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Grey Areas In The Comparative Output Of January'2021 Classics With January'2019 ??

By Bka | 01-Feb-2021

   Importance of slightly new trends in Classic Races as partially visible in last 2 races namely ---- Bangalore Derby. 26th Jan'21 & Golconda Oaks 31st Jan'21, two things common for study purposes that winner started or moved up to front running when Winning Post was almost 1000M away & won these two Classics (Different way not Start To Finish or generating an alarming burst in last 600M or even less distance away from Winning Post, conventionally), with miserable timings as evidenced by first 1400M timings and total 2400M timings. (Accelerate or show dash for this remaining 1000M , lack of devastating burst/ ding dong battle or telling strides).

     Timings quite poor 2 mt : 35 sec & 2 mt : 32 sec (one to observe) respectively in comparison to previous years these Classics taken in the calendar year.  ## Is this a strategy (beyond understanding of simple punter) or something brewing out ?? or just made pace for 2nd & 3rd placed horses (Lombardy / Lake Tahoe in Hyderabad & Sovereign Legend / Forest Flame in Bangalore Derby, respectively), taken as preparatory / welcome race for further coming Classics. (There previous outings were mere **Lung Openings**, treat like so, if possible).

#Table-1) Classic Races Winner:2400M In Approximately January'21**

(Timings for 2400M, Name Of Winner, Name Of Race / Date Shown)

1) Antibes BNG Oaks Gr.2, Time 2:34.33** 2nd Jan'21

2) Lagarde BNG Derby Gr.1, Time 2:32.21** 26th Jan'21

3) Born Queen Chennai Derby Gr.1, Time 2:33.18**14th Jan'21

4) Black Pearl Kolkata Derby Gr.1, 2:34.09** 17th Jan'21

5) Immortality Golconda Oaks Gr.2, Time 2:35.44** 31st Jan'21

  Now, compare, small perusal of this with Table-2 kept almost same months (Constant Standard) for easy comparative analysis for the year-2019.

##Table-2) Previous Classic Races Winner : 2400M In Corresponding Jan'2019***

1) Star Superior Indian Derby Gr.1, Time 2:28.92** 3rd Feb'19***

2) Rochester Indian Derby Gr.1, Time 2:29.05*** 4th Feb' 2018##

3) The Invader BNG Derby Gr.1, Time 2:33.86*** 26th Jan'19

4) The Pharaoh Golconda Derby Gr.1, Time 2:38.28*** 27th Jan'19

5) Blue Bell Golconda Oaks Gr.2, Time 2:34.49*** 7th Jan'19

6) Adjudicate Kolkata Derby Gr.1, 2.30.06*** 13th Jan'19

7) Psychic Force Chennai Derby Gr.1, Time 2:33.11*** 15th Jan'19

  **Data Interpretation & Artificial intelligence** of the above two tables, emphasis very interesting results & throw some clumsy light over "Grey Areas", likely to be studied for **Future Classics**. However, penetrometer reading / weather / climate also are variables & have its own impact on that particular day.

    My small anxiousness brought myself to some scale / dimension, tried to tiny vivid picturisation (no novelty at all) would be **Greeted To Greatest** by not even great, without "Fathom A Reason & Frail".

 

 

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7 Replies

Vj said ...

04-Feb-2021

Good one mate, if you see even regular races are not that competitive. Every horse wining by 5L margin 7L margin. You rarely see 3 or 4 horses in a blanket finish. 

Golden Viper said ...

03-Feb-2021

Excellent  work  and  write  a  pleasant  change other  than   only tips

Please  keep  it  up

Gsl said ...

02-Feb-2021

@ sun. .very valid n correctly writen. .8 MONTHS OF NO RACING FOR HORSES N JOCKEYS N TRAINERS IS SURELY A MAIN FACTOR OF THE TIMINGS. .SPECIALLY FOR STAYING RACES. ..TRACK WORK OR SECRETLY PREPARED IN THOSE LOCKDOWN TIMES. .STILL RACE PRACTICE IS SO MUCH IMPORTANT. ..YEAH HORSES WHO ARE PREPARED WELL WILL ROLL FOWARD N TEST OTHERS. ..THERE IS TIME FOR THE TIMINGS TO GO BETTER AS THE RACING GOES. ..THANX SUN JI  FOR BRINGING THIS POINT. .

Gn said ...

02-Feb-2021

@BKA

I think you forgot to mention War Hammer's timing who was the Indian Derby winner last year. Please update it sir.

Newbie said ...

02-Feb-2021

Great observation !!! Keep it up Sir :-)

Sun said ...

02-Feb-2021

Very careful observation but conclusion that there appears to be change in manner of ride may not be correct.

A look at the Ratings of Runners provides some clue.The horses which participated in this year's classicly have not raced adequately to get an idea of the Response of a Horse.With the results the Jockey's may have a taken a Wait,Watch and Proceed approach. This gives the impression that the type of Running is not on the lines of Yester Years.

No doubt Timings are Slower that is also because of  long periods of No Racing.

Godzilla said ...

02-Feb-2021

BKA

Thorough analysis by you and great write up with statistics. I admire such intelligent analysis instead of false claims by the so called experts. Keep it up sir.