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Breeders' Cup Saturday

By Abbas J | 03-Nov-2020

Breeders' Cup Saturday: Baffert's Classic trio in three outside posts; Tiz the Law draws post 2
Nov 02, 2020

Emily ShieldsMaximum Security, coming off a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes (above), will start from the outside post in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic.
Trainer Bob Baffert’s three-headed monster for the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday at Keeneland landed the three outside posts, while Tiz the Law, who has shown a preference for racing outside, wound up stuck in post 2 when a field of 10 had posts assigned at the draw Monday night.


The 1 1/4-mile Classic is the last and richest of the 14 Breeders’ Cup races that will be run Friday and Saturday at Keeneland for this 37th edition of the Breeders’ Cup. There are nine Breeders’ Cup races Saturday, five of which had full fields, four that required also-eligibles. Scratch time is 8 a.m. Eastern Saturday, so that’s the deadline for also-eligibles to get in.

Improbable, winner of the Whitney and Awesome Again in his last two starts, drew post 8 and was installed as the 5-2 favorite on the track line set by Mike Battaglia. Brad Free, who made the Saturday prices for Daily Racing Form, also has Improbable favored, but at 3-1. Just outside Improbable are his two Baffert stablemates, Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up Authentic in post 9, and Maximum Security, who won the Pacific Classic and was second in the Awesome Again, in the outside post.

“That was crazy,” Baffert said. “They’re going to be easy to watch. They have a long run to the first turn. They’ll have to break well. They all have speed. The jockeys will work it out.”

Irad Ortiz Jr. rides Improbable, John Velazquez is on Authentic, and Luis Saez rides Maximum Security.

Tiz the Law, winner of the Belmont and Travers and second in the Derby, never has started closer to the rail then post 3 in his eight races, and often is handled by Manny Franco with the intent of getting outside horses. He’ll have to work out a trip, with the aggressive By My Standards immediately to his outside.

“It certainly wasn’t our first choice, but I think the way it sets up makes it very interesting,” said Jack Knowlton, who runs the Sackatoga Stable partnership that owns Tiz the Law. “The horses next to us, I think Manny’s going to have an opportunity to put him where he wants him, and we’ll see what happens outside. Not the worst thing that could happen.”

Tiz the Law is the second choice of both Battaglia (3-1) and Free (4-1).

The Classic field, from the rail out, is Tacitus, Tiz the Law, By My Standards, Tom’s d’Etat, Title Ready, Higher Power, Global Campaign, Improbable, Authentic, and Maximum Security.

The other main headliner Saturday is the $2 million Distaff, featuring a showdown between Monomoy Girl, winner of this race in 2018, and Swiss Skydiver, who beat Authentic in the Preakness last time out. Monomoy Girl, the 8-5 favorite of both Battaglia and Free, drew the outside post in a field of 10 for the 1 1/8-mile race, with Swiss Skydiver, the 2-1 second choice for Battaglia and 5-2 for Free, in post 5.

The $1 million Filly and Mare Sprint, at seven furlongs, kicks off the Breeders’ Cup portion of the Saturday card. Nine entered, with Gamine – the 7-5 favorite of Battaglia and 8-5 for Free – in post 2 and the wickedly fast Serengeti Empress, the second choice of both price makers (3-1 Battaglia, 5-2 Free), drawing favorably outside of her, in post 7.

The $1 million Turf Sprint follows, with a full field of 14, plus four also-eligibles, going 5 1/2 furlongs. Got Stormy, runner-up in the Mile on turf last year, starts from post 12 as the 7-2 favorite on Battaglia’s track line, with Imprimis (post 3) and Leinster (7) next at 4-1. Free favors Imprimis at 4-1, followed by Got Stormy at 9-2 and Leinster at 5-1.

The $1 million Dirt Mile is restricted to 12 runners, and drew 13 entrants, with the Japanese longshot Pingxiang on the also-eligible list. Complexity, the 2-1 favorite for Battaglia and 5-2 favorite for Free, has a wide draw, in post 10, with only Jesus’ Team and Owendale outside him. Knicks Go, the second choice at 7-2 for Battaglia and 4-1 for Free, drew more favorably, in post 5.

Rushing Fall, winner of the Juvenile Fillies Turf three years ago, is the 5-2 favorite of both Battaglia and Free among a field of 14 in the $2 million Filly and Mare Turf going 1 3/16 miles. Sistercharlie, winner of this race in 2018, tries to improve on her third-place finish last year. Those two are part of a four-horse contingent in this race for trainer Chad Brown, who also sends out My Sister Nat and Nay Lady Nay.

Vekoma, making his first start in four months, landed the outside post among the 14 who are in the main body of the $2 million Sprint, at six furlongs. He is the 3-1 favorite for Battaglia, 7-2 favorite for Free. C Z Rocket must flee post 2. On Battaglia’s line, he is the co-second choice at 7-2 with Yaupon, who drew post 10. Free has C Z Rocket at 5-1, Yaupon at 6-1. Lasting Legacy is the lone also-eligible.

Ivar is the 4-1 favorite on the lines of both Battaglia and Free in $2 million Mile on turf. Uni, last year’s race winner, is the second choice at 5-1 on Battaglia’s line but is the sixth choice, at 10-1, on Free’s line. Both are drawn wide of the 14 who are in the main body of the race, with Ivar in post 11 and Uni 12. Raging Bull, like Uni trained by Brown, wound up in post 14. He is the 5-1 second choice on Free’s line. Order of Australia is the lone also-eligible.

Magical, runner-up to the great Enable in the $4 million Turf in 2018, tries to go one better this year, heading a field of 10 as the 5-2 favorite of both Battaglia and Free in the 1 1/2-mile race. Mogul, like Magical trained by Aidan O’Brien, is next at 4-1 on Battaglia’s line. Free has Channel Maker the second choice at 4-1. Magical goes from post 2, with Mogul landing the outside post, but the field is relatively small enough, and the race long enough, that posts should be inconsequential.

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IRIAN ELA said ...

On : 06-11-2020 06:17 pm

Abaas sir -Thanks for the analysis

As per Mozan numerology either 

MAXIMUM SECURITY  or TOM'S d ETAT  should win the classic

Reason - Days ruling figure  4 1 8 8

Maximum security - H N o.10 = 1, horse value  8   so the outright winner  - even though beaten last time

Tomsdetat  - H.No.4, Horse value 4  -so unit force  -second choice

               even though aged 

Let us wait & see 

Happy racing