraid if I am quoting a higher percentage again?) would have made money during Invitation racing. Am I right?

     Now, coming to those punters, who remain selective. Of the most fancied four races during the two days, the Sprinters' Cup went 10/1 whereas Stayers gave around 5/1. Same was the case with 'Trafalgar' (8/1) and Adjudicate (5/1). Importantly, in all these four prime races, favourites failed to oblige.

     Now, every punter would have entered the race courses across the country with a very positive "I will win" frame of 'Ayyarnet' mind but the net result looks like 8 or 9 out of every 10 race-goer went home disappointed, if not pocket full of holes. Even those who made around Rs.50,000 during Kolkata races might have handed over the same (with little more from hand?) to the bookies during these 2 days.

     What all these go to point?

     If there's anybody making a living by gambling on horses it's only Bookies and not punters. Despite complete commitment shown by many seasoned punters, the results went just the opposite way. Why? It's just because a majority of race-goers overestimate the likelihood of 'outside' horses winning and underestimate the likelihood of favourites losing. Again, it's this 'bias' that helps the bookies on important race days like Feb.29 and Mar.1 and also all through the year.

     I experienced it all for close to 25 years and only after fully getting convinced decided to call it quits (not after losing peti after peti like some loose nuts cried here). One great punter personality, who was initially criticising me for preaching 'stop racing' mantra, recently decided to give it up altogether. Who's the beneficiary? Only he.

     There's nothing called 'reducing' your bets. It never happens. Why punters are 'allowed' to win here and there is simply because otherwise they will not come again. One win is enough for you to lose a dozen bets. That's precisely horse racing. I am not against race-goers but my call is to those who bet their lives into it and find themselves left stranded with no place to go. Thank you

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30 Replies

Jimmy Karanjia said ...

06-Mar-2020

Ruchi,

I dont know who you are and what are your credentials as a tipster, are you a handicapper, a punter or what? But your attitude leaves alot to be desired. Let me understand too what calibre are your tips in horse racing that you charge for tips? How many punters have made millions on your tips? Or how many millions have you made? I can bet anything that you have not made money in horse racing, unless you are a bookmaker.

Cheers,

Jimmy

A D said ...

06-Mar-2020

Ruchi, 

one sparrow does not make a summer. Anyone can give one or two a day. Come on, either accept the challenge or quit this coloumn. No past references.

Ruchi said ...

04-Mar-2020

AD

Already posted today a REAL LONG SHOT TODSY

If you could not cash on it yr bad luck

I don't give TIPS FOR FREE

GOOD DAY AND GOOD BYE

A D said ...

04-Mar-2020

@ Ruchi, sorry not of Kolkatta of 5-3-2020, but of 07-3-2020.

A D said ...

04-Mar-2020

@Ruchi, 

Pl don't waste your valuable and precious time in replying to me, a no good punter. But, since you yourself say that your Post's and Analysis are MOST SOUGHT AFTER on this forum, that too from long time, and also you can make Rs 5,000/- into Rs 10,000/-...GOD WILLING, I once again ask you to just post your selections in these two races of Kolkatta of 05-3-2020. Race no: 2...and Race no: 7.Only two races without numerolory, astronomy, astroger's parrots and planets analysis.

This will definitely help your so called followers and friends ob H T, who beg you for your tips, once in a while.

Awaiting your tips/selections before 12.00 hrs tomorrow.

Ruchi said ...

04-Mar-2020

BLUE:

I meant that if the friend goes to RACE COURSE after discussing with me then HIS 5000 , GOD WILLING will become 10,000

I hope you got the message what i am trying to Convey.

AD:

Normally i would not even conider it worthwhile to waste time in replying to guys like you, but amny way, my Posts and Analysis are MOST SOUGHT AFTER IN THIS FORUM from long time, may be you are new in HT and dont know the history.

 

The Joker said ...

03-Mar-2020

Hi fellas

Patience is the name of the game.

I lost the first day on Multifaceted. 50k@70p.

Second day I changed the strategy.

I played five horses on Sunday n covered the sum.

ELECTRA 10k PLACE@18/10

Majestic warrior 10k place@1.60

Tutankhamen 10k place@13/10

Gift of Grace 10k  place@1.25

JULIETTE 10k  place@1.75

I wanted to play Ashwa Brooni but left the course which was a wise decision

So I covered my first day losses.

CHEERS

The Joker

Ruchi said ...

03-Mar-2020

MR I M BLUE

When a friend is going to cricket match he will have to spend his 5000 from pocket which will be gone.

But when the FRIEND goes to cricket match and he hppens to discuss with me, GOD WILLING he may return home with 10 K plus most of times.

 

Iimblue said ...

03-Mar-2020

@Ruchi Sir,  I respect your ability to catch winners. In fact no one has caught outsiders like you. 

Sir,  after Indian Derby you went a little overboard with regard to the prospects of Juliette in Indian Derby. The filly did not touch the board. 

Yet the very same filly (with rating of 80 plus) proved to be the best of her age and finished ahead of the likes of Desert God , in the Invitation. What is your conclusion?  Should be same as mine : that the connections realising that she could not beat War Hammer,  did not go all-out in the Indian Derby. This in my opinion, is a clear case of not allowing to run on merits and against the interests of Punters. 

A person after playing on the Derby day, would have no courage to play her on Invitation day ( even for place). Only the connections are winners here, with the authorities looking the other way. 

If this is happening day in and day out, why a punter should go to race course. Let the owners,  trainers and jockies play among themselves! 

Regarding your other point,  if your friend is going for cricket match, you may lend him five thousand rupees. If he is going to Race course, will you lend ?

A D said ...

03-Mar-2020

@ Ruchi,

If you are so much good in selecting winning horses, kindly stop your parrot writings of numerology / astrology, planets and timings of their movement and in it's place give only your selections.

I doubt you will do so, for very quickly, people will not even read your topics.

Come on Ruchi, you are invited very humbly to give only your selections without any analysis.

Waiting for your good selections.

Iimblue said ...

03-Mar-2020

The stigma attached to horse racing is because it the Turf Clubs. They are unable to conduct the races in a free and fair manner. The control of the game has passed over to trainers, top jockies and influential owners. Of course they welcome the hapless punter just because it suits them. 

     I would like to recall the days at BTC when P J Belliappa was the Chairman. He introduced many punter friendly measures and achieved so much control over the murky elements that suddenly bookies wanted to leave the place. Of course they survived because they have limitless patience, to bide their time. 

Now we are seeing poor administrators all-round who have neither the knowledge or stature to reform the system. The policies of the government such as 28  % GST has not helped the matters. 

If the races are not run on merit,  it is bad for the punters. Arguments that some have caught the winner or made money donot hold water! It would only a coincidence that I played the horse and the horse won the race. Of course it won, but not for the reasons subscribed by me. When apply this winner formula for other races, I am bound to fail!!! 

Ruchi said ...

03-Mar-2020

SSSP

YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY WRONG along with some othe nut here.

It is possible to make some money as well as have the thrill of ADRELINE RUSH with a Systematic and Disciplined approach .

Spending Money to watch a CRICKET MATCH, MOVIE etc is also some sort of ADDICTION . One outing for above and one ends up spending close to 5K.

Same way RACING witha disciplined approach helps to have all the thrills of predicting a winner/Place as well as LUCK and System favouring getting some small returns which is even more thrilling and exciting.

One more thing if you feel that EVEN ONE PUNTER will STOP after seeing your post and your NUTTY GUY's OPINION, you are sadly mistaken.

First of all its sheer hypocricy that the guy who supports you himself gives out "IMPOSSIBLE TO LOSE BETS" which finish more closer to last than FIRST.He will be  the first guy who will soon stop not because of your GYAN but because he will soon be on empty coffers.. 

Pa1 said ...

03-Mar-2020

In every thred regarding invitation races results all are talking about Multifaceted loose and win. If anyone watch the Multifaceted run in sprinter cup, Suraj unbalanced soon after start, due to his unbalance he didn't ride his mount as per merit. And next day he won with same horse. 

Jimmy Karanjia said ...

03-Mar-2020

True indeed, you need to open your eyes and see the proceedings of the Invitation main race. All the supporters of Star Superior in particular. Even a half blind person would see the horse in the paddock and conclude that he has lost condition. The horse was looking like a bag of bones the worse he 's ever looked and true enough he finished in the race as he looked. I dont know who all noticed but the horse weight displayed before the race was 424 kgs, now this may be a display error however for a big strong horse who has always weighed in excess of 470 kgs this is a terrible drop in condition. If simple Lay men like us can notice this I am sure the connections know and it is best to withdraw the horse and not allow him to run. I have called out since 22nd Feb that Adjudicate is far better over the derby distance and thats what happened. Star Superior is not a distance horse and running too many hard races that too over distances of 2000 and 2200 mts which are not his have done him in and he came back lame after the race. If my eye opener instinct is right I dont think you will see this horse race again. He has done his bit ,more than expected and he should be gracefully retired. I hope the connections pay heed to this request

Regarding the other races I have nothing much to comment. Although Multifaceted losing the sprinters and winning 7 furlongs for the first time in his career was an eye opener. Having said that the horse got a bad start and in trying to cut pace with the speediest horse in western India not only he but Iron Age ran out of steam and finished in the rutt. In the 7 furlong race he settled in 3rd position nice and easy at a comfortable pace and won, but thats racing!

Regards,

Jimmy

Saggittarian said ...

02-Mar-2020

While I appreciate your intention, as far as racing is concerned, the intent should come within.

I have seen punters quitting out of disgust. I have seen at least a couple of winning punters quitting(both these are my close friends and the reason being paucity of  time). 

But one should understand that the winner will not always emerge from first three favourites only. An unexpected horse winning at outrageously longer odds is inner part. So, cribbing and continuing racing should not be there.

However let me assure you that the attendance ever since GST has come down considerably.

As long as the habit does not cross your limit, restricting your choice of bets to a maximum of two per day there is no harm. Please rest assured that I am not discussing the loss or otherwise only advocating that one should have strict thumbrules and if it is not possible tostick to the rules will be doing so at your own peril and risk.

Rajaraman said ...

02-Mar-2020

@Ashok mysore  God bless you for honest post better  give in names not numbers 

Ashokmysore said ...

02-Mar-2020

I spent 10 percent of my earnings to.racing never cross the limits so i like to spent my spare time here most probably i am in little plus no harm everybody knows i am in this habbit still no problem had gained more all these years but last one year little. Plus i am in this field for close to 15 years still moving onn

Shaps said ...

02-Mar-2020

@SSPP,

Sir, one more very good analysis from you. Keep it up even if you receive 100's of -ve replies. It looks like there is a pre-determined made-up racing taking place in all the centers by the club officials themselves.

Hope many will benefit from your suggestions / advices. Let the other's play till their pockets become empty.

Viswa said ...

02-Mar-2020

Nice post-mortem report. I, as a knowledgeable and senior punter, am in total agreement with you. The punters have been at receiving end for the following reasons: 1. Sheer addiction to racing. 2. Easy money attitude. 3. Blatant refusal to accept the fact that  horse-racing is a sophisticated gambling. 4. Poor moneitory resources. 5. Lack of self-control . 6. Eagerness to recover  the losses almost the same day. This will multiply one's losses. 7. Finally attending to all race days and betting on every available race. Friends, a simple piece of advice from me- Regard this damn sport as a hobby , be selective in visiting the race course and more selective in betting. Kindly note that your monthly quota of investment in the race course doesn't exceed one-fourth of your monthly revenue. If you can adhere to all these points , one can thoroughly enjoy this sport (?) and spend your LEISURE time there in the race course. Thank you one and all.

Punter said ...

02-Mar-2020

Punter is King ???? forever because of us only the race is come so far. If one quits so what there are millions.its the worst thing to do and even worst to think abt it because hundred percent ???? no body can quit ????. Instead rejoice and enjoy playing as good sportsman's.

Any said ...

02-Mar-2020

Indian Pharoah place [Loss] 1/1

Dandi march place [Loss] 80/100

Multifasted Win [ Recover] 45/10

GIFT OF GRACE PLACE BET [PROFIT] 13/10

TRAFALGAR PLACE BET [PROFIT] 2/1

DESERT GOD PLACE BET [PROFIT] 15/10

Full of pocket Rs.27000/-

 

Sureshot said ...

02-Mar-2020

Dear sspp,

As already mentioned by me that your post is true for selective& non-professional,careless in reading racebook and only gamblers.

I doubt what is ur personal observation close to 25 yrs.

I been observing since 31 yrs.that on such big days like derby and invitation weekend often upset emerges victorious.

There is no logic to it.

Now if if anybody do not have patients not to you bet on these days always bookies will be Plus in catch me If You Can game

You said u went through the two -day race book.

It is surprised to me that seasoned punter like you could not analyze,smell out that it would be wrong day for us as mix and match of horses of different rating ,handicapping,penalties in saddle.

I have not bet single penny in two days .

No ego.

Now I m ready to bet in Delhi races which is regular race day.

You always say no no to races.

Have u formed your own formulas,system ever.

Have u observed racing patterns ever.

I m sorry to say u r only using SMART prefix.

It seems intellectually and mentally ur only poor and coward in racing.

Waiting for ur genuine reply(I.e.finding winners and no bla bla)

With regards.

 

 

Raj-original said ...

02-Mar-2020

@Ssp

You are always right. It's laughable that someone had advised punters to enter race course  with + be mind set to win. Who goes to race course expecting to loose.? 

We have all kinds of characters here on HT. Some astro experts ,some chelas for him,some Numerology pundiths who think 14=7  and race pattern experts. Long live punters and their I'll fate with encounters with such characters.

No matter how hard u try  to enlighten them their fate plays a major role in thier life.

But don't stop writing. Ur doing a great job. Even if ONE punter stop going to race  bcz of you  ur  a  great human being  to me, unlike number manipulators .

Rethvik said ...

02-Mar-2020

Hello sir,  

I agree with you, even I am also a heavy losing punter,  I planned to bet a heavy amount on adjudicate. But playing a small amount on all races,  now coming main race I confused and play desert God which was not even selections of me. I totally frustrated 

Multifaceted what a gamble 80 paise losser very next day 5/1 win

Now I am totally losses everything and quit the racing,  there is no study nothing time waste to study and catching the horses

Raghu said ...

02-Mar-2020

Why crib. If you had followed 4 choices named by tipster + followed 3 numbers mentioned  . Horse number and draw number. Totally 10 bets per race. You would have emerged winner in all 16 races. Accept reality. Horses win due to Astrology and Numerology not on its own merit. 

Suresh P S said ...

02-Mar-2020

Out of 8 races on sunday not 1 first favorite won. In 6/8 races first two favorites did not win. Too many coincidences. 

Destiny1 said ...

02-Mar-2020

Dear SSPP.... I observed lot of Times ur post's after a disaster day of racing... One think brother... Did u really stopped going to races... Because when ever I read ur post's... There will be fresh pain and fresh wounds.... U postings always show that u had lost on that particular day..... SMOKING CAUSES CANCER still people smoke..... Same as racing.... 

Guru said ...

02-Mar-2020

You are correct I won two lakh and lost two of

100% said ...

02-Mar-2020

I neither promoting betting nor introduce race betting with my any friends or family member..

But sir if u  play or eat just one horce monthly at just 90p..your profit would be 90,000 per month..do u xpected more than this?..or what's harm with this..& if u couldn't find one better horce in one months then u should quite sir.this space is not for empty pocket's

Ayyarnet said ...

01-Mar-2020

My dear SSPP
Thanks for your posting and analysis. We do not go for impulse betting. We do not cross our limit. Just because we gained little money one day it does not mean we should throw all the other day. We do   not bet all Races. We go by Jockeyship only not entirely on popularity of Horses. David Egan won a race (Great gatsby)  with good odds and placed 2 horses. Your imagination and wish that we would have last all that we have is wrong.. In my previous post I have already explained to you the loss is only for the middle class people who is coming with an intention to make a fast buck with impulse betting habits. Races are only Hobby for us.

We do have have little money to hold us when we are down and we are not going to Races to become Ambani or Tata. Pulling and pushing is a part of the game. Otherwise there is no fun also ! One should understand. 

 I agree with you that one win will result dozen loss.. People get hooked due to that one win taste.  As you say people will not come and it is a bite to put a small fish to catch a big fish.. Your observation is correct. Jackpot is also almost hanging a carrot before the mouth of a donkey in such away it will not catch it but clim the up hill. we are fully aware of that and I always posted here few races are pre planned to FILTER Jackpot tickets so that fairly good amount gets distributed. OTHERWISE  people will not buy Jackpot tickets. Most of the phools like Exacta  Kickxacta all designed to drain pockets of punters. This also pointed out in my previous posting.

Invitation week end might have  disappoined many people  who threw big amount. Gain and loss is a part of the game.   Loss in a day will never bring us to the street. our loss is recoverable in due course of time.  Those who have followed Jockey Sandhesh would have made little money. .  David Egan and Trevor won quite a lot of races. We did accumulate fairly good amount invested over their talents. On the whole we are not at loss. 

I have already explained to you loss is for the middle people who have limited source and they should follow your policy of quitting Races. We have accumulated enough funds invested for David Egan and Trevor.  Loss or disappointment on one day will not decrease our confidence. I have already pointed out by tradition or by previous experience Byramji family will get one Trophy. 

I always said here irrespective of the of the merit of the horse it is the JOCKEY who takes the horse to the winning post. It is better to follow a frequently winning jockey so that even if there isa loss it can be recovered in due course of time. We do not throw all that we have gained in one day.

we have limit and never cross our limit for impulse etting. Loss or gain  pushing  and pulling is a part of the game. You can not expect every Favorite to win. If you do not have sufficient funds to hold you when you are down you should not come for Races. They must accept your views and quit  We have accumulated sufficient funds by following V.Shinde, Aslam Kader, Late B.Prakash  Jagdish (Father of Trainer Vijay singh & Bharath Singh ) Colm O Donogue  We do not cross our limit even though we may have funds at our disposal. Because we gained one day we do not throw all that gained on one day. Making money in Races is also an ART and you have to learn it. There exists a difference between a GAMBLER and an INVESTOR.

Your idea of advicing to quit Races applicable to certain categories only.They must follow your advice of quitting Races. It is good for them.

 i APPRECIATE YOUR EFFORTS TO EDUCATE THEM.

Please be kind enough to avoid personal attack in this forum

I remember correctly once you have posted here with overwhelming joy that favorites rule the Bangalore Races. 

Best Regards

ayyarnet