Einstein,

Some  points  you  must  differentiate to  understand  the nuances  of  this  complex  game. 

Betting  strategy  is  different  from  betting  methods.  Betting strategy(BS) is a  'method' to  'maximise' the ROI while  betting  methods follow  convenional path - betting  on  favorites or  betting  on  consensus  of  tipsters or betting  on  leading  jockey or  trainer etc I don't pay  much  attention  to  them, because  they  have  NEVER  given  more  than  30  to  35% success  rate which  always  resulted  in  a  loss  over  a  period.

A good  handicapping system backed  by  a  'good' betting  strategy  gives  much  better  returns than  betting  'with a  good  system' but  with  conventional betting  methods.

Returns  with  same  system with  betting  strategy  give  much  better  ROI than  using  the  'same' system  with  conventional  methods - betting  on  2  or  3  or  4 races of  the  day ; advocated  by 'prudent'  and  'experienced(???)  punters  with 35 or  45 or 55 years  of  experience...

THEY MAY TRY THEIR  LUCK  AND  PROVE  THE  EFFICACY  OF  THEIR  SYSTEM WHENEVER  RACING  RESUMES  IN  FUTURE. 

Better still they  can  dig out  their  past performances /tips/selections/advices from the  current or  the recent past or  the archives and  prove  the  veracity  of  their  claims  or  points.

It helps.     whom?   The newcomers, who  will  finally  will  carry  the 'burden' or  system or  the  game   forward to  keep  it alive  and running...

.

Einstein,

In  continuation  of  my  23/7,  9.48pm.

As said  earlier my  system  has in built  safety in  that  instead  of  26  continuous losses if  we invert  them and make  them  62 I'll still  be having  my capital intact; which  I  consider normally  20  times  the  betting  unit. I'll show  you  how it  is  possible.

As per  the  data  given  in  the  head  post of this  and  earlier thread my net  winnings  till 26/2/20 are roughly  59  units. In addition  to  Mumbai I'm betting on  Bangalore  races  also. Following  are  the  winnings  from Bangalore  selections  posted  on  this  forum before  the races  were run. 

3/1/20  +5;  4/1/20  +2;  11/1/20   +9/4;   15/2/20   +18 1/2 . Total =  + 27 3/4.

Adding both  winnings  we get a  total  of  86 3/4  units. Deducting  62  continuous  losses I'm still  left  with  more  than  20  units - My  starting or  original  capital....

@ Einstein,

 A further note on Track work.A look at track work can give us some idea of Plans of Trainer in forthcoming Terms Race

 Normally I observed Trainers byheart the Season's Racing Calender and they have some idea of which Terms Race their wards have better chance based on its earnings etc.Then they Zero in on a race a fortnight away or more.

If they are aiming at a Long Distance Race they give track today on distances of 1200/1400 etc.A few days later 800/1000 and then before a race a few spruts of 400.For a Sprint Race a track for 1000/1200 mtrs and few over 400/600 to tone up.

The above are my observations perhaphs someone can tell us if it is true in respect of Corfe Castle.

From December till Corona stopped Racing I did not update my files.During this holiday I could update my files.

@ Einstein,

  Further to the post of Glasgow Prince I wish to post few of my thoughts on those tips.

 At the outset I admit that compared to Glasgow Prince my expertise is not much to speak about but my attempt is to give some inputs from my study of Ratings method for picking Winners.

  1. On Morning Gallops Yes such horses are to be marked and persisted with if not in the next immediate outing. The body weight of riders needs to taken into account.If a heavy weight Jockey is on the Lower Class horse it matters a lot.

 2. Horse Appearing in 4th Place.Normally No Penalty for 4th horse and having finished 4th it can mean it is at striking hanhicap.If such a horse is ridden by a 5kg/4kg Allowance jockey it is more likely to Win.Here the Separating Distance from Winner is another parameter to be noted.If it is Photo Finish and ridden by Full Jockey the next Apprentice Jockey its chanses are much better.A 5 Kg AJ can give an Advantage of 1.5 Kg.Similarly a 4th Placed horse demoted and ridden by AJ must be backed.

 3.Horse running off board to be left.I consider 3 previous Runs and if it is not placed even 5th you can leave.Exception a Winner in a Handicap Race but its next 3 runs are in Terms Races.

 4.Horse Placing on Full Trail but did not Win.Exception 2nd Placed horse unless it is involved in a Photo Fimish.Reson a second placed horse attracts penalty but with 3rd and 4 th horse the penalty is not a concern

 5. Owner Change I have no experience Same is with Change of Equipment.Change of Jockey can be factored in but AJ to AJ OR Full Jockey versus another Full Jockey rether difficult to factor in for me.

Hope you find this useful.

@Glasgow Prince
 

Your valuable inputs are noted. Many thanks@

Sun,

Yes I would  like o continue without  disturbing  others. You  may use the gmail for  the  rest of the  discussion...

@ Chanakya ,

  I did post my second post on the same day but by mistake I slicked on New Topic posting area with the result that at the time of Posting system asked me to write Topic Name.There I requested admin to tag it to this post but perhaps it is lost.

  I completely forgot What I wanted to convey further on Ratings method.

  We interacted long time back and I have your G Mail and if you desire to carry forward the dialogue you can confirm here.

Thanks.

@ SUN,

Waiting  for  your  next and  not final  rermarks  and opinions...

Why have all gone quiet?
Reminds of a dialogue from Sholay in which A.K.Hangal says - 'Itna sannata kyon hai bhai'?
Translates as - Why there is so much silence?

Einstein,

I did think that I would pose a riddle that would point in the direction that leads to cracking the 60 % mystery but on second thoughts I realise that before attempting the deep end it is necessary to first address the 40 % initial target. I will therefore attempt some tips that you can relate to.

1.Morning gallops are reported on Indiarace and in race cards. If you find that a horse of inferior class beats a horse of superior class and returns a good time, watch out for that horse when it runs. If quoted at decent odds, back it with confidence.

2. When a neglected horse appears even in the fourth place on the result board in a race of having at least 9 or 10 runners, it will pay to follow the fortunes of that horse.

3. If a horse runs four or five times in the same class and does not figure in the first four even once in a race of 9 or 10 horses, it should be considered to be out of form. It should not be considered till it shows some semblance of form.

4. Some trainers keep the gallops of their horses secret. They await a good opportunity to try their horse and land a gamble. Sometimes their tactics fail. The horse does not win but secures third or fourth place in spite of the full trial. Then the correct form of the horse is revealed. When that horse runs again and specially if it is neglected, it should pay to back that horse.

5. Sometimes a trainer buys a horse in his own yard belonging to another owner. The horse is tried mostly the very first time it runs and wins. It may even reel out another couple of wins in a row.

Hope you find this somewhat to your liking.

@ Chanakya,

  You are correct I depend fully on Quantitative Method and I admit I am not capable of applying Qualitative Method. for selections.

However,the arguments put forth by many is that how we can factor in Intentions of Connections to keep a horse on Try or Not and how Quantitative Method can take into account understanding among Owners/Trainers/Jockeys.My answer to that is to have a Correct Quantitative method rather than a hotch potch Handicapping.

I solely go by Ratings and found even in races with Ratings below 60 also my method works.In this connection I want to quote an ancedote.In late 70s when I was picking Winners with half knowledge applying Numerology/Astrolog I heard a person comment to a bookie after a big race " Wohi Ek Half Kg ka phar hai" regarding Win of a horse in Photo Finish.That set me on a the path of study of Ratings as means to pick Winneres.I have come a long way from there.My study improved from 2007 after my retirement and after I had a computer at Home.(To be Continued)

@Glasow Prince

Knowledge procured is always life-long. Therefore whether my interest is casual or long does not matter.
Every individual is blessed with intelligence which, quite obvious from the feedbacks, varies.
Only an intelligent mind craves for knowledge. As for the rest, let us maintain silence lest that opens another door for the detractors to move in.
I shall be grateful for any inputs whether from you or any other positive-minded person.
Have the ball set rolling, sir.

Sun,

I've observed that you  also give  more  importance to  quantitative values over  qualitative  parameters which  are  difficult  to  quantify. I agree that runners rated 60+ are almost  fully exposed and  therefore  will follow  the  rating assigned  to  them-  most of  the  time. while below 60 say 50  to  30  band  is  a  mixup  of  coming  down upper grade and moving up lower grade runners and  naturally will  not follow  the  assigned  ratings  of  the  official  handicapper.

As posted  earlier, the  number values of  some  of the  runners you  have  asked  for I would like  to  know your  opinion; because  I follow  Q'untitative number augmnted  or  'reduced' by  qualitative  factors forcing  me  to  bet  on more  than  one runner in  a  race...

One  more  point. In  some  of your  postings  you  have  placed some  values  within brackets- (  ) and  some  outside  it. what  is  th  significance  of putting  value  within  bracket?

@ Chanakya

     Refrence your latest posting addressed to Einstein.

     One has just to be industrious to pick up facts from records and mention them; not clever. But, you have to be clever to distort facts. Misinformation is your speciality.

      You say that I "forgot" to mention that your losing sequence was spread over four days. Another misinformation and a false allegation. If you check my post addressed to Glasgow Prince (15-07-2020 02.53 p,m,) you will see that I have clearly mentioneed the FULL DETAILS OF THE FOUR DAYS over which your losing streak occured.

       You say that you had 62 units in credit in when your losing streak started. If you confirm that this figure of 62 units is restricted to your betting between Mum 29 Dec and Bangalore 27 Feb, I contest it. It is much lesser. However, I don't see any point in providing proof here because of your expertise in obfuscating the issue. If you can appoint an independent jury of three,  I will be more than happy to presen the proof  to that jury. 

Einstein,

I don't know what is the level of your interest in racing......just casual and heavy. If it is heavy, then I can give you a clue...........but through a riddle.........to cracking that 60 % mystery.

Sun,

Thanks for your post.  I am really happy that I still command a good number of well wishers and friends.

O K.  You are displeased.  But, what for?  Is there a single unparliamentary or abusive language from any of my posts.  Not only in this thread.  In any other thread.  If yes, then just point out those words/lines.  I will tender an unconditional apology.

You are all seniors.  To me each and every senior should be bold enough to point out the inconsistencies, lies, bluffs and half truths from anybody.  It is really pity that among horsetalk members, only Auditor has questioned his profit claim.  The rest seem to agree with him.  Or at least refrain from asking some searching questions.  

It is the silence of such seniors that energises him.

You see.  ITR spoke something he does not like.  ITR was shouted down.  In the lead post he has given some calculations of his profit and loss. Auditor questioned his claims.  He was also shouted down. 

I have questioned some inconsistencies.  No answer from him.  Also, he has so far not cared to give a similar profit & loss statement about his bets on Bangalore races. 

Is it your desire that I also should be an "YES MAN" , should keep quiet and give him a free run?

Every senior horsetalk member should be bold and should question the arrogance of any other person.  And, what we expect from seniors?  Only fairness & reasonableness.

This is a free site.  Anybody can post his thoughts.  Only thing is there should not be arrogance, lies in such posts.  No one should misuse this site for self promotion.

Einstein,

I don't get  provoked easily but respond in a  blunt but  clear language. some punters who could never make it  find  it difficult to  digest that  somebody  could  make it or has 'made it'. Their pent up  frustration is evident  in  their  posts. ..

ITR very cleverly tried to  highlight 26  straight losing bets but  forgot that  they were spread  over  4  days and I had  already so  much  of  plus winnings that  even  instead  of 26 there was  a  continuous  loss  of  62 bets  I could still  retain  my capital after  2 1/2 months  of  betting. My system and betting strategy have  a built in  safety which helps me remain  'above  water'  in a  'bad'  weather...

Glasgow Prince,

Of course, the next best teacher to coach Sriman Einstein is Buddy.  He used to bet in petis earlier.  But, unable to withstand the onslaught from th bookies, he gracefully retired.   And to his horror he had no money left.  Bookies had tonsured him totally!

As far as the losing in races are concerned, I can not even pretend to be loser in front of Buddy.  It is really pity that in my 35+ years of betting, I learnt neither winning nor losing.  But, that is not the case with Buddy.  He also has mastered the art of losing.  He can be a very good teacher to Einstein in teaching the reasons why a punter loses.  Right candidate for Dronacharya award too!

@Chanakya sir, Glasgow Prince and Sun,

I humbly request you not to get provoked by Raghavan. Olease carry om with your inputs. I shall be grateful.

@Raghavan

Is it the losses incurred that forces you to behave the way you have doing?

@Glasgow Prince

I'd like to convey my thanks for trying to explain. Your points are valid and have taken note. I'm glad you have taken the initiative. Elders with ample racing experience are requested to follow suit.

Sir, try to guide me like my elder punter friend with simple and basic tips..

Einstein,

you have  to  first  decide what is  your  aim by  going to  horse racing - pastime or earning some  money to  defray racing  expences or  to  make  money regularly.

you don't need  a  system unless you  want  to win big  money regularly  and  want  to enjoy  racing with no profit/loss idea. The  elderly man  has  given correct advice. Just follow him.

Ratings, do help in class I  but  there  are  hardly 5 to  7% races for  this  class 60+ ; 80% races  are  framed for  classIV, A & youngsters which  do  not  follow ratings. Leading trianer or  jockey  or  their  combo  does  not  win  more  than  30-35%, unless these wins  are  above 5/2 the  follower  will  be  loser. His  advice, though correct is  based  on  qualitative handicapping while  I follow Quantitative( numbers) handicapping which  is  augmented  by  qualitative  factors. I give  lot  of  importance  to  current  form and may pickup  second  best  or  even third  best if  his/her  form  is much  superior  to  the highest rated runner in  my  system.

In my  opinion following  qualitative  factors  may help

1) current  form  improvement

2) change  to  better  jockey,

3) weight  advantage

4)  comparable  odds when the  selected  horse  won

5) distance  suitability

6) Prestigeous  or  high  value race

many  more  factors  can  be  addedd...

@ Raghavan Ji

   I have lot of respect for you.Kindly leave your favourite topic as for a gentleman of your age it is not "Shobamanayam"

@Einstein,

   Now I got it.You are looking for a Guide and not a Text Book OR Dos&Donts based on the experiences rather than the Logic of the Statements.

  I cannot but agree with your friend "Old Punter".All his advices make sense.

  Ratings not important for Ratings of 60&below Logic this group consists of improving 3 year olds and good horses of yesteryears. Ratings of runners have not reached steady state level for improving horses  but does not mean we cannot apply Ratings method to those races.

Like that you can see some hard core logic in his advices.I believe in eqipping a student to susrpass the master.Sorry i may not be much help.

Thanks.

Glasgow prince,

In less than 2 paras, you have tried to answer Einstein, who it seems feels that even losers can help the freshers by disclosing the reasons for losing in a horse race.  

However, I feel that you could have withheld the temptation to answer.  Einstein has asked a most difficult question and only the most competent person has the monopoly to answer him.

That I am a loser is known to everyone.  But, the sad part is, I am not only a winner, but I am highly incompetent loser also.  I have never lost 26 bets in a row.  And, I presume that you are also equally incompetent to answer Einstein.  Of course, I am sorry if my assumption is totally wrong.

The only person who has credentials to teach Einstein is the one who is well versed in the art of losing in races,  is the one who has lost 26 bets in a row, and is the one who has lost money to such an extent that he could have bought around 6 kgs of Gold from the money he lost!

Einstein,

You have been trying to find answers to your question as to why punters lose. Let me try to answer it. When any punter makes a selection based on weight handicapping, timing, distance, etc; which are parameters that attempt to measure the past performance of a horse,  the underlying assumption is 'all other things remaining the same' but they are never the same................Hence the uncertainty and failure.

Some time back ther was a discussion on this forum wherein the participants felt that a win strike rate of maximum 40 % was possible. That means the selection fails 60 % of the times. Now, it is very difficult for a punter to pinpoint a particular factor as the reason for the failure. It is mostly a combination of factors that contributes to the failure. Nobody is able to identify with any assured degree of certainty the factors that contributed to the failure along with their weightages. In a nutshell, this is the real difficulty in selecting winners or the basic reason for the failure of punters. Of course, in addition there are other reasons such rash and reckless punting, indiscipline, etc. etc.

@Chanakya sir, Sun and Glasgow Prince

I am sorry to say but i don't want to get into creating my own system on ratings. I prefer going by the official one. My elderly punter guide has given some tips regarding that. He says that ratings help only in higher category in races rated at 60 and above. In lower class that it is is not of much use. He was proven right in many races of lower category.
He has taught to follow certain trainers, jockeys and trackwork in races for youngsters.
On big race days, he has tipped me to follow certain trainers and riders.
In races in which trainers have more than one entry to keep an eye on the other runners. He calls them as doosras. He caught a few in recent Mumbai season. One of them was ridden by a foreign rider Leigh Roche. I am not getting the name of the horse. Big odds of twenty to one and four to one on place.
Another tip from him to give a miss to paise favourite horses. He tips to play in place some other horse instead of the paise favourite.

That is the sort of guidance i require.

E- you want to know how punters lost  ...in-ability to judge the scenario - malpractice in the race - confused as to where to put your money on, because of disoriented mind ...Frankly there is nothing to learn from a losers experience ..you are over thinking ....but try your way ..no loss in trying to learn ....except waste of time.

@ Einstein,

 I was waiting for you to contact me on a One to One basis as per your last message.

 My method involves evaluating chances of horses in a race by comparing Computed Rating from my Ratings file with Ratiings assigned by Handicapper which I call  as Official Rating the other one being Computed Rating.

You say you follow Original Vel and IR.Com.At both places you find Selections 3 or 2 depending on the number of runners in a race.This information is there with all Punters but you have to make a choice among 3 or 2 as the case may be.

If you look at selections of tipsters like Cole,Original Vel you can observe they mostly go by who is riding the horse and finally there will be lot of commonality in the First Choice when that happens the horse is quoted Evens OR Less than Evens.If tipsters are divided then one can expect better odds but if we zero in on another horse in Evens scenario you can get 3 to 1.Now if you have your own Ratings system then you may be rewarded better.

So the choices from Race Book OR IR are only Final Outcome of a background analysis.My method equips you to evaluate for yourself.For this you must have access to my Excel Files.They give Computed Ratings but to improve my system you need go into the Logic used and where it fails.

Now tell me how we can continue.I suppose you know fundamentals like Handicap Races Maidens Races Terms Races for 2/3 year olds with or without Wins etc,etc

Thanks.

Einstein,

See if you find the discussions on the following threads useful

https://www.indiarace.com/HorseTalk/viewHorseTalkTopic?postId=1062232

https://www.indiarace.com/HorseTalk/viewHorseTalkTopic?postId=1062048

HP,

You must convert the - - - - to ++       :)

Einstein,

Why  punters, veterans and newcomers lose is discussed in one  of  my thread - 'Wht punters lose...' lying  in  the  archives of this  forum.

Summarising. the  obvious reason  is  wrong selection. Punters chose.leading jockey,trainer, trainer-owner-jockey combo, tipster etc. RWITC publishes a table listing  the  tips  of  newspapers & racebooks, some  follow the list. there  are  innumerable methods. The success rate of  abovementioned is  not  more  than  30  to  35% - obviously will result  in  loss.

Unless a punter has  a  good system  backed  by  a  good  strategy he  may  not  be  able  to  be a net winner  in  the long  run...

Asking veteran punters to spell the reasons for their failure is proving next to impossible"""

@Ein..

No body worships a setting sun...

@ Einstein,

I thought you will contact as per your earlier post. 
Unless you look at my Ratings file in Excel whatever I explain here will be Greek and Latin to you. I suppose you are an executive and present day executives are all computer savvy. 
In its simplest terms my method is comparing Official Rating with our Computed Rating and making a selection. Arriving at CR is best done by computer in Excel. This is the reason I said you have to my Files in front of you. 
Race books like Cole give selections but not the process. In race card they give Rating for each horse as assigned by Handicapper. Our job is to assess whether that Rating is correct based on its previous runs. This the crux of the problem. 
Thanks

@Amazonite

Asking veteran punters to spell the reasons for their failure is proving next to impossible. They all remain tight-lipped. How else to avoid the pit-falls if they don't disclose? All are willing to teach but none are keen to share their losing experience.

@Sun
 

I am waiting for your guidance in a simplified way. Please concentrate on the basics as anything more will not be understandable to me. The information that can be got from websites and racing books alone. I follow ir.com and Original Vel.

Well play with yr left or right hand ..in racing yu will end a BIG minus..No one has seen a winner and a loser is never seen in a race course after a certain period.A race course is a place where yu will see new faces every year,

Einstein.

Thank you for the acknowledgement.

@Amazonite

Spoken well, sir. Your soundings are as good as your advice to stay away. I am glad somebody is honest enough to admit to having strayed and ruined his what would otherwise have been a glorious career. I want this brute honesty but all are shying away. None are willing to share their reasons for failure. What was the mistakes they made and if they were avoidable.
I admire people like Chanakya sir and sportive Sun, diplomatic Glasgow Prince, Professor of racing Indian-Turf-record, assassinator Raghavan, big-time ex-punter Buddy and you sir for being candid. Only fakes like Foolish-But-Clinging-Around-Punter puts me off.
I am not seeking any magic formula to make big bucks but rather my aim is to enjoy the thrill of this adrenaline-rushing game and if possible, improve my racing skill with guidance from veteran punters.
Chanakya sir has been putting efforts but meets stiff opposition whenever he tries. They sort of gang-up against him. Sun has some mathematical calculations which is difficult for me to follow. He has however told he would try to simplify it to an understanding level.
As regards getting caught up and being ruined, be rest assured, I will steer clear of the path to destruction. Furthermore, my sound money-management skills will ensure my safety.
So, sir, do you think i will fall in the trap you dread?

At Einstein                                                    .      Horse racing is the most addictive  sport from time immemorial you cannot have a linient view on this game.race course is neither a  pleasure hunting ground nor a place for merry making,as they say habit in infancy becomes customary in nature. You are there on your own volition. to make a fast buck.people like you who are still in their nascent stage of racing need to deliberate the pros and cons before taking the plunge.on the surface it all looks hunky dory but the moment you go deep it is virtually a whirlpool eventually getting entangled in the web of debts, inaccessible to dear and near ones deprived of livelihood,isolated and a sense of alienation starts to creep in.i have seen people coming to chill out a Nd freak camouflaging as revellers to end up being hardcore punters only to be impecunious.this is the state of affairs of the young crowd.to attain some degree of racing knowledge  it takes nothing less than 2-3 years.it doesn't happen overnight.tread the path very cautiously.I am no paragon of virtue to preach you having ruined my illustrious career for the sake of racing.take this as a wake-up call before anything goes haywire. Just being empathetic  to someone like you.it is up you to perceive.

Look I am against record books to study/handicaap in today's time - about demand for old record books ,not a believer in that too - but your passion I believe in that - one should be passionate have one passion or more..

Some here disbelieve me too when I talk on racing matters -its okay with me - I have to live with myself ..if I lie I will bring my own level down ...in my own eyes/mind ....so will never do that ....error in judgement that's different.

ITR -  Call centers & Decades old record books cannot see any connection, Never heard of anyone asking or supplying indian racing material to agencies abroad - Anyway all stud farms will have the records of their product and maybe of other stud farms too - A call to the clerk there will do the job - old race calender having a collectors value  -GP might know more about such fantasy trade ...my old books all thrown in the dust-bin decades back ...put in the place it deserves to be ,more so in todays time- if you are earning from old record books...good luck - I don't even want to know about it. Not my area of interest.

@Sun

That sounds like a good idea. I would like you to concentrate only on the basics as i do not wish to become an expert. I treat it only as a weekend pleasure in the company of friends made at the race course.

The plight of my elderly punter guide makes me aware of the pitfalls if pursued long term. I do not want to end up like him,

From the interactions with many punters i can make out they are all losers in this game. That is quite evident from their talk.

I shall contact you soon.

All peti punters don't play to win -they do lay bets too always a mixture of lay and play - more then 50% of my bets were lay bets - not just the favourite even horses which were 4 and 5 to 1 -  credit bussiness / lay bets big betting all those depend on trust factor ....monday's account need to be cleared ofcourse on certain mondays you can call for bit more time - but the more fluent you are with your settlement the more smoother/fair transactions will happen on raceday ....while betting.

@ Buddy

       Why do many big MNC have call centres in India ? Is it that the Yanks and the Brits don't know how to answer a telephone ? No. It is because of the differential in wages structures.

        There is demand from abroad for information about racing and breeding in India and there are hardly any "suppliers". You people are impressed by a claim of a punter winning Rs. 1.6 lakhs over three months. That comes to Rs. 6.4 lakhs in a whole year. I can assure you that a qualified person, having the requisite reference material, can easily make twice that amount, totally risk free in a year by supplying racing information to agencies abroad..

         Old books also have a "collector's item" value. I know of a man in England who paid GBP 150 for a RCTC Racing Calendar of 1934.

          All I want to say is that if you are giving away your old books, do please speak to me first. I will pay good money, cash down, if they are of the requisite vintage.

 dear Sun,

Thank you  very  much for the appreciation  and  the congratulations for posting  a  topic  which  attracted ateention  of many. But  the  actual  credit   must  go  to  my  well-wishers and 'not  so well wishing'  critics; becuase while  my  contribution  was  not  more  than  15  to  20% their  combined  contribution was  more  than  80  to  85%

However, on  behalf  of  them  and  myself,  I  accept  with gratitude  your congratulations  which combined  togather  has  crossed 340 postings  and  may  reach close  to  350...

Yes, during  these  interactions  we  learned  many  things about  racing and  loosely connected  subjects needed for diversion  and  entertainment which  is  a  pre-requisite  to  continue  any  discussion which  may  become  dry  & drab  if  not  injected  with  these ''drugs'

But I must  tell  you that  I've  been  experimenting  on various  methods  and  systems since  late'90's. Betting  on  a  single  race  of  the  day, increasing  the  etting  unit  after  every  win and  so. All have  given  me positive  ROI but  the  current  system  gives  me  better 'returns'...

As an  example I'll reproduce  one of  my  post  from  my  blog  of  2009

12/22/2009

why punters lose money

Why punters do not win much at races ?

Because they think that the money they bet is their money and their decision (selection) can not be questioned (correct)…
Their thinking is right, because it is their money – but their decision/(s) may not be right…

I keep experimenting on my handicapping methods and introduce them in an innocuous way to the racing ‘pundits’ occasionally. I did it on IR.com during 2004/2005 and 2007 and also on IHRB forum during summer 2007…
I offered tips on Turfparrot.com under this plan in March/April 2008 and if someone among you would have believed in my ‘handicapping ability’ he would have won more than Rs. 1,30,000/-…

How ?

I started with Fleeting Arrow(3/1) on 29 Mar08 followed by Noble Prince (5/2) on 30 Mar08 and then on 5 Apr08 selected Absolute Reality(7/2) followed by Dancing Glory (16/10 – 20% = 13/10) on 6 Apr 08…

Only one tip for the day with unambiguous opinion…

A ROLL of Rs. 1000/- on these 4 tips will give a return of more than Rs.1,36,000/- (10% tax) or Rs.1,23,000/- (26% tax) within 9 days…

Sometimes, following others( stupid blabbers) also pays…

The  point  I  want  to  make  is  that  betting  strategy  takes  different  routes and methods - correct  one  will give  you  a positive  ROI and  wrong  one  will  send  you  to  doom. Finding  out  the correct  handicapping  system  backed  by  a 'good' betting  strategy  will  give  a  punter  better returns than  betting  as  per  conventional  rules...


 

 dear Sun,

Thank you  very  much for the appreciation  and  the congratulations for posting  a  topic  which  attracted ateention  of many. But  the  actual  credit   must  go  to  my  well-wishers and 'not  so well wishing'  critics; becuase while  my  contribution  was  not  more  than  15  to  20% their  combined  contribution was  more  than  80  to  85%

However, on  behalf  of  them  and  myself,  I  accept  with gratitude  your congratulations  which combined  togather  has  crossed 340 postings  and  may  reach close  to  350...

Yes, during  these  interactions  we  learned  many  things about  racing and  loosely connected  subjects needed for diversion  and  entertainment which  is  a  pre-requisite  to  continue  any  discussion which  may  become  dry  & drab  if  not  injected  with  these ''drugs'

But I must  tell  you that  I've  been  experimenting  on various  methods  and  systems since  late'90's. Betting  on  a  single  race  of  the  day, increasing  the  etting  unit  after  every  win and  so. All have  given  me positive  ROI but  the  current  system  gives  me  better 'returns'...

As an  example I'll reproduce  one of  my  post  from  my  blog  of  2009

12/22/2009

why punters lose money

Why punters do not win much at races ?

Because they think that the money they bet is their money and their decision (selection) can not be questioned (correct)…
Their thinking is right, because it is their money – but their decision/(s) may not be right…

I keep experimenting on my handicapping methods and introduce them in an innocuous way to the racing ‘pundits’ occasionally. I did it on IR.com during 2004/2005 and 2007 and also on IHRB forum during summer 2007…
I offered tips on Turfparrot.com under this plan in March/April 2008 and if someone among you would have believed in my ‘handicapping ability’ he would have won more than Rs. 1,30,000/-…

How ?

I started with Fleeting Arrow(3/1) on 29 Mar08 followed by Noble Prince (5/2) on 30 Mar08 and then on 5 Apr08 selected Absolute Reality(7/2) followed by Dancing Glory (16/10 – 20% = 13/10) on 6 Apr 08…

Only one tip for the day with unambiguous opinion…

A ROLL of Rs. 1000/- on these 4 tips will give a return of more than Rs.1,36,000/- (10% tax) or Rs.1,23,000/- (26% tax) within 9 days…

Sometimes, following others( stupid blabbers) also pays…

The  point  I  want  to  make  is  that  betting  strategy  takes  different  routes and methods - correct  one  will give  you  a positive  ROI and  wrong  one  will  send  you  to  doom. Finding  out  the correct  handicapping  system  backed  by  a 'good' betting  strategy  will  give  a  punter  better returns than  betting  as  per  conventional  rules...


 

Maintaining Records books,past performance of years are useless /obsolete -  It will make a betting man more Crazy - there is enough past performance on 'indiarace' that's more then what you need - Record books have been a thing of the past from over a decade now -  its crazy to maintain record books in today's time.

Einsten,

 You  may  be  right I believe  in  constructive and informative as  well as  logical criticism which  helps a  person  to  correct  his  mistakes and  improve knowledge and  understanding  of  the  subjet  or  the topic. One Vijaykumar  in  previous topic- betting  strategy  part I has rightly  said that  there  will not  be  a  debate  if  everyone  agrees to  a  point.  dissents  and  disagreements  enliven  the  debate  further...

Very  true. Dissent  and disagreements improve  the  interest but  selective  and  always biased highlighting  the negative points  which may be  factual  but  shows  the  true  colours  of  a  person and  his  background. I have  lost  26 bets not  in  a day  but  spread  over  4  days, while  my  reference  may  be  10 consecutive  losses  in  a day( loss  of  13 betson 1/3/20  is an exception, not  a rule). I know  a  very  famous and  good  tipster (no  names) also  had  a  big  streak of  losing  bets which  he  had  publicly admitted.

I and  Sun have  exchanged more  than 15 posts  in  this  thread. Same  is  with Glasgow Prince. I had  disagreemnts  with  both  of  them on  many  points  or  issues but none  of  us  tried  to  pull down  each other. This  man  and  few  others  are  just  opposite. I can  understand  others  because  of  their  perennial losses have  made  them  bitter and  loose  common sense against  perennial  winners but  this  man  is  a 'record  holder' who  has  never  posted selections to  prove  his  credentials.

Therefore, he  must  be  unbiased.But look  at  the 'selective'  bias. He  dug  out  my  losses on  27/2/20 on  Bangalore  races which  were  not  posted  in  the  'heading' and  adding  it  to  another losses of  3 days  upto 5/3/20 came  up  with  a factual  figure  of  loss  of 26 bets 'over  4 days' and  goes  in 'silent' mode  over  my  wins on subsequent days 8/3/20 (+4 units) and  12/3/20 (+13 1/2 units) - 2  days  wins  offsetting  almost  70%  of  the  loss  of  previous  4  days..

Do  you  call  a  holder of  these  kinds of  records  an impartial, honest, unbiased ITR or  a  partial, clever and  dishonest with  a  bised  mind to  score  some  brownie  points  which a  fraud tries  and  fails  most  of  the  time but  succeeds  once  in  a  while...

Think  over  it...

My story wont change mr tote -you are asking me to repeat what I have told you10 times before -looking for some discrepancies -  now when I Say my average bets were around 70 grand I have no way of being sure of that in the long run - bets would be 1 or 2 lacs or sometimes 50 grand, sometimes even during tose times 2 or 5 grand to have an interest in the race.

The thing is if you are winning betting big /bigger amounts is no big deal its money coming from races being ploughed back in for bigger gains -ofcourse you then run into abad phase -its time then to reduce bet amount and increase again if you get the winning momentum- momentum matters.

@ Einstein,

 I got your problem.I have no reservation to let you know some thing I know about Rating Calculations but many of HT members may get bored.

We can do it on a One to One basis if IR Admin agrees for giving my personal details OR vice versa but one post of mine was not accepted by IR in your case only.

Here there are some senior members who know Admin on personal basis.You can put in a general request here.

Alternarively you can Open a New Topic where myself and other seniors may join but you it will be an information overkill.No harm in trying at least your knowledge will improve to whatever extent it is possible.

To put it in simple terms.There are two school of thoghts.

1.Timing Analysis ie Keep record of Times clocked in previous races and estimate the chances

2.Second Handicapping based on Ratings which I did some work.

A combination will give better results but to combine there are some issues.

Aboce all this there is Intentions of Connections,Racing Strategies,Racing Luck etc All these make Selection of a horse a Sherlock Holmes mystery.

Best of luck.

Let me first congratulate Chanakya Koushik for reaching Century Mark in two consecutive posts.A record of a sorts.

In the first post we were taken  down the memory lane of Bollywood Stalwarts,the background stories of the some memorable songs with lots of old timers reeling out names of some Winners etc.

In this second post we are given an opportunity to refresh the Finance Fundamentals on ROI etc.

In my opinion ROI is Profit over Investment.In this case we can do in two ways

First  Add all Investements and Total Returns then on a day to day basis we don't say the profit is so and so units.

Second take Investment as the initial amount put aside which obviously include the amount lost during a string of failures.Here also we add all Winnings Cumulative.

Hope this carries some weight

raghavan

The larger the bet on a favourite,yu can be sure it will be made to lose/This how race betting works.Yu will notice all peti bettors in due time remain with empty pett (stomach) and peti.All khoka bettors become khokha in a short time

@CK

I get the feeling that you and Indian-Turf-Record do not like each other.
 

@Sun

I tried very much sir but still there is difficulty. You must realise that i have less than one year of racing experience.
I do not wish to become an expert in racing as i will quit once i get hitched. Till my bachelorhood days i will continue to enjoy. I like the atmosphere at the race course - the thrill, joy, rapture of every punterm which comes alive during a race. It is very electrifying.

Also sir, regarding the rating file, i feel i may not be able to put it good use. I buy the race book, check out their selections, go through trackwork, read the fleeting glance and then decide based on the rider.
There is also one elderly punter to guide me but the problem is having to get him sober.

That is the reason that i have come here to seek guidance from experienced punters like you and some others.
If you can simple explanation then it will be easy to follow as your present one is difficult to grasp.

Is it possible, sir?

HP

Take the smiley into consideration and everything will fall in place!

GLASGOW  PRINCE,

I consider ROI as  the profit  or  loss on  my  betting in  terms  of  money  won  or  lost. Your  point  is  technically  correct that  it  should  be  taken  as  a ratio. Ok. Agreed. Now  my  strike  rate for  Mumbai  is  ~ 35% ( with  a  max of  56% and  a  minima  of  22% ) with  a  roughly  unit  wins  of  75 while  for  5  days  of  Bangalore it  is 33% while  win  is  24  units. 35 % 33 average  gives  a  strike  rate  of  34%.

Now, somebody- I don't  recollect  who but  must  be  one  of  my  wellwishing critics who  jumps  in and  out at  their  will;  has  calculated  that my  betting was  on  160  races  during  the  period.  Taking  it  on  face  value and  deducting  my  misadventure( -13)  at  Mysore(1/3/20) & Kolkata (-2) I'm  left  with  83 plus units. Let  us  bring  it  down  to  80  units to  satisfy( to  make  them  happy?)  the  naysayers...

betting unit  2000;  bets 160; Investmet  3,20,000; return  1,60,000

what  should  be  the ROI ?

Einstein,     your  17/6,   6.10PM

I differ  with  your opening  sentence. ITR is  NOT ' one  of  the  most  informed punter' .   He  is  a  punter  and  certainly a  'record holder'  of  last  50  years' result racebooks. I also  have last  30  years result  books, I rarely use  them since  many years while result  books  of 67  to  89 (almost  100 kgs) were  sold  out  in  'raddi' when I  shifted  to  a  2BHK Mumbai  'cubicle'

As I said  earlier,  records  are  used  to provide  information, evaluation therefrom, upgrading  and  improving  on the mistakes  or  errors of  past

This  recordholder(?)  brings  out only  errors or  omissions because  his  50  years  of  experience  is purely  clerical - adding  subtracting multipying etc.. Has  he  ever  gien  any  information, idea, advice, tips(?) etc. to  a  punter or  a  reader of  this  forum which  has  benefitted that  reader/punter?. If  yes they  or  he  must  come out and  prove, rather  explain  it.

Giving  1995  or  1975  results  of  a  race  with  odds  and  owners  name, if  makes  a  punter 'informed' then  then  result  book  printers  and  their  employees  are  also  informed   because  COLE?VEL employees  may  have  access  to  60's  and  70's  result books  also... 

Buddy,

Very much appreciate your idea of informing horsetalk members about the Himalayan amounts wagered by your friends.  

5 lakhs, you say per horse, sometimes even more!

With five lakhs, I think I will be able to bet at toter for five years at least.  That is the difference between a punter & pretender.  We, pretenders never desire to upgrade our  standards to that of a punter.

Whereas, I have no objection to your informative tweets, it would be worthwhile if you disclose what YOUR  bets are;  not your friend's.  I presume your friends are also well educated  and are aware of this site.  They will definitely communicate their heroics if they so desire.

So, better disclose what your bet size is after RETIREMENT.  My interaction is mainly with punters like you who has retired or punters like Chanakya who bets 2000 per race.

@lightningstrikes,

Thanks, I'll carry on. The  frustration of  losers,even  the  recordholders who  could  not make  it to  winners circle is  evident from  their  posts. They are  not  able  to  digest the  truth. Their ire  is  more pronounced  with  the  realisation  that  they  can neither  use my  knoowledge nor they  could  benefit from  my  tips scattered  in  this  forum's  tips  section...

GP

https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/belie

GP

If HP++ is a misnomer plz explain..

The word "suffer" is a bit of an intentional ambiguity

Why are the veteran punters squabbling frequently?
Can they not behave as per their age?asks Einsteen

But who knows their actual age,its their mental age that is speaking here..

Buddy,

I have highest appreciation for anybody who has succeeded as a gambler.  That too on horse race.

So, convey my respects to your new friend who has graduated from betting modest 500/- to whopping 5 lakhs that may even increase to 25 lakhs or more per race.

I have read about Alan Woods, Zeljko Ranogajec etc.  But, pleased to know that there are dare devil dashing bettors in India too.  

Sundar Pichai salary is in Americal dollars.  If one converts his salary into Indian rupees, there was a time when his daily salary is in 8 digits.

I have not seen them.  We can only appreciate such masters.

My association is with small time punters.  There was one bettor who used to bet 10k per race.  Now he is virtual pauper.  And bets 200 or 300 maximum 500 per day.  Yes.  Per day!  Not per horse.  Of course, say hello to him.  He will teach you secrets of betting strategy after which you can win Reserve Bank of India.  He does not expect anything for giving such entertainment.  But, of course, will be more than pleased if you offer him one or two cigarettes and also buy him one cup of coffee.  

Another person with whom I interact closely bets 2000 per horse.  He has travelled all countries in the world with his race winnings.  He is master in roll bets and lay bets also.  Makes a minimum of one million every day.

There is one more person with whom I interact.  He is betting in lakhs.  One peti, two petis, or more.  Average bets 70k per horse.  Of course he lost whatever cash balance he had and took retirement about 4/5 years ago.  Nowadays, he continues to be in retirement mode only.  But bets 3000, 6000, 8000, 10000 per horse.  And, that too for fun!

I will never be able to enter their Circle.  My bets were 1000 per race in zamana.  Now, just 300 to 500.

There are bettors who bet 100/ or 200/  per horse.  There are punters who bet in lakhs, crores.  But, inside a race course, all are EQUAL.

What I am trying to say is those guys from small bets to large big bets was in quick time - if they would have been cautious with money their bets would not have gone up fast -  point is if you keep on winning regulalry you have a lot of cash to play with - money management infact increases more when you are struggling - going level /winning little or losing ....when you win regularly you have enough spare cash lying around to worry about money management ....atleast till you run into a long bad phase.

@ Sun,

 your 15/7, 7.53pm.

G.Guest 395, joplin 376,Silve  Flame 391 _ Mumbai  rating

G Guest-385,Joplin 394 , Silver  Flame 407 - Pune rating

Mumbai  rating  failed but  Pune  rating  was correct

18 January,

race 7: Hidden  Gold 361,M Boss 354,T Tower 351. H Gold  fav  but  poor form -'pushed' trackwork therefore  bracket  was  used.

race8:GO Grace -362(race 44), Juliette -372 (race 22) & W Connected -377

But GOGrace  was winner in race  44, will have  better numerical  rating  than Juliette and W. Connected. But  note , in  race  no 44 GOG from from  2nd. at  bend became  first, Juliette  from  7th. at  bend became  2nd (minus2 1/2length) while  W Connected   could  improve  from  6th  to  4th. only -jockeys  remaining  same. Best  Performance  was  by  Juliette which  she proved  in their  next  encounter

race 9: 

Rumba  352, Exs&Ohs 336,Golden  Eclipse  344 were the  open race  choice.

Rumba,( Roman Nos.   2-8-5-7-0) 4yo running  2nd.  race of  career must  have  some  problem is  a miler  or  a stayer- pedigreewise.. Golden Eclipse is  a  better  stayer but running  at  wrong  distances.

Rumba a  'got abroad' from  12th  positin  to  a  non-decript 8th  position  is  giving  better Rating  than  other runners , is trained  by Shroff who  is  also  a  part  owner had  all  the  credentials. The only drawback  was  second  career  run at  this  age , therfore  was bracketed with 2&6.

24 Jan  race 7

Mystic bay 380 Chephirah 373, Mzilikazi 366, Namaqua 364 were in contention . Infact I should  not  have  bracketed  182 because  Mystic Bay  track  was  best  and  rating  was  highest. Maybe to  be  on  the  safe  side  because the  odds  were  so  good  that  playing  all 3  will still  give  a  positive ROI...   

Chanakya,

There seems to some mix up. ROI is a ratio and can't be expressed in units. Increase in strike rate does not necessarily imply reduction in number of races to be attempted. Let's  take tha case of an open race wherein your system gives out three possibilities. If your system were to select only one or even two instead of three, your strike rate will be improved. Your system suggests three horses because it can't pinpoint one. Hence improvement in strike rate wil always result in an improvement in the ROI.

HP,

If you live up to your name, you will also suffer the same consequences :) Can't place you though.

ITR,

I don't take all things seriously but strike rate is not one of them. All the same, the goal became conceivable only after the full power of the IT revolution was unleashed and many things that we could not imagine in the old days became available to us. I couldn't have achieved it anytime earlier.

@Indian-Turf-Record

You are undounbtedly one of the most informed punters which is evident from your knowledge of racing. The correct information is a big boon when some give half-baked ones.
What i am surprised is that you chose to go with Sir Chanakya's baiters when he is trying to educate on the nuances of racing. He is trying to guide us with his racing experience. That is what i desire. I do not crave for tips but guidance.
I shall welcome the same of you as i do of Chanakya sir, Glasgow Prince and Sun.
Will you do it, sir?

Derby Day Races with 3 horses bracketed

Race 3  Rani Indian (5.9) Forest Flame  (0.5) Monarcgos Zero

Rno 5 Birkin Blower Not Run Dharasana (2.2) Golden Oaks 4.8

Rno 6 Derby  A separate post Juilette (1.3) Trafalgar (6.8) War Hammer (2) Trouvaille (7)

Sorry in my earlier post I mentioned Trafalgar as Favourite not correct Quoting from memory.Trouvaille i analysed as it placed 2nd

RNo 8 Rising Brave (5.4)  Turmeric Power 0.5 Warrior Clan 0.5 Copper Queen (Fav) 0.7 Hidden Gold (Winner) (1.55)

Parenthesis means Negative

Thanks.

@Eisnstein,

I expected but I will attempt once or twice more .If you cannot follow still we will leave it. For  today we will take Derby with 3 horses of Chankya and Favourite.

The Highest rated horse is 92.So this becomes Rating at which we evaluate the chances of all horses including War Hammer.Chanakya's 3 horses are

Juliette It was a winner of Oaks.For this race my Computed Rating is 81.6 Again from my file we note Bottom Rating as 59.I suppose you know what Bottom Rating is.This 59 figure you can appreciate only if you have my file.

Trafalgar  It Won Kolkata Derby My Rating 81 BR 66

War Hammer Winner of Bangalore Derby My Rating 90 at BR 72

We take BR of highest Rated horse War Hammer as reference and upgrade other Ratings taking the Difference in BRs and Multiplying by 0.7

Juliette 81.6 plus (72-59) =13*0.7 ie 90.7

Trafalgar 81+6*0.7= 85.2

War Hammer  90 plus Zero 90 So it is Juliette and War Hammer.Now for academic interest

Trouvialle Favourite Placed 2 nd in Ram Nivas Ruia Race a Terms race for horse 4 Year&up

Trouvaille  RR 78 at BR 62 So Final Rating 78 plus 10*0.7  85 so Minus 5.

The Plaings will be same if we take Derby Card Rating of 92.

Thanks.

So unless you have my Ratings file and understand the Logic difficult to follow but believe me that the figures quoted above are from my file no adjustments to suit selections.

I know of one guy who played very small on tote max 500 bucks -- was good with his race analysis went on winning and betting bigger, ofcourse he lost also but in comparision to winning it was very less - last when I was in touch with him -from 500 bucks he was betting an average of 5 lacs per race -sometimes much more -couple of very small time punters in pune now bet an average of 25 lacs per race sometimes way more - G.P is from pune he should know about them - not a fairytale ...just different level- of success .

But most end up losing- percentage of success is way less . 2% ......approx

@ Einstein

On 15 Jul 2020, Chanakya made a statement, "I never had more than 10 consecutive losses at any time". The statement was palpably false. He forgot -- either genuinely or intentionally or accidentally; he hasn't clarified the reason -- that just about four months ago, he had run up a sequence of 26 consecutive losing bets. 

Between January and Mid-March, we had racing almost every day in India. On each of those days, on an average 50 to 60 people gave their selections on this forum. Not A SINGLE ONE OF THEM managed to lose 26 bets consecutively.

I have stated incontrovertable facts. You can call it what you like. You call him a Master. I call him a Master of Misinformation.  

GLASGOW  PRINCE,

i think  money  management  is  'inbuilt'  in  my  system because  the system  takes  care  of  many  eventualities by  its  wider  spread in  betting. To  be  more  clear i  must  point  out  that  by  betting  on every  race and  even  on 2  or  3  runneres  in  a  race  my ROI  for  15  days  of  Mumbai is more  than  70 units. While  if  I take   the  path  of  betting  on  2  or  3 races  only  with  better  creentials  of  my  choice  I get  an  ROI of  32 units. In the  first  case (betting  on  all races) my  strike  rate  varies  from  a  maximum  of  56%(on  5/1/20) to  22 % giving  me  an  average of  35% while  selective  betting  gives  a  better  average  of  more than 38% but  gives much  less profit. I therefore,  stick  to  my  first  choice  of  betting  on  all  races.... 

GP

I met yu 13 yrs back

@ Glasgow Prince

      I think, if you had taken your life-long quest for a better Strike Rate more seriously, you would have reached your desired destination many years ago !!!

The selections by Chanakya for dates 24/1/20, race no 8 & that of 8/3/20 race no 4 are suffixed with question marks.  However they won and he has included that as win bets.  He has suffixed his choices with question marks earler also.  But, completely ignored after the race.

For 16/2/20, race no 7, he has tipped no 4 each way.  The horse finished a creditable 4th in a 5 horse field.  Yet Chanakya has claimed 5/4 place odds.  Actually it should have been  loss (-) 2 units, but  Chanakya has claimed profit of  5/4-1, that is  gain 1/4 units.

Niccolini is the tip for 2/1/20.  But, the posting was at 2.06pm whereas the race was at 2.00pm. 

There is wrong claim of 5 points win on 8/3/20.  Actually the total win units as per his claim should be 3.25 points excluding the 0.8 for race no 4. (even taking into account 0.8 points for race no 4, the total comes to 4.05).

Similarly on 2/1/20, he has claimed 1 full point for his lay bet on favorite.  The favorite quoted at 18/10 and it is laughable that he has claimed 1 full point for his lay bet.  

And, Chanakya speaks volumes about common sense.  He says that a handicapper should have immense faith in his own system.  If his choice is (3,6,5) and he is certain of favorite losing, he could have played 3000 each on 6 & 5.  Instead  he bets 2000 each on 6 & 5 and eats No. 3. And claim a full pont.  The winner was at 20/1 where as the odds for laying is around 0.50 paise.

The total of 72 points gain is bogus.  It is true that he is not going for maths exam; but on that logic, he could have claimed 80 or 90 points win also.  Chanakya has to revise the total points he has gained. 

Only the odds published in official web site (or bol, vel) will be recognised.  His claim of moving odds, average odds, highest odds, printed odds  etc differing from the odds at which he played may or may not be true.  But, only the official odds will be taken to compute the profit or loss.  If Chanakya's logic to be accepted, he can inflate the winnings in every race, every day.

Of course strictly speaking one should take the dividends into consideration.   Absolutely no chance of any dispute. But, the tote dividends are computed after deducting 33% from investment;  whereas the punter has actually paid only 10%.  We have to take something that is visible.  Not notional.  

So, it is laughable that  he is questioning the lack of common sense or biased mindset when  just 10% deduction is expected.

The profit claim of 13.5 on 12/3/20 is rather dubious.  He has not tipped in this site.  And he can not, after the race, claim that he has tipped in his own blog.  So, Auditor has raised a valid objection.  On this aspect I am not siding with Auditor blindly.  I have myself expressed my reservation on that lines earler alos.  In another thread of the same name.

So, the entire profit claim is bogus.  Chanakya can scream from roof tops that he has won 1,60,000.  He has earlier claimed 60,000 & 90,000 also.  He himself is not sure about how much he has won or he has claimed. 

He can certainly question the impartiality or biased nature of evaluators.  And, scream like a mad man against those who raise valid objections.  But, the ground reality will never change.  Let 100 people support Chanakya's view point.  That is their prerogative.  

The objections raised are valid.  I will not be in any gain or loss of even a phootee kowdee whether Chanakya agrees with me/us or not.  

@GP

Why are the veteran punters squabbling frequently?
Can they not behave as per their age?
They really cut a very sorry figure. 

@ Sun

I am having difficulty in following your explanation. I feel i lack the knowldge and that may be the reason.

@ Chanakya,

18 th Jan RNo 9

Rumba Not Amenable for Analysis by my method

Miss Scarlet 1.2 Golden Eclipse 0.7 Sweeping Move 0

24th Jan Only one race with 3 horses bracketed

RNo 7  Mystic Bay 2.25 Chephirah 2.7 Mezililikzai (0.95) and Tote Favourite Namaqua 0.8

Thanks

@CK

Pay no attention to your baiters. They seem envious of you and ganging-up to discredit you. Pay no attention to them, sir. Please carry on with your wonderful take. The exchanges with Sun are meaningful than those coming in to make their presence felt. For me, you are the master!

@ Einstein,

Regarding Vulan Race analysis I need to give some background.I am convinced that by a refined Quantitative System one should be able to pick a Winner without applying factors like Draw Number for a Sprint Race,Choice of Jockey on a particular horse etc.Now there are some experts like Ruchi whose observation of run of the Race with lot of statistice from their memory can make good selections separating 2 equally placed horses but I am not capable of such fine Analysis I go blindly by Calculations refining the same from time to time.My System is 1) Have your own method of  Revising of Ratings 2) Compare the Official Rating with Revised Rating and arrive at Advantage to the horse ie RR minus Official Rating is +ve.With this background I provide the Analysis.

This is a Terms Race with horses from Handicap Race and also Terms Race with Diferences in Weights.Now we plot the horses as below.First we adjust Ratings for the 4 runners .Taking Capriscia as Reference the highest rated horse

Caprisca 59 Kg OR 109 Vulcan 53Kg 109-12=97 Magistero also 109-12 =97 Bronx 58 Kg  109-2=107 taking 1 Kg as 2 RPs.

Now our job is to Find the Advantage of each horse for the above Ratings by comparing with the Revised Ratings as per my file.For this we note that this is Terms Race with Differential Weights.I use a factor of 0.3 to upgrade Rating  RR from Handicap Race and 0.7 for a Terms Race Rating.These are abritary figures and no basis.My Ratings file gives the following RRs.Before that for this I note BR as being 100 from the race of Bronx

Now

Vulacn RR 106(H80) +(100-20)=20*0.3=112

Magistero 79.2(H80)+20*0.3 = 85.2

Caprisca 104(T99) +1*0.7=104.7

Bronx 111(T100) +0=111

To put the Final Picture

Vulcan  Rating as ran is 109 minus 12 as it is carrying 53 Kg =97 Noted above versus 112 (RR)  Advantage 15

Magistero 97 V/S 85.2  Huge Negative

Caprisca 109 versus 104.7 (4.3)

Bronx 107 versus 111 Advantage 4

I think you are finding it too boring which  is why I simply said you compare RR with OR.

Thanks.

The pen is mightier than the sword , and with every insult the pen penetrates more wisdom , carry on friend and pay no attention to boorish acts fall on you 

ITR,

I don't take everything too seriously.

Buddy,

HP is very close. 

Einstein,

If a money management technique were to tell a punter that his next bet should be Rs X but he does not pay heed to it and bets Rs 3 X or 10 X, would he be in need of knowledge of money management or discipline and control? 

If you are indeed a young, enthusiastic and eager-to-learn race goer, my suggestion would be that you should try and pick up whatever you find useful and discard the rest. If you want to know anything specific, you are welcome to take the initiative and post your topic. Those who wish to respond will do so. Nobody can be forced to respond here. Avoid getting bogged down in never ending tugs of war that keep going round and round for years because anything that keeps going round and round gets nowhere.

Chanakya,

Your 15.07.2020 12.56 pm

The need for money management is inversely proportional to the strike rate. Generally, to assess the performance of a system, the strike rate will have to be calculated over a period of time say over a season or over a year. Strike rate on a daily basis does not provide actionable data. Just to make sure we are on the same page, strike rate is given by dividing the number of winning bets by the number of total bets.

Let us assume hypothetically that the strike rate is 100 % which obviously means that every bet is a winning bet. Then there is no need for money management. As the strike rat goes on decreasing, the need for money management goes on increasing. At the other end of the spectrum, if the strike rate is 0, the need for money management is infinite.

The long term 'win' strike rate of the best of the professional tipsters is around 45 %. If somebody is playing only place bets he may be able to achieve a higher strike rate.

You have made it clear that you have developed a system that allows you to play all races and still come out with a positive ROI. All systems including yours will give a better ROI with improvement in strike rate. 

@ Chanakya,

 Re my earlier post I am limiting my Analysis to only those races where you have bracketed 3 horses saying that the horses are closely placed and hence Multiple Bets are recommended for having +ve returns.

Now 18th Jan Rno 7

Hidden Gold 2.7 Turmeric Power 0 Ms Boss 4.6

Rno 8 Gift og Grace (0.8) Well Connected (6) and Juliette (4.7) Here my system fails because all three horses's Revised Ratings are from the same Rno 44 and my system has a bias towards  Winner

Rno 9 Rumba (My System cannot Evaluate its recent Rating) Miss Scarlet 1.2  Golden Eclipse 0.7 Sweeping Move Zero.

Thanks.

@ Chanakya,

  My point is exactly that.By applying Qualitative Factors you ignored Abraxas.Like this I will give some more examples after I refresh my memory.Yes my system cannot predict a 20/1 chance which raced Unplaced in previous runs and Wins once and goes back few Classes in Handicap.My theory is if you go back far in Previous Runs even a Class 4-30 horse can beat a current 40-66 Class animal but I don't go beyond last 3 runs.Earlier I used consider at least 4 th Placed horses in their 3/4 runs now I added 5th Place also.

I plan to give analysis of some more races not by way of criticizing you but to test consistence of my new Files so don't think otherwise.

auditor,

No one has  invited  you  and  no one has  told you  to  disappear, you  came  on  your  own  and  running  away - carry on.

but  your  15/7 , 8.31pm  must  be  replied  to.

People  like  you always  ignore or  omit  the positive, correct  or favorable points  to  score a  brownie point -like  you  did my  12/3/20 ROI.  Anybody  who  has  any  common sense and  is impartial, will  always take  a  wider  and  correct  perspective  of  a  argument/point/situation and  form  his  opinion  or offerb  a judgement. You failed  in  all  the  counts and  decided  to  run  away.

I refuse  to  accept  your  biased  calculations because  you  have  no  knowledge  of  running  odds during  a  race...

@ HP++

I agree, ' in racing NORMALLY  no one  recovers  lost money' is  true  in  most  cases  but  not  in ALL  CASES. SOME ,not  many ,DO  RECOVER, if  they  hve the tenacity...

You  should  be  able  to  recognise them WITH  YOUR  ++...  

ITR, 

you  belie  your  name- you  must  change  it  to  SELECTIVEE ITR..

A record  holder uses  all the  records- previous  and  present  and  does  not use selective  parts  of  the  records. 30 or  50  years  of  record books  does  not  make  a  man wiser  or  intelligent - it  converts  him  into  a  clerical entity. Using  the  records  for information,enlightenment and help should  be the  aim  of  recordholers. 

your posting  is correct  in factual  information , but  seleciive  picking from  the  'available' information and  data shows the intention and the  motive of  a person who is  biasedand  belongs  to  the  lowly  part  of  analysts. Wider and  broad perspective using the information  are  primary  requisites  of  a  record holder before  he  places  his  facts...

Learn  it. A willing  person  can  always improve....

E- just say No - asking money for fare is one way to just ask money -probably they have money in their pocket -   Money managment what GP is trying to say is how the divide your budget into bets - odds factor comes into play -eventually manage to come out plus even if its a mixed result of win n lose.. just guessing

@ Sun,

your15/7, 1.50pm,

for  Mumbai  races  I try  to  use the  values my  choice  has  achieved  in  Mumbai races and  ignore  their  Pune  values which  sometimes  makes  me  lose. In  the case( Mumbai race 87)  you  referred my Mumbai ratings  were C.Lamour -344, Abraxas -334+++( for  7th. position),P Shining-346+++'

but  Pune  ratings  were : 354, 362 and 350 for  the  three. Ignoring  this I selected  12-10 and  lost. The  main  reason  of  ignoring  Abraxas  was a 'no whip' rider in  draw  no  10. These mistakes  have  happened  earler  and  may  happen  in  future  too but  my  aversion  to  'no whip' rider  will perhaps  remain...

your  15/7 , 2.55pm,

I don't  think  I've  asked  you  to  give  your  returns. Ignore  it  if  I   asked. 

Except  the  classic  or quality  horses very  few  of  them  maintian their  form. Perhaps  more  than  90% of Indian active (~ 3500)  runners show a  sine  wave cycle - up-> down->up->down; during  their  career. Other  parameters are  required  to  home  onto the  clever  one. Discarding  a  runner  who  has  not  done  anything  in last  6months  or  one  year and  latching  on  to  current  fancy has disabled   the  punters  to  catch   a fluke  or  better  value  winner...

I don't  fllow conventional  laid  down rules  or  beliefs...

Einstein,

your  15/7, 12.59 am,

Using  'veteran'  in horseracing  for many older racegoes/punters  is  perhaps a  misnomer. A punter  may  be  going  to  races  for  35+ ,40+ or  even 50+years , but  their  experience  is  only 1yearX35, or 40 or50 times. If  they  could  not  improve from  a  minus ROI to plus ROI they  don't  deserve the  tag of  veteran but  must  be  called old  or  older  punter/(s).    

@G.P.,

your  14/7, 6.46pm

I think these veteran who  lose  regularly, only want  to  encash  their  so  called long  experience  in the  field without  trying  to find  faults with  their  system. Perhaps  they  are  beyond  help...

G.P was depending on my memory seems to have failed me - okay geve your age if its okay with you -  another guess between 75 / 80.

@ Glasgow  Prince

    To add to my earlier posting. Chanakya's losing streak of 18 consecutive races comprised 26 straight losing bets. 

Auditor,

You are doing an excellent job.  

There were people who were doubting/questioning  his profit claims; but were satisfied with his lies or evasive replies.

Chanakya usually bets at odds that are 0.40 units more than what is advertised.  He is also a roll bet master  And he without any mercy to bookies eats favorites.  That is favorites that will lose.

Chanakta will surely come with many lay bets, roll bets etc that had fetched him much higher profits.  But he has claimed only 1,60,000/-.  His unclaimed profits add up to several millions.  

Hope, Chanakya will at least give you a proper answer.  He has taken a royal oath that he will no longer reply to me..  

Auditor,

You are doing an excellent job.  

There were people who were doubting/questioning  his profit claims; but were satisfied with his lies or evasive replies.

Chanakya usually bets at odds that are 0.40 units more than what is advertised.  He is also a roll bet master  And he without any mercy to bookies eats favorites.  That is favorites that will lose.

Chanakta will surely come with many lay bets, roll bets etc that had fetched him much higher profits.  But he has claimed only 1,60,000/-.  His unclaimed profits add up to several millions.  

Hope, Chanakya will at least give you a proper answer.  He has taken a royal oath that he will no longer reply to me..  

HP++,

There are many "YES MEN" to Chanakya's profit clams.  Let there be one or two doubting Thomases too.  

He has taken a royal oath that he will not reply to me.  All right.  I will not lose or gain anything whether he replies to me or not.

Auditor is giving Chanakya a dressng down.  If Chanakya has any self respect, let him reply to Auditor.  

@GP

What to tell the punters who come asking for fare for their way back home? They obviously lack money-management skills and fall prey for that shortcoming.
My humble request to you to take the lead in getting the veteran punters to state their racing experience and why the failed, if they did.
That will be of immense benefit.

@SUN

When are you going to explain the reasons for the victory of Vulcan? I am waiting sir!

@CK

Oh, my. What is happening? Suddenly droves of people attacking you. Why. sir? Seems like a free-for-all is in the offing. Are you going to wear them down or eject?
 

buddy
GP has yet to cross 70...but looks just 50.Yu have crossed 60 but need to slim down..

By  the  way, what  are  you  doing  here? I don't  recollect  any  contribution -  positive  or  negative  by  you."""says Chanakya

the only positive is in my name which says HIGHLY POSITIVE++

In racing normally no one recovers lost money be it in 70 or 90 years.This is what I wanted to tell Raghavan

Now I understand yu are an exception.Raghavan shud take a note of it..and shud accept it

These are my other observations on the subject:-

 1.    Positive claim for MUM 12 Mar cannot be accepted since the selections  were not posted on this forum.

 2.   Some of the selections posts were received by indiarace after the scheduled time for the first race. For example, Nicollini's race was at 2.00 p.m. The selection was received by indiarace at 2.06 p.m. The forum can
 

decide if such posts are acceptable.

3.  MUM 24/1. Selection for Race 5 was 6 ?? and for Race 8 was 4 ??.  Convention that ?? indicates a race to be discarded has not been followed.

 4.  MUM 2/2.  The claim is inflated.

5.  MUM 26/2.  The claim is inflated.

6.  MUM 8/3.   The claim is inflated.

 I have other assignments and I will not be visiting the forum in future.  However, I am giving the detailed working for MUM 8/3 to show my method of working.

 MUM 8/3

Race---Selections---No. of Bets----Winner---BOL Odds---- Positive Return incl. investment

          1           (763)              3                   3               9/4                     325

          2           (312)              3                   1               6/4                     250

          3            65                 1                    7

          4           31 ??

          5           (41)                2                    4              3/1                     400

          6.           237               1                    2              9/4                      325

                       Total Positive Returns incl. investment  -- + 1300

                       10 bets                                                       - 1000

                        Tax                                                            -    100

                        Net Positive Return + 200 or 2 units.   Return claimed 5 units and                   hence is infld.

THE AUDITOR

@ Chanakya,

18th Jan RNO 5 Your bracketed horses and Winner if not among them

Golden Guest 2 Killary Bridge  0.9 Joplin 5.5 Silver Flames Winner 2.8 

Joplin Odd man out paid Rs 75 for Shp.

auditor,

I think that You  are nobody  but  one  of  those 2 so  called  veterans who  felt  slighted by  my  earlier post.

I did addition and  subtraction  manually not  with  calculator. There  could  be  small error  here  or  there- In  fact  it may  be  more if  I add lay  bets. I'm not  appearing  in  a  math  exam to  worry  about  these  aberrations.

I've  given  closing  odds of  Bol just  to  avoid naysayers  arguing  that  I'm  claiming inflated  returns. anyone  who  has  little  experience  of  betting with  bookies  knows  that running  odds  are  different than closing  odds and  punters  bet  at  different  odds  in  the  same  race- some  get  more  some  get less but  rarely  anybody  bets  at closing odds- they  are  reference pointsonly.  You  don't accept  it  I don't  care.

Your  knowledge  about  2000 type  punter  is  also  poor. Not more  than  1 or  2%  punters  bet above  5000, 10  to  15% bet   500  to  2000;  rest are  all totepunters  who throng  the  ring  to  find  out  the  movement  of  odds to decide  their  bet at  tote...

Furthermore  you are  a  flier or  closely  connected with one which  is  evident from  your  scorn  about  'ground  staff' ; they  also  reciprocate  their ire  against  these semieducated  persons.

You  are  also wrong in misreading  the 'action' There  was  no  action  in  India- all action, fights, deaths  'disfigurement' was  done  in  east  Pakistan  by west  Pakistani  soldiers. Many  of  these  ground duty  staff did  go  to  Bangladsh  after  liberationi n  choppers and  transport  aircrafts mostly  for  duty  and  some  for  sightseeing...

I don't  want  to  discuss operational  matters  here but I'm  sure that you don't  know what  happened  exactly  from Tezpur  because  you  were never  there  at  that  time...

No more  digression from main  subject....

@Chanakya,

I missed a point of your post asking me to give my return.Let me clarify entire Mumbai season I did not analyse race after 1st Week of November.

What I want to see is  those races where you have given 3 choices I would like to know whether  my Quantitative Method works without any need for applying Qualitative methods.If a horse does not finish atleast 5th in the last 3 outings I don't analyse except in a Classic OR Terms Race.

Hope I am clear.

@ Glasgow Prince

    Request you to take Chanakya's "I never had more than 10 consecutive losses at any time" with a bagful of salt.

   He had 18 consecutive losses as under:-

   Bangalore 27/2 - Last four races

   Mysore 1/3        - All eight races

   Cal 4/3               - Two races he tipped

   Mum 5/3             -  First four races

    Proof of his selections available in HORSE TALK and Results Archives of this section.

@ Chanakya,

Yes you indicated 3 horses with a remark that Favourite will fial but for picking Winner you had to look at Qualitative Parameters.What I am saying if your Quantitative method is correct no need to apply Qualitative Factors.

Second the my request was to list  the Open Races for my Quantitative Analysis.Anyway I look at you post and note down

Now 9th Jan Rno 7 My method gives the following

Cest Almour  -1.5  Gold Member -1.55 Perfect Shining Not Analysed as it did not even come 5th orevious 3 races

Winner  Abraxas  -0.8

Of course I may not be correct in all races

Thanks.

Buddy,

You feel I am 80+. I think you are having fun with me :) because that is what you said you are here for.

Einstein,

Everybody knows how much money he needs for return fare and other sundry expenses. Despite this if he doesn't keep aside that amount, then my understanding is that what he needs is discipline or control, not money management. I presumed that we are discussing specialised knowledge here related to horse racing. Will come back about the rest. 

GLASGOW  pRINCE,

 your 13/7, 10.44PM

Money  management  is  an  important  factor , no  doubt.In  my  opinion  a  capital  of  20  to  25  times  the  normal  bet  is  sufficient for an  efficient handicappping  and  betting  system.In my  betting  career  I never  had  more  than  10  consecutive  losses at  any time.

Could  you  exemplify how  strike  rate  is inversely  proportional  to   money   management. It  will  be  cumbersome  to  go  to  past but  considering  the  current  season I  find  that  my strike  rate varies  between  57%  to  22%(leaving  aside a 0%) giving  an  average  of  about  35%. Even  with  this  low  percentage  my ROI is  quite  reasonable.

I hope  you  will  elaborate  on  strike  rate.

HP++,

You  don'have  to  worry  whether  I'm  75  or  85 . I've  said  many  times  earlier that  I've  recovered many  times  over  my  losses of  70's,80's and till mid90'. by  changing  modifying, improving my  system  and  strategy. The  proof  was posted  on  this  forum between 2000 to  2010 but  was  deleted  as  per  the  policy of  the  site. But  some of them  are  still  available  on  my  blog. If  you  get  time  find  out..

By  the  way, what  are  you  doing  here? I don't  recollect  any  contribution -  positive  or  negative  by  you...

@ Sun,    your 14/7, 7.53PM

Yes, I'm referring  to Mumbai race  no  70  of  2/1/20. I had  given  (365) with  a  remark  open  race  favorite  will fail. As per  my rating  they  were having  numerical  value as  342, 350 & 347  on  a  scale  of 400. 

Why  should  I say- 'fav will  fail'  was  due  to  astro aspects. Race time  was  4PM, Moon  was  making an  exact  aspect  of  72degrees with  saturn at  4 .04PM, which  is  a  bad aspect and  will  affect  the  favorite and it  proved  correct.On  numerous occasions  these aspects  have  helped me.

your  15/7,  8.09AM,

You  have  asked  me  to  give performance details of  'open' races. Here  they  are  for  Mummbai  season  from  29/12/19 to 12/3/20. 

29/12 - race  no3 & 5 -return(net  win) - + 6 1/4, 

2/1/20 - race  no 5  - rerturn                     + 18 

5/1/2-   race  no  6      return                     + 4 1/4

18/1/20 -  races  no 5,7,8,9 (loss)             - 2 1/2

24/1      -race  no  7    return                     +3

23/2/20 -       races  no  3 & 4   return          +3

26/2-       races  no  2 & 3   return(loss)     - 6

5/3/20 - race  no  3 -   retuen(loss)            -3

8/3-   races no 1&2      return(loss)           -1/4

12/3 -   races  no 5&7  - return( on  my  blog)  + 12 1/2

FINAL  RESULT:

  GAIN - + 47 UNITS .    LOSS 11 3/4 (=12)   UNITS

NET  GAIN  35  UNITS - only  from  Mumbai...

 Now you  may apply  your  system  and  find  out what  is  the  compatibility of  your  system  with  my  rating  system.

Don't  share  your  formula, share  only the  results...

E- Glassgow. must be around 80+ yrs now same as chanakya's  -both 20 yrs elder to me - The reason for loses come from many angles -  GP can explain it better then anyone else.

@ Chanakya My first point was a simple one. That the figures given by you did not add up to MORE THAN 72 UNITS. You have not commented on that. If I get your other part right, you are now contending that by getting better than closing odds, you are compensating for 10 % tax. You cannot prove this and so it cannot be accepted as a part of your proof. My points against it :-

1. You yourself have suggested BOL/VEL as the authority. Now you cannot go against that. 2.  Every punter will agree that he does not always get the best odds. To claim that over about 160 bets you always got the best odds is hard to accept. I doubt if any senior punters will back you on that. A Rs. 2000/- bet punter is a "faltu" in the ring at Mumbai and Pune and no bookmaker is likely to hear his shout when the mad scramble for best odds is on. @ Raghavan

I would like to point out that your "friend" is not an ex-Army man. He is ex-Air Force. In Air Force, only the pilots are real fighters and heroes. They are to be saluted. The ground staff are all non-combatants. That is why they envy fighting soldiers and make untrue claims of bravery. Your "friend's'" false claim of taking part in 1965 operations has already been exposed. I will now expose his claim to having seen "live missiles being fired" and "disfigured and dismembered bodies" in 1971. Tezpur, located north of Bramhaputra, did not see any enemy action in 1971. So no mutilated bodies .MIGS took off from Tezpur and fired missiles in Dacca 600 kms away and your "friend" saw them sitting in Tezpur !

@Chanakya,

  You can give some more examples of open races  where you had to apply Qualitative Parameters to pick a Winner.I will try to show whether a Correct Quantitative Approach eliminates the need for looking at Qualitative Parameters.Unfortunately I can only provide the final Advantage/Disadvantage numbers because calculations are based on my  Excel Files of Computed Ratings which cannot be shared here.

I shared Analysis of some races with Glasgow Prince where I also  shared Mumbai Ratings File One Race was RNO 145 on 16th Feb won by Palomar apart from few Classics which you may see.

Thanks

@GP

A veteran punter Buddy speaks highly of you and you must forgive me for addressing you as 'so-called expert'. It was no way meant to be deragotary but to give vent to my ire for you disregarding keeping money aside for return fare and evening expense as part of money-management.

Coming to veteran punters not wanting to share their 'miserable' experience is something difficult to digest. Why can't elders be candid and honest? What stops them from doing that? Is it the fear of getting ridiculed like it happened in the case of Foolish-But-Still-Hanging-Around-Punter(SSPP).
Look at his latest posting. What a spin he has given for losing 2L by the next dusk. Does he think we are all fools? Why is he trying to take everyone for a ride by pretending to be very caring when he practices deception in reality. Please read his latest topic posted to get a gist of what I am trying to say.
One more Holy Joe( Raghavan) supports him solidly and oddly enough, has problems accepting the claims of a winner(Chankya). Why this duplicity by some elderly punters?
We yougsters would like integrity and honesty to be in the fore-front. Is that asking for too much?
You seem a honest person and I would like you to start a topic on why punters have failed and to share their reasons for that, honestly. 
Will you bite the bullet?

@ Chanakya,

Are you referring to race won by Classicus Now 365 have the following Rating differebces Computed Rating versus Official Rating

Agrami  2.4  Laburnum  0.8 Classicus 4 from Pu94d and 6 from Pu 55d Power of Thor 1.7 Odessa 1.7

It is as much as Quantitative pick as  Qualitative pick

You have given a tough race with horses as way back as Mu 248W (Previous Seson) to MU 32C(Current Season)

Thanks.

the Auditor,

You  have  a  valid  point  but  ytou have  not carefully read the  lead  post  of  both postings. I've clearly  mentioned  that  'returns  are  as  per  the  "closing" odds given  in  BOL or  VEL'.  Closing  odds  are the AVERAGE of the last  entry  in  the  betting  sheeet of  5  or 6  leading bookmakers and  DO NOT  REPRESENT the running  odds  during  race. For  example, closing odds  of  2 1/2 may  be  the  average  of  5/2, 26/10, 27/10, 23/10 & 24/10 etc. Just  to avoid naysayers I've  used these  closing  odds. I'm  sure you  will not  presume that  I'll bet  at  23/10 and  not  at  27/10 odds which  will take  car  of  tha  10%....

Einstein,

Your post of 14.07.2020 12.03 am.

You would like to know from veteran punters the reasons for their failure and quite rightly so. The irony is that they themselves do not know the exact reasons. If they did,  they would have been able to make course corrections. I am saying this in an objective way and not a derogatory way. The most common reason you will get for failure is 'manipulations' or 'negative intent' of the connections.

@Buddy

Your so-called expert mocks the thought of saving fare for return home!

He must realise that not everyone is privileged enough of having their own tranportation.
Keeping money aside for their evening expense and return fare is an essential part of money-management. He may be thinking now of ATM cards for that, I guess!
I have no words to describe his act of ignoring the need of essential money for the reasons stated.
 

GLASGOW  PRINCE.,

Your  first  and second paragraph are  truely  correct  , except  that ' money  allotment  for  return  fare' which  made  me  smile  or  laugh at  the  truth which  many punters will  not  accept in  public.

Money  management  is ' inversely  propotional ' to  the  strike  rate is  very  true  but  how  many  punters  will 'openly' accept  it ; rather  how  many  of  them  know  what it  is?...

Gradually  I've  shifted  my  attention  from  certainty  to  'relaiability' which  is  giving  me  better returns  or ROI...

I'll explain  in  next  posting....

@ Sun,

If  quantitative handicapping  is faulty then qualitative  part can  not  offset the negative aspect  of the  result  except  on  some  occasions because  qualitative handicapping  'augments' the  quantitative  component of  analysis and  improves  the confidence of  the  handicapper/(punter). That is  why  many leaned  tipsters  on  HT's tips forum  do  tip a 10/1 or 20/1 in  their  selections  but  rarely claim  that  it will win. They  know  that  it  has  a chance but  'do  not  put their  neck out'. 

Quantitative   values  are  the  begining of  selection  process. They  are  not  the  end. They  have  to  be augmented  or  negativated  by  qualitative factors  to come  to  a  decision to  bet  or  not  to  bet. 

For  example , I'll  take the  wellknown  case  of  race  no  5  of  2/1/20 of  Mumbai which  has  drawn lot  of  flak  from  the losers community...

The selection  was :  "(3 6 5) open race, favorite  will lose"

As proclaimed many  times I use  quantitative method  followed  by  qualitative parameters - 365 were  very  close  in  quantitative analysis  or  numbers, but  the  qualitative  projections  said  that  3 (favorite) can  not  win. The choice  was  you  can  lay  the  favorte, you  can lay  favorite  and  bet  on  other two. I selected  the  second  choice - lay  & bet and  won 20  units...

Finally, if  apunter  has no  faith  or  confidence  on  his system,method,idea,concepts or  ability he  will not be  able  to  become  a  winner and  except  himself -  will blame  everyone  or  everything - which  all  the  losers  are  doing  on  these  forums since  years or  decades and  will  continue till(???)... 

Buddy,

Prakash Gosavi is a man who charges for his tips.  Of course, he had enviable track record as a tipster.  Even in RWITC site, he was regularly contributng.

I am hearing about him less and less nowadays.  May be, because of my total disinterest towards tipsters, either paid or free. 

Do not know whether he is still in business or not.  But, as a paid tipster he had a decent customer base.

In sharp contrast, the man who has written the lead post, Chanakya, once advertised that he will teach secrets of handicapping at a nominal fees.  That is 20,000 per day plus charges for his 5-star hotel accommodation & cost of his breakfast, lunch, dinner, liquor!  After seeing the mammoth response (only one), he backed out saying that such messages are posted for fun only.

Anyway, his misadventure should have helped him understand the ground realities.  But, I am not seeing any kind of maturity or improvement in him.  Still the same old Chanakya, who bombards this site with his lies, bluffs and half truths.

He was the proud owner of a blog.  Perhaps realising that his site has only one visitor (himself), he abandoned that and instead started writing in two sites.  He was frequently threatening (?) that he will quit and post his tips only in his own blog.  Anyway, after his pride balloon was punctured by me too many times, he has started posting in his own blog after nearly 7 years of neglect.

People are having soft corner towards him as he is a retired army man.  But the majesty, supreme self confidence & leadership qualities that are hall mark of army men is totally lacking in him.  Instead, his language puts a street rowdy to shame.  It is only hoped that he realises his negative side and do some damage control.

I do not have any appreciation for any tipster.  But, I also do not mock them either.  People are free to articulate their views in this or other site.  Only thing expected of them is politeness, friendly nature and simplicity. 

Punters are roasted everyday by the bookies.  They will certainly appreciate him if he interacts here without his rudeness and superiority complex.

CHANAKYA has said :- "On adding plus returns and deducting minus returns, we get from Mumbai a net PROFIT OF MORE THAN 72 UNITS."

I have two observations,as follows :-  

1. CHANAKYA has been kind enough to give his daily net returns. Adding and subtracting them,  I get a total of less than 72. I may have made a mistake so will be obliged if someone can confirm or correct it.

2. "Net" return must include tax paid. CHANAKYA's returns come from a total of 160 bets (give or take a couple of bets) and so at 10 %, a total of 16 units must be deducted from  the overall tally.

Above is based on what CHANAKYA has himself claimed.

I have observations on his daily "net" (other than tax) and also on individual bets. But that will come if it is established whether CHANAKYA's claim is valid or not. Difference, according to me, is small but there is no room for any variation below 72. In our sport, a short-head is the difference between winning and losing.

THE AUDITOR

Ok- E - no harm -keep going - good luck.

"I think you are 75 years old now.  So absolutely no chance to recover what you lost!  "says Raghavan to Chanakaya

But i will give him another 85 years to recover and wud yu think he wud recover?

In racing yu have always given not taken.

Chanakya,

Perhaps, you might have neglected your family while indulging in punting.  And you are presuming that the same is the case with all punters.  You see, three fingers are ponted towards you when you accuse others.

You confessed that you lost in race betting an amount close to 10 lakhs during 1973 to 2003.  Let me presume that the loss is 1.5 lakhs during the fist 7 years starting from 1973 till  end of 1979.  and 8.5 lakhs from 1980 to 2003.  For 1.5 lakhs you could have purchased 2.5 kg Gold during 1973 to 1979.  Roughly 3.5 kg of gold could have been purchased in the remaining 8.5 lakhs that you lost during the next 23 years.  I am being very conservative.

Now, you say, you are the winner!  A blatant lie.  Let us examine the reality of your win claims leisurely.  But, the 6 kgs of gold that you could have purchased from the money you lost in betting during 1973 to 2003 will now cost close to 3 crores.   

I think you are 75 years old now.  So absolutely no chance to recover what you lost!  

You have admitted that actual value of your loss is yet to be recovered!  

Chanakya, you understand one thing.  I will not be cowed down by your cowardly & rotten abuses.  It is really pity that an ex army officer shamelessly weeping, sobbing &  crying before each and every members of .Horsetalk, and narrating them that I am outright  unreasonable.  

I am going to expose your lies & bluffs.  But, first give your P&L statement the way you have given to Mumbai.

You may be thinking that you have a water tight case and I can not in any way prove you to be a liar.  But, first give your calculations of wins/losses on BTC races.    

I have functioned as a co ordinator to PTR games for nearly 4 years.  And, I can easly expose your lies. You preserve your bravado to some new comers in this site.

Of course, ignore this post if you are so much afraid of me.  

And remember one thing.  ALL PUNTERS ARE LOSERS ONLY.

@Buddy

You haven't understood what I am looking for. It is the experience of veteran punters. The reasons why they failed so that I can avoid doing the same. I want them to recant those pitfalls they encountered.
There are punters like Chanakya and Sun who are willing to share their winning experience. These lessons are also welcome.
Trust by now you have understood what I desire.

It is widely known and accepted that a racegoer needs to have a good handicapping system and a complementary betting strategy to be a consistent winner. I don't think anybody will have any doubts about that.

As far as money management is concerned, I would think that money allotment for return fare is not the kind of money management that is implied here. I take it tat we are past that point for this discussion. It is money management with regard to the size of bets and the capital resources that would be relevant.

My simple logic is that the need for money management is inversely proportional to the strike rate. Having interacted with quite a number of serious race goers I have realized that there are very few who mindfully focus on strike rate as the sole objective. They do not keep a record of their bets and consequently are unable to take a macro view of their betting history. They never monitor their strike rate but would like to think that it is quite satisfactory. Some are happy for having backed some long shots now and then while others are thrilled because their pedigree reading turned out to be correct sometimes. If one starts focussing on strike rate, he automatically starts eliminating suspect parameters and starts concentrating on 'certainty' or 'reliability' of his selection. 

(to be continued)

@ Chankaya,

  I did agree that Qualitative Analysis is part of Good Handicapping.However,if Quantitative Part is Faulty then people may come out with some excellent tips without knowing abc of it.There are many examples on HT but don't want to name them.They think that they have mastered Handicapping Calculations part.

Qualitative part apart from considering all aspects of Jockey choice by Trainer,Intentions of Connections etc but if Decision Making skill is lacking then all comes to a nought.On intention of Connections Glasgow Prince earlier topic has brought out in clear terms the role of that.

By Psyche of punter I mean his personality some are risk takers,some are Go With The Crowd mentality and some may be of fickle mind changing their bet at the last moment.My point has been to bet Confidently on a 20/1 chance a Good Quantitative Method plays an important role because on Qualitative Factor you are in 2 minds which trainer of the 2 horses is damn serious and wants to Win.Trainer's Psyche also plays a role.Some trainer may say "Yes I will go with my horse today even if it gets 20 Point penalty" by trying fully and Placing in a Classic race

Thanks.

@ Sun,

Yes,  you  have  a  point. using  old  English  paraphrasing I may  say that -  Handicapping  is  not  singular  but plural. It  means  it  has  2 components - quantitative FOLLOWED  by  qualitative parf. Most  of  punter/handicapper lay  more  stress on  quantitative part and  less  on  qualitative part  because  it  is  not  quantifiable. Many  times the  qualitative part decides  the final  outcome  of  a  bet - win  or  loss. Few of  qualitative  components are, form, intentions,surface condition(PNR values) etc. If  a  smarty  can quantify  them within  a  reasonable variation, he  can  be  one up  on  his  competitors.

Coming  back  to  distance.

Because  of  pedigree constraints and more importantly the  training regimen  and  the  ability  of  the  trainer - an  easy  winner  of  1200m should  win a1000m race, if  in  form. Vice versa. A  regular  winner  or close  placer  of  1000m race  has  the  ability  and  chance  to win a 1200m  race under  normal  racing conditions....

Agreed, judgement  comes  from  experience, but  there  are  many  who  with  35 years+ experience  can  not judge  correctly - what  you  say  about  them - I'll say, stop  racing and  look after your  neglected  family; I'm  not  sure  about  you...

I've  not  thought  much  about  psyche  of  a  bettor, but  I know  about  my  psyche. I've  never  runaway when  I was  on  a  losing  ground and  also  did  not  jump or  dance around  when  on  a  winning  spree - may  be  too  lazy  to  do  that!...

I had sent the name- guess din't go thru -  Prakash Gosavi -Google.

E_I liked his work explanation/tips - though I never followed anyone - like what you want to do - you don't want fish to eat, you want to learn how to fish.

@Buddy

Who is that person?

@RAGHAVAN

I am here devoting time since coronavirus has rendered us home. I have been asked to work from home and since there isn't much of workload, I am spared of time and am using it enhance my racing skills.

Your inputs on how to go about in racing has been noted and I do find them sensible but at the same time I would like to say that I AM NOT LOOKING FOR TIPS.

Sun is likely to give explanations for Vulcan's victory.

Chanakya is doing his bit.

I only want to gain from your racing experience. I am in here only for that as I am keen to know the nuances of racing.

@Sun

I am extremely with your positive response.I take it that you are rich in racing experience and shall be glad if you could teach us the calculations. I am eager to learn.
 

Raghu the tote/card master - still not replied 'where did you pay' card gambling tax -   admirers here are of no use to me - never had any give or take or personal touch with anyone even though many here wanted to meet me .

toteman at your level its natural to know only about losers - thee are different kind of circles/level in every field- at your lowest level the song you sing matches with you. We believe you are a loser!

@ Ironman,

 Could  you  explain :

'trending  in odds'.. '

good odds'

how to  calculate  your  own  probabiliy?

how it will  lead  us  to  right  horses and avoid  false  odds...

If you  have  reservations then  it  is  OK, but  if  you  know you  may  share -in full  or  in  parts as  per  youe  convenience...

Murugesh,

you  seem  to  be  a  newcomer  unless  it  is  your  pseudo name...

you  may  or  may not  confirm  -what  you  really -choice  with  you.

Get to see only hollow lectures From seniors says mr 'E'' very unfair-  there was one guy coming here giving classes charging big money -  you could have paid and if he was found wanting you could have said 'hollow lecture' -

Glasgow prince probably know's the most among the lot coming here-who's probably open to tipping/teaching for a fee , I come here for fun ..mental stimulation.

@Einstein,

 The Win of Vulcan can be predicted by pure calculations also

@ Chankya,

 Yes good Handicapping is incomplete without  Art of Handicapping.My opinion is teaching a person Art of Handicapping is like lecturing to a person on taste of Sugar hours together but the person has to taste himself what Sweetness is all about.

Just to cite an example you can say one should look at Distance Suitability of a horse from its previous runs but in a particular race there can be an exception when 1200 Mtr sppedy horse is entered in a 1000 Mtr race with other runners not so speedy OR Vice Versa This judgement one has to get only from experience and his pscyche plays a part

Betting strategy,

Ths is the third "new topic" that Chanakya has opened in recent days.  

Almost every punter is well educated.  Some upto matriculation/p u c, some graduates, some double graduates-phd holders etc.

Let him be a man earning 30k to 50k a month.  OR let him be earning 2/3 lakhs.  Or let him be  phd holder getting 7 figure salary per month.  Inside the race course, he is as good or as bad as any other punter.  Not more..not less.  This statement will hold good even if that "any other punter" is only a lht (left hand thumb).

Now let us see what the so called betting strategy means.

All betting strategies revolve around one thing.  Cut your losses.  Race betting is always harmful to your finances.  People keep money in fixed deposits.  Once upon a time, banks were paying interest of 1% per month on fixed deposits.  (12% p. a.).  Now that has been reduced to 7 or 8%.  Even then people keep in bank several lakhs to several crores in FD.  Certainly they are not fools.  And, most probably they are not punters either.

Regarding betting, I used to study the past performance of the horse, odds, trainer's merit, jockey's merit  track recod.   Not all aspects. Just 2/3 of the above five. 99% punters who study race book study this much only.  Some men with proverbial netrikkan (third eye) may try to see the chances of a fluke, some trust numerology.  Some even decide their bets after seeing the color of jockey's cap/shirt.

All are experts in their own method.  I had only admiration when a fellow punter (total stranger) proudly told me about his bet on Jezabble in Kolkata races or Jack Flash in Mumbai races.  For Jezabble he had 4 win & 4 place tickets.  (80/- bet).   Another one, for Jack flash he had 6 win & 4 shp. (100/-).  

Several thousands may collect dividends if a fav wins.  And less than 100 people may collect dividends if some long shot wins.  There is no hard and fast rules.

Some of the betting rules (dos and donts) which I consider worth following is:-

1. Bet Low.  Bet 2 or 3 races in a day.

2. Never bet on odds on favorite.

3. Always bet in such a way that even if you had long losing streak, you will not run out of cash.  So 2% or just 1% of your bank balance should be maxmum stakes.

4. Never get frustrated by 4 or 5 losses in a row and increase your bets chasing losses. Money gone in one race is gone for ever.

Happily I have survived in spite of being a gambler  for 35+ years.   I gave seen 100s of bettors who are now finding it hard to bet even 200/- in a day.  They were betting up to 10,000 in zamana.

In sharp conrast, I find Chanakya's strategy outright bogus.  He says, he bets in ALL RACES, sometimes 2 or 3 horses in one race.  There are times when he had bets on 15 or more horses in a day.  He says that it is profitable.  Let the Almighty save those punters who are following Chanakya. 

In fact Chanakya himself confessed that he lost close to 10 lakhs in 3 decades.  Thereafter he says he started winning.  We have only his words.  No body knows for certain.  For that matter every punter can claim himself a winner though that is far from real.

People who are betting up to 10,000/- are now finding it difficult to bet even 200/300 today.  We can sympathise with them  It took them several years before being compelled to bet 200/300.  If one follows Chanakya, he shall be filing for bankruptcy in less than one year.

There are some new comers in this site who are full of admiration to the likes of Chanakya & Buddy.  One advise to them.  Of course, they are free to accept or reject this advise.  Always try to locate the winner yourself.  Never care to bother what Basave Goda has tipped or what Bore Gowda has tipped.  In any case, never depend on any tipster.  NO BODY IS A MASTER IN THIS CRUEL GAME.  THE ONLY WINNERS ARE BOOKIES, CLUB & THE GOVERNMENT.

@Buddy

What are yoi suggesting?
To see from your perception, is it?

@CK

The fortunate thing is that of my aquaintance with an elderly punter. Let us say of him as a person rich in racing but not so well-off financially having lost much of his earning at the race-course. He sounds wise but you can make out from his attitude that he is presently bitter about racing. He admits rather frankly to his addiction to racing since his working days as being the cause

He is under the generiosity of his son and gets limited money for his activities - mainly racing. There are many days that I have taken care of his expenses at the race-course. But that is little compared top the 'rich' feedback that I get from him.

One example of that - the victory of Vulcan at Mumbai last season. He told me that the favourite Caprisca is not a genuine horse and that it cannot be trusted to win. He also explained that Sandesh partnered him in some big race in the past. And Sandesh was riding Vulcan who was a more genuine horse having consistency in performance and that it liked longer trips.

Those pointers were good enough for me to take a plunge on Vulcan. Needless to say, Vulcan won decisively and Caprisca ran a dismal 3d in a field of 4 runners.

It is that kind of feedback I require to enhance my racing skills.

But what do I get to see from the seniors in here - only empty and hollow lectures! Only caution and caution, as though I am going blind-folded unaware of the pitfalls.

 

Mr Chankya , I know you are a knowledgeable guy , likewise buddy the smart man , I would request u to to present more topics like this , forget your detractors as I know they are fretting and jealous of your skills 

Murugesh,

I never  become  personal in  my  first  interaction with friends or  foes or acquaintances.

why  were  you  silent  when  that thread was  alive even  on  second  page and now coming  here  after  3  days to  score  a brownie point?

I also  expect  that  you understand  the  meaning  of  every  word  of  English.

Many  or most  does  not  include  all- it  excludes few.You are  right I did  not  participate  in  '65 war  but in  '71 I was  at  Tezpur where some  Muktivahini camps  were established and  wherefrom  a MIG -21 took off to  fire  rockets at a 'high level meeting' held  in  a  bunker  of  Dhacca, 'polarising' the  west Pakistani forces based  in   'east Pakistan' forcing  them  to surrender next  day.

You are  again  wrong. I've  not  insulted the  veterans who  belong  to  'few' and  NOT  'most'  category. Try  to  understand  the  distiction  or  the  difference.

We keep  on  beating  the  drum  of  '65, '71, Kargil etc. but  we  never try  to  find  out why were  we  enslaved for  600  to  700 years which  no  other  country of  the  world has been put  to...

No  more discussion  on  'out  of main topic'  subjects   

.

E-  The good thing is you are open to learning/listening , curious and digging for knowledge  -analytical mind -   but in a open forum people won't write only what you want to know -  you said Negative/Positive -i Negative posts also have facts/truth about racing something to learn -  Positive post- people wanting to learn from web-sites according to me are negative thought process the idea is wrong -  Its about Perception - 

One needs to have enough money to play races.

@CK & Iron Man

Money management is of utmost requirement in present day. I'll give an example of poor money mangement. Many times after races a lot many have come to me asking for their fare to way back home. Imagine not even keeping money for that! One person even had the gall to ask me for his evening drinks. Can you beat that!

Mind you, they were all much advanced in age.

@ Sun,

A good handicapping  system , itself,  has two  parts.

A quantitative component  to  begin with which evaluates from  the  past  performance  the 'ability'  to  win and  is given  in  numerical value or number or  by  ratings  of  a  handicapper.

Other component, i.e. qualitative one  is  much  complex because  it  is difficult  to  convert  it  in  numerical  values..

Current form, connections  intentions, suitatability  of  distance  etc. are  few  of  them...

@ Ironman,

Yes, your  first  sentence  itself  gives  the  clue of  the failure of  the  big and  not  so  big  punters  who  follow  them. Changing  betting unit is  the downfall  of  most  of  them.

Movings  odds give  only  30or 35% success rateand  unless you win  a race  at 4/1 in every cycle  of  4 races it  will  be  difficult  to  survive  long  in  racing. Betting  on  favorites EVERYTIME  is  a  losing strategy...

@ snowdew,

I think  you are  wrong. They  are  not  explaining  the  reality - they  are  advertising  their  failures during  3  or  4  decades  of  their misadventures  in  horse racing. Any  risky adventure has  inbuilt  warning  signals  which tell  a competitor that  he  is  unfit  to  continue. Inspite  of  that  if  the  competitor  continues  he  has  to  meet  his  doom and  he  should  not  blame  the  path or  the  destination he  selected.

I also  have  similar  years  of  experience and was  on  alosing  ground in early  part of  this  game  but  realising  that the  path  selected  was  not  right  I struggled  and  worked  hard  to  improve and  not  to  give  up  like  a  coward and  blame  everything  or  every body  for my mistakes. Gradually I moved  out  of  the losers  circle  and joined  the no profit-no loss  group  of longtime  cardplayers (few  of  them  I  closely  know and  monitor). I did'nt  stop  there. Continued, improved  further and  recovered  much more  than  what  I lost  earlier in  the  begining  part  of this  risky game...

Giving up and  running  away and  not  trying  to  succeed  is a  sign  of  cowardice and  I don't  approve or  accept that...

Hallo Brij'

You opened new topic and old topic is now backpage which no one is reading. So Iam making my comments here. In old topic you say "Most of them have not seen or touched a pistol or a rifle. forget about looking at a live missile being fired. Most of them, perhaps all of them have not seen disfigured and dismembered human bodies in their life. In '65 and '71 I have seen all that."

There are many veterans on HT who have seen live action. Two of them were wounded in war and one was gallantry honour. But they don't boast and you are insulting them.

You say you have seen it in '65. You really beilieve that ? You 10710, 34 DEO, commissioned in October 1966 ? When 65 war happened you were cadet 1500 km far from real action. So where you saw disfigured bodies ? In your dreams ?l 

@Chanakya & Einstein

The biggest mistake by punters is money management (if win odds 30p..punters always increase their bet double or tribal to recover previous loss or earn decent money.).

Most punters are not aware about trending on odds &  grabbing true odd..professional players never play more than 10% portion of their bet..that's why they stay long.most punter loss their psychic at ring to watching odds..I recommend to punters calculate your own odds probability.(Google search it)..it is really helpful for finding right horses, & avoid fake odds

@Buddy

Your transformation - being positive, is a welcome change. I will eagerly svcout around for your selections.

@Snowdew

The present generation knows how to have fun and balance life. The art lies in money-management capabalities. We are not thumb-suckling kids to be told repeatedly the dangers and ills associated with racing. They ventured into this line and lost out. That is their sad fate. They need to tell us of the pitfalls that they encountered and ways to avoid. That will be welcome. Not acting ike as though we are devoid of intelligence and that they are the 'Supreme Ones'. Lecturing from them has bored us to death and its about time they stopped.

@ Srinivasan,

After going through many posts on Good Handicapping System here you must got an idea that it has 2 parts.

Science Or Calculations part quantitative part

Art of Handicapping the Qualitative part

With the permission of Admin if you can communicate your contact information I can give some inputs on Calculations part to the extent I have developed.

Thanks.

@ Einstein,

That's what they are doing, explaining the harsh reality and ultimate truth of racing to the newcomers like you - no future in racing, only disaster.

Einstein,

Long  ago when  I was  in  the final  year  of  B.Sc. I borrowed  a  book  from  college  library named 'one, two,three...infinity'  by  George  Gamow  professor of  Physics at  Colorado University,USA. In  the  book Einstein theory was  so  beautifully  explained that  an undergraduate also  could  understand it. Then and  there  I decided  to  do  my  post-graduation in  Physics and  I did  that! 

This  shows  the  power  of  words.

Coming  back  to  money  management. Yes  it is  a  very  important component  of  any  risky  venture like  racing  and  stock market  trading and I think I do have  it  inbuilt  in  my  system. To  be  explicit I feel  to  win an  amount  the  base  capital should  be  20  to  25  times  the  betting  unit. To win 50,000 a month a punter  must  have a capital of  40 to 50K. The  safety  of  capital  is  inbuilt  in  my  system. I'll  explain how. 

During  2 12 months playing Mumbai & Bangalore races on  22  days my  maximum  loss  was -10 units on  5/3/20 while  I was  in  a very  comfotable  position and  absorbed  the  loss.

Let  us  start  with  a  base  capital  of  40K. Let  us assume  that on 29/12/19 - first  day of current racing  season when I placed  bet  on  11 runners  I lose  all 11 bets resluting  in  a  loss  of  22,000. Next  day,i.e. on  2/1/20 from  first  3  bets  races  no. 1,2 &4 I've  recovered  5 1/2 units.Ignoring  the  return  from  race no. 5(+20 units) from  races  no. 6 &7 I recover 3 1/4 units  more which  almost nullifies  the  loss  of  11 units and  brings  me  in  a  comfortable position.

On  all the  betting  days  I've used  only straight  betting  for  win and  refrained  from rolling, doubling  bets  etc.  

E -money management that's important every where but more so in gambling -one tends to lose the value of money and also barganing power when dealing in other matters-   health gets neglected -  drinks become more frequent -late nights ...more eating outside - mixed company -good bad ugly comes with all betting related activites  .......

@Srinivasan,

In my  earlier  thread which  reached  more than  170 responses on  this  forum,  I've  explained  what  I  mean  by  'good handicapping system' . you  may refer  that as it  will be  difficult  to bring  out all that  here.

In my earlier  thread  on  betting  strategy I've  explained  in  detail taking  race  no  5  of  2/1/20 how  we can get  a return  of  20/1 from a  race. It gives  the  reson  why  favorite  will  fail and  why a  20/1  or 10/1 can  win. As  there  is  no  racing  for  next40  to  50  days  you  can read  at  leisure all that.

Einstein -  no one is 'duty bound' - but even then all seniors say its not the train to be on - get-off/change tracks -probably the best tip anyone can give a new comer -   now if you want to dig in deeper and find the light at the end of the tunnel-  go ahead .  I think racing will start from nov[mumbai] I will post my selection -confident it will be decent enough to atleast not lose money there should be some profit - In a mood to do that challenge.

@CK

How about money management? Shouldn't that too be an integral part!
We have one Foolish-But-Still-Lingering-Around-Punter(SSPP) who made 2l on one day only to lose it all in the very next dawn,
One self-confessed loser(Raghavan) is an utter failure perhaps due to that same reason.
One retired-hurt punter(Buddy) says he is not in the minus but does not give reasons for having quit.

Winners like you should incorporate money management as an esssential part of racing. One should learn to handle winnings wisely. Not squander it away in quick time.

No offence meant. I want positive inputs from the mentioned trio and not personal scorn heaped on me. I want them to guide newcomers like me from falling into the same trap. Being seniors, they are duty-bound do do it.
How I wish they do that.

@ Mr. Chanakya

First of all you have to explain "Good Handicaping System",because I have seen Handicaping of events.

Please select a event (in mumbai or Bengaluru) and explain (we can refer on IRC). Without explanation it is useless to understand with the numbers you have published, because it means nothing.