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What Is The Meaning Of "calculated Risk"?

By Raghavan | 06-Feb-2021

In business circles, we often hear the term "calculated risk".   This term is used in racing circle also from the punters/bookies.

Yesterday, a punter placed his bet on Gazebo talk.  Bet size was 3000/-.   The horse finished 3rd.  Two rank outsiders finished 1-2, and the forecast paid a whopping 5000+.

There was another bet of 10,000/- on Akshay Kumar ridden Bellator.  Another bet was for 7500 on Suraj ridden Salazaar.  In fact in that race where only four horses participated, the forecast paid 164/- . Both Bellator & Salazaar were firm favorites.

These are the bets that I saw personally.  There are too many bettors who look so sheepish after every race.  Perhaps, if bookies were present, the same punters might bet 5 times to 10 times of what they are betting at tote.

But, whether such bets are justified?  Whether we can classify them as "calculated risks".

To me, there is no meaning in  "calculated risk" inside the race course.  A bet of 3000/- on an even money favorite or a bet of 500-1000 on a long priced horse (6 to 1 or above) may be considered as decent gambling.   But, such bets might be excused if a man is betting his own money thaat he can afford to lose.  If he is betting on borrowed money, the chances of his bet clicking is very very less.  No one can build houses, celebrate marraige of their children or mobilise the finance for  professional course of their children.  

What is the remedy?  Quitting races?  That is the easiest thing.  Almost all punters have quit race betting approimately 50 times in their life time.  The best remedy is to "CUT LOSSES".  Bet on limited number of horses, bet low & bet with the money that you can afford to lose.  There is no SURE SHOT WINNERS, and no CALCULATED RISKS inside the race course.

 

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10 Replies

Abbas J said ...

09-Feb-2021

Hello All, 

This is especially true with those new to betting. SP in horse racing means 'Starting Price'. These are the odds calculated based on those being offered by the bookies at the course. ... This is a calculated risk, the bookie may have offered you 10/1

Golden Viper said ...

07-Feb-2021

Times  have  changed  so  has  the  punter  with  his  betting he  is  careful  nowadays.

As  per  my  bookie they  just  break  even. To  encourage  more  betting  have  waived  off !0 % tax

Suresh Verma said ...

07-Feb-2021

Raghavan sir,There's only one mantra regards racing bet,that is how much one can afford to lose.If one can follow this mantra,one can survive in racing till he likes.Nothing other because ultimately everyone is a looser in racing.

Gsl said ...

06-Feb-2021

Hi all....n @ all..calculated risk is a real n the better way to invest ur real money ..things being discussed is very nice topic n real gropers wud b so much benifited. .My own say on this is Dam'n important point n i'll share mine on this very post soon. ...IT'S ALL ABOUT MONEY MANAGEMENT FIRST. ..CALCULATED RISK IS CONNECTED. ..GUD LUK FOR TOMORROW'S MUMBAI HORSE RACING. ..

Raghavan said ...

06-Feb-2021

Bobotha,

Law of probability, Law of average etc do not work in horse race. 

So far no one has discovered the formula for winning in horse race/s.  You can bet on past performance.  You can bet on jockey's competence.  You can bet on track work.  Or you may decide your bet based on odds.  Every logic will prove correct 5 times, wrong 10 times.  

You can only place your bets.  Whether, it will click or not is not in your hands.  So, decide on the horse; decide on the bet amount which you can afford to lose.  

NO BODY HAS EVER BET ENOUGH ON A WINNING HORSE.

Godzilla,

12 1/2 paise?  That must be about 40 years back.  Long before I entered race course.

The chances of your horse winning is inversely proportional to your bet size.  You bet small.  On a 3/1 horse or 7/1 horse.  the chances of its winning is really bright. 

On the other hand, bet heavy on a sure shot at cramped odds.  You can be sure of the result even before the starter's order.  

I remember punters betting 50k on super champion horses, Desert God & Searjent at Arms.  At Mysore derby.  Desert God at evens finished 3rd where as SAA at 28/100 finished 2nd.  Of course, who can forget about the Himalayan loss to punters on Be Safe at 60ps in invitation cup?  Quasar won at 40/1.

Pradeep Sethi,

There are two or three crackpots among horsetalk members who claim they always win millions everyday.  But, I bet that they are the bigger loser than myself.  

crk

Right.  It is not easy for a person addicted to liquor or gambling to kick that habit completely.  I have seen men in their eighties visiting race course everyday.  However, a punter can always CUT HIS LOSSES.

Crk said ...

06-Feb-2021

@Raghavan,

Absolutely! A sane voice , giving a very practical advice!

Heed it. It may just turn around your life in ways you may never believe possible, especially those of us who may have lost heavily in monetary terms and family life. Both are important and needs to be treasued with utmost diligence. After all, we have just this one life and this one family.

Why put it at stake for ' Loknath Gowda's ' or...Someone else's devious plans!

Think about it.

Regards.

 

Gowda's

Godzilla said ...

06-Feb-2021

raghavan

No one can be as crazy as my friend, who played some years back Alix [ Antia up]  two pettis on 12- 1/2nP after taxes [illegal]. He handed over the bag containing  two pettis to the Bookie as it is.   Alix led till distance post and packed up. Yousuf Khan on Capriati won with 10 to 1 odds.  It was a three horse field.

While my friend left the Race Course in a huff, I collected the empty bag from the bookie and left, much to the delight of the Bookies.

Racing of this type is happening since long. No regrets as such. Those who wants to continue, can continue.

Heera said ...

06-Feb-2021

Hi,

Horse win a particular race based on 4-5 factors. A punter should decide what are these factors. This is the course where no one is certified.

As a punter, every one first understand why handicapper selected 12-14 horses bunch in the card and why the remaining horses removed from the handicap list.

It's a vast never understanding subject. It's a circle game.. every season the game is different. Better leave this game and continue with your business or job.

Regards

Heera

 

Pradeep Sethi said ...

06-Feb-2021

VERY WELL SAID,SIR.

RACING ONLY WITH LIMITED MONEY 500 TO 1000 IF YOU CAN AFFORD.WIN OR LOOSE.

HAVE YET TO MEET ANYBODY WHO REGULARLY WINS AT RACES.96% OF PUNTERS LOOSE EVERY DAY,THE OTHER 4% WWHO WIN LOOSE NEXT TIME.AND YOU KEEP ON THINKING NEXT TIME YOU WILL GET IT RIGHT,BUT YOU NEVER WILL.

PLAY FOR FUN IF YOU HAVE EXTRA MONEY,THIS IS NOT A BUSINESS .

ONLY BOOKIES AND THE CLUB WINS EVERY DAY.

 

 

 

Bobhotha said ...

06-Feb-2021

Can you define law of probability sir. If it's know easy to play and win.