Encino was ridden to lose the race by his trademark style by Sandesh, got just two days suspension considering as overconfidence!!!  Ultimo was rated 100 points race no.31 and rated104 so as Encino for the close finish. Today penalty for Encino is 15 points that's 7.5 kgs, even a comfortable winner will not get penalised like this. As such today his chances are much less whereas Shambala a proven cl.I material should make a race of it. Social butterfly is also good for 1200 mtrs.

Thats called handicapping. Look at the rating of the horse which came 3rd. Its logical coz they beat higher rated horses. 
Its Elementary, my dear Watson.