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By Perdo | 15-Jan-2026Among the top horses in the country as of now, a viable chance to lift the derby can only be given to Fynbos and Baychimo. It is my rule to never consider any race to be only between two horses, thus, I can make a case for Arrived, Sovereign King and maybe Namiri.
Out of these 5 horses, the only horse that ticks all boxes for me as per performance and consistency is Baychimo.
That said, 2400M is a whole new ball game for a horse who hasn't gone the distance before, and thus, Draw, Pace, etc play a big role in a horses' winning chance. I expect Baychimo to have a fast pacemaker, which should suit him as well as disrupt the pacemaker from Shroff's yard. Accompanied by the best judge of pace and running in Suraj Narredu, the horse does have one of the best chances of winning the race.
Please post your picks as well as solid reasoning backing the same. I have only done an analysis of Baychimo, keeping open the same to be done for other prime contenders by others. Thank you
37 Replies
Pure Handicapping said ...
24-Jan-2026Indian Derby - Winner Prediction
1) PYRITE - only if Mukesh Kumar Rides
2) CASTEEL - only if Suraj Narredu Rides
Prathamesh Barje said ...
24-Jan-2026Ok Thanks
Its good for FYNBOS.
So Trevor will be ride
Perdo said ...
23-Jan-2026Prathmesh Barje
Suraj has been booked for Baychimo quite early, he cannot ride Fynbos.
K. Vijayakumar said ...
20-Jan-2026It is too early to predict the probable winner in the Villio C. Poonawala Indian Derby to be fun on 1st February 2026 at Mahalakshmi race course, Mumbai. Neverthless, for argument sake if BAYCHIMMO, ZACHARIAS, and FYNBOSS run , then the winner will be among these trio only. No other horse will stake any claim in this prestigious race.. My prime choice will be FYNBOSS Bcos it will emulate the wonder mare JULIETTE.. and I shall play big on this horse..
All the best.
Prathamesh Barje said ...
19-Jan-2026Pesi won't give Trevor a ride on FYNBOS. They have quarreled over 1G Race
Stunt Master said ...
19-Jan-2026Gunsmoke had injury and he is not part of Derby race..
Only baychimo
J Rajkumar said ...
17-Jan-2026All, punders,
Happy New Year.
God bless u all.
Baychimo, sire Frenchnavy,has won 2000mtrs at South Africa.
Jacqueline has won Oaks and Indian Derby.
FYNBOS.
The ONE Horse.
Sire and Dam has proved.2400mtrs.
PATEL TREVOR, will ride.
So FYNBOS won't loose the race.
Tabrez said ...
17-Jan-2026All has to beat GUNSMOKE one horse race.
Munesh said ...
17-Jan-2026Calcutta derby batch doesn't stand a chance here.Baychimo is improving from run to run.Question mark about extra two furlongs.Fynbos repeated Bangalore performance in a good time but here the bunch is below average.Sovereign King can't be ruled out either.Others are below par like Calcutta derby batch.As usual Pessi's filly will be made favourite here, even if the result will be otherwise.
Sunny The Great said ...
17-Jan-2026All the stats and track work is all myth
First thing first Only colts have good winning strike unless exceptional fillies, so looking back all runs till now fynbos or any other fillies got no chance to beat BAYCHIMO
The Joker said ...
17-Jan-2026Hi Golimar
Just chill mate
Baychimo has got excellent staying pedigree via his site French Navy who has produced stayed over more than a mile n half trip.
But the damn Lady Sergeant doesn't inspire
Fynos byKingda Ka out of Mahali makes her a granddaughter of that great filly Allies Serenade who could stay well
Vis a vis the others, don't know how many these will face but this year's crop is quite weak.
Would love Heart to be flown over, given a pathetic ride by that average jock Chisty.
Expect Kings Ransom to improve.
Cheers
The Joker
Don said ...
17-Jan-2026This is Derby and it's always confusing Don't think it is a simple to make choice
Baychimo good horse will struggle extra mile
Fynbois excellent timing may win
King Gambit a good place between
ARRIVED could win but Mumbai in this field doubt
Dark horse 25/1 Gold Empire ridden very badly by jockey keeping him last till 400 in Calcutta derby covered lot of ground to finish 1 length behind Arrived
Zacharius a good place but will be ridden by P Trevor who is out of form
Yadav said ...
16-Jan-2026GODZILLA SIR COME WITH UR SELECTIONS AND BANG ON THE INDIAN DERBY
Justhotsetips said ...
16-Jan-2026Fynbos vs baychimo .. no others horses for 1st 2 spot . Race between jodi.
I like fynbos to lift the Indian deeby
Perdo said ...
16-Jan-2026Varun
As far as I know, the grey colt Gunsmoke has turned lame and shall not race for 2-3 months. Thus, he will be missing the derby. I fancied the horse for the derby as well, he has shown time and again he is talented and can serve the upset even when he is neglected
Golimar said ...
16-Jan-2026@The Joker...got your point now....you are questioning whether Suraj can handle extra 400 metres on Baychimo to tackle Fynbos. Pretty sure Suraj will give his best as always, the ball is in Baychimo'a court to give that extra 400.metres to tackle Fynbos. I wish Pesi sticks with Vivek. G for Fynbos rather than opting for any foreign rider.
Balaji44 said ...
16-Jan-2026Rochester win the both ruia gold Cup and Indian derby ruia gold Cup from castle bridge and Indian derby from lady in lace
Golimar said ...
16-Jan-2026@The Joker.. seriously? Extra 400 metres?...oaks is 2400 metres, Fynbos won easing up by 6 lengths, very decent timing of 2.29 seconds....don't know what extra 400 metres you are talking about?
Sovereign King is by Topclass/Starlet, Topclass pedigree never proved stamina, Starlet was an out and out sprinter... ruled out completely.
Baychimo is a very very strong contender.
Don't know if Kolkata Derby brigade will be allowed to participate or not.
No other serious contenders, straight fight between Fynbos & Baychimo, rider and tactics will be the key.
Suddalo Gudi Baba said ...
16-Jan-2026FYNBOS is going to be the boss. Zacharias place..Baychimo got exposed completely. The race will be fast paced and Shroff's pace maker outpaces the main contenders.
Varun said ...
15-Jan-2026As per my observation, Gunsmoke can literally hack this field over 2400 and above, tried in many classics and was always on board most of the times, running from dead last to making it on the frame.
Pedigree suggests that horse is an out and out stayer, being a son of classy Havana Gold, which has already produced stayers like Bangalore Oaks winner Teresita & Multi classis winner SUCCESS. Previous Ruia run was just an lung opener for the talented colt. Earlier he was having a habit of jumping little slow and settling dead last, he was much better in Ruia compared to his previous runs, having him under the good hands in the Derby will get him the derby sash. He was not getting the ground which he relishes, 2400 and above , now the time has come to show his true potential.
Baychimo winner of Ruia over 2000 mts clocking smart timing. Baychimo's has done more than what his Pedigree suggested out of a phoenix tower mare which is best suited for 1600.
My observation on Baychimo is he won purely on form, although he has class I doubt that he will stay the Derby trip.
Coming to Magical Pesi's Fynbos - winning by 6 1/2 lengths (eased on last 100mts) to Kings Gambit?? And making her Derby Fav?? There were no stayers in oaks hence on the form and class wise Fynbos has won the race. I doubt that she will stay the Derby distance as her Pedigree suggests her brother Zuccaro never ran or won beyond 2000 mts. I think she will struggle more in the Indian Derby as the pace will be hotter than expected. I think Kings Gambit will be infront of her in the Indian Derby.
Will post my complete analysis once Derby card comes out.
Dhrubo said ...
15-Jan-2026Mr Vinay
Kindly check 2010 records of Indian Oaks and Indian Derby It was the same filly Jacqueline
Perdo said ...
15-Jan-2026Can easily write off Red bishop. Real distance is only 1600M. Maybe can travel 2000M in Class1-2.
Teja said ...
15-Jan-2026Watchout for Red Bishop a sure shot place at good odds, if it runs ins derby...
Perdo said ...
15-Jan-2026Prem
Just because one horse performed well in one race doesn't mean it won't superstitiously win another, or that his chance to win the derby is ruined by winning the ruia.
False logic shouldn't prevail, only the merit and ability of a horse should be your basis of judgement.
Wish you well.
Thanks
Khadeer Pasha said ...
15-Jan-2026From 2011-2025 in 15 years history (4) times only.2015 Besafe, 2018 Rochester, 2019 Star superior 2024 Enabler.
Sriniv said ...
15-Jan-2026Red Bishop for the Derby
The Joker said ...
15-Jan-2026Hi
Suraj has won the Derby 4 times, the last being with Immortality.
Doubt is whether over the extra 400 m he, he can handle FYNBOS.
Forget the Pune Derby winner Zacharias
Cheers The Joker
Khadeer Pasha said ...
15-Jan-2026Uttam Sir, you are correct. In 2024 Enabler win both races. But so many times failed to win the Indian Derby. As per my knowledge.
From last 29 years I am as racing punter.
Krish24_blr said ...
15-Jan-2026Could the knowledge members share some light on the performance of Horse next outing after winning in record time .. what I have read and heard people use to eat the horse in next outing if it has won at record time .. Baychimo won last start in record timing beating Zucaro's timing .. Zucaro is yet to run after that run..
Athresh said ...
15-Jan-2026SOVEREIGN KING as ARRIVED to lift the INDIAN DERBY in TAKING STYLE. Lost to BAYCHIMO due to lack of run benefit.. Looking forward. for another brilliant display of riding by S ANTONY RAJ
Prem said ...
15-Jan-2026Well well mr uttam .. it's a horse sure not a house sounds clear..
But I mentioned as per my knowledge
Untill you gave some lite on 2019 and 2024 ... It's my fault not seeing the respective results..
Appreciable knowledge from you mr Uttam... It's happens errors, but some excuses no horse will win Ruia and derby both.. for some special horses as you mentioned it will... Thank you sir
Vinay said ...
15-Jan-2026Horse won the Indian oaks will never win the India detby so frynbos will not win
Uttam said ...
15-Jan-2026Correct it Enabler is 2024 Ruia cup and Derby
Uttam said ...
15-Jan-2026Mr. prem first of all Be safe is not house it is horse and secondly why d'nt win Ruia Cup Winner not win Indiand Derby, before you write go and check 2025 Enabler and 2019 derby result Star Superior win both the race Ruia cup and Indian Derby,
D'nt misguide punter man
Chikonda Sheyker said ...
15-Jan-2026SOVEREIGN KING @ INDIAN DERBY SASH
NO one can beat this over 2400
Prem said ...
15-Jan-2026Happy makara Sankranti to all..
As per my knowledge which horse win Ruia gold Cup will never win the Derby.. only one house made this that is the great"" BE safe "" after that the house never win an class four race in mumbai... So this intern gives us a clear picture that Byachimo never win the derby so go on find the another horse
Which may be Fnyboss , Namiree, or any other but wait till acceptance will come..
Good luck to all
May this year will be the good for South racing centers ..
Nan said ...
15-Jan-2026BAYCHIMO done nothing wrong till now.. ZACHARIAS and FYNBOS will do their best to upset the former.. ARRIVED cannot travel from KOL to BOM due to restrictions.. INDIAN DERBY shall be one to watch..
Thanks folks
Nan
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