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Derby Day Race; Musings.

By Raghavan | 29-Mar-2021

1st race.  Logically No 1 was favorite. The horse, Arcadia had finished 4th in Oaks cup ahead of some top names in Indian racing circuit viz Born Queen, Lombardy, Antibes etc.  It finished 3rd.  Redoubtable and Justified finishing ahead.  The forecast in that race paid whopping 631/-.  How a horse can lose form so early compared to its previous run just 21 days back is a mystery for which there will be absolutely no explanation.

2nd race: Favorite won.  But the horses that finished 2nd & 3rd would have stunned everyone.  Apsara star & Caprisca.  Ahead of such horses like Wizard of stocks, My opinion & Psychic force.

Result of 1st & 2nd race is definitely questionable.  But, it is safe to presume that stewards were playing holi at race time and had absolutely no worry about the fraud that is happening right below their nose. 

6th race (derby).  Winner picking was damn easy.  I mean winner picking was damn easy, after the race.  Lagarde, Immortality & Forest flame were the contenders.  Lagarde had earlier won Ruia cup.  So no chance!  Whatever may be illogical or non sensical about such theories.  And, Immortality has beaten Forest flame earlier.  It is from top trainer and top jockey is astride.  No one should see beyond Immortality.  If bookies offered 3/1 then this is the time to salvage whatever one can.  A man can simply sell his house, his family jewels, wet lands and discounted his insurance policies and backed on Immortality to quadruple the amount in less than 10 minutes.

But, what happens actually?  People will play Immortality for place, Lagarde or Forest flame for win, Alluring silver for SHP etc.  

So, you may ask me what was my bet in the derby race?  

3,11,12/3,10,11,12/3,6,10,11,12 trinella 2 tickets.  Cost 540/-.  If I had taken the oaks cup result as pointer, I could have solved trinella in just 10/-.  Immortality, Forest Flame & Alluring silver!

That is the in built curse of a race punter.  Horses will show erratic form whenever one bets on the basis of past performance.  Or, horses will run in accordance with merit but the punters will be having their own doubts about jockeys allowing their horses to run on merit.  Pet theories, however stupid or non sensical will be strongly considered when absolutely unnecessary.  And  will be ignored when such theories prove right.  

All in all, money moves in only one direction; Towards bookies.

I think good number of punters were in profit yesterday.   Salazaar, Cosmic ray, Giant Star & enigma won.  Even Immortality had her followers in large numbers.  But, whether the punters are satisfied?  I have my own doubts.  

NO ONE EVER BETS ENOUGH ON THE WINNING HORSE.

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13 Replies

Raghavan said ...

01-Apr-2021

Godzilla,

In a race 35ps favorite and 30/1 fluke has same chance..at least theoretcally.

It is not easy to locate horses that place!  O K.  I felt that horses quoted at 4/1, 5/1 etc had nil chances to place in view of the stiff opposition that they are facing.  Well.  I am proved wrong.

However, I have stopped betting for either win or place long back. So no question of grumbling.

HP++

Suraj may not be interested on Stock bridge.  But, he did extremely well on the other two mounts.

Hp++ said ...

31-Mar-2021
STOCKBRIDGE. Suraj was just not interested in this ride

Kiran said ...

30-Mar-2021

I took jp for 480 ruppes in Paytm pass I took super jp with more intelligence with 160 missed becouse of 3 in third leg I take 47/5237/14//12/4/10  it's 11 k  here the fool in woke up if I just take like my jp I would get 11 k I got only 4800 for jp but total I won 10k a happy day for me as I able to catch last three winners I am following immotality from  hyd win thanks to track eagle he gave tip when it was 10/1   onemore centiment Bombay derbyvwinners always night odds will be9/2 I see same desertgod  warhammer and this I went to six derbies to watch miss this year

Pradeep Sethi said ...

30-Mar-2021

very very well said.totally agree.

Raghavan said ...

30-Mar-2021

Prasanna,

Not betting in terms race?  May be you are right.  Some say avoid betting  class V races.  Some says avoid betting in races where jockeys are not permitted whip.  I do not bet in races with 6 or less numbers of runners OR 13 or more number of runners!

Win legend,

Sad & boring derby?  Do not know what could have made derby interesting to you.  O K.  Agreed that the proceedings might be boring.  But, why are you telling this a sad derby?

720/- at HYD?  To me it looks a bit costly.  But, you could have invested another 720/- and purchased one more jackpot ticket with No-10 Enigma in the last leg.

King Koti,

I do not have any answer to your queries.  Race betting is not a one day affair.  In the normal times (that is without covid headache) there will be at least 270 days racing in a year in India.  So, one day's plus or minus can not make much difference.  But, generally I have seen punters betting 2k/5k etc on losers whereas their bet on winners is just 1k.  Some kind of invisible force will caution you to be careful paarticularly while betting on a winner.

Cruise_B'lore,

Yes.  Race betting is always a losing proposition.  But, among horsetalk members there is at least one who claims that he is a big big winner in race betting.  A goddamn lie.  But, try your best; you can not make them talk sensibly.

Prasanna said ...

29-Mar-2021

The best way to avoid losing money in horse racing is by avoiding betting on terms races..

Win Legend said ...

29-Mar-2021

A sad and Boring derby....

Win Legend said ...

29-Mar-2021

Mr.Raghavan

I took my Jackpot ticket for Rs 720 in the last Race my Banker was no 7 Jetfire.....,Last minute change of jockey from Imran khan to pp Dhebe....the horse was not spotted consolation paid @ HYD was Rs 333 overall a very dull and lack lustre derby day......

Cruise_b'lore said ...

29-Mar-2021

Hello folks,

Between noon and dusk of every racing day, many fortunes are lost and a couple made.

regds,
Cruise

King Koti said ...

29-Mar-2021

"NO ONE EVER BETS ENOUGH ON THE WINNING HORSE".

That's very true Mr.raghavan!

But when can a punter know it's enough? a) When he doubled his money or tripled his money in a single race day? b)When the punter is satisfied with his winnings?  c)when he lost and think it's all fixed?  d) or anything else?

 

 

 

Northern Dancer said ...

29-Mar-2021

Well written. Obviously a seasoned punter

Godzilla said ...

29-Mar-2021

raghavanji

Yesterday, all in form Horses have won and one should desist pointing out doubts.

We have not applied our mind, and most of them have given choices for longer odds only on presumption, including yours truly.

Resolute [a Bangalore mile winner carrying 57 kgs]...so won in the long distance Race with AK47.

SALAZAAR...I have ignored this horse, thinking Sandesh may not win and go against Suraj, who was facing suspension of 4 months on this horse.

COLUMBIAN .. Won justified......as the owners of SALAZAAR and Columbian, were sponsoring Indian Derby......

COSMIC RAY ...A Bangalore champion horse, again belonging to Indian Derby sponsor which became favourite and won......

IMMORTALITY GIANT STAR AND ENIGMA were favourites which all obliged.......

SUPREME WINNER .. may also be favourite.........

As such no malpractices were involved , favourites obliged in all Races barring one or two Races.

Therefore let us accept the results whole heartedly and stop grumbling. You cannot expect the placing of horses [as far Place bet is concerned] also go in your way..

If it occurs, the Bookies may not operate and only you and me will be  standing in the Race Course, seeing or staring each others face. 

I agree Yesterday was Day for Win seekers and not Place seekers. In Racing Chicken hearted guys cannot gamble and win.

Aahok said ...

29-Mar-2021

Hi mumbai races Trevor did not even win one ,all other jockeys got akshsy ,suraj ,ps,

Supringly lot of adjustment happen there off late ,samebtrainer horse on longer odds win usually 

They pass of gamble but never run horse on merit