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Selections Under Horse Racing System

By Dharmesh | 30-Dec-2023

My selections under Horse racing systems : 

Big concessions

Rules:

In handicap races only, select the horse that gives the largest weight differential between a top and a second-top weight. Should there be joint qualifiers, there will be a bet on each. 

Logic:

The horse at the top of the handicap is officially rated as the best horse in the race. Therefore, the horse giving the biggest weight concession is also the horse with the biggest class advantage.

The effect of weight is often overstated, so the class advantage can often prove more effective than the penalty.

1-1 INISHMORE can bounce back to winning form following a three and a half length seventh (slow start ) at Pune. The four-year-old was an authoritative winner on his previous outing. He is conceding 5kg to his nearest rival in div2 of class 3 and gets the vote under above mentioned logic of horse racing system. 

Quick re-appearances

Rules:

1. Bet to win on any horse running within seven days of a previous outing.

2. Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:

Horses reappearing very quickly do so for a good reason. A winning horse may be out again quickly to avoid the handicapper. A losing horse may be out again quickly to recoup losses. A horse may have been given a prep spin shortly before a target race. Some horses thrive on racing and are given multiple entries when they hit form.

This trial will attempt to determine whether punters accurately quantify the chances of horses making quick reappearances.

A taking winner at 1200m last week when resuming, 2-6 MAGILETO is turned out again quickly under a 4.5kg penalty, which could be manageable for a gelding on the up. A winner of two of his last four, the 4yo gets the vote under above mentioned logic of horse racing system. 

Classy 3YO handicappers

Rules:

In any 3YO handicap race, work down the race card from the top, and bet the first horse you come to which was placed first, second or third on its last run.

In the event of there being no qualifier by the time you are halfway down the card there is no bet.

Logic:

Three-year-olds at the top of the handicap are improving horses (as opposed to older top weights who may be declining, but are still at the top based on what they did a long time ago). The effect of weight is grossly overstated in most cases, so the official handicapper has saved us a lot of form study by telling us the best horses. We then just need to look for confirmation of current form.

4-4 REMINISCENE may not have been in action since last February but she looked a smart individual when scoring on debut. The three year old now faces weaker opposition most of them are class 5 winners except Koenig who beat nothing of note in Pune and if ready roll after long lay off REMINISCENE is one to consider under above theory of horse racing system. 

Regards 

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8 Replies

Prashanthkumar Pk said ...

01-Jan-2024

Happy New Year  

Abhishek Poman said ...

31-Dec-2023

Nice to see you back dharmesh sir 

Thanks and regards

Abhishek dilip poman

Chase said ...

31-Dec-2023

Welcome back Dharmesh Sir. You may be correct that Inishmore has class. But it is running after 2 months , change of venue and change of jockey.

Outlander can upset all calculations.

Vikas said ...

31-Dec-2023

Their is no hard and fast rule in horse racing / handicapping

The only certainty in the racing is their is no certainty

You may be on top on one particular day / event but in long run it won't work

Anyways Good Luck 

Buddy said ...

31-Dec-2023

With due respect to headpost - 1-1 beat irish gold that is mediocre - plenty of 3 year olds in this race-  I feel 1-1 will not place.       4th race - lord murphy & fancy nancy are good horses- select one of them - will even get good odds in place

Gopinath. Raman said ...

31-Dec-2023

Dear Dharmeshji.... Appreciate your views, comments and Logic.. 

Pls note, that the views of the handicapper is different.  He has placed Horse no. 1, Inishmore - the best 6f winner in Pune-2023 in 1.07.45 secs.in C-III - D-2 here today. With 7 kg handicap disadvanyage to Misty and a failed favourite in Grade -3 runner in FD WADIA Cup.  Moreover, Inishmore does not have a run benefit, whereas Misty has one.  Also Misty beat Generosity in Mumbai last week. So play Misty and Generosity as a good double for the day and make money today. Good Day

 

Chutzpah said ...

31-Dec-2023

Dali Swirl 

Baby Bazooka 

Mojito 

 

 

Chanish said ...

31-Dec-2023

@Dharmrsh Sir,

If Inishmore can tackle Misty, he is an outright winner.   But can he ?   Of course, place on Inishmore seems to be a moral certainty @ around 2/1