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My Understanding Of Covid-19 And When We Can Start Racing

By S.k.sagar | 25-Apr-2020

MY UNDERSTANDING OF COVID -19 AND WHEN CAN RACING BE STARTED IN INDIA

In my view the `INTENSITY` Of the VIRUS    will reduce and keep reducing with TIME as well as with the number of transmissions from human to human. This is borne out by the fact that the fatality rate  which was near 50 % in Wuhan in the beginning came down to less than 7 % in ITALY, the country which was most effected due to Italy`s direct connection with WUHAN and enormous traffic between Wuhan and Italy. With subsequent transmissions the fatality rate kept reducing. Currently (as on date .. 25TH April 2020)  it is around 1% (worldwide average) In course of time, it may come down to 0.1 % which is the Rate for the `Normal Flu`.

IMPACT REDUCTION COEFFICIENT ( IRC)
Carrying forward the same logic as explained above  ie there is a reduction in intensity with each successive human to human transmission, let us proceed with the analysis by making some assumptions with regard to the quantum of this reduction and then see if it is matching with the observed data. I have a hunch that the IRC is about 0.4, but to be on the safe side I take it as 0.5.

I start with the first case `A` ie the people who came directly in contact with the agent, their chances of survival were negligible, which means fatality rate was almost 100 percent. Next these `A` category people came in contact with `B` and transmitted the virus to them. Applying the IRC factor of 0.5 to them fatality rate of `B` category people was 50 %. Proceeding further category `C` had a fatality rate of 25 %, D 12.5 %, E= 6.25 %, F = 3.125 % G =1.56 % , H = 0.78 %, I = 0.4 %, J=0.2 % and K= 0.1 % which is the value for a normal Flu. A great many people died in Wuhan while in the categories A, B, C, D, E etc. However After several rounds of transmissions and after the Wuhan Clampdown the impact was finished and people stopped dying as there was no one left of category higher than K.

Now coming to Italy and Iran the two countries in substantial interaction with Wuhan, the virus was already in category C, or D when it reached Italy/Iran, and pretty soon became E, which corresponds to a fatality rate  of 0.0625 ( 6.25 % ) These two countries are now taking good precautions and currently most patients may be in G or H category. Lots of people have died in these countries but the Death curve has reversed, and I expect by End June  all will be in category J or K.
Coming to US, the number of cases is phenomenally large and progressively increasing due to a substantially belated action in enforcing lockdowns, but the average patient is already in category `G` , and it may not be long before `K` is reached at which stage Corona virus is = Normal Flu. I expect the final death figure to be around 100k.

Regarding India, my understanding  - with some assumptions – of the probable Impact of COVID -19 is given below :

As on date the total number of confirmed positive cases is about 25000, total recovered cases about 5000, and total deaths about 800. Now, it is generally understood that the actual  total number of cases in most countries including India is about 6 to 7 times the number of confirmed positive cases as many many cases are unreported, and about 50 % of these likely to have full recovered. Hence total number of positive cases could be about 1.75 lakhs out of which Closed cases might be about 90000, with about 900 deaths (assuming some unreported deaths), the average fatality rate is worked out as about 1.0 %, progressing from 1.5 % to 0.5 %. Hence it is safe to assume that the current Active ( Open) cases are of category no higher `H` ( fatality rate 0.8 %) `.

Assuming a 15 day cycle of `transmission progression` from one category to the next lower category, it should take no more than 3 x 15 = 45 days for the Virus to  progress from category `H` to the safe category `K`, where the fatality rate is no more than 0.1 % which is the same as for Normal flu. Hence it can be stated with some confidence that by about 10th of June 2020, all positive cases of Covid-19 which are active at the time will have a fatality rate of no more than 0.1 %, same as for normal flu. Keeping a safety margin of about three weeks, we can easily make plans to start racing in first week July.

As per my assessment, even in the worst case scenario the maximum number of deaths in India in the year 2020 which can be attributed to Covid-19 is unlikely to exceed 12000. Which means One in every Hundred Thousand people are expected to die in India during 2020 due to Coronavirus. It may be noted that One out of every sixty people die anyway due to other ailment.

The Lockdown in India was very effective and successful in curtailing Cases as well Deaths. However extending the Lockdown any further will be counterproductive.

In my view all sporting activities including horse racing can start by Mid June in no case later than July first week.

We can discuss and debate. I have an open mind. And I can stay till the cows come home.

CHEERS

BEST WISHES

S.K.SAGAR

 

Post Your reply

22 Replies

Skumar said ...

06-May-2020

thanks, you are the sole guardian... u r no certyfying authority Sir Ji.... I wrote to NAR with good intention and u intervened with your glut of a mouth piece...if yes, that i wrong , i was v v polite to Mr NAR..see your write up and conveyancing... anyways this field is filled likes of you sir Ji..Naam bade darshan Chote... Anyways i hv nothing about sir ji... Lets Parkooooo

Vinay.gowda said ...

03-May-2020

By mistake I pressed enter. Continuation..

Skvk.

Classes stars from Monday to 17th of May. You need to bring your own b... Brains to l... Learn.

Venue, will WhatsApp you.

No fee, no gifts, no token of love/friendship.

You can bring your followers with you ....

Vinay.gowda said ...

03-May-2020

Skvk,

And we don't have to learn l.b from you,

No,thanks.

Santosh Kumar Vk said ...

02-May-2020

V.G.

we must learn B.L. from you,

Regards

Vinay.gowda said ...

02-May-2020

Sagar sir, I have nothing against you or with your write-ups. When it is between two people they should sort it out. Why this chamchas, bhakths comes in to the picture and impose like and dislikes on others. If they want to show how much loyal they are there are other ways to do it..... You belong to 1% of elite group at HT.

Dr. Israr said ...

01-May-2020

Dear Sri. S. K. Sagar, Thanks for the subsequent information and posts. End of the day as it happens in racing, IT IS THE SAVING THAT MATTERS, BUT NOT EARNING, similarly lifes saved is  most important than the other issues of the disease.  When the sentiments of people keep fluctuating, it paves way for the mistakes.  The real testing times are ahead, when the lock down is lifted and our peoples collective behaviour will be tested in restarining from chaotic to regulated.  I hope the contagion will not vanish from our society, all of a sudden, but will take atleast an year and half before we start forgettting it. This period of 18 moths has many inclusive predictions like your IRC, invention of vaccine, its suitability, adoptability and efficacy for various regions/countries, and other known/ unknown variables.  Till that time (though the span is discouraging), an intelligent and effective Government will be that one, which can formulate and implement useful, effective and safe strategies to convert the lock down into a state of basics to roll on in essential sectors with minimal damage and oreint the entire society to adopt to this new normal.

 

S.k.sagar said ...

30-Apr-2020

@ Vinay-Gauda ... Let there be a congenial atmosphere at HT .. It is my humble request. 

Regards and best wishes to all my friends who have posted their views on this thread.

S.K.SAGAR

S.k.sagar said ...

28-Apr-2020

@ Dr. Israr…. You are right, there is no fixed value that can be given to The IRC ( Impact Reduction Coefficient). It can vary from 0.1 to 0.9 depending on various factors such as the manner in which it is transmitted, the temperature and humidity at the time and place, and above all the coefficient of immunity of the one who is receiving the transmission, which in turn depends on the persons age and health, and whether he or she is a suffering from any chronic disease etc. The `average` value ( 0.5) of IRC, I have considered is arbitrarily chosen and then matched with observed statistical data. If it is incorrect, it may be on the conservative side, perhaps it is closer to 0.4 than 0.5.  I could be wrong ... we`ll see.

Vinay.gowda said ...

28-Apr-2020

Skumar, don't expect everyone will be a boot licker like you.. Stop hero worshipping. Don't impose your thoughts on others let him write whatever he wants after all its not owned by you or your heroes. Have seen your posts...cc,BCC,to,from,regards,thanks, nothing creative or informative. The less said better for your posts...

Santosh Kumar Vk said ...

28-Apr-2020

I AGREE

 

Dames_bond said ...

27-Apr-2020

@Glasgow Prince,

Wow!
You put to shame the work of Ian Fleming and degrade the one with a license to kill. Human imagination is beyond boundaries.

S.k.sagar said ...

27-Apr-2020

Further discussion on the subject about the nature of the virus : •

The first and foremost requirement is to understand the nature of the virus. Is it from Bats? Is it a deliberate creation of a Biomedical weapon? Or was it an accidental creation of an `Agent of Destruction`? A friend of mine - I`ll reveal his name near the end -sent me an article on Whats App written by a Chinese. The story goes that the Virus was Man-made with specific intent of using it on the Hong Kong protesters to make them docile. First, it was tested on some human guinea pigs. Unfortunately, it quickly became apparent that the Agent also had other effects and was found to be extremely dangerous. Somehow the CIA (The DEEP STATE component of) came to know of it and started taking interest in the work and asked for samples for their own research and testing purposes. But given the extremely toxic nature of the Agent, the request was declined. The CIA was convinced that China had developed something very powerful and wanted to keep it to itself. . They (the CIA) offered money… Someone offered to sell them a specimen. Efforts were made to stop it from happening. In the ensuing shoot out several dozen people were killed. More importantly, however, the Sealed vial containing the agent dropped and was shattered .. and the Agent escaped Once it was realized that the Agent had escaped and would start to spread, the city of Wuhan was clamped under lockdown. Of course, such a huge undertaking could not have been kept as a secret, so it was decided to order the state media to report that a “coronavirus” had broken out in Wuhan .In reality, of course, there is no “coronavirus”. It was all made up. The rest will be history. Statistics of `Predicting the final outcome` will be different if the `Accident Theory` is confirmed. If the article - referred above - is proved authentic, then the other information in the article pertaining to Factual Information may also be correct - though highly exaggerated. Which means the number of deaths already happened in Wuhan is not just 3000 Plus, but in hundreds of thousands (the assessment by the author of the article is in millions, which I think is exaggeration). The other factual information that may also be correct is that the structures which were constructed in record time were only partly hospitals and predominantly warehouses made to store the dead bodies, and at the other end was a massive furnace for `you know what`. Well I am just providing the `Information in the Field` made available to me by the interactions of the world, and I hope I am wrong. Now the good news .. which will still be good .. whether the accident theory is correct or not correct. I come now to the information in the `Article` which is not factual but pertaining to the author`s assessment and prediction that the accident may lead to a worldwide catastrophic pandemic, is in my view not an accurate assessment. In my view the `INTENSITY` Of the Agent will reduce and keep reducing with TIME as well as with the number of transmissions from human to human. This is explained in my original posting. • And now I`ll reveal the name of my friend who sent me the article on Whats App … He is none other than our very own `GLASGOW PRINCE` • Cheers •

@ Israr .. will clarify regarding the IRC Factor tomorrow

Dr. Israr said ...

27-Apr-2020

Dear S.K. Sagar, I happen to follow your posts since very long, when you published "Weight and Distance Handicapping" in horse racing.  That was a beautiful theoretical article. But as time progressed, i started realising the practical deviations from those unrealistic assumptions. And often it turned out to be the out hadicapped horse which prevailed, against that theory. 

While I agree on your present theory to some extent, have noticed few uncertain elements involved in this analysis, which  are against your assumptions.  Some of them are: 

IMPACT REDUCTION COEFFICIENT ( IRC) There is a reduction in intensity with each successive human to human transmission.

There is no guarentee that IRC is always a reducing coefficient, in many cases this had a sinusoidal behaviour.  If we are examining the newer symptoms, on a time scale, infact this virus is mutating twice in 15 days, and the dynamics of the symptoms and  infection propagation is taking random turns (For ex: Initially it was considered that, it reaches the host only through sneezing, but now various other modes of infection propagation are feared.  Initially only fever was considered as symptom, now many such symptoms). Why Symptoms, now even there are many new cases which are Asyptotic. Coming to the death percentage in comparison to the infected number, there is no universal behaviour and standard  relation. (For ex: although many countries are following the out break of this disease since November 2019, the effective reactions and procedures adopted in containing are different, USA, UK, Europe which are supposed to be advanced countries failed to announce and contain the epidamic when it reached thier shores, in contrast the leadership of our country was quick and efficient in implementing the lock down).  So effectively it is the Perception that is making the defference but not the proximity or existing facilities in dealing with this pandemic.  A careful analysis of the novel charecteristics of this virus, makes me feel that, it is ultimately the Vaccine, that could be an end game for this pandemic, which might be available from Sept/October and might take one more year to be admistered globally that could make Covid-19, a Past.  Till that time a transformed human behaviour, adopting scientific methods can only keep the numbers at minimum, with possible occassional leaks.

S.k.sagar said ...

27-Apr-2020
@ Glasgow Prince .. Thank you for your kind words.

Response to your question: The current status with regard to the category of `active cases` in Italy is between `G` and `H` as mentioned in my posting and not `E`. `E` Was the status in the initial few weeks after it arrived from China.

For arriving at the current status in Italy, I have used the same yardstick as for India, which is explained below:

The total number of confirmed positive cases in Italy is approx. 197000, of which about 65000 have recovered and about 26000 deaths reported. Like in every other country the number of Unreported ( including untested) cases is about 6 to 10  times the reported cases, as a substantially large number of cases go unreported with mild to very mild symptoms, most of them have recovered fully, in many cases people may not have felt  any symptoms  at all. These are views of several experts as you may have also heard. I have taken the unreported figure as 6 times which id the lower value of the range (6 to 10) times as per experts. Also I am taking a figure of only 50 % as recovered cases, actually a much larger percentage would have recovered.

Accordingly the total number of cases = 197000 + 6 x 197000 = 1379000, total recovered = 65000 + 3 x 197000 =647000, number of deaths assuming about 5 % unreported = 27300. Hence fatality rate is worked out as 4.2 % which is slightly above category `F`. The 4.2 % fatality rate is actually the average fatality rate for those who have died, having progressed from `E` to `G`. Accordingly the current intensity of cases in Italy is of category `G`. In all probability it may be closer to `H` as my assumptions may be on the conservative side.

Chanakya said ...

27-Apr-2020

@ SK Sagar,

Your  analysis  is ok from the point  of  scientific  study  and thereby  drawing logical  conclusions. We  were  fortunate  that lockdown  was  imposed befor  any  major spread  of  disease. While  in  Wuhan though  the official   figure is  around  4000 deaths the  truth  is  entirely  different. Before  the  so  called  containment of disease the  stellite pictures  shown  for  few  seconds by  USA which  were  later  withdrawn  tell  a  different  story. For  few  days there  was  a  huge  red  patch over  Wuhan which  indicated  huge  heat  radiation  from earth  surface captured  by  satellite  cameras indicating  huge  fires  being  burned  in  that area. Was they (chinese?) burning  jungles  or  destroying  human  bodies  by  fire is  anybody's  guess...

 

India  is lucky  that  in  last 2  months the  death  rate  is  below 900. In  my  opinion  it  will never  cross 4000 when  the disease  becomes  extinct  or  comes  under  control. Extending  lockdown  will  not  help, personal  hygiene, safe  distancing will  hep  reduce  the  spread...

Things  will  be  under control  by mid or  July  end  in  India  and  if  the  clubs want  the  racing  may  start  from August/September....

Glasgow Prince said ...

27-Apr-2020

Dear Mr Sagar,

At the outset, as all race enthusiasts would squeal in unison 'Aapke muh me ghee shakkar!' If the pandemic does in fact play out as per your unique estimation, it should be sooner than later that life would be back to normal ............. a life without face masks, sanitizers and 20 seconds hand washes.

Presently, would be glad to get a few clarifications.

1. While matching the current fatality rate of less than 7 % in Italy with the E stage rate of 6.25 % based on IRC, only the officially reported figures have been considered. However, while estimating the current fatality rate in India, unreported figures have also been taken into account.

2. What is the basis for assuming that 50 % i.e. 50,000 cases in India must have been closed (meaning 'recovered' as I understand)? Similarly, how have 900 deaths been estimated? These numbers hold the key. The official figurs of 25000 positive cases and 800 deaths indicate a current fatality rate of 3.2 %.

3. Is there any medical evidence to back up the theory?

Best regards

 

 

Skumar said ...

27-Apr-2020

Dear Ramdas ....

You are new entry to HT i Presume..... All I can Say a Welcome to HT but request you to see as to who is writing and opening the thread. seeing your reply i thought u r new to world of HT and nothing in specific..

Warm Regards to You

SKumar

N.A.RAMDAS said ... On : 26-04-2020 12:48 pm

very good write up sagar  take it for sure the racing will resume by mid july 

Iimblue said ...

26-Apr-2020

@Sagar ji, 

I have great respect for your views and hope fervently that your prediction may come true,  for the sake of the Country. If that happens,  India would have come out  relatively unscathed from this calamity. 

As @Cruise says,  punters are great optimists. I remember a day ( before the advent of internet)  , when thousands of punters were standing in front of BTC,  braving the heavy rains. We knew there was less probability of racing to start,  even less chance of the full card for the day getting completed and no chance of fancied runners winning. Still we waited and and there was sigh of relief all-round when the rains stopped and gates were opened. As expected,  only three races were run with rank outsiders winning them. Still there was some satisfaction in the punter fraternity that they saw some action and the day was not really wasted  !

Cruise_b'lore said ...

26-Apr-2020

Hello Mr Sagar,

Gamblers are considered as eternal optimists and your article certainly endorses that.

I do hope and pray that your prediction does come true.

regds,
Cruise

N.a.ramdas said ...

26-Apr-2020

very good write up sagar  take it for sure the racing will resume by mid july 

 

B.v.s.prasad said ...

26-Apr-2020

Sagar sir your article is entire differ wd Anil mekhi sir's article, I am always in a positive manner & I will agree wd what you said is absolutely true let's hope for the best to our community.