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Strike Rate Roi

By Raghavan | 25-Jul-2021

On the subject I have mentioned, there was a recently a post & several responses.

So, I leave it to your judgement.  To either treat this as a new post or a supplementary post.

According to me, strike rate & ROI can be calculated only in business.  A man doing business in a particular product will assess the market trend and ensure that the production matches the off take.  The selling price of his product is normally stable so also his production costs.

In race betting, such an idea is totally misplaced.  Because the betting volume is different & the odds at which one bets is also different.

So, a punter who enjoys a high strike rate of 50+ may end up in loss if all his winners are at odds 75ps or less. 

On the other hand, even with a lower strike rate, a punter will be a winner if he is winning at decent odds.  (say 2/1 to 6/1). 

And there are punters who bet much higher than what they desired at the beginning.  Take the case of a punter who loses in three days around 12 bets of 1100/- each.  And assume his 13th bet will be 5500 or 11000 on a horse quoted 2/1 or 3/1.  If that bet passes, he will be in profit even though his strike rate is less than 8%.

Of course there are very small number of tote punters who bets just Rs. 20/- to Rs. 50/- in a race.  But, they bet on horses that is showing high returns.  They may win 1 or 2 bets in a season.  But, that is sufficient to wipe out their loss to a substantial extent.

There are several 100s of examples where there will not be even one single bet on the winner and the bookie pockets all bets.  For eg, Lorena won at HYD on 15/3/2021 and tote paid 819/- for a tenner (at BTC).   There are too many instances of forecast pool paying 5k or above for a tenner. A punter winning big exacta or big jackpot may be a winner even though his strike rate may be  just 1 out of 200.

My argument is in race betting what counts is volume of your bet/s & where the horse you fancied to win (or place) finished.  Strike rate, ROI, market trend etc are the factors that have absolutely no relevance in gambling.

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