@Prinit,

Yes there are many such incidents that should not deter us from trying a method.My point is when your choice is backed by arithmetic howver silly it may be it gives one confidence to bet.

People list down a dozen or more parametrs to select a horse with many qualitative in nature.Mine is one of the parameters.Timing people say is dependent on pace of race and hence not reliable.Towards that view i want to explain how Time Clocked has to be refined to be used as a parameter for picking Winner.My exercise is just that nothing more.

Thanks.

Mr Sun.

Racing is a wonderful sport of glorious uncertainties and many variables. If it starts answering to a complex algorithm where some parameters are input to get the desired outcome then it will lose its charm.

I will give you a couple of examples of choosing winners. 

Many years ago I was in Mumbai for the PBM. The favourite ridden by R Hughes was a wonderful specimen and the best horse by looks in the paddock. I loved it looks and bet on it, however it came in last. Another horse of the owner from Bangalore won. I persevered with loosing horse and it won the Indian derby paying 82 Rs for a fiver on tote. The horse was Starsky.

Another time in Pune, derby race. I loved the paddock looks of a horse called Antonios and played it. It was badly checked in the straight by the eventual winner and raised an objection. The stewards asked the jockey if he thought he was riding a Ferrari to think that he could overcome the front running horse. The objection was overruled.

I persevered and probably was the only one cheering at the pune race course when Antonios beat Set Alight in the Indian derby. It paid 450 rs for a tenner on tote.

These are some examples where no logic or formula works.

So to all, we all have our judgement and gut feeling. So after doing all the study, learn to listen to the gut and play accordingly. Best of luck to all.

@ Prinit

But my friends do bet and ours is cooloborative effort ,He uses his method.Since my Choices are just output of Excel Sheet no emotiona; quotient is involved.

 People list down many parametrs for selecting a horse i just want to see whether pure calculations can be relied upon.There is no Single Horse race.Even if we can pick Winner from 2 choices it is good enough.

Secondly If in a Race like Derby if working can se[arate 2 equally good gorses it serves the purpose.Indian Derby if Jendayi Timing and Enabler Timing separation is known to that extent it serves the purpose.

See it as just another approach fro Winner Picking

@Sun

Noted., I will get back to you soon on this thread. Please wait for my reply  by Sunday or Monday.

Thank you for clarifying the doubts

I lost all interest in this thread once sun said that he does not bet. Then this is if academic interest only. 

@Thunderstrike,

Just for you because no one may see this post after so many days of posting.

I give below output of Excel Calculation Choices without factoring any other parameter

Kolkata  

R2      Impermanence     Cest L Amor

R3      Magnite     Kikata

R5      Amber Knight     Perfect Blend

Chennai

R3     Gajabo Grande     Western Girl

R6      Gutsy     Wind Symbol

@ Thunderstrike,

At the outset I am sorry that i have not indicated the Unit of Weight is 0.5 Kg OR One Rating Point Hence we get factor 2 to convert Kg to Rating Point (0.5Kg)

On having 450Kg as Body Weight of horse  Earlier I used plot Weight as recorded but whenever a heavy weight horse say 500Kg participated the TPR was coming lower and with the result the Time for 1600 Was not consisatent with other horses.Next issue is why 450 Kg I have decided on 450 Kg because for many Centres Min Bottom Weight is 50Kg so 450 plus 50 converted to Half Kgs is 1000 In fact for Mumbai I use 451Kg because Min Bottom Weight is 49Kg

0-19 Class eligible does not Change Bottom Rating.All horses below Rating 20 for this Race will carry only 49 Kg.For this race if we go by Rating of 46 and Handicap of 56 Kg the Bottom Rating is 46 minus (56-49)*2 which is 22 but it is 20-45 Race and hence it is noted as Weight Lowered by 1 Kg which is (20-22) Since horse is alloted 1Kg less to bring Time Clocked on Par on Standard Scale we Add Time equivalent og 1 Kg Noting of Weight Lowering and Raise is for a Race and it is same for all horses.

You are not getting 8380 because in PNR correction you have not put Day's PNR and Reference PNR 

PNR correction Factor is 20 On that day PNR was 3.8 So for PNR 3.6 Time will be better like 20(Factor)*(3.6 -3.8)* TPR(8.3) Now 8380 will be tallying.

For extrpolating to 1600 Mtrs i have,by, trail and error,arrived at a value of 6 The difference in Distance is noted in 100s of Meters.Hence 1600 minus 1000 is 6.

So from 1000 to 1600 it is 6(Factor)*6(16-10)*6(TPR assuned as 6000/1000) this comes to 216 and is Prorated that is 216*16/10 giving 345.6 added to 9600 gives 9945 Hope it is clear 

For say 1200 and the Time is 7200 and Body Weight plus Handicap is 1000 then TPR is 7.2 Additional Time after Prorata is

(6(Factor)*(16-12)*7.2)*16/12 is 230 

Hope it is now clear.

After all this working the horses may not oblige that is a different matter.

Listen- All trainers have majic wand = that can turn a class 1 horse into a vb horse within 2 minutes- you got to pick it up in paddock along with ablity to study the race well - timing is a very small part might help after many other angles are taken care of- Horse gambling is ok for retired people with fixed income - for others its a tragedy waiting to happen.

@Sun

Okay,  4th Feb 2024 , Race No. 98. 1400m , Mumbai 

For reference you said Horse  WINTER AGENDA.

Now clocked timing 1min 23.72sec . Converting it to seconds it is 83.72sec

Now you converted 83.72sec to 8372 using Unit of Time ( .01 sec.). I assume this must be Probably for further calculation purpose 

Calculating TPR ,time per ratings  8372/(450*2+109) = 8.297 or 8.3

How did you get that 450kg constant and how much does it disturbs the equilibrium ?

Why horse weight multiplied by '2' also why addition of 109 ?

Horse rating is 36 for that race day. 

Class IV; H'cap, (Indian Horses rated 20 to 46) (0 to 19 eligible) 

At Mumbai Minimum bottom weight is 49kg ( so this Minimum bottom weight changes centre to centre , Right ?)

Now horse handicap on Standard scale.

Minimum bottom weight ( based on centre) + ( rating of horse - lowest class rating of that race  )

(0 to 19 eligible) , is also mentioned for that race, does this effect considering lowest class rating as 20 or less ?

49 +  (36-20) = 49 + ( 16 ) but instead of 16 you took 8 . Is there any relation with (.05)kg mentioned by you ) 

Now 49+8 = 57kg  need to be alloted but it was 56kg. Weight lowered 1kg in records 

When you said this race is noted for weight being lowered 1kg alloted, so how many previous races need to be noted for that horse ?

So clocked time by WINTER AGENDA , 8372 has to be adjusted for : 

a) Weight Lowered value of 1 Kg ( based on minimum  bottom weight )

b) Jockey Allowance 1.5 kg . Does body weight of Jockey also plays any difference ?

c) Day PNR 3.8 reference PNR adopted is 3.6 . Is this 3.6 constant ?  How much variation in penetrometer effects the speed of horses (+ and - ) ?

Normalising the time of horse , 8372 plus 2*TPR (For Weight Lowering) plus 3*TPR (for Jockey Allowance of 1.5Kg) plus 20*TPR (for PNR adjustmeny factor 3.6-3.8 Day' PNR)

=>> I am confused with this formula can you please correct me 

8372 + ( 2*TPR) + (3*TPR) + (20*TPR) = 

In the above what is TPR , is it 8.3 ? Also why are you using constants like 2 , 3 and 20 for correction of weight lowering unit , jockey allowance and PNR ? 

"This comes to 8380 This is the Time on Standard Scale at PNR 3.6 for 1400 mtrs." 

I am not getting this value of 8380. Can you elaborate more by showing the calculation 

#########

After this we will discuss on the last part  given below.

Using this value we Normalise to 1600 Mtrs as

8380*(16/14) Prorata plus 6(Distance Normalisation Factor)*(16-14) Difference in Distance in 100 Mtrs*TPR as above prorated to 16/14

(

=> How did you get (16/14) ? Is it 1600m/1400m ?

What is (16-14) purpose? ( Why not 1600m- 1400m ?)

Distance normalisation factor 6sec for every 100m right ?

Can you elaborate little more on this. I am little confused 

The logic is we first Prorate it and Additional Value to reflect strain on horse for extra distance ( understood, that's a valid point )

Suppose we take 1 Min for 1000 Mtrs and TPR  6 for 1000 Mtrs extra to be added is (6*6*6)*16/10 equal to 345 (Approx) ( can you elaborate little further on this, I am confused  with part of calculation. Why (6*6*6)*16/10) ? 

In effect it means if a horse has clocked 1 Min for 1000 Mtrs it will run 1600 Mtrs for  9600 plus 345 OR 1 Min 39.45 secs  ( please explain how did you get (6*6*6)*16/10) as 345.6 and  why did you selected (6*6*6)*16/10) )

For Winter Agenda it works out to 9691 or 1 min 36.91 Sec

For each horse we have these values and using this Times for  all participating horses paticipating are estimated to choose the Winner 

@Thunderstrike. Yes, see the videos on the clubs site. On the top left corner they are showing the speed.

@Ajoy Shah

Where did you get stats of horses running speed for a race ? I mean from starting gate to bend to last 100mtrs.. where did you get these stats. Is it from Hyderabad racing website 

@Thunderstrike.

Working for bringing Time Clocked by a horse to a Common Denominator

Mumbai 4th Feb Rno 98 Winter Agenda

As I informed earlier i Normalise All Times to 1600 Mtrs and use the same for Anslyis irrespectuve of Distance of the Race being Analysed

Winter Agenda clocked 1 Min 23.72 Sec.Using 0.01 Sec as Unit of Time this gets converted to 8372

We calculate Time Per Rating(TPR) (0.5Kg) as 8372/(450*2+109) Here actual Weight Carried is taken after Subtracting Jockey Allowance of 1.5 Kg 

This TPR works out to 8.3 (Excel Computes this value to many Decimals)

Horse Rating is 36 in 20-46 Class At Mumbai Mn Bottom Weight being 49 Kg the horse Handicap on Standard Scale is 49 plus (36-20) which is 49 plus 8 Kg 57Kg but was alloted 56 Kg So this race is noted as Weight Lowered by 1 Kg in the records.

So time of Results Page 8372 has to be adjusted for 

a) Weight Lowered value of 1 Kg   b) Jockey Allowance 1.5 kg and c) Day PNR 3.8 reference PNR adopted is 3.6 

This working is 8372 plus 2*TPR (For Weight Lowering) plus 3*TPR for Jaockey Allowance of 1.5Kg plus (3.6-3.8 Day' PNR)*20*TPR(20 is PNR Adjustment Factor) This comes to 8380 This is the Time on Standard Scale at PNR 3.6 for 1400 mtrs

Using this Time we compute TPR (Standardised for the Scale 20-46)Here TPR is 8380/(450*2+98(Min Bottom Weight)+(36-20)

Using this value we Normalise to 1600 Mtrs as

8380*(16/14) Prorata plus 6(Distance Normalisation Factor)*(16-14) Difference in Distance in 100 Mtrs*TPR as above prorated to 16/14

The logic is we first Prorate it and Additional Value to reflect strain on horse for extra distance

Suppose we take 1 Min for 1000 Mtrs and TPR  6 for 1000 Mtrs extra to be added is (6*6*6)*16/10 equal to 345 (Approx)

In effect it means if a horse has clocked 1 Min for 1000 Mtrs it will run 1600 Mtrs 10 9600 plus 345 OR 1 Min 39.45 secs 

For Winter Agenda it works out to 9691 or 1 min 36.91 Sec

For each horse we have these values and using this Times for  all participating horses paticipating are estimated to choose the Winner 

Thanks

@All.

Regarding timing,just noticed that Hyderabad club has started a km per hour timer in their races. And what I noticed was in all classes of races upto 1600 mts , maximum speed of horses are in the first 300 mts( going from around 65km/hr for class 4 to 68km/hr for class 1 races) At bend all come down to around 57 kms. But it is the finishing speed I was surprised to see. Always thought that the last 100 mts would be really fast. But on the contrary I noticed all classes from bend to finishing is always around constant 58-60 kms with no burst of speed. As if horses are now tired and just whoever holds on to that speed is winning.

I maybe wrong , anyone can throw more light on this, please do. Thanks.

From my experience 3main parameters 

Odds

Paddock view the muscle structure overall look

Pedigree

Bonus parameter: internal info based on connections Backed 

If align all these 3+1 In a right proportion you almost find your Winner / place 

Then just stand in payment Queue 

@Thunderstrike 

Your post appeared just now IR I will come back tomorrow 

@ Godzilla,

Its OK.Yes nothing can be done about Sacred Bond race.As per my system also it was first choice.Even 2nd,3rd,4th choices of my system were bypassed needs study

@GC Raj,

For a long time I followed Ratings system to pick winners by comaring my Computed Ratings with Official Ratings but Winner picking was difficult as spread of Advantage/Disadvantage was in narrow range.

Yes there are bad timings of a race but we create a PAR time of participating horses and average with it the problem can be solved.Again the Times Clocked may form a Normal Distribution Curve and we ignore extremes.Another point is Time Clocked in a Race and its evaluation of it.What I mean is how we comare Time Clocked in 20-45 Class with another horse of 40-65 Class when both are participating in tday's race.So many cariables to handle..

.

I totally dis agree with the defeat of SACRED BOND and BLAZING GUN.

NRI was thought out to be classic contender.As a 2 yr and 3 yr it reeled off races and even win a graded event.

In its previous run over a mile it ran 4 th and it was in the front till bend.That day its stable and owner mate won the race.

NRI was exploited in all Bangalore and Hyderabad classic but some how it lost its bearing.

After a steady systematic preparation..it was bought to peak form and in previous outing over a mile it was guaged and then day before the COUP was executed brilliantly.

If one can't judge or decipher a race it's his problem for me NRI WAS DAYS BEST BET.

I GAVE NO GHOST OF CGANCE TO BLAZING GUN who was up by 6 kgs and SACRED BOND the most um reliable horse who never runs two races alike 

@All

If you can help understand and fine tune a method please come forward with positive comments. Let a person learn something. Because it's a public platform, I can understand mix reaction from different people.

@Godzilla 

Even though you are right about connection, there is nothing wrong in learning.

As I said before, you are absolutely right about horse performance after bend position. Please continue with positive inputs.

@Supernatural

Specifically, I would request you to ignore this post for your mental health. I am sure you are making good money by your method. Please continue following them and do the analysis. I am here to learn for myself. This is an open forum for all.

@Sun

I think I have 14th Feb, 15th Feb for working on your method. Wishing you all best wishes on Vasant Panchami.

So coming to the topic .  Please correct me wherever I am wrong and help me understand how to do it 

For reference we will take Mumbai 4th Feb 2024

1.Pick a race day.  Convert all race irrespective of distance to Mile (1600m) for reference.

So let's say if consider 1200m , 1400m , 2000m , 2400m race  and now we have to normalise the timing to 1600m

Example if a horse clocks timing of

• 72sec for 1200m , then it should  be 1600m / ( 1200m / 72sec ) = 96sec
• 84sec for 1400m , then it should be 1600m / ( 1400m / 84sec ) = 96sec
• 120sec for 2000m , then it should  be 1600m / ( 2000m / 120sec ) = 96sec
• 144sec for 2400m , then it should  be 1600m / ( 2400m / 144sec ) = 96sec

2.  When you said 

"Secondly to adjust times at different Weights I use a Factor which is Time per Rating OR 0.5Kg This is worked out by dividing Time Clocked by Horse's Weight plus Handicap.I take Horse Weight Constant of 450 Kg becaue if we vary this TPR varies which disturbs the equillibrium."

Please explain with one example from 4th Feb 2024 Mumbai .

Adjusting time using atime per ratings.5kg.

Meanwhile I will resume reading the post again by 7.30pm. 

Sun

Sorry. Its meant for Thunderstrike and not to you. 

One thing I would like to clarify:

In Racing, no theory will work. It all depends on connections on which horse they would like to go. Its as simple as that. No point in breaking our heads. Once in a blue moon fair Racing happens. Nowadays selections depends on speculation and not on Merit, like Stock Market.

Where are the good horses for competition ? The connections only will decide the outcome even in Classics like INDIAN DERBY. Indian Derby you take, Invitation I will take.

Last week in Hyderabad, in Vegavathi Cup, money poured on Sacred Bond and Blazing Gun as if there is no tomorrow.. While Sacred Bond conveniently left the start and trailing last without any effort made by Kuldeep Singh, Vivek on  Blazing Gun woke up late and enacted a drama. As a result no hoper NRI Super Power won the Race with back breaking weight..

What one will do in such circumstances. Where were the Stewards who instructed Trainer L DeSilva to give enough gate practice to Sacred Bond before accepting. 

Such delibirate actions cause immense loss to only punters. No theory will work in such cases. . 

An open and balanced mind is required in this game.One should be  neither obsessed with greed  nor scared of loosing.With easy and carefree attitude, better results  might be possible.

timing only can not be criteria in selecting the winning horse..for example if there was no good competation in aparticular race..winning horse will not be extended more..it will win with more reserve in hand..so defnitely timing will be more..same DAY in the same class some other horse would have been extended more to win because of tough competetion and clicks excellent time..in the next outing if both these horses run together..better time horse can not win as every one things 

@Godzilla,

This post IS in response to a request from Thunderstrike and for easy reference i posted as a New Topic.I have no intention to teach any person here .All are experts in their own way.Your comment "No need to Teach" is not in good taste.

@Sudheer,

Very well explained how the Time Clocked is a function of Competetion and horse's position in that bunch.Normally one carries the impression that if there is a Photo Finish for all 4 horses on board,the Timing is best.On the contrary it will be inferior Time in that Class for that Distance

First of all thanks a lot for ht forum.

Mr..GODZILLA. SIR you are a very loyal and great person how simply you had expressed the most important views of racing.REALLY the two things you mentioned can crack a winner if sttudiied carefully..

Thank you. 

Search for a winner gets diluted if you club  place option.Most of the search results end in catching odds on or first favourites.Favourites including  those run in the classics are hooked is a universal truth.when search results in longer odds horse, there is a good chance of making a packet.

Sun

Time will vary according to distance is an elementary point which even any punter can understand. Even in long distances, the Race will come to a boiling point  from bend to distance post and last 200 mtrs will be of paramount importance  Please accept.

I calculate these timings taking into consideration all aspects. No need to explain or teach.

Some interesting comments on this thread.. 

Someone is saying class doesn't matter and the horses will run upto their potential irrespective of class.. That is not the way it works in racing.. Class of the race matters a lot.. The difference is if the horse is running in the lower class than what it should be in then it can run within itself and will conserve energy and raise a gallop when needed.. If the horse is out of class then the pressure on the horse becomes more and it can't go in it's comfortable zone and eventually it will give up because theres no question of conservation of energy with the constant pressure.. It would clock worse timing carrying less weight than the lower class.. Class and pace of the race and the run it gets decides the results.. The perfect example is Corfe Castle winning two sprint championships.. The only reason Corfe Castle won both the sprints is because iron age was running in both the races and another leader is pressuring iron age .. Without the speed of iron age in the front there's no finishing burst of Corfe Castle.. If iron age is the only leader in the race then Corfe Castle can't even reach the tail of iron age if theres morenthan one leader then iron age will struggle to run a place.. Its all about how the race is gonna pan out.. If your horse is a swooper make sure it has enough pace in the race to have a chance.. If your horse is a leader then make sure there is no other leader in the race.. Leaders from inside draws and swoopers from middle to outside barriers.. 

Mr. Supernatural how do you find my SELCTIONS fluke... Please explain

@Sun 

I will attempt from tonight and get back to you at the earliest by tomorrow. I will select the main event latest Derby day card  of Mumbai , Pune , Bengaluru, Hyderabad .

I was held up with some work. But this looks exciting learning something new  for me .

@Jitender

Can you describe in more details thank you ?

Did you read the whole book ?

@Vincero

I remember this , like four or five years back you posted this on a forum . I don't have the link right now. It must be in this thread. I will look into this formula.

@Chase 

Whatever method one choses , they must always be ready to fine tune the system again and again because we are attempting to predict the future , a future that is not in our control."

Very true. A lucky guy doesn't need to calculate risk , only a person fighting it's own failures needs to calculate the risk to get success. By any method. Few People have got success with Astro numbers but still not perfect method. Probably calculation of Dasha or antardasha of planets at that time and place need to be calculated. I

@ Godzilla.

I agree . Also the time constant variable should vary for different distance because an animal will loose it's pace at longer distance.

Like an athlete can run for 10sec in 100m than he can't run for 20sec in 200m or 40 sec in 400m. The time has to increase but exception in rare occasion can happen.

@Krishna

Frankly speaking that's life. The end result matters no one appreciates the efforts put by the second or failed person. That is the reason I am trying to appreciate the efforts put by tipsters and motivate them to put more efforts. Like one of the senior tipster like Anushree, atleast someone should appreciate or interact with them. No wonder she got upset. I did write the appreciation but it was visible very late . Forum should be for everyone to interact.

@Punter King 

Have patience and follow this thread .

Please don't crack your head by timings previous run nobody is perfect in this racing my method of following just read thoroughly race card and just watch  Ashok Mysore days best, abhay Pune days best, Godzilla choice of big races, racebro explantion each race, Sai selection for fluke last but least Ruchi explantion on particullar race and last stand in front of the bookies stall till last minute observe odds in and out and select horse you will get good results 

Dear Sun

Not only Alexsndros, even  if Juliette runs in those colours as a favourite also, it won't win.Universal truth!

Hi everyone hope I am ;ot harsh to any one in horse racing above all queries of my ht friends three things most essential is money knowledge luck and information. Guys who don't know to study race card basically is very difficult to make money in horse racing do your homework before the race day pick ur selection and match it with the experts the horses mingling with ur favourite tipster back it with confidence sab ka suno apna karo gambling me darna mana hai hope admin will post my opinion thank you friends 

@ Godzilla 

Sir, absulety agree with you bend position n final position is very significant to pick winner.

Would you please shed your experience in this subject, my observation horse comes to fourth  from sixth,seventh,eight bend position are most likely winner in their next outing, again depends overall field .

The most prominent variable is Money.

Anyone here really actually know how the first odds are opened by the bookkeepers? Please do share the method. On which basis the rest of study and variables will come into play. Thanks.. 

BLOODLINE is also very important factor for

Selecting a Horse.

@ Punter King,

What I am attempting is from the Previous Run of a horse can we extrapolate to today's race and see the chances of Runners purely based on Timings.

Suppose in today's race for say 40-65 Class there are 10 horses and they have run earlier in races of different classes 0-25 or 60-85 class,at different distances say 1000.1400 etc and on different dates with PNR readings likie 3.2 3.4 etc carrying different Handicaps can we  bring the Timings to a Common Datum to predict Winner at today's Handicap of runners.

The long write up is outlining the process of Normalising to common datum.It is as simple as that.

@Mr. Sun I am reading your article trying to know exactly what you want to say. But after reading so many times I am still confused. Might be Mr. Thunderstrike is able to understand  but normal punters like me can't. 

So I request you to please explain me n this forum in short what exactly you are trying to say.  Writing should be simple n small so that people can understand. 

@Chase.

No one can summarise better than what you said.Yes a Auto Driver can pick a 20/1 horse by just by looking at the change of jockey or distance of race etc.As you rightly said its depends on one's inclination how to approach an issue

@PG

Yes a horse will run to its potential in any race.I don't think I have touched this aspect anywhere in my write up.My exercise is from the Time Clocked in a previous race how to evaluate the chances of runners.Since the previous Race Class,Distance,Handicap etc vary from horse to horse of participating horses how to bring them to common datum to pick a winner is crux of the problem 

@ For All

I don't wager It is my hobby to Analyse Races I am open to any suggestions

My view is when so much of Data is provide in Race Card and Results page there must some use of those to predict a Winner and hence this Calculations based approach.

Thanks Sun. This is a nice way to approach the problem. The empirical way of problem solving. Identify variables which can be measured. Device a method to link them ie identify their relationship. Then make a formula to get an output. The trouble is in this field as well as in life one plus one is sometimes two but often it is 1.4 or 2.3 or even eleven! Mostly I go by the logic that when two and two come together then its mostly Five!

Timing is variable depend upon following conditions:

1 Diffrent tracks

2 Track conditions like soft & heavy or normal

3 Top class or lower class

4 Dirt or Turf

5 False rails

6 Pace of the race

7 Top or Lower weight carrier.

Inspite above stated parameter, the person who pick winner is a great person.

It is a wrong concept to think that a horse will run differently in lower or higher class. A horse will run according to it's potential, and the timing will be the same if it run's in any class. Also a classic or cup or plate race does not make any difference to a horses, expected timing and potential.will be the same.

Who say's that a horse's timing will be different in a cup from a plate race or a classic. Remember, a horse run's only on it's fitness and not on the higher or lower class. Only in-experienced punter's talk in this manner., knowledgeble one's will not accept this.

Horse racing is based on multiple variables and has no fixed parameters. Hence, you cannot determine any empirical formulas or methods, as it is not an exact science.
Just because you got a horse based on your timing factors does not mean you will be successful in all the races.
Be pragmatic, keep your ears closed and your eyes peeled, and use your racing knowledge judiciously by factoring in the various parameters. Every race course has a different surface, and hence, you need to calibrate your timing factor accordingly. That becomes a laborious factor and is not worth the while.
I did try it in my earlier racing days, but sadly, I came a cropper.
Good luck to you if it has been rewarding for you, and I wish you the best.

Just for your kind notice, I have not posted to elicit a response but just to give my feedback. Thank you

Guys

Winner picking depends mostly on bend position and last 200 mtrs clocked, which you will find on Bole and Cole Race books. If indiarace.com also gives bend position and position at Winning Post, winners can be easily picked.

I can't go to Race Course and buy these books. I am watching Videos and picking the winners and that's why lacks consistency.

@Vincero,

I heard about TV through articles of SK Sagar Ji but could not grasp the concept.He himself has concentrated on Mumbai Track.The fact remains that no method can give an accurate value for expected time.

For a long time I concentrated on Ratings rather than Timing because many people said that Final Time of a Race depends on Pace of Race and I did not concentrate on Timing Analysis for a long time.Now I find the Times exhibit a Normal Distribution Curve and if we leave extremes others will be within a range.

In some races there may be horses from many Centres and if TV for a course is not available then the whole exercise is incomplete.So I Normalise Time for PNR and Distance of Race to the Anchor Distance of 1600 Mtrs

@Jitender

I am not aware of any British Encyclopedia dealing with this Topic.This is a Commonsense approach to take care of Variable like PNR and as explaned above I set 1600 Mtrs Distance to bring all Times to a Common Denominator

In that Encyclopedia is there any discussion on Relative Time versus Absolute  Time.Can you please if any

@Subash   

Yes it is Gambling but a method in madness is what I am attempting.If we approach the problem with a premise that all races are "made up" races then one can pay by looking at movement of Odds

@Chennai,

Difficult to give working here as all Data is taken from Master File.

Thanks for your interest

D= Current Race Distance

T= Timing in secs

AT= Adjusted Timings

Timings+(Previous Distance-Distance)*.0625+ (C Weight- Previous Weight) /10

Tv= Track Variant (Adjustment as per days Going) 

Rating = (D/(AT-Tv) ) *100-1000

There are 365 different angles to look at a point , Not counting the fractions.

That is only in 2 dimension. In a 3 dimension world , it will be 365 to the power of 365 minus one: a mind boggling number.

So there are any number of ways to look at a problem. Each one has to choose their  own way depending upon their background, knowledge , experience and learning ability. Whatever method one choses , they must always be ready to fine tune the system again and again because we are attempting to predict the future , a future that is not in our control.

 judgement and decision making do not rest with ob jective data analysis alone but also with the subjective personal preferences and biases.

Yes sir , there are people who can't even read a race card , still do well based on what they hear and see.

There are costly algorithms that often fail .

That is the paradox.

Every one must do it in their own way .

Whatever we do we must always remember that we can't win them all, there will be failures and the best way is to understand ourselves , our own strengths and weaknesses .

Take a calculated risk. Curb impulsive betting. Strictly adhere to rules of personal discipline.

@Sun

Thank you for posting the topic as a separate thread.

I will need to go through this and apply myself to give you my feedback. Please give me time till night. I will be working right now.

Yes it always need to update the method to get accuracy. Got a quninela dividends for first race. ( 2,3,5,7 ) for 60rs it was  612rs in Hyderabad. Thanks to you.

Luck does play a factor, which cannot be predicted.

Anyways as per my method

JAAT HERO >>MISS SCARLETT >> MASTER ZELENKO >> DOMINANT

I never had LIGHTNING SPEED

It will be very exciting to upgrade myself. Superb selection for first race .

Thannk you.

@sir sir

Please give me one exmaple with culuculations.

Everyone have own thought n concept.  So I don't feel it will be useful. Anyway thank you  but this is actually available in  British horse racing enclopidia also.  Still good try sun 

@sun you just make this program more complicated and still not full proof.such a complex and self tought methods just consumed more time and more confusion in end result. There are many PPL who use advance method to solve this puzzle but failed miserably.we talk lot on horse but nobody can make fortune on it.60-70 % always gamble,so find horse within 3-5 minutes and Play,rest is your luck.bookie makes tones of money,even don't now how to read Horse card.forgot everything and focus on quick picks and check your luck