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Scientific Approach Is The Key To Winning Races Or Safeguarding Against Losses

By Ramanujan | 21-Apr-2020

Hi friends

HT forum as evidenced by the quality contributions and healthy debates is a power house of tenacious talent and is indeed a treat to go through and enjoy. Looking at the intense merciless hauling up here and there occasionally (thank God) of course, within the framework of decorum, participation as a contributor is a different cup of tea.

I must confess I had to fight my hesitation before deciding to sneak in with this piece.

I’ve been into racing for quite a while but today I can neither claim to have been a pathetic loser nor a great gainer affecting my fortune limited though. The gains provided rejuvenation and losses taught me caution alongside, never allowing me to venture into erratic adventurism. Locational shifts for long spells far away from racing centers also helped matters in a conducive way preventing the application of half baked knowledge.  But the fire in me never died down and I persisted with the constant Research and Development efforts in my quest for evolving a reliable system enabling to frequent the winner payment windows. The recent technological development hitherto unavailable opened up a welcome new era with a stream of the remarkably qualitative flow of vital information and data, wielding immense value on the  table paving ground for  our scientific analysis. Incidentally, I should acknowledge apologetically to my straying those days into realms of Astrology, Numerology, Nameology  and trying to link them to racing results. Even the strength of bloodline info, a vital parameter that used to be in the domain of a privileged few, is just within reach of anyone with minimum effort. The previous running record of participants is available for visual treat and appraisal. Bodyweight of horses barring stray exceptions on any day is made available. So are jockey weights. Stewards reports are there to know what happened as also why something failed to happen against earlier anticipation. The only task before you is just to go through the lines, read between the lines and behind the lines to land on the winner.  You have additional parameters at your command the caliber of jockeys and the allowance jockeys and the relative dead weight involved to determine the nomination was indeed aimed at taking advantage or just a hoodwinking effort for a future onslaught, draw nos facilitating or obstructive in relation to distances on hand and so on. I can go on and on in my narration till the cows come home. But it is  You and only you need to put in your own efforts with a scientific application and systematic approach,  The point I would like to make here is that those who had lost fortunes in those dark days earlier without the current advantages, in my considered opinion, should have been the helpless victims in spite of their tenacious talent.  I would only be too happy to see them back with a fresh mind free of prejudice, self-imposed withdrawal and give it a fair try taking due advantage of the current dynamics and resurrect block by block in a systematic manner.This is not to be considered as an appeal but just borne out of genuine empathy nothing more nothing less than that. Individual's free will should be allowed to prevail.   

With the sad passing away of my associate an elderly and revered gentleman, a friend of eminence and well-wisher last year when I had been away from the country, racing afternoons that had all along for a decade served as a good and enjoyable meeting place of like-minded and a mutually admiring handful of friends as a  group with betting and consequent winning or losing playing a relatively relegated role sans significance and I, on my return in Sept ’19 sadly found myself thrust into obscure isolation and ironically started practicing social distancing at the racecourse well before the mandate that was to follow later. I started choosing my seat in an isolated corner as available.  The close-knit handful of members once forming part of the group (Thana serntha koottam) with which I had been comfortable with, having withdrawn from the racing scene on totally different grounds I feel rather increasingly insecure and lonely barring a couple of willingly helpful hands around serving the cause of the oasis in a desert.  

Left alone in the crowd and nothing else to do I turned to the racing scene and started taking a more serious view with a fairly fresh approach setting aside prejudices of the past. Blessed by the departed soul in belief, I started experiencing a promising turn of results. A couple of events passed by are worth recollection.   I presented one race day five pcs of treble tickets 20x5 with a purchase value of Rs,500.  The tote clerk an apprentice found to her amazement the payment slip showing a little more than Rs.1000 or so and four more identical slips awaiting to be fed. She exclaimed to her colleague at the adjoining widow “Iyo! Itho parudi” meaning ‘ How awesome look here dude”. I took mild exception  ‘Take it easy Calm down! Why gather a crowd?

On another occasion With a 6 Nos, of  JP ticket with a purchase value of Rs.600 I presented it to a lady somewhat familiar with dispensing winning tickets for me on earlier occasions at the counter next racing day requesting her to keep ready the proceeds amounting to around  Rs.21K.  She happily did.  After a few days, she happened to see me standing in another queue counter for punching tickets. She threw an admonishingly questioning look to convey “Why the hell you’re not seen after your last winning ?” The same evening I had to look out for her and presented the winning tickets and collected Rs.6000 or so profusely thanking her for the premonition displayed earlier in the day. I also enjoy the friendly demeanor with which the payment clerks disperse payments at the ring.  Whenever I approach their stall for betting confirmation they seem to be wishing me well. I’ve had many such enlivening moments lifting my spirits in my running around the ring and window counters like a headless chicken

 I  must also mention that I am not invulnerable to the hazards of chasing the loss, The case in point was the vain bid to recover the loss On SUPER MARIO through a bet on NORTH WIND  on the last day of Mumbai that too after having taken due note of the sharp jump in body weight after lay off, a clear pointer to its lack of tuning in and manifesting fitness issues. After all, I rightly deserved the perspiration  I went through in the wake of Northwind debacle which had not been there at all earlier for a bet on my radar for the day.

Sorry for the digression.

The best way forward to win races or at least to curtail losses lies in your ability to keep and preserve the past performance records handy, develop data analysis skills and apply them with due diligence to the task on hand with foresight, commonsense and intuition. By way of intense analysis, you can spot the winners-in waiting to hoist flags at an appropriately identifiable placement zone. Given the fact that data Mining Scientist sand Data Analytics is going to call the shots in the future, by way of appropriate predictions guiding business decisions and environment, a similar approach towards racing needs to be applied by punters purging the prejudices of the past. I’m sure you’re a bit amused as out of the box stuff rolling out of someone into a handful of moons away from the landmark 1k moon mark. to take a break from the past? Believe me, Nothing comes on a platter. Hard work, yes absolutely your own can only deliver and pay for you. 

Once again my sincere apologies for not being in a position to dwell into the length and breadth of the nuances of developing the skills. You are aware each and every race card is uniquely different on its own associated with its peculiar characteristics. Strategies to defeat corona can be discussed in an open forum. The advantage here is the virus despite being mercilessly lethal, luckily it carries no brain to understand them let alone circumventing them with due counter plans to stay alive perpetually. It goes without saying it is just a matter of time it will have to bow down in defeat and face extinction forever. On the other hand, if all the stakeholders and punters are armed with identical strategies and cross over to the same side of the fence, where will the money come from for distribution among all the winners?  Not all the cards are solvable within the time at your disposal. If you are into any meaningful learning and acquiring skills it is akin to musical learning - performing Sahitya (practice) sitting alone by way of deep analysis or alongside a qualified and proven talent(if available}, one to one, at a personal level. If you happen to make gains on any day make a habit of setting apart a fixed nominal amount for charity and the amount can be allowed to be accumulated of course barring the same to find recourse under any circumstances except for what it is designed for. Such a noble mindset can create positivity. No harm in giving a fair trial.

Before winding up a small health tip. After having taken a bet on your choice it is highly desirable not to watch the big screen when the race is run. Not everybody can stand the erratic adrenaline rush, alternating between hope and despair. Even if you feel you’re ok with that now, the cumulative damage over a period could be harmful over a period. No matter how much confidence and conviction you carry with your choice get prepared for the worst to happen This attitude will help limiting the quantum of your bet to an affordable level on any occasion and also help you in handling your victory with due happiness or loss (god forbid) with poise.

Wishing you all the best

Cheers

Ramanujan

Cheers

Post Your reply

24 Replies

Ranjan said ...

27-Apr-2020

Mr. Sarvesh,

Thank you for taking my post om the right spirit.

Sarvesh said ...

27-Apr-2020

Mr Ranjan  you have hit the nail on the head.very apt to  punters.this should be a wake up call for day dreamers.

Ranjan said ...

26-Apr-2020

Interminable discussions about "How to  Make Money in Racing" is useless. Fact is that all racing is sustained by losing punters. Assuming Owners, Stud Farms and Racing Clubs do not lose money in the long run, who is paying the salaries of all the employees? It is the losing punter. Thus, to sustain racing, losing punters are essential.

Historically, at least  95% punters lose and  I suspect that  the other 5% are accomplished liars or incidental temporary winners. Simple Fact: If I win big in races, I would not be wasting my time bragging about it in Horse Talk. 

Sus said ...

25-Apr-2020

Well, if learnings from mahabarata and ramayana were well understood, world would have been a much better place. Just need to have the head and eye to learn and retain the learnings. Really appreciate your painstaking efforts on writeup Ramanujan sir, My applauds. Thoroughly enjoyed the high quality wrting. Will lookforward.

Aravind said ...

23-Apr-2020

Sorry Mr Santhosekumar. My memory is very little helpful to me. You made it correct. But my point is some time in races get unexpected result. 

Santosh Kumar Vk said ...

23-Apr-2020

Arvind, 

You need to be specific in your posts and not bring in horses not even 

participating in the race you quote  for an example.

The race in question is Maharajahs cup mysore race 56, 20-09-2019 won by kambaku, wherein Shesmyscript/P Trevor happened to be the favourite clipped the heels of My opinion,stumbled and dislodged the rider.The actual culprit Y S Srinath/kambaku responsible for the incident allowing his horse to shift reslulting in the entire field drifting was allowed to keep the race.The Stewards decision in disqualifying My opinion had more to do with Imran khan's behaviour in the enquiry  and the stewards playing to the gallery since Shesmyscript was the Public  choice .

Regards

 

 

Vinay. Gowda said ...

23-Apr-2020

Am wondering what if racing is shutdown completely. Lol...

Aravind said ...

23-Apr-2020

Very nice article Mr Ramanujan. I just silently reading all articles poured in this platform by manu knowledgeable members. Last twenty days this forum witness realistic approaches to the King of Sports. Whether we loss or gain the enthusiasm to visit Race course won't stop.  Everyone's views is somewhat discussed about working out in deep before entering into course. But one thing we must understand that Man proposes God disposes. 

When owner,Trainer, Jockey plan for a hit and prepare the Horse in question to tip rop condition some thing new arise during the course of race and entire team efforts failed.

Some time back in a race Trevor tried his best to win a race on longer odds, suddenly My opinion came on his path and dislodged him. Objection raised and thrid horse Salazar who finished two lengths behind declared as winner. In this race infact Trevor tried to win, connections of Mt Opinion planned to lift cup but God given the cup to no try horse Salazar. So nothing is sure in Racing.  Keep writting!! 

 

Santosh Kumar Vk said ...

23-Apr-2020

Krishna,

You live up to you name,

No One is invinciblle on HT,

Regards

Pds said ...

23-Apr-2020

@Ramanujan,

I am sorry for I am not going to appreciate you painstaking efforts  in writing your column for the HT, because it does not have very much of value for a serious Horse Race lover/ Punter, like quite a few of us here in.

If I may say so, the only relevant points you have put forward are in respect of availability of past Racing data which the handicappers can access and put to good use in their game plan today. Yes, agreed , but every one knows this and most of the educated handicappers are not only useing it, they can not proceed without it.

However, there is one very emphasized point of yours about which I would like to express my reservations, this point is covered in the last para of your write up and it says, after you have placed your bet, dont watch the big screen as it will adversely affect your moral etc. Here I would like to say and strongly reccomend that to critically watch not only this race, but all the races critically and jot down salient points about the run of the race, jockeys actions, any mishaps, evan minor mishaps/ obstructions, tricks being played and any bad luck stories, below power runs etc. etc. This my friends is an inescapable requirment for any serious Horse Race lover for the future assessment of Races and your worth while studies. Good luck all our friends

 

 

Chanakya said ...

23-Apr-2020

Ramanujan,

A nice  writeup, full of  guidance and  information. The  advice  and  approach  is  correct but  the  problem  is  that  an  average  punter  does  not, I should  say  rather WILL NOT ( CAN  NOT?)  follow these  points  enumerated  by  you.  However  your  effort  is  laudable. Keep  going...

Krishna said ...

22-Apr-2020
SANTOSH KUMAR VK  ..

Quite right on Ruchi

I finished the reading in 4 instalments...

Crk said ...

22-Apr-2020

@ Ramanujan,

I would rate this article penned by you as the best that I have seen on this platform. In all aspects, be it sincerity of purpose; the journey from earlier times with almost no avenues for information to the present with practically an overload of data, if only one cares to dig out...you have laid out the syllabus for the reading of the races. How one proceeds from here will determine his progress in understanding, interpreting, and intelligently working out his strategies.

We have been provided with all the critical information needed to analyze the races as also books, blogs, racing websites (local and foreign) to self learn and be better prepared . Sadly so, we only tend to cry foul for our failures.

We have a long wait for normal times, and an opportunity has presented itself to learn afresh the syllabus.

Or better still QUIT.

Thanks Ramnujan.

Glasgow Prince said ...

22-Apr-2020

The author of the lead post has already expressed his hesitation about writing on HT. My request to every Horse Talker.............Just think about how we would respond if we knew the opposite person. Let's respond instead of reacting. Horse Talk will be a happier place to be in.

Iimblue said ...

22-Apr-2020

Scientific approach is all good in theory but difficult to practice in reality. Scientific approach may work only if all horses are triers and races are run on merit. 

Only a naive person will believe that all horses in the race are there to win. In handicap races,  half the horses simply want a run and another few are place triers. There are numbers of stables whose striking rates are in single digits. Still their licences are renewed year after year. Sometimes I wonder why there are so many races for horses in lower classes. It appears quality is at a premium here. 

We have to admit that catching a winner in India is an art,  not a science. 

Kolramsri said ...

22-Apr-2020

Ramanujan. The title would be more apt if it is posted as MY AGONY and ECSTACY., There is no key to open a pandora box or a protecting Angel against losses. By the time I am halfway through your second paragraph, my wife who entered my room,  seeing me dozed switched the light off, and closed the door gently.

In a lighter mood. About  Geoff Baxter who rode Almanac to Victory in 1982 Indian Derby. Baxter was a hard man; once after an altercation at Newmarket, he caught Lester Piggott with a right hook, knocking the champion jockey out.

V S Rajashekar said ...

22-Apr-2020

Found ur post encouraging in this difficult time

Belive it will boost the morale of punter

Keep it up

Katha Samay said ...

22-Apr-2020

Not Mahabharatha, but discourse of RAMAYANA.
All re-runs, just like Doordarshan.

Sarvesh said ...

22-Apr-2020

Mr ramanujam

 your chronological sequence of events in the  race course  is a damp squib.we have had enough of anecdotes from fellow punters. I wish people like could do away with such inanities.no cock and bull stories for race starving people.there is nothing inspiring in your fairytale.try to express your veiws more succinctly.

Santosh Kumar Vk said ...

22-Apr-2020

Ruchi,

Never knew you were funny Too,

Regards

N.balraj said ...

22-Apr-2020

Well said Ruchi. At the same time I really appreciate the spirit behind the write up. Should be extremely useful. I have personally experienced most of the incidents mentioned in the write up. Thanks Ramanujan.May be I might have seen you in 80s. All the best 

Ramiyer said ...

22-Apr-2020

Dear Ramanujan sir.

After a long long time nice to see you write your thoughts here. Earlier in one of your write ups you had mentioned about typo error due to old age hence not writing regularly though you are active in going through this platform.

Nice to hear that you are fine. Your last para was excellent advising not to see the live race after you bet due to the adrenalin rush.with no races in near future it is nice to read the recent articles written by  S.C.sharma,Iron man,cruise,B.V.Prasad.Glasgow Prince,Kolramsri and others .

Hope you write about the last experience more.

Thank you.

Ayyarnet said ...

22-Apr-2020

Friends:

In India with the current scenerio all these so called scientific theories will not applyvall will be in paper only as theory and never in practice.  Simple reason if the Trainer says no means your money gone with the wind. Everything is executed with full knowledge of Authorities.

If ou wan to make money in Races set aside all calculation just follow a Frequently Winning Jockey or stable. That isall. I have tested for so many years and it is working for me. Although it is crude because you are going to Races to bet on Horses not Jockeys. I accept but in practice it does not work you always end in loss if you follow the Horses. .

With best wishes to all.

Ayyarnet

Ruchi said ...

22-Apr-2020

I THINK the epic MAHABHARATA was shorter......