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Do Punters Win?

By Raghavan | 03-Jun-2021

There are some good responses to my query "do bookies loose"?

Now, I am putting the most direct question.  "Do punters win"?  Let me see how many responses this will get.  Of course, the points that I have raised here are nothing new.  The same thing has been told by me several times.  People who have difficulty in going through long essays are requested to stop at this point itself.

A punter loses in 95% cases.  Liquor consumption & gambling are the two vices a man should avoid at all costs.   You all might have heard this in your "moral science class" when you are in 5th standard.  But, at least liquor consumption has limits.  If a man enters the bar with 50,000/- he can not take liquor for that entire sum.  There is a saturation point.  And, beyond that he can not consume.  HE WILL BE "OUT" after spending a portion.  He has to compulsorily walk out.  Else, the bar owners will ask their bouncers to handle the situation.

Whereas, no such restriction is seen in race betting.  One can enter with 40k, and may be left with few hundreds in just under 2 hours.

In race course,  at the end of the day, at least 15 to 25 punters will be depending on some strangers to buy them one cigarette, coffee or pay him bus charge.

Why punters lose? 

Favorites win on average 33% races.  If a punter is blessed by a miracle to bet on favorites only in those races where the favorites win, then his winnings will be simply in crores every year.  

But, a punter is normally  bullish on the losers only.  On winners he may bet 500/1000.  On losers his bets may be between 2000 to 5000.  The moment he enters the race course, he will be in the grip of that devil which will not release that grip till he walks out of the race course.  And, he will indulge in  rank indiscretion because of the invisible devil possessing him.

And the race punter may be Chartered accountant, software engineer, successful lawyer, business magnate.  Nothing will rescue him.  The bookie who may be intermediate drop out will tonsure him. 

We are often challenged by some crackpots that it is possible to win in races.  They will say that a tested betting strategy is a sure money spinner.  They will shout loudly so that every living ones on earth, heavens or netherworld  is able to hear.  BUT TAKE IT FROM ME.  THERE IS NO BETTING STRATEGY THAT GUARANTEES WINNING.

There are three types of punters.  (1) small, (2) medium & (3) elite. 

How much these elite punters bet is known only to God.  Ten lakhs? One Khoka (crore)?   Honestly I do not know.  But my 100 salutes to such punters (if they really exist) and equal number of salutes to the bookies who take such bets.  For the purpose of this post, they are fully eliminated.

Frankly, I can not understand why these punters haunt race course at all.  With the money that they possess, they absolutely need no additional money to support their life style.  Let them visit for entertainment, bet max 1000/-.  Why ten lakhs & khoka bets?  

For me elite punter is one who bets 10k to 50k on one horse.

The  small punters, are the ones whose bet size hardly crosses 500/1000.  Let us ignore those who bet 200/- & below.  They are least bothered about the losses.  Most of the time they do not bet on favorites.  So, every passed bet gives them modest dividends.  But, they lose more often and end up in loss.  They may not feel the impact of their loss for 1 or 2 years.  But, from 3rd year onwards, they will be in big big trouble.  Hand loan from parents, relatives & friends, co op society loan, bank loan, chit fund loan are the most common liabilities.  And, they may also start doing business with Shylocks & sharks who charge interest from 5% to 10% per month.  And God save them if they have housing loan or grown up daughters for marriage.

SMALL TIME PUNTERS  ARE LOSERS.

(2)  The medium level punters are those who bet 2200 to 5500 per race.  Normally these people bet with some justification.  They do not bet favorites blindly.  They do not bet long shots either.  If their bets fail, they will be able to reasonably explain why they fancied that horse.  Of course, their winning strike rate is not much to crow about.  They will encash one bet; and will be blinking with four , five or even six failed bets.

Needless to say, they also will be at same difficulty levels as small bettors.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL PUNTERS ARE LOSERS.

(3) Elite punters. Those who bet 10k to 50k or more per horse.  I fear these people most.  Because, if they fancy the horse which I also fancy, all my advises to fellow punters (to bet low & cut loss) is shot to hell.  On too many occasions I have staked 2k to 5k on such horses.  If I had not seen such heavy bet/s on that horse, my bets would be restricted to 500/1000.  Of course I have not lost all such bets.  Some bets used to click.  But, there were many failed bets.

Thanks to GST, my betting on win/place has been completely stopped.   It is almost 4 years.  Only forecast bets.  And trinella/exacta bets whenever there is c/f amount.  I normally keep a watch on c/f amounts.  Needless to say that my losses are barest minimum even though the strike rate is less than 15%.

Now, what about these elite punters.  They may be betting after careful study.  OR strong inside information.  But, bets from these people also fail too many times.

AND ELITE PUNTERS ALSO LOSE.

Now, let us be realistic in analysing punter's failure.

It is only bookies who win.  Sometimes modest.  Sometimes bag loads.  Punters have no chance.  Perhaps there may be some small number of lucky punters who are big winners in the long run.  I have absolutely no reason to view their winnings in isolation and come to some sweeping conclusions.  Of course my best wishes to them.  My 100 salutes to them.

The punters are big losers.  I mean big losers in the long run whether they are small time punters, medium punters or elite punters.  It is only bookies who gain handsomely in long run.  Of course let us not speak about those unlucky bookies who have vanished.

The banks give less than 7% interest on your deposits.  Whereas the bookies give 30 paise to 45 paise to even sure shot winners.  Suppose a highly disciplined punter bets on such horses only at measly odds.  Not one rupee bet at odds of 50ps or above.  Let us say there are 30 such horses in a year.  A punter who bets 50k on these 30 horses only will earn cool 4.5 lakhs.  Absolutely fantastic.  A 4.5 lakh profit on 50k corpus is something that Ambani, Adani, Tata, Jhunjhunwala, Warren Buffet etc will view with admiration and probably jealousy.   But race is a cruel sport.  Even such horses with cramped odds lose.  Such calculations will be impressive only theoretically.   A punter will learn many harsh lessons inside the race course.

So, 7% or still less.  Fixed deposits in the bank are the guaranteed money earners.  Of course there are instances of even banks going pauper.  But, a punter has no option.  He has to keep money only in bank.

But how can a punter say good bye to betting.  That is absolutely impossible.  Starts with one bet.  Then 2nd & 3rd.  Then he will be betting for years.  Till he reaches heaven.  In that case, what is the remedy?

Bet low.  Bet in lower number of races.  It is not a badge of honour to bet 5k, 10k or more.   Never bet as per the recommendation of stranger.  

CUT LOSSES.  If you intend to bet 2200/-, just wait for a while and think whether 1100 bet is not sufficient.  

If you start with a betting bank of one lakh, never bet more than 1% of your betting bank.  You can increase the unit bet to 2000/- only after doubling the corpus of one lakh.  If your betting bank drops to less than 50k, then bet 500/- only.  

You can eat your betting money; but never bet your eating money.  That means never bet the money that you require to pay emi on housing loan, children's education fees, or compulsory payments like house rent, current bill.  

Lastly, do not give any credence to crackpots who say they are regular winners and with their winnings they are going for picnic to moon every year.

Best advice:  QUIT RACING.  So simple.  But, we have learnt that simplest things are most difficult to achieve.  

IF RACE BETTING IS REALLY LUCRATIVE, THEN THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10 LAKH PUNTERS IN EACH RACE COURSE.

Post Your reply

57 Replies

Godzilla said ...

17-Jun-2021

buddy

I happen to see your post only today. Those were the days, we enjoyed Racing and discussions in HT thoroughly.

You, Vijay, Glasgow Prince, Indian Turf Record, Cruise_Bangalore, Vamanan, old Krish, and many more were around. Many famous names were not coming to my mind instantaneously. Those were golden days.

At one time, the debate from my side, Vijay and you touched more than 800 postings on a single write up, which was HT record of great number of responses.

I take your postings in a friendly way and reply. Our friendship will continue to remain, although we have not met each other personally.

Buddy said ...

13-Jun-2021

Godzy - was just being humorous - you know me from 25yrs from over here - flamboyant / brash  / blunt ..I know this subject well ....and guys here can surely benefit learn from my 'talks on racing'   ......you have income and control on your bets that is why you are still around ....not for your racing ideology ...having control matters/helps in all walks of life .....

Raghavan said ...

13-Jun-2021

Ayyarnet,

I never said that punters do not win.  There are punters who are real headache to bookies.  And there are several hundred instances of single passed tickets in jackpot, exacta.  Sometimes even trinella pool pays decent dividends to punters.  There must be a dozen instances where trifecta (that is corresponding to trinella pool here) has paid more than 2 crore yens to the successful ticket holder. (at Japan).

If all punters were winning like that on a regular basis, then bookies will not be seen within one mile radius of race course.  

But, I am against some people who try to point out such big winnings to argue that punters will regularly and consequently bookies lose on a regular basis.

Yes.  Even the dumbest fellow wins in horse races with less than 10% strike rate.   So a man with good racing knowledge wins too often with higher strike rate.  That is the tonic, booster absolutely necessary for every punter to keep his belief intact that he will one day win enough to clear all his problems.

But the problem every punter faces is they never bet maximum on a winner.  If their normal betting is 2200/-, they will bet 2200/- only on winners.  But on losers they bet 5500/- , 11000/- etc.  So in all probability they go home with loss eventhough they had their bet on 2 or 3 winners.

I have seen punters betting one lakh by splitting his bets with 3 or 4 bookies.  Some daredevil bookies may take bet of even two lakhs.  But generally bookies stick to their limit.  If punters are betting on a single horse they will keep on changing the odds for that horse.  A horse that opens up at 10/1 may end up with 3/1 during the closing stages.

Of course I have not seen crore betting.  The highest bet that I have seen in Rs. 5,00,000 (+50,000 tax)  bet by two punters on Be Safe in Invitation races.  

Common punters bet low and do not care a damn whether the horse they bet wins or loses.  They lose smaller amounts.  Of course such small losses also may add up to big big losses as years roll by.  

It is only medium bettors who regularly donate their hard earned money to bookies.  But, they have highest devotion towards bookies.  My posts on tax collected by bookies are disliked, down voted by many.

Elite bettors win or lose.  Every winner deserves highest congratulations.  But, my posts are never directed towards those el;ite punters.

Vijaykumar

I am thankful that you up-voted my post.   Some punters however are having much much higher knowledge than myself.  My best wishes to them.

 

Ayyarnet said ...

12-Jun-2021

Sri. Raghavan

Do  punter win at all !!!!! Million Dollar Question !!!

Nice question and interesting debate

I am  going to Races since Commanche won the Bangalore Derby

from the hot favorite Red Cocade.

My observation out of my experience I find Punters do win but they do not have the  ability to hold their winning stakes and lose in continuous betting.

Race Courses would  have been closed if Punters are not winning !!!!

We have Race Courses  existing for centuries.

Race clubs give in one hand and take away all with other hand.

Race going is like a Tooth paste tube. Once pressed can not be put inside !! However you try very difficult to get rid of addiction. 

I have seen punters investing a lakh but never heard of  crore investor 

and I am yet to see a Bookie with courage to accept a Crore betting.

Common punters are only playing small amount and they will always a loser because what they gain will only be a very small amount and they can not control their impulse and they will go on betting till their pocket is empty

and later they borrow or mortgabe their property etc just for playing at Races.

Do not underestimate the ability of Elite Punters. They do not bet all races and they will be having some connection also. Even if they lose they will not come to the street and they never depend on their income from Racing for their survival. They may be having good income oriented business. They do not break their head 24 hours on Races.

Middle class punters are rather updated or promoted punters like Horses !!!

Class IV to Class III then Class II and Class I depending on their ability to bet on selected Horses !!!

To sum up in order to survive in Races

You must have little basic education to distinguish Wrong and Right

You should not cross your boundaries and have responsibility to maintain  family etc.,  Bet only within the capacity.

Secondly  to be a punter you must have regular income to support you when you are down

I have survived after losing only !!!   Later I have understood the concept of Races. All Races are not conducted by merit   there are are many Fixed Races to filter Jackpot Tickets and support Bookies and to honour the patrons of the Clubs. Later I have adopted strategy to follow a winning stable and winning Jockey and not playing other Horses and developed the habit of watching races without playing. Even if I lose also I will consider my loss will be recovered very soon since the winning Jockey will win soon on other horses. 

With little sustained efforts I have recovered my losses and made little money also.

Thanks to Late Dr. MAM our Dr. Vijay Mallaya, Dhunji Bhai, Amita Mehra etc

Jockey V.Shinde, Karl Umrigar Jagdish , Aslam Khader, Late B.Prakash and now Trevor Foreign Jockeys Wally Swinburn, Terry Meckeon and many other talented jockeys affiliated to a particular Winning Stable and will not forget our Trainer R.R. Byramjee. Indeed unfortunate that his son did follow his father's foot print.

Regards to all

Ayyarnet

 

Raghavan said ...

12-Jun-2021

HP++,

I know.   They are always try to convince me that they are mega winners in horse race.   They know that I can not verify their bogus claims.  So, they think that they can effectively silence me with their bluffs, lies and half truths.

O K.  Let them try.  For your information, I will believe that the Sun rises in the West.  But,  I will never agree to their profit claims.  

Raghavan said ...

12-Jun-2021

Srinivas c

Oh!  You are a winner.  Very good.  I always admire those who tonsure bookies.  Of course, if you are also tote bettor like me, my double admiration.

So, you are surprised at myself being in loss for so many years!  Calm yourself.  My loss is barest minimum.  There are several thousand players who lose in one day much higher amount than what I lose in one month.

Raghavan said ...

12-Jun-2021

Buddy, 

Oh I see!  You only said that you can allot10k budget per race day, but would rather do........

Today, all punters who bet withy bookies will have minimum 10k budget.  Yours faithfully will be having 5000/- extra over and above what I intend to bet.

What you want to convey, could have been told without mentioning 10k.  Why are you stating that 10k will be stress free..10k budget does not mean 10k loss...one can win also...

 

Vijayakumar said ...

11-Jun-2021

"DO PUNTERS WIN ",  Raghavan sir as usual has posted a valuable topic. The inputs made by various HT members are quite interesting to read. 

              At this juncture when there are no racing activities in India, this topic keep all the HT members in touch with the royal sport which will enable them to attend races with fresh ideas as and when the horse ra cing resumes.

        As the intensity of the covid19 sub sides considerably in India and lock down stipulations are being relaxed in several states, we may expect resumption of horse races very shortly.

          So punters be happy. 

Srinivas C said ...

11-Jun-2021

Raghavan sir ur righting is so awesome ur well educated past before 40 years back can earn more than a lakh but if u know a trick can win easily in race . I don't know y ur still blind in race . Buddy knows wat race is . I think he lost before but he got lot of experience lik I know . Race is only for educated and we'll learning. . M easily winning money after I lost from 7 years , , 

Hp++ said ...

11-Jun-2021

Raghavan

 you are trying to convince adament people out  here.

You can never win here.They will tell yu tht the sun rises in the west and will make yu believe it

Buddy said ...

10-Jun-2021

Looks like I might have to do a few more postings till its given a closure - look I come on raacing sites because this is the life i have lived and I have my tab/net connection with me most of the time - I come here and stop for months also  -free bird - does not mean I bet - betting means putting myself in prison-all the time planning/plotting my bets - I have served my time ...free now.

Buddy said ...

10-Jun-2021

Raghu- 4.32  time 'do bookies lose is correct -date is 28th may -but thats ok - whats not okay is you did not read it carefully -' i said i would rather do other sport stuff then back 10 grand and do race betting'visit that spot again. Now you should in your mind think you do twist peoples statement atleast mine you have done numouros times - now you caught your own wrong doing - happens.

Raghavan said ...

10-Jun-2021

Ab-Delhi,

Your 8/6/21, 10.10pm

You appear to believe profit claims.  You have evry right.

It seems you do not like queries regarding assets of any punter.  You see, I have not made any queries about your assets.  So, only the person about whom I have enquired should ask my locus standi.

Even the smartest will not be able to solve the racing puzzle.  100% agree.

"One will not survive even few months"!  I am happy with my performance (OR non performance if you prefer that way) for 35 years.  

"If bookies do mischief, turf club supervisors should question them!"   You are entitled to your views.  I am entitled to my views.

 

Raghavan said ...

10-Jun-2021

Buddy,

You have stated:  "My betting amount was asked by people like you; so it was okay for me; I gave it; now it is used against me"!

I have not asked.  I am sure about that.  However we are talking to each other for the past 5 years at least.  So, it is absolutely impossible to find out who asked you.  Only thing there was no need on your part to disclose your betting amount.   You should have flatly refused,

O K.  You disclosed.  And, you were taking pride all these years about your high end betting.  Today you are complaining that I am using it against you!  I do not know what to say.

I am asking you details of assets.  Of course, I can not verify that.

But, why are you so shy to disclose that?  Just two or three lines:  For eg you can say that (1) I own a 2000 sq ft flat costing so much crores at so and so area in Pune/Mumbai or wherever you reside.  (2) In bank locker  I have 3 or 4 kilogram of gold.  (3) I own other assets worth so many cr.

What difficulty is there.  If you own more than one flat,, just mention that.

A punter who bets one lakh, two lakhs, five lakhs, ten lakhs etc with reputed bookie, decent bookie and good bookie and taking home double or treble that amount on a daily basis for years together should have assets worth 20 crores at least.  (even after granting that you lost entire 5 crores cash balance) and took retirement.  

And the assets should be worth 20 cr about 5 or 6 years back.  Not present value.  

And at Mumbai/Delhi people with 20 cr asset are dime a dozen.

Raghavan said ...

09-Jun-2021

Raj,

"Punters win after experience"

Well.  Most of the punters will be eternally gaining experience!  

"Punters should have resources to regain the losses"

Mostly those resources are also wasted on gaining knowledge and super knowledge.  My advise to those lucky punters who have resources:  quit punting.   They can lead their life quite decently with their resources.   I subscribe to the theory  "a rupee lost is lost for ever".  Perhaps I am wrong.  My advises are definitely not binding on anybody.

"Why do you want such answers"?

You see, for the past  8 or 9 years  I am speaking against 10% bet by bookies.  My writings have not stopped the 10% bets.  But, there are some punters who react angrily.  Their anger, hysterical comments etc might have some side effect on blood pressure in respect of those punters only.  I have received such replies in plenty in 8/9 years.  Absolutely no worry.    People think that other horse talk members will appreciate their knowledge.  Why should I bother?   Let them show off their motormouths.

Raghavan said ...

09-Jun-2021

Buddy,

Refer to your post dated 8/6/21.  5.20 pm.  You have asked "where I have said that I will bet 10 grand".. You emphatically deny ever making such statement.  And you say you don't bet in any type of gambling.

Now just revisit  the thread "do bookies lose" started by me and see what you have written on 2/6/21, 4.32pm.  

I thought you are betting with 10k budget every race day..a big climbdown from your earlier betting of several lakhs per horse.  Winning some bets & losing some bets.  It is no body's case that you always lose.  Even Reserve Bank of India can not survive the onslaught of bookies if it decides to bet and lose every bet.

Betting 10k per race day means betting 1000 or 2000 per horse.  I thought that with such low betting you can as well claim that you have retired.  In fact, even I can claim that I have taken retirement.  My betting generally do not exceed 1k/2k for full day.   If you can not bet even that much because bookies have administered sledge hammer blow on you, then I am extremely sorry.

But  why talk of race budget per race day, per race horse etc. if  you are spending time by interacting with sport inclined people.  Certainly there was no necessity to bring in  "10k budget per race day"! 

You are calling me "twister"!  This is not the first time you are calling me that.  Avoid talking to a "twister".  However, if you must talk, you could do so by avoiding all the words/lines that may confuse a "twister"!

Of course, I have interacted with many people like you.  Who have lost every last rupee in betting.  Costs me one or two coffee.  Chaltha hai.  To be fair, it is not always one way traffic.  Even those elders pick up the bill once in three or four days. 

But, they are people who gracefully accept the harsh realities of race betting.  They never mention 10k bets.  Of course, they bet 100/200/300 etc during the early days of month.  When they draw their pension.  

But they are happy.  In spite of running short 20+ days in a month.  Their children are well settled.  Earning decent package.  You spend time with interacting with sport inclined people.  I spend time interacting with such softened bettors.  

You are saying that you have taken retirement.  My inner ear have been  exploded by continuously hearing about your "retirement" from betting so many times.  People who are actually retired from betting do not visit racing site every day.  That too when no racing is there in any part of India.

Buddy said ...

09-Jun-2021

Raghu- have just enough - look i'll repeat its about the graph from nothing to something - that to from a risky business - i do have plans but nothing to do with gambling or anything risky - simply put i made some money in racing -my bets were big from average standard but then one incurs losses too - alls well that ends well - now that you gave your details does not mean anything -you can dance without your clothes does not mean others will follow.

Buddy said ...

09-Jun-2021

Raghu- about my bets and what i have you had asked me that many time and a few times i even answered - you are asking me time and again looking for discrepencies - just move on get on to the tote Q ....    I would never reveal my bets or financial position on my own--Raghu you asked many times thats why i revealed some of my personal matters-  

Raj said ...

09-Jun-2021

Mr.Ragavan yes we all hve enough time during these pandemic period and you especially..

Why do you want such answers it's universally known fact punters will always win after loses and experience..

Puters should hve resources to regain the losses which includes everything..

Raj

 

Ab-delhi said ...

08-Jun-2021

99 percent of the punters are betting with the bookies. Whether they are doing wright or wrong is for the authorities to decide. Were to play is an individual choice but to target others why they are playing on bookies and not on tote and not paying taxes is absolutely wrong.people should stick to the topic and not target others aur boost of there wealth here. They May be millionair or billionair who is bothered.you May have 40 years of experience in race course but if you cant win it is of no use. Racing is not like other gambling. If you treat it as gambling you will not survive for not more than few months. You will end up selling your house and jewellary. Racing will test every aspect of you personality.Take it as a challange , it is like a puzzle which even the smartest and most intellegent of people on the earth will not be able to solve. Even einstein will fail in racing. If somebody can win regularly in racing  then he is certenly very very smart. And if somebody claims so then we should believe him. Winning is important not the horse you play. You play a 30 paisa place or 10/1 win doesnt matter as long as you are winning. I have seen people laughing at people who play short price horses.

Godzilla said ...

08-Jun-2021

buddy

Your reading of my write up is wrong. I meant no offence to Raghavan sir. 

I only wrote about my way of betting and reading Races.  I have not taught about Racing to Raghavan sir.  I am surprised you have interpreted my writing in your own style. 

Raghavan said ...

08-Jun-2021

Buddy,

Tote players may be more intelligent than you in any field other than racing.  In that case, bet as per the dictates of your intelligence and amass big fortune.  

But, do not belittle tote players.  Certainly they are not asking from you even one hundred ruppes to bet at tote.

I am asking list of bungalows, cars, gold etc only to check whether you really won astronomically in races.  I have disclosed mine with expectation that you will reciprocate.   If you have won heavily in races, you must be having assets to substantiate your claim.  One big portion you lost to bookies.  O K.  What happened to the balance?  Do not come with silly explanation that the money was used to finance education of son.  

Do not repeat a lie hundred times hoping that others will believe it.

Raghavan said ...

08-Jun-2021

Buddy,

I never ask any punter what is his bank balance or what is his net worth.  You only mentioned that you were betting average 75k.  You only said that you purchased property, invested your winnings and the balance cash you lost. I am asking what are your movable & immovable assets?  If you have no desire to disclose those things to an outsider, you should in the first place not bragging about your high bets and still higher returns.

You only said that you had credit accounts with multiple bookies.  You only said that bookies were discharging their liability to you but were heartily allowing you carry forward your liabilities indefinitely.

And, when I ask one direct question, you seem to be aggrieved.

My questions stand.  I hope you will reply it.  Let it be just one flat. or one old Indian model car or 1/2 kg gold.  I want answer. 

Or simply admit that you are also like any other punter.  A big big loser at that.  That you stopped betting after bookies tonsured you completely.  Your philosophical bluffs does not fool anybody.  And your win claims does not impress anybody.

You are telling that the world as it stands today belongs to next generation people.  And you can answer me only the questions like what is the colour of your loincloth.  Not regarding your net worth. 

In that case stop questioning my intellect, wisdom etc.  Do not worry whether I bet 300 or 500 at tote.  I do not care a damn whether I win or lose.  My strike rate is less than 15%.  But, I am happy.   You say betting with bookies is more profitable.  Then no one stops your betting with bookies only.  Do not care to guide other punters.  

And the final word.  NO BODY HAS WON AT RACES.  I will scream this universal truth from every roof top.  I know there are exceptions.  Like Rajinder Krishna.  Or the one who won 97 lakhs jackpot.  My 1000 apologies to those who have won and tonsured the bookies.  

But Buddy is not a winner.   He is a loser. Chanakya is not a winner.  He is also a loser.  Both Buddy and Chanakya are the two best friends who cheer each other's win claims.

Raghavan said ...

08-Jun-2021

Buddy,

So I am not intellectual.  I am not knowledgeable.  You want me to read racing books and gain intelligence & knowledge.  

And you are qualifying your statement with "not my advice". 

Let that fellow who said these may be Vasishta, Vishwamitra, Brihaspathi or Parashurama.  I am not interested.  And, I will not enen try to gain any new knowledge.  With the KG level stuff that I command, there are some horsetalk members who are acknowledging that my posts are good.  That much is more than sufficient.  It seems you are under the impression that if you contribute any essays to horsetalk, there will be appreciation pouring from all over India & abroad.  You are welcome to try.

Buddy said ...

08-Jun-2021

Raghu- your keep twisting my statemenrt -its a habit with you ,not the characteristics of a dependable man - down below you say ' so now you play only 10 grand no problem' where have i said that - I don't bet [any kind of gambling] come now eveything is fresh here show everone the thread ,where I said i play 10 grand , you wont be able to .

Ab-delhi said ...

08-Jun-2021

The biggest question that was asked was are punters winning or can punters win. Raghavan sir as you agreed that some bookies , what ever May be the reason do loose like wise some punters do win. What is that percentage I dont know. Most of the punters dont understand racing and are always running behind others. There are many tippers who guarantee you to win but will look for some excuse after the race.. Every punter must understand no other person can make you win. If some body can really win why he will tell others , if somebody is trying to guide others that means he himself cant win.

80 percent of money in racing flows on first three horses. Favourite for win and other two for place. Flukes can never make you rich in racing. Concentrate on these three either to lay or to play . bookies are also minting money on theses three horses. Fav that cannot lose on all parameters will loose and second fav that cannot be placed out will not hit the board that is the crux of racing . and the answer for this puzzle is in the bookie odds  . 

Raghavan said ...

07-Jun-2021

Godzilla,

Mostly punters bet on favorites and lose heavily.  That too in the 7th race & 8th race of the day (last two races of the day), there will be a mini stampede in the final minutes.  People who bet 1100/2200 etc per horse will bet 5500/11000 in those two races.  Of course, if the favorite wins, they will be smiling.  But their desperation is definitely not known to those favorite horses.

You have said about two punters who are examples of riches to rags.  My office supervisor, who was having a big house in his name had to sell it for about 85 lakhs (distress sale)  whereas the market value of that house was in the range of one crore.   Why he sold that house for hefty discount?  He was in big debt trap.  He had no other option;  well.  He shifted to rented house.  Now he is no more.

Another fellow, in his late seventies now, inherited 1.5 acre agricultural land which he converted to 32 sites after getting approval for conversion.  Today he owns just 2 sites.  (Lost 30 sites).  The present market value of those 30 sites is 45+ cr.  But, there are some crackpots who question my statement and proclaim they are big big winners.  O K.  If they get some kind of a pleasure in questioning me let them do that by all means.  But, can't they maintain dignity while talking to me?  Speaking like street rowdies!

Buddy said ...

07-Jun-2021

Someone who calls you 'sir' is teaching you how to win in races , learn sir - first you have to be an intellucutal second -only for people with level head -third you have to be knowledgble - so after 40yrs in racing still on tote try to have - Level head -get some knowledge - read some racing books gain intelligence - not my advice. 

Buddy said ...

07-Jun-2021

You are asking how many houses size of my house ,cars mercedes benz etc = you are also disclosing your's [no one asked]- people who live in my complex have had money from genarations passed down the line [father/grandfather] mine is selfmade - its only the graph that matters - now its my childrens time to take it futher - if you want i'll tell you what brand my inner wear is - you will get the gist from that.

dear editor please let this thru - nothing offensive realated to the question asked.

Buddy said ...

07-Jun-2021

Raghu- you are wrong = time and again I have said betting small is better then betting big -I have seen big bettors suffering more then small bettors - my point is big or small bookies are better then tote - my betting amounts was asked by people like you so it was okay for me I gave it now it is used against me - saying I am showing off - same way now you are asking for my bank balance 'how many property i own'   trying to find something to use against me later ...so stop being sly .

Buddy said ...

07-Jun-2021

Raghu- tote players might be more intelligent then me [most of them] and in all other subjects - but in racing to bet on the tote is a faulty thought process -and all those exotic pools - tanala etc ... less said the better. I was fortunate to be in the right circle .

Raghavan said ...

07-Jun-2021

Godzilla,

That trick of doubling the bets after every bet sounds unbeatable betting strategy.  I had tried that.  Of course long long ago.  My unit bet was 20/- then.  So, bets of 40, 80 & 160 was well within my capacity.  I was catching a winnerin 2nd attempt,  mostly in 3rd attempt or at worst 4th attempt.

I however lost the nerve when the 4th bet also failed.  The next bet should be 320/- .Somewhat jittery.   After aboput three such flops, I dropped the idea.  

The trick is o k if lady luck is smiling at you. Coming to your betting method, your 4th bet will be 10k  (presuming 3 bets fail) & 5th bet 20k.  A tall order as far as I am concerned.  Anyway if you are comfortable with that method, by all means pursue it.  You are a very senior punter and definitely can decide yourself which horse to bet, how much to bet etc.  

As of now, if anyone asks me whether increasing/ doubling the bet amount after every failure is the right approach,  my reply will be "I do not know".  

Post script:  I hope you completely recovered from the virus attack?

Buddy said ...

07-Jun-2021

Raghu - There are more the 50% of people with more net worth then me in just my society - who cares - I am only concerned with my graph - from nothing to something. 2]What and how much I have ? how will you verify whatever I say - my graph is good ,health is good .3]I never paid tax on my gambling money but in a irregular way you do end up paying when investing 4] I am not against small bettors, its the thought process it shows a illlogical thought process wagering without a plan -in the initial state ok -but after 40yrs still there and giving gyan does not match.

Godzilla said ...

07-Jun-2021

raghavan sir

My way of playing is .. If I lose 1k on a horse, I used to double it up and play 2k on next race  horse....If I lose 2k also, I used to play 6k in the next bet...If I make a single win, immediately I quit betting for the day..My bets are usually on longer odds and as such out of Racing, I made good money....

I made lot of money at odds 10/1 and above. A big list is there with me....

Mostly gamblers go after favourites and lose heavily...Then madness enter their mind and play as if there is no tomorrow and then vanish from the scene...

I know a good business man, who wanted to make fast buck...ended up pauper and now he is  leading a useless life...

One stainless Steel vessels supplier, who does not knew a b c d about Racing, started playing heavily on Races and squandered all the assets and bank balance...Now he is begging in front of the temple at Mylapore and even if someone gives a tenner to him, one could see the smile on his face. Crazy guys..

Racing is not meant for the people without knowledge......Its a Royal Sport meant for intellucutals only who can read the Races properly and play with level head.... 

Raghavan said ...

07-Jun-2021

Buddy,

I fully agree with you that you gambled at highest level.  Your average bets were 75k per horse in race.  I think I can bet three months at least with that 75k.  Of course, your bets on occasions were several lakhs on the horse that you liked.

But, what I can not understand is your questioning a tote punter.  I bet 500 or less.  Sometimes 1000.  There are many tote punters who bet 1000/500 or below.   I am one among them.  But, you want to take pride in betting in lakhs and highlighting that aspect with a tote man.  Highly surprising.  I woner whether you are also tote player and pretending to be high end bettor.

There are people with much higher net worth than you.  Aamir Khan, Salman Khan, Sundar pichai, Jhunjhunwala, warren buffet etc.  So, you are also not unique.  You are only an ordinary bettor like me.  Amitabh bachchan purchased 31 cr flat recently.  Sachin Tendulkar's net worth may be 1000 cr.  When billionaires are dime a dozen at Mumbai/Delhi etc, whom you want to impress with your net worth details?  

Betting hobby is personal to the punter.  Whether he bets 10/- or 10 lakh rupees is left to the punter concerned.  So stop belittling tote punters.

I have asked you to disclose the tax you paid on winnings in card games and horse race bets.  I am a tote player no doubt; but advise me about the negative aspects in tote betting if and when I ask you loan of 500. 

With my earnings, I should have been proud owner of at least one site in  BNG in addition to the flat I am residing.  On the contrary, with your winnings, you should be owning at least 2 flats of 2000 sq ft each in both Mumbai & Pune.  Give me list of properties you are owning, mercedes benz that is in your possession etc.   OR how many kilograms of gold is in your possession.  Of course, you lost big and took retirement and betting only 10k per race day after retirement.  But, I am asking you about your astronomical bets and wins before taking retirement.

Raghavan said ...

07-Jun-2021

Buddy,

"you talk in proper tone; I will share my experience in proper tone"!

I have stated that I would like to hear the tax paid by you on winnings from cards, winnings from horse race.  You are talking about tone and tenor!

"A toteman has no credentials to teach me on this subject".

Oh I see.  I have no credentials.  But, do you have credentials to question me?  You asked me about tax paid on card winnings.  I tossed back the question to you.  If you have credentials, then I also have.  If I do not have credentials then you also do not have.

Raghavan said ...

07-Jun-2021

Hussain bhai,

Some bookmakers have vanished without a trace!   Some bookies are now condemned to work on daily wages.

Quite possible. But I am repeatedly saying that such bookies may constitute about 2%.  My sympathies are with them.

In the current environment, one can easily become bookie based on  IT returns & bank statements.  This was in sharp contrast with situation in yesteryears.  Well.  I have no desire to start new career as bookie.  

Your talks revolve round those hapless bookies.  I am speaking as per my understanding that it is not possible for a punter to win in races.  Both may be correct.  OR both may be wrong!

Ab_Delhi,

The entire racing industry is dependent on punter's money to survive.  The bookies, the trainers, owners, jockeys, the turf club employees, the turf club management etc depend only on punter's money.  So,  it is Herculean's task for a punter to beat all these hawks.  There may be some punters who still manage to win handsomely.  My best wishes to those lucky punters.

My understanding is,  a punter loses his hard earned money on a regular basis.  Of course every theory has some exceptions.

"Bookies who behave as a punter will lose.  Otherwise, bookies never lose".  I agree with you.

Buddy said ...

06-Jun-2021

you say 'not evaded tax liability from card and race bets - Your level of betting on top of that self proclaimed loser -you are not even eligible to pay tax - now let me tell you the cardclub owners never lose on a weekly basis -so they are winners all the way they too dont pay tax - they evade tax just like race bookies , how come you play cards there -look I don't have any grudge against you - but i wont back down ..this is what I have seen, done -all my life ...gambling at the higest level , biggest bookies - card /cricket /races . so a toteman does not have the credentials to teach me on this subject. No love or hate over here if you talk with proper tone i'll share my experience with proper tone.

Ab-delhi said ...

06-Jun-2021

RAGHAVAN SIR it is not impossible to win in races but certenly very difficult. See there are four set of people involved in racing first is the club , second are the owners , third are the bookies and fourth are the punters. It is the punter who brings in money . The first three ie the club , the owners and the bookies are in on group. Either the punter will win or this group will win. If somebody has to win then he will have to beat this group which is very difficult.only those bookies will lose who start behaving as a punter other wise bookies will never lose. 

Hussain said ...

06-Jun-2021

@Raghavan Sahab,

                                     You will always find some stalls empty in bookmaker rings as there are no takers at all.If you apply for a bookmaker license you will get it within 10-15 days subject to your IT returns and bank statements.

My point is bookmakers come and go also without any trace.I know few bookmakers in Kolkata who all after default ing in bookmaking business now works on daily wages in Kolkata race course What went wrong for them?

With due respect to your point of view what I want to say that bookmakers are not INVINCIBLE.

I recall a dialogue from Ram Gopal Verma's Movie  COMPANY which is applicable for racing world. "Yahan jiski nazar game se hathi,uska game baj jaata hai

Raghavan said ...

06-Jun-2021

Buddy, 

So what I write is KG stuff.  Right.  You are welcome to contribute Phd level reserch thesis.  Anyway thanks for dignifying my post with your reply.

You are asking about my tax liability in card games.  Well.  First, I would like to hear how much tax you have paid on your card winnings & horse race winnings.  Of course, be assured that I have not evaded my tax liability either in cards or races.  

Raghavan said ...

06-Jun-2021

IIM blue,

Bookies are cheating the Government and that is as clear as daylight.  They are getting away with impunity is a different matter.  Surely, the turf club authorities are corrupt and receive mamool from the bookies. 

Bookies are occasionally taught the provisions of law & the might/strength of the Government in harsh manner.  At Bangalore, the stalls were closed for many race days during 2019-20 winter.  Bookies were caught red handed by the police/vigilance department.  Similarly 30+ bookies or their assistants at Pune were rounded up during December 2020.  At Mumbai during Dec 2018, about 18 bookies were arrested and were compelled to stay in lock up for several days before getting bail.

It is heartening to note that there are some no non sense police officers still in service.  

What happened to bookies/assistants thereafter I do not know.  I shall be very much thankful if you are having any updates and willing to share with horsetalk members.

Why so many bookies stall is vacant?  I do not know.  If you can think of any possible answer, then you are welcome to answer that question yourself.  I only speak about the bookies who are present.   

You are asking me to try online betting.  Thanks for the advise.  But, I am not interested.  I am interested in questioning  the bookies for their illegal acceptance of bets at 10% and you as well as other punters are welcome to defend them.  Of course, the bookies may dismiss my views with contempt.  Absolutely no problem.

"Why blame racing if your betting strategy is all wrong"?  This is an unfair question from you.  When I have blamed racing for my loss?  Do not make silly comments  that are based on wrong assumptions.  

I question BTC because they are charging 250/- & 500/- as entrance fees.  The entry fees were 20/50 earlier.  You are having no problem on that count.  Well.  All five fingers are not of the same size & shape.  

Hp++ said ...

06-Jun-2021

Serjeant at arms.  The odds were 25ps.

Sandesh rode that race.As the race started it was evident from the start that it was to be a dud.

Just imagine there was no enquiry

Raghavan said ...

06-Jun-2021

Hussain,

Not 1 or 2.  Even 4/5 book makers may stay absent on a continuous basis.  Why?  I do not know the answer.  Probably, they did not stick to book maker's job alone.  They might have donned the role of punters also.

The main point that I underline is bookies do not lose.  It is only the punters who liberally pay their donation to bookies.

Well.  There may be exceptions.  Bookies also might lose.  Only thing, I have not come across such losers.  

Raghavan said ...

06-Jun-2021

HP++,

Well said.  

I remember one punter betting 50k on a champion horse Serjeant at arms.  The odds were 25ps.  There were 5 runners, but 3 horses were quoted 15/1 or more.  The only other horse with semblance of chance was Ice glacier (6/1).  The race was at Mysore.

Well 25 ps horse lost!

IIM Blue,

Punters lose not only shirts.   They lose even their loin cloth!  Of course I do not bet on election outcome or on cricket.

Iimblue said ...

05-Jun-2021

Mr.Raghavan ,

Your hatred for bookies and half tax punters , has made you declare war against wrong parties.These activities are well known to the club officials and tax authorities.If the Club  & tax authorities wish they can stop half tax betting in no time!.What stops authorities from installing CCTV cameras in the betting ring?.Why the taxmen can not be stationed in the betting ring , when there is large scale evasion ?

Mr.Raghavan ,your problem is you are playing mainly exotic pools(that too multiple tickets for the same combination) , a sure recipe to lose money.Why blame racing if your betting strategy is all wrong.!!

Then , you shun online betting and blame BTC for increasing gate money.!Surely you should stay at home and try your hand in online betting  !!

If bookmaking was such a lucrative profession, why number of stalls in BTC  1 st enclosure came down from 24 to 16.??There were no takers for these 8 stalls even when bookies were cleared from 2 nd enclosure.Bookies are as good or as bad as punters.No need to arrogate ectraordinary powers to them !

Buddy said ...

05-Jun-2021

Raghu- 40+ yrs back you started with tote now even 40yr s later you are still on tote ,lost /losing continuing no problem your life your money -  after 40yrs you are asking kindergarte/ child like questions - 'are there winning punters,losing bookies' - toteman in the first year one learns all that -  so many here do wah wah when you give your racing gyan ...wonder how rhey will end up clapping to a person like you... 40yrs ...still in KG.

Raghavan said ...

04-Jun-2021

Srinivas c

There is no formula to win in races.  You say, there is such formula but it takes a long time to learn.

I have nothing against bookies.  They win.  Let them win.  But, let them collect & pay gst. 

If punters bet blindly, then the responsibillity for loss should be squarely on their shoulders only.

Capitol risk,

You prefer online betting.  O K.  Good luck.  But, I do not bet online.  

 

Hussain said ...

04-Jun-2021

Hi Mr Raghavan,

                                 Totally agree with you,if horse racing is lucrative than there should be lakhs of people in every race course.

Please tell me,why there are always 1-2 bookmakers stall always empty in almost every race course?.

I mean if it is really so lucrative business for bookie than there should not be any empty  bookmaker stall at all.Any prosperous business man can become bookie and mint money and that also in lakhs per day.

Mr Raghavan,horse racing is a cruel game and it's for survival of the fittest.

If anybody is feeling the heat he should get out of the kitchen,that's my advice to them.

In my 27 years of horse racing career what I have learned that you can only be an absentee in racing but cannot quit it !!

Raghavan said ...

04-Jun-2021

IIM Blue,

"Raghavan's arguments are lengthy, predicable & repetitive".  Well.  Precis writing was never my strong point in college days.  And things have not at all changed even after so many years. 

In any case, I think I have mentioned that I am repetitive & asked people who are having problems with long essays to stop further reading.

"I am extrapolating my own experience with entire community".  What can be said about this comment?  Every punter loses.  I speak from my experience.  There will be not much variation  in my narrative if I speak with experience of another punter. 

There may be some punters who silently pocket their profit.  My best wishes to them.  

But, overall race bettors get pounded at race course.  I am asking punters to bet low.  One person may agree with me & 50 may disagree with me.  Absolutely no problem.  

"I am amazed at the skill of some punters who solve jackpot & exacta"

Right.  We have one rajinder Krishna who solved 48 lakhs jackpot.  Some exacta pools at BTC have paid 2 lakhs, 3 lakhs & more.  My letter is addressed to hapless souls who download their cash balance to bookies & tote on a daily basis.  It is only cautioning those punters.  My 100 salutes are always reserved for winners.  But, there must be several thousand jackpot/exacta bettors & may be just 2 or 3 win in lakhs.  

In race betting among punters there will be 2% winners & 98% losers.   Similarly 2% bookies lose and 98% bookies win. My posts are mainly addressed to those who are losers.

"Bookies do not care what I am writing"!  Well.  There are many mouth pieces among punters who fiercely defend bookies.  Bookies are cheating Government & I point out that.  If for some punters such writings are not digestible, then that is their problem.

Hp++ said ...

04-Jun-2021

do punters win?

Just one line shud suffice..

 EVEN if yu had just two horses in every race one will always end a loser in gambling

Buddy said ...

04-Jun-2021

 tote doctor spent his life on card and tote gambling- 30+ years on tote -now wonders if there are winning punters and losing bookies - toteman answer this you were card gambling did you pay tax - or does the card club owners ever pay tax - please dont say you went to bangalore club ,bowring club by now everyone knpws you dont fit in that category ..... people there know there are winning punters and losing bookies ...and no cardplayer pays tax on his winnings.......hypocrite toteman. you wont be able to fool even your granddaughter with your kind of resume.

Buddy said ...

04-Jun-2021

Raghu-  ex regular card gambler tote player - resume -gambler - 30 + years experience - never even heard of punters winning or bookies losing - because spent my full carrier standing in tote Q - very principled man will not allow anyone to cheat or lie that is only raghu's prerogative.

Answer this do card club owners pay tax -do the winning punters there ever paid tax - I know there were many many card rummy regular gamblers who made money after win & loss were always on the plus side ,monthly basis -did you pay tax when you won there -maybe you did......

Capital Risk said ...

04-Jun-2021

Raghavan Sir

Very nice write up.

Now things are changing and will have to go for Online betting. It will be good for Small as well as medium punters to some extent  instead of going and taking unecessary inputs from others  It is saving much time and energy. Now everything you bet through online. 

Srinivas C said ...

03-Jun-2021

Sir very true wat u said , but there is some formula to win races but to learn it will take long time , till then punters lose I think it is better to learn and play, that is not possible coz they trust on good jockeys and play blindly , yes they do win so they continue to playing with less knowledge , But winning is always on bookie side , for example let's think in a race 10 horses are running most punters play only favourite or second favourite remaining 8 horses on bookie side so their winning chances are high

Iimblue said ...

03-Jun-2021

By now Mr.Raghavan's arguments have become too predictable and too lengthy.He dislikes bookies but he uses the same bookie odds to bet more and lose more !.He has challenged the bookies to come forward and answer him, but obviously they care neither his bet nor his argument.They have more pressing problems.

If the connections are betting , they will bet with the same bookies .Here there can be many sureshots and they bet big.Now bookies have to share the risk with other bookies , who in turn have to entice the unsuspecting punters to bet on non winning horses .I donot envy the bookies.Many punters tried their hand by trying to become bookmakers and checked out in double quick time.

  Does a punter make profit?.Here again ,Mr Raghavan is extrapolating his own experience to entire community and come to a conclusion.I am amazed at the skill of some punters in solving Exotic Pools including Jackpot and Exacta.The percentage of pools that are carried over is less than 5% , which means someone or the other are passing them routinely and making money.In an ideal situation of tote monopoly , good punter makes money at the expense of bad punters ! It is a zero sum game.

Betting is a vice.Why there are less number of punters ? Because racing needs investment in terms of time and skill.That is why IPL betting and Election betting are more popular.Here probability of win is 50% , yet the bettors lose their shirts !

Satpal said ...

03-Jun-2021

I play races for fun and whenever i loose i say this is entertainment tax and get happy but my limit is 2000 per day