@ L Shyam Sunder,

 Thanks for your detailed reply on the 3 Races.My post was with reference to "Handicappers are smart and tricky" and we should very carefully read their mind and Ratings Change.My ciew is entirely different.Handicapper does not burn midnight oil to carefully assess the manner of a horse's run and allot the New Rating.In the 3 races I will offer you a back of the envelope working to arrive at the New Rating.

  1.Handicapper takes the 4 th horse as reference and retains its rating.

  2. We note the Distance of 4 th horse from Winner in Lengths

  3.Note the Difference in Weights carried by Winner and the 4th horse and proceed as follows.

RNO 120  5.75L 4th horse from Winner.We convert the Lengths into 1/8L Units which is 46.For each 1/8L we take it as 0.02 Secs that is 1L is 0.16 Secs slightly off the mark but ease of Calculations

So 92 Units of Time in 0.01 ie 1/100 of a Sec.This being a 1200 Mtrs Race we take 0.07 Sec per 1/2 Kg OR Rating. 92 duvuded by 7  which is 13 plus 2RPs (winner Carried 59 Kg and 4th horse 58 Kg

So penalty is 15 RPs.

For RNO 171 Distance 2.5 L OR 20*2 =40 (1/100 Secs) Beong 1400 Mtrs Race we divide by 8 which is 5 plus difference in weights 4 Penalty 9

RNO 179 Distance 4.25 L 68 For 1600 Mtrs division factor is 10 so 7 plus dufference in Weights 3 equal to 10.

The Revised Ratings and Calculated Ratings almost match.

Now the question we do not come acroos such Hatricks often though the Margin of Wins is of the same order.My interest in Timings is can we get a clue from Timings to spot such Winners.

Your views please.

Friends:

All points are OK in theory but put it in practice is very difficult

The best way is to take casually Racing as a Sport or Hobby and NOT as a Profession. The more you pay attention the more confusion you get. Since we all know very well all Races are not conducted on merit and it is foolish to spend much time on calculation, Numerology or Astrology etc., One must learn to watch the Races more and play a few Races with a certain result. Of course you may not make much money by playing a few Races but something is better than loosing all. One must avoid impulse betting. As faras possible NOT TO REMAIN inside the Bookmakers Ring for a long time. You will be tempted by te Bookmakers and evil forces to confuse and drain your pocket. All these lines are based upon my experience.

Before you go to Race Course decide what you want to play and do not change unless there isa change of Jockey for your selected Horses. Racing is also business oriented Gambling with vested interest.  Recently I played at 10 to 1Horse belonging to Trainer Narendra Lagad ridden by Trevor. He won at the last moment. The Horse was aged one and many younger horses were there and so the Horse was neglected by all. Since I follow Trevor I took a cance. I can not say whether the Horse won on Merit or cooked up race. Because was no where in the Race only at the last moment came from behind outside and won the Race.   So deep study is a waste in today's Racing Scenerio. Just pick up prominent horses play one or two Racesand go home. If you go on invest in all Races you will never make any money in Races.  Plan what you want to play at HOME only and avoid all pools. They are all designed to drain your pocket. No use of playing small amount in all pools. Even if you win and you will lose it in next Race. 

Alternatively play on Place  a few Race and Roll it.May be you will succeed.  Lastly you must engage your self in any useful activity outside Racing to pave a way for steady income.  I have invested in Rel Estate and I get fairly a good income by way of Rent every month. You should not throw all your money in Racing. After all it is a gambling only with NO CERTAINITY for WIN and you have to generate a side income to hold you when you are down. In fact you must learn to be BUSINESS MAN. If you sped all your time for Racing right from the Handicaps declaration then Acceptors and Finally Race Card you will become Mad. Money is te basic necessity and you must first arrange a regular income by way of gainful employment or business activities such as owning a shop or any Trading Activities.  In short you have to take Racing as a Hobby or weekend fun etc and NOT FULL TIME PROFESSION like Bookmakers. Bookmakers bring Lakhs of Rupees as investment and even they may gain one or two Races only. If you analyse considering the their total investment ROI in financial terms Return on Investment is not much if you consider Taxes, Stall Fee Licence Fee Staff salary and MENTAL TENSION while giving odds during Races etc., not worth says many Bookmakers. They are also Happy. Consider our Late Dr.MAM in spite of winning so many Classic Races died as an unhappy Person.  See our Late Jockey Prakash he too won so many Races and so many Classic events but the end was very painful to hear about him. 

Today all our Trainers are facing problem. Money earned are taken away in an unexpected manner.  It gives me an opinion when GOD can give us wealth HE will have ABSOLUTE RIGHT to take away also !!!

We have to take or learn a LESSON from them.

Best Regards to all.

Ayyarnet

Hello Mr. Sun,

Le Marc declined in its rating from 23 to 19 till Race no 189 where it placed 2^nd and clocked 99.68 seconds. In race no 2 at the same rating of 19 when it got its run after 2 months and it placed 7^th and clocked a time of 101.80 seconds. Then it ran in a mixed class 4 & 5 where the horses having the ratings from 15 to 35 were eligible and it weighed 54 – 1 kg = 53kgs. The distance covered was 1400 meters and clocked 87.18 seconds now. It placed 7^th proved unfit in this mixed class.

After 7 months, in race no 120 it won at the rating of 17 points and it clocked 73.84 seconds. This clocked time was unusual for class 5 horses and suited the winning time for Bangalore track in class 4. The expected time @ 1200 meters at the rating of 19, if it maintained the same form then it would have been 74.04 seconds as per my calculation.

Whereas when it was rated at 17 points the expected time would have been 73.35 seconds to 73.8 seconds. To my knowledge this clocked time of 73.84 seconds was reasonable. But Ruler of Nation was a favorite one in race no 120 who clocked 75.49 seconds in its previous race no 88 which cannot be accepted to win on its merit. It was favored only because of Trevor to my assumption.  But Le Marc   won with an advantage of 4.5 lengths (an acceptable clocked timing, and suitable distance to place in next higher rating). According to my choice it was going in Merritt.

In the next higher class it should have been penalized with 10 ratings because of winning, but it was penalized with 15 ratings due to the reason that won with 4.5 lengths. In race no 171 the new rating was 32 in class 4 which I feel the rating was declared properly according to the handicapping practice. Now A. Imran Khan got the mount on this horse who managed to clock 86.69 seconds instead of 87.02 seconds on Nazerul Alam’s mount. This clocked time is again reasonable to my calculation. If this clocked time was the best time in this set of horses, then it deserved winning. Now it was rated to 43 after this win and promoted to class 3.

Now the real problem starts at this junction. How it won and clocked 97.96 seconds whereas INCITUS was the favored on this day. The expected clocking time was 98.8 seconds with Trevor on this mount. I remember very well that Le Marc had a very good track work on this day which did not suit in my calculation. But I expected that Le Marc could surprise due to the hidden clue in the track work. To my knowledge if a horse is trained intensively apart from the previous runs, it often hits the post and we always have a clue in the track work data. There are two choices at this scenario, to go for our calculations or go with the track work data. Same problem I faced this day to go for my selection or go with the track work.

Sir one of the best post for better results in horseback thanks Sir 

Whichever system, method or set of rules one may follow based on his own beliefs, a serious punter must keep a record of his bets, strike rate and ROI. That will tell him like nothing else whether his system is working or not - doodh ka doodh aur pani ka pani.

@ L S Sunddar, just too good analysis about Race selections. I can make out that you have studied the subject of Horse Racing and handicapping in very good detail as you have covered lots of very important points in your write up and I am sure if our friends correctly follow and implement practically these points with some small modifications they can achieve much better results. Thanks for shareing. Good luck to you.

@ L Shyam Sunder

Regarding Point (1) of your post just go through the change in Ratings of Le Marc of Bangalore and offer your comments then I will comment

RNO 92   Rating  19

        120               17   Winner

        171                32   Winner

         179                43   Winner

Revised Rating after 179  52